-
For our US members, be sure to check on your voter registration status and if you are not registered it will only take a second to do so!
Some of us *think* provisional findings will be out this week but it's not a certainty
MS said earliest time for close was early October so with a one week public feedback and at least one week for final report, just on their timeline this week should be the week.
But that was MS saying it, not the CMA
well, they have a month left on this timeline pretty much. I would hope there's some movement soon. The CMA seemed to say they hoped to have their stuff in sooner than the deadline of Oct 18. But I think they said the same thing before and they pretty much took their entire time.
Microsoft must be screaming that this is taking so long to close while we have Unity trying to kill itself right next door.
Not that Regulators would let them buy it. I have a feeling that if it came down to Bankruptcy or Microsoft buying Unity, regulators would prefer everybody lose their jobs and the product ceasing to exist over Microsoft buying a Game Engine. Even though their Developer Tooling Division is one of the most permissive, open and affordable schemes on the planet.
Knowing the CMA they'll keep this going until the very end. They'll come back like a day before the deal expires with a pass, just for Microsoft to speedrun closing the deal in like half a day.
#TeamChaos
Not that Regulators would let them buy it. I have a feeling that if it came down to Bankruptcy or Microsoft buying Unity, regulators would prefer everybody lose their jobs and the product ceasing to exist over Microsoft buying a Game Engine. Even though their Developer Tooling Division is one of the most permissive, open and affordable schemes on the planet.
Knowing the CMA they'll keep this going until the very end. They'll come back like a day before the deal expires with a pass, just for Microsoft to speedrun closing the deal in like half a day.
#TeamChaos
Ok, so Tom Warren published a bunch of documents/emails from ABK/Microsoft/Sony. There's a lot of them (8), but that one catched my eye:
View: https://twitter.com/tomwarren/status/1703757618865426905?t=1M1QTjV53NBfZA1V7WI6bA&s=19
Imo it means CMA knew about Switch 2 and plans from ABK/Microsoft to release Activision's games on Nintendo, but they were acting in bad faith when they were telling about that case.
View: https://twitter.com/tomwarren/status/1703757618865426905?t=1M1QTjV53NBfZA1V7WI6bA&s=19
Imo it means CMA knew about Switch 2 and plans from ABK/Microsoft to release Activision's games on Nintendo, but they were acting in bad faith when they were telling about that case.
OP
OP
There are 128 new documents :p Although some of them are old but with added or excluded redacted parts.
Thanks to vixolus for the link: https://files.cand.uscourts.gov/files/23-cv-02880_FTC_v_Microsoft/
I just skimmed through a few of them and there are plenty of new details.
For example (RX0079), a meeting between Jim Ryan and analysts /portfolio managers at Fidelity post ABK and Bungie acquisitions (February 2022). The questions are from the analysts, the answers from Jim Ryan:
Q: Bungie has 1,000 employees and 20-30 years of history making games. You're counting on a big contribution from them to help you with these 10 games and help you to allocate capital effectively as well as avoid making mistakes. Is that the strategy?
A: Yes, it is. I've been talking a lot over the past couple of years with our publishing partners, many of whom are slightly farther down the road than we are in terms of live service publishing. What they al have in common is that they've made a lot of mistakes on that road. And |think one of the benefits of being a fast follower inthis space isthat ifwe're intelligent and thoughtful, we can learn from those mistakes. But these partners can be viewed as our competitors and there's a limit to what they will share. Having a premier live service publisher within the group who is extremely keen to collaborate with Sony massively increases our ability to learn and our ability to avoid the mistakes that others have made.
Q: You've made it very clear that there's going to be more acquisitions to come. What is an ideal acquisition target and what are you hoping it will help you achieve?
A: I think an ideal acquisition target has to help us deliver on our strategies in a way that we're not capable of doing on our own. And when |look at our portfolio of studios and our publishing capabilities, we need help in the areas in which we're not strong at present. We aspire to grow our community, grow engagement with our games, grow the number of people who are playing those games, grow the amount of time people are spending on those games, move across to PC and mobile, and grow the number of people playing with each other. It's in these spaces, where we don't have expertise and presence, we need to build expertise. These are some of the reasons behind the acquisition of Bungie. We have publicly stated ambitions in the area of mobile. That's part of game development that we've not been present in any meaningful extent. So, you can assume that we have an interest in acquiring development knowledge and management expertise there.
Q: Did you look at Activision as a target? Was it too big to buy?
A: We know Activision extremely well. They are probably one of our principal partners. In terms of deployment of Sony's capital, when you look at 69 billion dollars for Activision compared to 3.6 billion dollars for Bungie, we believe that Bungie can give us way more than a 69 billion acquisition of Activision. And that's before considering the relative value of that particular transaction.
Q: PlayStation is very important to Activision. In the next decade, is Microsoft going to turn off their supply of games to you?
A: I honestly believe that that will not happen. We continue to talk with Activision. I talk with Phil Spencer at Microsoft. We're having good conversations. They obviously have significant regulatory hurdles that they must navigate to get this transaction cleared. And ongoing availability of Activision games on competitive platforms is going to be central for them to be successful in that mission.
Q: Given the rapid change in competition in gaming, are there some potential M&A opportunities that are larger in size that you would consider? There are some unique software assets not focused on gaming such as Unity, Roblox and Epic for example. Are those targets you might consider going forward?
A: I go back to the comment that |made earlier that a necessary condition for us to consider when making any acquisition is whether it helps us advance our basic strategy of growing our first party publishing business across multiple formats in a way that we have not in the past. And if a potential acquisition ticks those boxes, itgoes on the list.
Q: The Game Pass business model appears to have some challenges, and Microsoft appears to be losing a lot of money on it. Because the AAA publishers spend $100 mil or more on developing titles, they are happy to sell it for $70 on PS5. The subscription model is more challenging for them. Given that environment, will Microsoft need to provide minimum revenue guarantees ifthey want those titles on Game Pass? Or do they need to go out and buy more assets like Activision to put on their platform? Are those the two options for Microsoft when trying to gain critical mass and support from the AAA publishers for Game Pass?
A: | can say with a very high degree of certainty that Microsoft has tried the first path and it did not work at all. That has driven them to make the large acquisition. |'ve talked to al the publishers, and they unanimously do not like Game Pass because it is value destructive, not only on an individual title-basis, but also on an industry level. The recent number of subscribers that Microsoft announced on January was 25 million. I am sure everyone has their own views on this, but | personally was expecting a larger number given al the money they have spent. We have close to 50 mil PS Plus subscribers. We believe we have a meaningful subscription service.
Lots of new info to digest...
Last edited:
https://files.cand.uscourts.gov/files/23-cv-02880_FTC_v_Microsoft/PX1065 (Redacted).pdf
November 2020, Xbox was given approval to approach Sega for a potential acquisition, was this known? I know they had requested strategy approval and at one point we saw a good chunk of said document, but I don't think we knew they were given approval
November 2020, Xbox was given approval to approach Sega for a potential acquisition, was this known? I know they had requested strategy approval and at one point we saw a good chunk of said document, but I don't think we knew they were given approval
Yes, this one was shared earlier.
Older file has way less redactions, probably why it was taken down.
This is a pretty stark and candid evaluation on the Gamepass model. I'm sure Gampass is fine, this just lets me know only Microsoft could have weathered the investment needed to build Gamepass. Imagine your solution for improving a subscription service that's loosing money is to spend 70 Billion dollars. More than that adding in Bethesda.
Isn't that Jim Ryan? I really don't believe anything that comes out of his mouth anymore. Of course he'll tell his investors that his business model is the best.
Yeah, that Jim Ryan quote has big Ballmer "Five hundred dollars? Fully subsidized? With a plan? I said that is the most expensive phone in the world, ... And it doesn't appeal to business customers because it doesn't have a keyboard. Which makes it not a very good email machine" energy.
(Ballmer was talking about the original iPhone)
(Ballmer was talking about the original iPhone)
I mean yeah, but it's more likely to just be the raw facts instead of the spoonful of sugar he would include if it was his numbers. You gotta remember this is business, not console wars. He has a preference but not a reason to lie. Like I said it really reframes the "sleeping giant" nature of MS as a company because they can attempt business models the other platform holders couldn't in their dreams. Situations like this one is is why they say Apple, Google and Amazon are the competition in the long run.
It is a similar statement to what we hear about streaming in music and movie industry.
"De-evaluation" "people inside the industry not liking the model" "Numbers that are a bit vague"
It's too early to say if MS suceeded with GP or not but othsr industries are struggling to adjust to the realities of streaming,actor/writers strikes etc...
I don't want big statements like that to come from Jim Ryan or someone from Nintendo tho,gotta see what the studios and indepentent publishers think about it.
It's not a lie really but a rationalisation of their decision and downplaying of the competition which he does have reasons to do.
I do think the disruption gamepass has is scary for other players. If MS starts to roll out 4-6 high quality AAA games per year in gamepass. It will make other products less appealing to the consumer long term. (Logically why would anyone pay $70 for a game when it's in the service, unless you only play 1-2 games a year.)
Sony would be much more comfortable to keep charging $70+ per game rather than figure out a way to release 4-6 AAA games a year in a subscription service. It seems like more of a problem of scale for them.
The economics for gamepass work if you can deliver the content. Sony at its current size/release cadence cannot.
He's a leader of a corporation. He has every reason to lie.
Apple, Amazon or Google (and Meta?) could weather it in a similar way due to how diversified they are and their deep pockets. And I think that's why Microsoft is investing the way that they are. The gaming landscape will continue to change in terms of consolidation, tech evolution and gaming preferences, leaving openings for disruption by these tech giants that have more money than they know what to do with and ever demanding growth responsibility to share holders.
Some business is going to make the Netflix of gaming work. That was always going to require greater accessibility and more games exclusive to the service.
MS has the best shot at taking the top spot for a game streaming service due to their history and what they've built thus far, but it's not guaranteed. Even with ABK they will have a ways to go to make it appealing globally, meaning they have to secure even more content.
Ok been skimming through some of the new documents that been unsealed on the FTC case document and found this one somewhat interesting, It's the report regrading the YouGov Survey in its entirety, without any redactions.
And Surprise, surprise; it completely debunks the FTC's claim that 20% of Playstation users would shift to Xbox if the deal goes through.
And Surprise, surprise; it completely debunks the FTC's claim that 20% of Playstation users would shift to Xbox if the deal goes through.
Ok been skimming through some of the new documents that been unsealed on the FTC case document and found this one somewhat interesting, It's the report regrading the YouGov Survey in its entirety, without any redactions.
And Surprise, surprise; it completely debunks the FTC's claim that 20% of Playstation users would shift to Xbox if the deal goes through.
So ALL publishers hate GamePass?
But a lot of devs love it? At least that's what I remember hearing from a lot of devs.
But a lot of devs love it? At least that's what I remember hearing from a lot of devs.
It's the direct competition talking smack about Gamepass, I'd take any comments with a shaker of salt.
Yeah, I'm not buying too much into it, more just thinking that it's possible publishers hate it, but devs love it. Haha.
Yeah, I've seen a bunch of posts about devs having it be a very good deal for them, and also some that said it wasn't as good. I trust them for sure.
But I am curious on what full publishers say. It's possible it may not be as lucrative for them, not saying I believe Jim, but I would like to hear some publishers takes on it.
Kotick said he didn't feel like putting there games on GamePass was a good business decision I think, or maybe that was just for CoD? I don't remember.
Although it's not stated in the interview, he is almost certainly being understood to be referring to high budget games and from the biggest publishers. Reading it now I am also not sure "hate" is intended to be literal, but perhaps it is, hard to know without being able to ask followup questions.
This is independent of whether what he says is true or not, but that's how I would read it.
Yeah, definitely could be different ways to see it, I just want to dig deeper on it. Probably just all bs though.
Yeah, I mean there is games on there from just about every publisher, so I highly doubt they all hate it.
It depend of the publisher/dev I think.
Small/indie publishers/dev seems to like gamepass.
We see a lot of games from paradox, devolver and humble on gamepass and recently 11bit studios signed a deal to bring more games to gamepass
www.windowscentral.com
Small/indie publishers/dev seems to like gamepass.
We see a lot of games from paradox, devolver and humble on gamepass and recently 11bit studios signed a deal to bring more games to gamepass
11 bit studios inks a deal with Microsoft for new Xbox Game Pass additions
The studio has recently showcased Frostpunk 2 and The Alters, with more premieres scheduled for 2023.
www.windowscentral.com
The only way his comment makes any sense is if he's talking about day 1 launches - not Gamepass as a whole.
Big publishers are well represented on Gamepass- they use it to give their big games a second wind after retail sales slow down.
Yeah you're correct, I wrote that originally but then edited my post and forgot to readd that caveat. Day one big budget stuff.
What do you even do if you're that person? Seriously I feel so bad for them. They probably can't even breathe properly right now. Hope they have someone close with them and supportive friends.
OP
OP
Today the Financial Times has a big special about the CMA and the ABK saga:
A few highlights:
I'll share more later!
The newfound influence of the UK’s competition watchdog | Financial Times
The Competition and Markets Authority has enhanced clout post-Brexit. Critics are questioning its decision-makingwww.ft.com
A few highlights:
I'll share more later!
Jesus Christ looking at all these leaks about consoles, handhelds and the complete future Bethesda timetable....
Timeless opinion/posting stays timeless.
They should have closed it the first second they had the chance, I can only repeat myself again, until the next shit happens and I can say it... again.
Like I always said in the last weeks, they should have tried to close this thing after the won PI case, come what may, as soon as they could, immediately, eyes closed and through.
There are like a thousand things (literally) that could still go wrong, snowball, and blow the whole thing and they can't f'n risk that.
Now they potentially made a huge mistake.
Phil:
Timeless opinion/posting stays timeless.
They should have closed it the first second they had the chance, I can only repeat myself again, until the next shit happens and I can say it... again.
They've never had a chance to close this deal legally, so this opinion doesn't really make sense, and never has. The deal requires CMA approval, they can't close in some places but not others. The fallout and consequences - legal, financial, reputational - of closing over CMA would be significantly more damaging than a few leaks about their future plans.
Exactly. This is the closest they've been to closing it legally.
I don't see what difference the leaks have made to whether or not they should have closed it over the CMA.
They simply can't do it like Lowrys said without consequences.
Unless I'm missing something, the leaks do not hurt the acquisition at all.
FTC uploaded the docs it seems but they were supplied by MS / parties. FTC were meant to redact all the things and they failed to do so
The companies should indicate/mark what to redact themselfes, its not on the FTC to do that.
these are all confidential documents
this is FTC being incompetent as they have been
I think they did and the ftc didn't follow through
Assuming that they had interns doing the redactions and uploads and had a deadline. Probably understaffed resource wise and in the push they missed a bunch
Sucks for all involved except us and the media who get inner workings of the business side of the industry which is so guarded
FTC should be sued to a ground. That level of incompetence is shocking