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Sydle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,624
We literally did this same song and dance so many times with Hillary in 2016. And I was a Hillary supporter. You can't ignore the signs. You can't brush off criticism and say "it'll get better, polls are wrong, it's still early". We need someone young, competent, charismatic. Someone with no baggage. That's what wins national elections. It sucks but it is what it is.

The polls failed multiple times. And this far out they can change.

Reagan had a bad first debate. Bill Clinton had a bad first debate and there were articles declaring he would lose. Obama had a bad debate. One bad night will not determine the outcome of this election. A bunch of Dems failing to show up and vote because they're too busy whining will hand Trump and MAGA the presidency.

The guy who predicted the last 9 of 10 elections correctly has said Biden is still believed to win.
 

BrickArts295

GOTY Tracking Thread Master
Member
Oct 26, 2017
14,759
Tell em Brandon!
youtube.com

DARK BRANDON RISES

let's go brandonjoin my discord: https://discord.gg/rwPnKEbJx7support me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/socdoneleft# downloadMP4 download: https://drive...
 

YimbyButler

Member
Jun 1, 2024
1,736
:/

Don't trust the voters of PA-WI-MI to do the right thing at all.

I can't even lie to myself and try to be positive about this election
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,846
The media will still manage to make it all about Biden dropping out. Look at that NYT cover. That's the narrative around Biden right now.
 

Enduin

You look 40
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,572
New York
Obvious outcome is obvious. Still patently absurd that the man is running in the first place, should have bowed out in the fall and had a proper primary for a new candidate. Biden is far and away not our only option in defeating Trump. Yeah it wouldn't be ideal losing out on the incumbency bump and all that but the man is seriously too old, he is a tremendous liability as a result, once you hit that age it's a literal roll of the dice how things go. Just in the span of six months you can see rapid deterioration come out of nowhere. Short of him just dying changing now would likely be far more risky, so we're stuck with the horse we have. I couldn't care less if he makes it the full four years as long as he makes it past January to be sworn in again.
 

Nappuccino

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
13,830
This is probably the right tack to take overall, project conviction and confidence, even though it's probably impossible to counter the perception so many voters now hold that he's not fit. Going with another candidate likely would have been the best idea 15 months, a year, even 6 months ago. But it's too late now.

It baffles me that this is the mindset people still have. We have a decade of covering Trump as a politician to go on, how can you still think this way.

The news does cover all the lies Trump tells and all the crimes he's committed. The problem? That doesn't do anything. His base is pot-committed and the block of Rs who will "hold their nose" and vote for him cannot be won over in any meaningful number. He is a candidate uniquely invincible to attack. It doesn't matter how many times MSNBC talks about how many pants-on-fire statements or blood-and-soil proclamations a speech has. That will not peel away voters to convert them from Trump to the Dems.

What matters in 2024, and what mattered and made the difference in 2016 and 2020, is getting turnout from the 40%-50% of Americans who aren't very politically engaged and don't typically vote even in presidential elections. Giving those people an animating reason to come to the polls. In 2016 a bunch of them helped meme a guy into office because he was new and volatile, while not enough of them thought a person that had been in the public eye as a cutthroat political operative (and had just been backstabbed) offered any change. In 2020 a bunch of them came out for Biden because they'd seen Trump wreck shit for 4 years and were tired of his shenanigans and because he mishandled the biggest public health crisis of our lifetimes, so they wanted any competent administrator.

Talking more and more about how Trump gets bad politifact ratings and bribes sex workers isn't how you win 2024. Providing a positive reason to explicitly vote for the Dems and Biden is how they win 2024.
Ok, that's part of it. But I don't think people have seen or understand how far Trump is going, too. We don't just need people excited about Dem platforms (but let's be honest that's on the Dems to talk about first, the reporters can't conjure what hasn't been said), but we also need to stop with the false equivalency the news is trying to pull. The news wants a close race and they should want to report on the things that will protect our country by giving an accurate and meaningful sense of the situation.

Basically, the News needs to focus on the real problem that is Trump and the Dems need to focus on showcasing their value to voters.

But, given that the news is the group focusing on this story, i choose to focus on the news in my comment.
 

GulfCoastZilla

Shinra Employee
Member
Sep 13, 2022
8,741
That's great, but unfortunately that 81-year-old man is the best shot we have.
Whose fault is that, not that it matters at this point.

