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Nintendo FY3/2019 Q4 Earnings Release, Switch HW 16.95M, FY3/2020 forecast Switch HW 18M

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ggx2ac

ggx2ac

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Oct 25, 2017
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Note: M = Million (or rather 10^6)

4th Quarter Earnings Release: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2019/190425e.pdf

For the fiscal year ended March 31st, 2019:

Code: 
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                 |  This Quarter | FY Cumulative          |FY3/19 Forecast|FY3/20 Forecast|
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Net Sales       |   ¥203,265M   | ¥1,200,560M   (~$10.7B)| ¥1,200,000M   | ¥1,250,000M   |
| Operating Income|    ¥29,672M   |  ¥249,701M    (~$2.23B)|   ¥225,000M   |   ¥260,000M   |
| Net Profit      |    ¥25,224M   |  ¥194,009M    (~$1.73B)|   ¥165,000M   |   ¥180,000M   |
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+


Capital Adequacy Ratio: 83.4%
Current Assets: 1,344,972¥ million
Current Liabilities: 245,009¥ million
Cash and deposits: 845,550¥ million
Shareholder's equity: 1,422,260¥ million
Inventories: 135,470¥ million


Hardware sales units: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

Code: 
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|      Switch     |  This Quarter | FY Cumulative |      LTD      |FY3/19 Forecast|FY3/20 Forecast|
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Hardware (units)|      2.46M    |     16.95M    |     34.74M    |      17.0M    |      18.0M    |
| Software (units)|     23.91M    |    118.55M    |    187.52M    |     110.0M    |     125.0M    |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
(Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software.)
###
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|       3DS       |  This Quarter | FY Cumulative |      LTD      |FY3/19 Forecast|FY3/20 Forecast|
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Hardware (units)|      0.24M    |      2.55M    |     75.08M    |       2.6M    |       1.0M    |
| Software (units)|      2.14M    |     13.22M    |    378.12M    |      13.0M    |       5.0M    |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
(Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software.)
###
+------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                                       |  This Quarter  | FY Cumulative |
+------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Smart devices, IP related income, etc.|    ¥12,624M    |   ¥46,008M    |
+------------------------------------------------------------------------+
(Includes income from smart-device content and royalty income.)


Nintendo no longer lists the following which was showed Nintendo's share of Pokémon Go's earnings:
Share of profit of entities accounted for using equity method

The above is now combined with Other and it can no longer be determined how much earnings are made from Pokémon Go.


Supplemental information:
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2019/190425_3e.pdf

Code: 
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                                          | This Quarter  | FY Cumulative |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Proportion of overseas sales             |     78.7%     |     77.9%     |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------+
(※ Proportion of overseas(outside of Japan) sales to total sales)
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Proportion of hardware sales             |     51.1%     |     58.4%     |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------+
(※ Proportion of hardware(including accessories) sales to total
dedicated videogame platform sales)
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Proportion of first party software sales |     80.3%     |     83.8%     |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------+
(※ Proportion of first-party software sales to total dedicated video
game software sales)
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Digital Sales                            |    ¥34.6B     |    ¥118.8B     |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------+
(※ Digital sales include downloadable versions of packaged software,
download-only software, add-on content and Nintendo Switch Online.)
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Proportion of Digital Sales              |     37.2%     |     24.8%     |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------+
(※ Proportion of digital sales to total dedicated
video game software sales )

Code: 
+--------------------------------------------------+
| Switch HW Shipments WW |    Units   | Percentage |
+--------------------------------------------------+
| Japan                  |    8.23M   |     24%    |
| The Americas           |   14.01M   |     40%    |
| Other                  |    12.5M   |     36%    |
+--------------------------------------------------+
###
+----------------------------------------------------------------+
| New Titles (Switch)    | This Quarter  | FY Cumulative |  LTD  |
+----------------------------------------------------------------+
| