The Flash Projected to Open between $155 to $165 Million Worldwide, $70 Million Domestic OW

Dale Copper · Jun 13, 2023

Hoping Not To Be Gone In A ‘Flash’: DC Pic Eyes $155M+ WW Opening – Box Office Preview

After a year plus of tabloid headlines about its star Ezra Miller, Warner Bros./DC's Covid-delayed $200M Justice League standalone superhero movie, The Flash, finally arrives in theaters. The global opening looks better than domestic, $155M-$165M Global to a $70M+ in U.S./Canada.

deadline.com

After a year-plus of tabloid headlines about its star Ezra Miller, Warner Bros./DC's Covid-delayed $200M Justice League standalone superhero movie The Flash finally arrives in theaters. The global opening looks better than domestic, $155M-$165M global to a $70M+ in U.S./Canada.

Despite a very good response out of CinemaCon and DC co-boss James Gunn exclaiming that the pic is "probably one of the greatest superhero movies ever made," along with reports on how the movie is set to reset the DC-verse, The Flash has been sitting around $70M-$75M on tracking for quite some time.

Currently, the opening international box office estimate is in the $85M-$95M range. There's also a range of opening comps, from the first Ant-Man ($98M at today's rates and in like-for-likes) to the more recent Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania ($115M) and Black Adam ($77M).

While this is a character that is not very well known outside the hardcore fandom (or fans of the TV show), it's tough to market a movie when you can't travel the star, something that is key to generating buzz in offshore markets.

Deadline "sources" claim it's a "good" start... :

At the same time, a $70M-$75M start for the first installment of a superhero movie is more common than you think — and some distribution sources even remark is very commendable start for a movie that was plagued by the off-set controversies of its star. Consider some of the openings of other superhero movies' first installments, i.e. Ant-Man ($57.2M), Thor ($65.7M), Black Adam ($67M), Aquaman ($67.8M, though a 5-day Christmas weekend launch which did $105.4M and ultimately over $335M stateside). You gotta start these franchises somewhere. On one hand, some are shocked that a movie that features Keaton's original movie Batman in his third go-round as the DC superhero after 31 years that is 71% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes is going to open to potentially less than Sony's critically panned Venom. That pic was smacked by critics with 30% Rotten, but relished an $80.2M opening which started a franchise. In the same breath, the original Wonder Woman was expected to open to $65M-$75M, wound up overperforming to a $103.2M start. Perhaps, The Flash finds a similar enormous must-see heat this weekend. One assumption is that those being polled by tracking aren't admitting that they have ulterior motives to really see the Miller movie this weekend. Flash previews start at 3PM Thursday.

megamanofnumbers · Jun 13, 2023

Once again. Due to the fucked nature of late stage capitalism and the hunger for infinite money, I'll need to ask:

Is this a good thing or a bad thing?

Serene · Jun 13, 2023

For a standard blockbuster this would be a decent but not amazing number

Given how much money has been spent on (multiple) marketing campaigns and countless re-shoots on this movie specifically, this is not a good number. Deadline can try to spin it if they like.

The movie's success is entirely dependent on WoM carrying it to great legs.

CDX · Jun 13, 2023

megamanofnumbers said:
Once again. Due to the fucked nature of late stage capitalism and the hunger for infinite money, I'll need to ask:

Is this a good thing or a bad thing?

Black Adam recently had a $67M domestic opening weekend. So…

If true it would probably need some LEGS.

fancyarcher · Jun 13, 2023

Serene said:
For a standard blockbuster this would be a decent but not amazing number

Given how much money has been spent on (multiple) marketing campaigns and countless re-shoots on this movie specifically, this is not a good number. Deadline can try to spin it if they like.

The movie's success is entirely dependent on WoM carrying it to great legs.

Even WOM won't be enough, especially because it's unlikely to have more than a 2.5 multiplier.

Serene · Jun 13, 2023

fancyarcher said:
Even WOM won't be enough, especially because it's unlikely to have more than a 2.5 multiplier.

Probably, but I'm trying to paint the best-case scenario. lol

Seesaw15 · Jun 13, 2023

Movie better have long blue Avatar legs.

Ridley327 · Jun 13, 2023

megamanofnumbers said:
Once again. Due to the fucked nature of late stage capitalism and the hunger for infinite money, I'll need to ask:

Is this a good thing or a bad thing?

It's mediocre trending bad for a film with this kind of budget. The reviews being not as bad as some feared doesn't change the fact that there wasn't any knockout praise for it on that same token, so it's not really finding its footing ahead of time to drive the hype to where I imagine WB wants it to be at to have a bigger debut (I even want to say that the tracking is more or less identical to where it was before the reviews, which isn't great). This one is really going to need to find some crazy legs to stand a chance, and that's going to be nigh impossible with how stacked the schedule is looking like in the coming weeks after it releases.

Heshinsi · Jun 13, 2023

megamanofnumbers said:
Once again. Due to the fucked nature of late stage capitalism and the hunger for infinite money, I'll need to ask:

Is this a good thing or a bad thing?

Fast X opened to $315M worldwide. The Flash film is projected to have an opening close to half of that. For the budget it's kinda meh.

kowhite · Jun 13, 2023

Heshinsi said:
Fast X opened to $315M worldwide. The Flash film is projected to have an opening close to half of that. For the budget it's kinda meh.

It's meh. But if it really cost $220M (somewhat doubt though)...hey, it'll probably breakeven at least.

Imperial Bishop · Jun 13, 2023

It's good until you remember the movie's budget.

It's gonna need STRONG legs.

gdt · Jun 13, 2023

That ain't good.

ContractHolder · Jun 13, 2023

Look, fuck Ezra, but someone tell Anthony from Deadline when he's done playing PR for WBD to use Ezra's correct pronouns.

MrPink · Jun 13, 2023

The projections have continued to fall as presales have gone on. Just feels like the interest in this particular iteration is not there.

Bor Gullet · Jun 13, 2023

That's about the same as Indiana Jones 5, yeah?

Ridley327 · Jun 13, 2023

Bor Gullet said:
That's about the same as Indiana Jones 5, yeah?

About the only thing this film has on Indy 5 is that it didn't cost as much as that film did, which is still a pretty bad situation, but not as dire as it is for Disney right now.

Strike · Jun 13, 2023

Hope WOM is good.

bastardly · Jun 13, 2023

yeh, thats no bueno. i think it will leg out better than black adam, but i think it gonna top out at 550-600MM, which isnt what WB is expecting at all

KillstealWolf · Jun 13, 2023

Strike said:
Hope WOM is good.

I have doubts about that as more and more of the CGI shots start leaking out online. They don't look great at all. And one of those cameos in particular is a particular ghoulish one.

Nerdkiller · Jun 13, 2023

KillstealWolf said:
I have doubts about that as more and more of the CGI shots start leaking out online. They don't look great at all. And one of those cameos in particular is a particular ghoulish one.

I've seen that one already, and...

kowhite · Jun 13, 2023

bastardly said:
yeh, thats no bueno. i think it will leg out better than black adam, but i think it gonna top out at 550-600MM, which isnt what WB is expecting at all

You know, I would not be surprised if $600M is what was expected out of this film. At a supposed cost of $220M, that would be a solidly profitable movie after all. I think people overestimate what movies are expected to make, and what they need to do to make money, given the type of actual studio forecasts I've seen.

NealMcCauley · Jun 13, 2023

I was looking at seats in my town this morning and showtimes are empty after Thursday night. The imax 7pm Friday has maybe 20 seats out of 400 booked.

carlsojo · Jun 13, 2023

Pretty good considering the competition this summer.

SolidSnakex · Jun 13, 2023

megamanofnumbers said:
Once again. Due to the fucked nature of late stage capitalism and the hunger for infinite money, I'll need to ask:

Is this a good thing or a bad thing?

This is the DCEU's history with openings

Batman v Superman - 166m
Suicide Squad - 133m
Man of Steel - 116m
Wonder Woman - 103m
Justice League - 93m
Aquaman - 67m
Black Adam - 67m
Shazam! - 53m
Birds of Prey - 33m
Shazam! Fury of the Gods - 30m
The Suicide Squad - 26m
Wonder Woman 1984 - 16m

mreddie · Jun 13, 2023

CDX said:
Black Adam recently had a $67M domestic opening weekend. So…

If true it would probably need some LEGS.

Indy is the week after and Barbie/Opp/Cruise soon after that

Double 0 · Jun 13, 2023

All I know is that Majors and Tenoch's jobs pretty much depend on this movie doing well.

So I want it to fail. Vet your actors instead of covering for them.

kowhite · Jun 13, 2023

Double 0 said:
All I know is that Majors and Tenoch's jobs pretty much depend on this movie doing well.

So I want it to fail. Vet your actors instead of covering for them.

You're going to have to explain how The Flash making money or not has anything to do with what Marvel decides on those two. I suspect I'm not going to agree with whatever you're thinking though.

Lord Vatek · Jun 13, 2023

Between the horrible lead and the disrespectful cameos, the movie deserves to flop.

gdt · Jun 13, 2023

SolidSnakex said:
This is the DCEU's history with openings

Batman v Superman - 166m
Suicide Squad - 133m
Man of Steel - 116m
Wonder Woman - 103m
Justice League - 93m
Aquaman - 67m
Black Adam - 67m
Shazam! - 53m
Birds of Prey - 33m
Shazam! Fury of the Gods - 30m
The Suicide Squad - 26m
Wonder Woman 1984 - 16m

Fucking BONKERS how Justice League collapsed so hard.

Adventureracing · Jun 13, 2023

A lot of competition coming up too, can't imagine it having super good legs either.

cheese toast · Jun 13, 2023

SolidSnakex said:
This is the DCEU's history with openings

Batman v Superman - 166m
Suicide Squad - 133m
Man of Steel - 116m
Wonder Woman - 103m
Justice League - 93m
Aquaman - 67m
Black Adam - 67m
Shazam! - 53m
Birds of Prey - 33m
Shazam! Fury of the Gods - 30m
The Suicide Squad - 26m
Wonder Woman 1984 - 16m

That drop from Wonder Woman to 1984… yikes.

The Quentulated Mox · Jun 13, 2023

SolidSnakex said:
This is the DCEU's history with openings

Batman v Superman - 166m
Suicide Squad - 133m
Man of Steel - 116m
Wonder Woman - 103m
Justice League - 93m
Aquaman - 67m
Black Adam - 67m
Shazam! - 53m
Birds of Prey - 33m
Shazam! Fury of the Gods - 30m
The Suicide Squad - 26m
Wonder Woman 1984 - 16m

Man. What a goddamn disaster the DCEU has been. Obviously, it's not entirely creative decisions at fault here, COVID and byzantine corporate restructuring did a lot to push those numbers down but like the majority of these movies couldn't possibly have had legs even in ideal release environments.

lenovox1 · Jun 13, 2023

ContractHolder said:
Look, fuck Ezra, but someone tell Anthony from Deadline when he's done playing PR for WBD to use Ezra's correct pronouns.

I'm shocked the editor didn't catch that.

kowhite · Jun 13, 2023

cheese toast said:
That drop from Wonder Woman to 1984… yikes.

It opened in December 2020 at a particularly bad time during covid, with a HBO Max same day release. I'm not sure that drop from the first film really reflects much of anything but those factors. Just to put it in perspective, from when COVID hit in March 2020, WW84's domestic opening of $16m is the biggest domestic opening weekend of any movie all year after things first shutdown. I didn't really like WW84, and I think That would've hurt it's end grosses if it opened in a normal time, but it's very clear the box office on WW84 was severely impacted by its time of release.

Hours Left · Jun 13, 2023

A deserved flop.

KillstealWolf · Jun 13, 2023

cheese toast said:
That drop from Wonder Woman to 1984… yikes.

Ehh, Pandemic so it's not like that's a fair comparison.

Now, Rotten Tomato scores from Wonder Woman to 1984, that ones a yikes.

Legs will probably determine how it does overall. The highest grossing DC Film of all time is Aquaman of all things which I still need to remind myself every so often, and that opened right in the middle of the pack. I don't think we'll be seeing an Aquaman like run though in this case, too much competition already out and upcoming for that.

Also spot Into the Spiderverse releasing around that same time period of Aquaman, oh how the the tides have turned.

MischeifMaestro · Jun 14, 2023

DC needs 80+ plus here to save face

El Bombastico · Jun 14, 2023

I keep telling people that the DC brand itself has become toxic and is actively turning people away...

Fj0823 · Jun 14, 2023

MrPink said:
The projections have continued to fall as presales have gone on. Just feels like the interest in this particular iteration is not there.

The Snyderverse is BO poison it seems, and the reboot anouncement clearly didn't help

El Bombastico said:
I keep telling people that the DC brand itself has become toxic and is actively turning people away...

Not the DC brand itself as proven by The Batman. Superhero fatigue doesn't exist. But It seems that this specific iteration of the "Universe" is a absolutely done. So much so that people won't even show up to see it die. Ezra Miller and the Reboot anouncement are not helping

Lord Fanny · Jun 14, 2023

SolidSnakex said:
This is the DCEU's history with openings

Batman v Superman - 166m
Suicide Squad - 133m
Man of Steel - 116m
Wonder Woman - 103m
Justice League - 93m
Aquaman - 67m
Black Adam - 67m
Shazam! - 53m
Birds of Prey - 33m
Shazam! Fury of the Gods - 30m
The Suicide Squad - 26m
Wonder Woman 1984 - 16m

Didn't Aquaman make a billion? Kind of surprised it opened that low

El Bombastico · Jun 14, 2023

Lord Fanny said:
Didn't Aquaman make a billion? Kind of surprised it opened that low

Opened during holidays so it's legs were amazing.

Jogi · Jun 14, 2023

Double 0 said:
All I know is that Majors and Tenoch's jobs pretty much depend on this movie doing well.

So I want it to fail. Vet your actors instead of covering for them.

I keep seeing this and have no idea why Marvel would give two shits what DC of all people do? Anyone is replaceable this early in a phase. If they deem it so, then they are gone. Has literally nothing to do with how The Flash performs.

El Bombastico · Jun 14, 2023

Fj0823 said:
The Snyderverse is BO poison it seems, and the reboot anouncement clearly didn't help

Not the DC brand itself as proven by The Batman. Superhero fatigue doesn't exist. But It seems that this specific iteration of the "Universe" is a absolutely done. So much so that people won't even show up to see it die. Ezra Miller and the Reboot anouncement are not helping

Batman is Batman though. Tied with Spider-man as THE most iconic and well-known superhero the world over. People are always gonna show up for his films.

The problem is that DC might now have a reverse-MCU pattern where many people will not give their less popular heroes the time of day, just because it's DC. There's not gonna be a GotG-situation where an obscure character(s) gets a boost because people trust the brand name so much and become a smash hit an audience darling.

DC is facing an uphill battle outside of Batman, where general audience are gonna side-eye any new film unless the reviews/WoM is exceptional.

The Flash Projected to Open between $155 to $165 Million Worldwide, $70 Million Domestic OW

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