Also, it's a quote, I don't hear him saying it.
It's like someone the other day on CNN was talking about Spanish interpertator doing Bidens responses at the debate. The interpertator isn't painting the full picture.

There is so much to say and none of it matters because it is what it is.
 

steejee

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
9,458
Here is coverage from BBC, WaPo, and the AP covering the latest Epstein documents and mentioning Trump's connection.
www.bbc.com

Jeffrey Epstein grand jury documents released by Florida judge

Nearly 200 pages of documents shed new light on Epstein's crimes and how he evaded severe punishment.
apnews.com

Florida prosecutors knew Epstein raped teenage girls 2 years before cutting deal, transcript shows

A Florida judge has released transcripts detailing 2006 grand jury testimony that accused the late millionaire and financier Jeffrey Epstein of sexually assaulting numerous underage teenage girls at his Palm Beach mansion.
Along with an NYMag piece that goes into detail on Trump's relationship with Epstein in wake of the new documents.

What exactly would the headlines about Trump be? "Trump is crazy and says dumb made-up shit that doesn't make sense?" We know that. Everyone knows that. Everyone has known that since 2014. It is established fact and repeating it over and over in major news media has been shown to have little to no effect on the people that support him, and just stating that for the millionth time doesn't get people who are disengaged motivated to vote. They just think, "yeah I know that, but we survived him last time I guess. Whatever I'm bored." They need a positive reason to vote for the dems.
Yes, they posted stories about it being released...and then crickets. Given the contents of the documents and how Trump is in them having a single blurb and then dropping it down the memory hole in favor of endless frontpage articles and OpEds about Biden is absurd. Where are the dozens of OpEds demanding he step down for raping a young girl in those documents?

Beyond that there's a whole debate to not only fact check but to question *Trump's* mental acuity. I really think Democrats need to stop framing him as a liar and instead talk about how mentally weak and degraded he is. How he can't stand up to powerful foreign foes or keep his thoughts straight and just repeats the last thing he sees. Play the right's game and start questioning if Trump has dementia, and that's why he's just talking about nonsense endlessly. Everyone has just accepted that he's a liar and there's nothing that can be done, change the narrative to it's not his lying getting worse it's his mental state. When Biden got a bit of a stride later in the debate he was able to fluster Trump into just rambling about totally inane stuff like he'd just had a stroke. Shoving a thumb into that sore spot brings out more insanity from Trump which can reinforce it.
 
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ZedLilIndPum

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,204
Thanks for making this thread. Not like we have any impact on anything, but it's good to have some discussion about how the heck he wins this thing now.
 

Tansut

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Dec 16, 2017
2,771
0bd0ed742059cd7f4c83882095aeb3752e45dfbfv2_hq.jpg
 
OP
OP
BWoog

BWoog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
40,585
We literally did this same song and dance so many times with Hillary in 2016. And I was a Hillary supporter. You can't ignore the signs. You can't brush off criticism and say "it'll get better, polls are wrong, it's still early". We need someone young, competent, charismatic. Someone with no baggage. That's what wins national elections. It sucks but it is what it is.

Nearly every sign in existence said that Hilary was going to win, to the point that even Trump didn't think he was going to fucking win which is why he was sitting in a cramped shoulder-to-shoulder office when the results were shared.
 
Aug 26, 2021
121
I hope they know what they're doing. I'm in a conservative state, so it's probably hard for me to gauge the reality in other places, but people on the left around my age here were already heavily considering abstaining over Palestine. Sure, it may be easier to do that here when you already know you're gonna lose, but I hope to god that between the debate and that, they have something up their sleeve. I'm not confident.
 

captmcblack

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,312
Good.

Now it's up to him to stay healthy and minimize own goals, and it's up to the people to do the right thing in November. The people have to be better than vibes and feels.
 

ClickyCal'

Member
Oct 25, 2017
61,386
We literally did this same song and dance so many times with Hillary in 2016. And I was a Hillary supporter. You can't ignore the signs. You can't brush off criticism and say "it'll get better, polls are wrong, it's still early". We need someone young, competent, charismatic. Someone with no baggage. That's what wins national elections. It sucks but it is what it is.
So what about the special elections that historically have been a sign for upcoming main elections that all have been great for Dems? Just as the special elections for Rep for 2016.
 

GulfCoastZilla

Shinra Employee
Member
Sep 13, 2022
8,741
The polls failed multiple times. And this far out they can change.

Reagan had a bad first debate. Bill Clinton had a bad first debate and there were articles declaring he would lose. Obama had a bad debate. One bad night will not determine the outcome of this election
None of those people were in their 80's though. They had bad first debates and they were younger, granted Regan was mid 70's but the other two were young.
 

Judge

Vault-Tec Seal of Approval
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
6,693
Kinda wild that the whole "news is a 24 hour cycle thing" has been true…there's been like 7 horrible things about Trump and RFK since the debate but *nothing* is getting covered other than the guy who sounded raspy a week ago.
 

jon bones

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
26,783
NYC
So what about the special elections that historically have been a sign for upcoming main elections that all have been great for Dems? Just as the special elections for Rep for 2016.

Trump wasn't on those ballots though, and he will energize crazies who otherwise stayed home in those elections

That we have to hope this when it's literally the same two candidates, where we already know what a Trump presidency will look like (and will be worse this time around) is just so damn sad to me lol

too many dummies want to "but her emails" ourselves into hell again
 

KDC720

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,644
Obviously, there was absolutely no chance of Biden dropping out at this point short of his death, it is what it is an it's going to be an anxiety inducing election season.

I firmly and genuinely believe Biden should have committed to being a one term president, now we have two of the most historically unpopular candidates going up against each other and Biden blew one of the biggest chances he had to prove his doubters wrong.

Biden needs to be in top form from now until election day, anything less and he is cooked. Crossing my fingers that gas prices go down and the abortion issue drags Biden to victory because it's looking rough otherwise. Especially given the media, corporations, Putin, and Netanyahu would all prefer Trump.
 

Tukarrs

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,965
Probably the wrong call.
Harris should have taken over.

Just gambling that Biden doesn't have public moments again.
 

ChaosXVI

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,134
We need a new debate like fucking yesterday. Before the Democratic convention. If it really was just one bad day, we need to see him publicly, off-script, as much as possible to stop this narrative.

Or, if he bombs again, THEN the convention can be some horrible nightmare of trying to select a new candidate. I don't want to live in that universe though. The incumbency is just such a strong position to waste.
 

YimbyButler

Member
Jun 1, 2024
1,736
Maybe this whole debacle makes people like Biden more somehow

Or at least strengthens his base that was clearly weakening

Or other things I'll tell myself
 

Jordan117

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,306
Alabammy
So what about the special elections that historically have been a sign for upcoming main elections that all have been great for Dems? Just as the special elections for Rep for 2016.
Different electorate. Midterms, off-years, and specials have a much higher proportion of engaged, high-propensity voters. This used to benefit Republicans because these voters tend to be wealthier, but it's now benefiting Democrats because they're also more educated. General elections are going to have a greater number of people who voted based on vibes, the price of eggs, "Biden didn't protect abortion", etc., and Trump does surprisingly well with that cohort.
 
Sep 18, 2023
663
Why is it ridiculous? Like, I don't want to get brigaded here, but I don't think it would be insane to have someone else run instead of Biden. I don't know if there's really any historical precedent where an incumbent has opted to not run for a second term, but he's also the oldest president ever and I don't think it's deniable at all that we've witnessed several missteps as a result of his age. Do we really need to see a Mitch McConnell style freeze before we admit it? I feel like I'm alone in crazy town here. To be honest I personally don't think anyone over the age of 70 should even be allowed to run for office but perhaps that's just ageist. It's just so common for mental faculties to decline in those years that I don't understand why it's even an allowable risk.
The only reason it's ridiculous is that it's too late to do it. Like, for a practical example, they've already raised so much money for the "Biden-Harris Campaign" that is in DNC coffers. To use that money on a "Harris-Inslee" or whatever campaign would require a legal fight. They'd probably win that fight, but still—it's an example of how chaotic it would be to switch now.

