The economy looks fine, but is it really?

[TrueSloth]

Reports are frequently coming out claiming the economy is fine and the markets are only going to get stronger, but when compared to news of increasing income inequality, less well paying jobs, higher student debt, increasing housing costs, increasing car loan debt, etc. It's obvious the stock market isn't really a good barometer for a healthy economy, especially at the exponential increase it shows from the past few years. There should be more discussion about who owns those shares and who benefits from the stock market, because it's certainly not helping most Americans. I'm just feeling pessimistic about it all.
Are my feelings unreasonable here and are things actually as good as they say they are? Because I feel like the markets are just a mask for what is actually happening here.

 

[Velocity:Design:Comfort]

No, you are 100% correct, and I'm glad to see other people are asking these questions and realizing this. The way we measure economic success is simply sophistry that only self reinforces the idea that its better (in the mathematically optimal sense of production in aggregate) when the rich are better off and everyone else gets just scraps.

 

[JeffGubb]

It's not just the stock market that is doing well. Consumer spending is also strong, and that's why so many people think the economy seems strong. We were talking about recession a few months ago, and we literally just spent our way through those worries.

 

[Thrill_house]

No, things are not OK. Your average person is fucking broke. No retirement fund, emergency money or support system for a majority of folk out there.

 

[TrueSloth]

It's not just the stock market that is doing well. Consumer spending is also strong, and that's why so many people think the economy seems strong. We were talking about recession a few months ago, and we literally just spent our way through those worries.

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Is that a remnant of the last recession where we were told not to save and keep spending?

 

[Masoyama]

I dunno, I can't really go through every metric, but I know that I am doing fantastic and I am not alone. If you got a degree in a competitive field with zero or no debt and started investing quickly, this economy is working wonders for you.

 

[SpottieO]

It's not just the stock market that is doing well. Consumer spending is also strong, and that's why so many people think the economy seems strong. We were talking about recession a few months ago, and we literally just spent our way through those worries.

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? Consumer Confidence is trending down and holiday spending so far has been below expectations.

 

[Temascos]

In London we apparently recovered from austerity and the recession, but I'm seeing more and more homeless people, and shops that were around for decades close up, some new ones open and then close quickly in the same spot.

The overarching crisis of inequality, general divide and climate change have not gone away, and I imagine it's going to hit a breaking point at some point over the next decade, especially with Brexit and a recession looming as it is. We are ill-prepared to deal with a major crisis on the scale of 2008.

 

[Muppet of a Man]

The economy is doing great for the investor class - baby boomer crossover. For the youth generations, the economy is shit, just as it has been for the last 10 years.

Trump does not represent you; he represents the cross section of white, old, and rich.

He represents their spite and vitriol and wish to suppress and condemn their own children for their own short-sighted benefit.

 

[Kieli]

Quantitative easing is an euphemism for printing more money. The US has been doing a lot of QE as of late. What is the effect of the increased supply on the market? Inflation?

But if the inflating currency is the world currency, would inflation be slower?

 

[Velocity:Design:Comfort]

It's not just the stock market that is doing well. Consumer spending is also strong, and that's why so many people think the economy seems strong. We were talking about recession a few months ago, and we literally just spent our way through those worries.

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You mean grew enormous amounts of debt* to falsely inflate consumer spending, especially during this season. People also bought more now because of fears of tariffs and taxes in the future which will go into effect soon. Spending will drop like a rock in 6 months.

? Consumer Confidence is trending down and holiday spending so far has been below expectations.

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Also, this.

 

[SaulForex]

I dunno, I can't really go through every metric, but I know that I am doing fantastic and I am not alone. If you got a degree in a competitive field with zero or no debt and started investing quickly, this economy is working wonders for you.

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So a very small percentage of people are doing well?

 

[Marshall]

It doesn't help in the long run that the GOP politicians like to spend, but never pay for the spending. They put everything on a giant Uncle Sam AMEX card. At least the Democrats are more fiscally responsible in saying we need to raise taxes to pay for all this stuff. I find it hysterical that your average Republican throws out the fiscal conservative claim like they actually mean it.

 

[Proxy-Pie]

When that economy is held up by over a trillion dollars deficit and the greatest income inequality since the roaring 20s, obviously there's a problem.

 

[Velocity:Design:Comfort]

No, things are not OK. Your average person is fucking broke. No retirement fund, emergency money or support system for a majority of folk out there.