What isn't ridiculous is to say someone else should've been chosen to run 2 years ago. Biden said many times he would be a "bridge president" and it has been clear for a long time that he's slowing down. By October/November last year as the genocide began in Gaza at the latest it should've been clear that he was a political liability. But the Dems all stood behind him instead.
I mean the guy who beat Trump once and has incumbency advantage is indeed going to run to the end.
Incumbency advantages are, from a statistical standpoint, kind of overrated. I mean, there's been a limited number of presidential elections, so the sample is pretty small. And no data points in that sample involve an 81yo incumbent.
Yes, they posted stories about it being released...and then crickets. Given the contents of the documents and how Trump is in them having a single blurb and then dropping it down the memory hole in favor of endless frontpage articles and OpEds about Biden. Where are the dozens of OpEds demanding he step down for raping a young girl in those documents?

As for headlines about Trump - there's a whole debate to not only fact check but to question *Trump's* mental acuity. I really think Democrats need to stop framing him as a liar and instead talk about how mentally weak and degraded he is. How he can't stand up to powerful foreign foes or keep his thoughts straight and just repeats the last thing he sees. Play the right's game and start questioning if Trump has dementia, and that's why he's just talking about nonsense endlessly. Everyone has just accepted that he's a liar and there's nothing that can be done, change the narrative to it's not his lying getting worse it's his mental state.
Again—none of that does anything. Newspapers posted dozens of opeds in 2015 and 16 about how the latest thing Trump did/said meant he had to step down. Or during the term about how the latest act he'd taken or the latest piece of sexual assault news meant it was imperative he be impeached and removed. None of that does anything! He is uniquely immune to attack. The media overall spent 2015-2020 at DEFCON 1 about how bad the things Trump was doing and saying were and acknowledging he needed to be stopped because he was a threat to democracy. That did absolutely nothing to peel Trump repubs and hold-your-nose repubs away from his voting block. And those attacks weren't what motivated the politically disengaged to come out for Biden—it was that Biden promised infrastructure improvements and to stop so many people from being killed by covid.

Look, obviously I don't think it would be inaccurate for the media to highlight Trump's insanity more. But in the past they have already gone as far as wondering if he has syphilitic dementia and pointing out how out of shape he is and how nonsensical his speech is. They covered the dementia tests thoroughly! It doesn't do anything to try and make the distinction between lying mental weakness, it doesn't matter to people. It's a known quantity and a played-out course of strategy.
 

Darren Lamb

Member
Dec 1, 2017
2,956
I think this is Trump's race to lose now. Polling is real bad for Biden in the states he needs to win and I'm not sure how you can convince people that your age isn't an issue when it's visible whenever he does or doesn't make an appearance.

I get the feeling that people are underpricing the risk of keeping Biden on the ticket.
 

Thordinson

Banned
Aug 1, 2018
19,222
So what about the special elections that historically have been a sign for upcoming main elections that all have been great for Dems? Just as the special elections for Rep for 2016.

Trump and Biden weren't on the ballot in the recent elections. Dems will do better overall than Biden will.

Biden is losing young voters when he had them +20 in 2020. I don't think looking at history is necessarily going to help.
 

Zimmiwood

The Wise Ones
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,335
Anyone thinking otherwise was being silly, to put it politely.

But yea, Biden is who we got, everyone needs to go and vote in November.
All that needs to be said. Instead of wasting time arguing about it that energy should be used to mobilize folks to vote despite their concerns.
 

Kyra

The Eggplant Queen
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,927
New York City
It's do or die. He has to win or we are finished and the world will suffer. Trump will make sure the pain will reach as far and wide as possible.
 

Skel1ingt0n

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,960
There's literally no other choice that even has a modicum of a chance at bringing a dem win this November.

The amount of times I heard folks on the right say "so he's not good enough to be the candidate but he IS good enough to be president if he's not replaced?" was insane. And we all know why that argument doesn't make a lot of sense, but it would be damn near impossible to fight if he were to get flipped with someone else.

This was the right call. Now the dude just needs to be in absolute top form in his next several public appearances.
 

tuffy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,594
The reaction to this whole thing is far more embarrassing than the actual debate performance itself.

Trump could piss himself onstage and half the GOP would piss themselves in solidarity, doubling down on their candidate at every opportunity.

Whereas some Dem voters are still waiting for some mythical Generic Candidate™ to ride in on a white horse to save the day instead of getting unified and concentrating on winning back here in the real world.
 
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