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I dunno, I can't really go through every metric, but I know that I am doing fantastic and I am not alone. If you got a degree in a competitive field with zero or no debt and started investing quickly, this economy is working wonders for you.

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Thisisera.gif

 

[Velocity:Design:Comfort]

I dunno, I can't really go through every metric, but I know that I am doing fantastic and I am not alone. If you got a degree in a competitive field with zero or no debt and started investing quickly, this economy is working wonders for you.

Click to shrink...

What is the yearly return on your portfolio? Now, what is the yearly return on your portfolio if you didnt buy weapons/war manufacturers, dirty energy stocks, or stock of corrupt and unethical businesses like Facebook? Trump policy propping up numerous industries that all indications show are actually extremely overvalued makes DOW and portfolios go up but it's all a sham or even worse, it's the war machine.

 

[Masoyama]

So a very small percentage of people are doing well?

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I mean, yeah probably. Its very hard for me to judge what the average American is doing because I am an immigrant and my circle of friends is mostly work friends and other immigrants. I will way that the people like me the emmigrated to the US during the recovery are doing really well.

What is the yearly return on your portfolio? Now, what is the yearly return on your portfolio if you didnt buy weapons/war manufacturers, dirty energy stocks, or stock of corrupt and unethical businesses like Facebook?

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Yeah, I can probably get you those numbers later. We actually keep track of that information in our portfolio by having a clean stock tab. We segregated them at the start and selected some that were hard NO for us. My girlfriends takes care of the numbers, so I wont know until I get back to her.

 

[ErbilT]

I dunno, I can't really go through every metric, but I know that I am doing fantastic and I am not alone. If you got a degree in a competitive field with zero or no debt and started investing quickly, this economy is working wonders for you.

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So basically, if you came from wealth and/or privilege, you'll be fine.

If you did not, well.... good luck.

 

[maximumzero]

I dunno, I can't really go through every metric, but I know that I am doing fantastic and I am not alone. If you got a degree in a competitive field with zero or no debt and started investing quickly, this economy is working wonders for you.

Click to shrink...

Not everybody has the time, knowledge, or heck, cash to "invest" these days.

 

[Proxy-Pie]

It doesn't help in the long run that the GOP politicians like to spend, but never pay for the spending. They put everything on a giant Uncle Sam AMEX card. At least the Democrats are more fiscally responsible in saying we need to raise taxes to pay for all this stuff. I find it hysterical that your average Republican throws out the fiscal conservative claim like they actually mean it.

Click to shrink...

Right? It's weird that not many people point out that Democrats were consistently more fiscally conservative than Republicans in the past few decades. Hell, Clinton even had a surplus!

 

[dhlt25]

Quantitative easing is an euphemism for printing more money. The US has been doing a lot of QE as of late. What is the effect of the increased supply on the market? Inflation?

But if the inflating currency is the world currency, would inflation be slower?

Click to shrink...

the way QE work right now it's actually inflation of asset (real estate, stocks) and deflation/stagflation of products aka rich people get richer and poor people can have enough to not starve

 

[BAD]

No, it's not fine. People are underpaid and have no benefits.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/44...y-30-million-americans-have-good-jobs.157961/

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

I dunno, I can't really go through every metric, but I know that I am doing fantastic and I am not alone. If you got a degree in a competitive field with zero or no debt and started investing quickly, this economy is working wonders for you.

Click to shrink...

Oh all you need to do is get a degree while accruing zero debt while investing in the market. Easy peasy.

 

[Masoyama]

So basically, if you came from wealth and/or privilege, you'll be fine.

If you did not, well.... good luck.

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Or if you were born in a poor latin american country and emmigrated thanks to a student scholarship like me.

Not everybody has the time, knowledge, or heck, cash to "invest" these days.

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Me and my girlfriend were getting a $27.5k stipend in grad school each. We had to pay taxes and fees on it, so we were ending with about $20k effective each per year. By the time I finished my PhD (she graduated first) we had close to $100k in investment portfolio. We were not getting any money from parents or anything like that, I mean, my girlfriends parents did not even finish 4th grade and have never even left their small village in Portugal.

 

[Zombegoast]

Nothing is ok.

I wad questioning how thing a "great" and then I see a YouTube video of Bernie Sanders speaking about the problems we're currently having.

We're told that we're better now than during the recession. While true but we're worse than we current where back 50 years ago.

 

[Thrill_house]

Thisisera.gif

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I'm in the trades so I'm sure I am seeing things from a different perspective. The college educated folk that came from a "good home"(come from money) and had a good support system I'm sure are singing a different tune.

I had to put my employer into a "Fuck you, pay me." situation to get where I am but unfortunately a good chunk of my peers aren't able to do the same. It's rough out here for alot of people.

 

[Velocity:Design:Comfort]

Or if you were born in a poor latin american country and emmigrated thanks to a student scholarship like me.

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Say there was someone just like you, who did the same thing, but their degree was in a very valuable but underpaid profession like, say, anthropology. I would say they would hardly be doing so well.

 

[Velocity:Design:Comfort]

I'm in the trades so I'm sure I am seeing things from a different perspective. The college educated folk that came from a "good home"(come from money) and had a good support system I'm sure are singing a different tune.

I had to put my employer into a "Fuck you, pay me." situation to get where I am but unfortunately a good chunk of my peers aren't able to do the same. It's rough out here for alot of people.

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That's interesting, what field are you in? I assume it's kind of like a guild or union type pay structure where you only get more money after years of experience, right?

 

[PMS341]

The economy is far from fine. The majority of the working class barely makes enough to cover rent and living expenses while all of the new "jobs" are minimum wage bullshit. Minimum wage has been stagnant for years while cost of living has only gone up. Student loans are crippling people. The only people benefiting from the current economy are those who already benefited prior.

 

[Masoyama]

Say there was someone just like you, who did the same thing, but their degree was in a very valuable but underpaid profession like, say, anthropology. I would say they would hardly be doing so well.

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Well sure, but we made a conscious decision to get into a field that we loved and where people get thrown money at them. I work in renewable power and my girlfriend is a bio engineer. We made these decisions at ages 17-18 and adapted as we read the market.

 

[ErbilT]

Or if you were born in a poor latin american country and emmigrated thanks to a student scholarship like me.

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You got a scholarship. That's pretty privileged. There's a lot of people out there who can technically qualify for one, but can't acquire one for circumstances beyond their control.

 

[Deleted member 48897]

Remember also that unemployment metrics actually ignore unemployment of the structural variety (i.e., people unable to get a job due to skills no longer relevant to the workplace, among other causes, and thus not actively seeking re-employment). Unemployment as a percentage is a measure of how many people who are wanting jobs are getting them, not how many people are actually inside vs. out of the labor force (for which a count of the number of active working people in the US is more relevant).

This is of course beyond the question of whether or not a job is actually able to pay for the costs of living of people, and many current jobs simply do not!

 

[Deleted member 41638]

There was a good segment on NPR about this the other day.

Unemployment is really low, stock market is setting records, lots of people are off of welfare in some form or another.

But if you read the details it isn't so rosy. 58% of people are in low-paying jobs, and 60% of those people feel that there's no way to move up or improve their situation.

Stock market is great but only ~50% of Americans own stock.

Lots off welfare but homelessness is rising, rent is increasing faster than wage growth.

I think Andrew Yang has a great little speech about this, how we shouldn't put the stock market and GDP as the main factors in determining how the US is doing. Overall happiness is down and average life expectancy is down as well. We need to update how we determine success because $$$ is not the end-all be-all.

 

[Masoyama]

You got a scholarship. That's pretty privileged. There's a lot of people out there who can technically qualify for one, but can't acquire one for circumstances beyond their control.

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Yeah sure, I never implied I don't have privilege. I am really good at getting people to like me. I had my scholarship application paid for by my undergrad advisor and my PhD paid for in full by my grad school advisor.

 

[Horns]

The federal reserve has had to lower interest rates three times during a "good" economy. There's a ticking timebomb just waiting to go off. The tax cuts and rollback of some Dodd-Frank rules will only make it worse.

 

[efr]

Consumer confidence is high because of the holidays.
If the student loan bubble pops, the mortgage bubble that Republicans re-allowed pops, or China's housing market pops, the US economy will be in another depression.

It's coming but if history is correct, it won't happen until Spring 2020 or literally right after the 2020 election. When China's housing market crumbles on itself, it will crush the world economy, not just the US

 

[Thrill_house]

That's interesting, what field are you in? I assume it's kind of like a guild or union type pay structure where you only get more money after years of experience, right?

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Machining. The pay gap between skilled and unskilled guys is the size of the grand canyon and I don't see it getting better unfortunately. Yeah I'm doing well and the way this trade is going I'm looking to continue moving up but those poor fucks at the bottom of the food chain are getting screwed pretty hard. Automation is both a boon and a bane I guess.

 

[adj_noun]

I dunno, I can't really go through every metric, but I know that I am doing fantastic and I am not alone.

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Same here, only with a not in front of fantastic.

 

[Velocity:Design:Comfort]

Well sure, but we made a conscious decision to get into a field that we loved and where people get thrown money at them. I work in renewable power and my girlfriend is a bio engineer. We made these decisions at ages 17-18 and adapted as we read the market.

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Ah, so you're going with "Why didn't everyone just do STEM like me?" You should realize that an economy where there are so many people left behind because they didnt get their school paid for or are not passionate about or people who are just not suited for STEM stuff is actually bad for you in the long term.

 

[Velocity:Design:Comfort]

Consumer confidence is high because of the holidays.
If the student loan bubble pops, the mortgage bubble that Republicans re-allowed pops, or China's housing market pops, the US economy will be in another depression.

It's coming but if history is correct, it won't happen until Spring 2020 or literally right after the 2020 election. When China's housing market crumbles on itself, it will crush the world economy, not just the US

Click to shrink...

Lol, no way, this is just simply untrue, and a few quarters of slow or no growth is not a depression. The US economy has ways to insulate itself from China housing make too much of an impact. But the point though in this thread is that the US economy is only good at two things: there are some mechanisms to provide structure/robustness and rewarding the rich.

 

[Tempy]

I wish threads like this didn't devolve into arguing anecdotal evidence.

 

[JimmyNeedles-TS]

What is the yearly return on your portfolio? Now, what is the yearly return on your portfolio if you didnt buy weapons/war manufacturers, dirty energy stocks, or stock of corrupt and unethical businesses like Facebook? Trump policy propping up numerous industries that all indications show are actually extremely overvalued makes DOW and portfolios go up but it's all a sham or even worse, it's the war machine.

Click to shrink...

Highly interesting questions here ... tech companies are going through the roof, so what will happen if governments finally take their responsibilities?

 

[Masoyama]

Ah, so you're going with "Why didn't everyone just do STEM like me?" You should realize that an economy where there are so many people left behind because they didnt get their school paid for or are not passionate about or people who are just not suited for STEM stuff is actually bad for you in the long term.

Click to shrink...

If you got a PhD in anthropology as the question I was answering mentioned, you knew what you were getting into. You either love it and know that it will lead to a life of zero funding or you get out as soon as you can. Some jobs have always been more valued than others, and this gets amplified during economic down turns. Hopefully things turn out better, but I am not putting my future in the hands of "hope".

 

[Deleted member 8752]

It's not just the stock market that is doing well. Consumer spending is also strong, and that's why so many people think the economy seems strong. We were talking about recession a few months ago, and we literally just spent our way through those worries.

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Where do you get your news?

 

[zero_suit]

I wish threads like this didn't devolve into arguing anecdotal evidence.

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Always happens, and it usually comes from people in the STEM field.

 

[cecilpaladin32]

I'm sick of hearing about how tight the labor market is and how easy it should be to get another job. I've gotten a handful of interviews at some great companies...but it's taken an incredible effort on my part and several months. I have my fingers crossed for an interview I had this week (which I think went pretty well)...

 

[Kurdel]

We are the height of worldwide economic prosperity right now.

Look around you, look at the news, this is as good as it gets under capitalism.

46% of Canadians $200 or less away from financial insolvency? That's ok, don't worry about it! Nothing to see here!

 

[Midramble]

Yeah sure, I never implied I don't have privilege. I am really good at getting people to like me. I had my scholarship application paid for by my undergrad advisor and my PhD paid for in full by my grad school advisor.

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It's good that you have gratitude and a positive outlook, though I gotta ask, if you knew your situation was exceptional and you received benefits that the mass majority can't why would you use your situation as a measuring stick for the status of the average person or even the general state of it all?

 

[YamchasRevenge]

Consumer confidence is high because of the holidays.
If the student loan bubble pops, the mortgage bubble that Republicans re-allowed pops, or China's housing market pops, the US economy will be in another depression.

It's coming but if history is correct, it won't happen until Spring 2020 or literally right after the 2020 election. When China's housing market crumbles on itself, it will crush the world economy, not just the US

Click to shrink...

We've been hearing about the China bubble and Student Loan bubble popping for ages now.

 

[Kuro]

there's a lot of bubbles waiting to pop and it ain't gonna be pretty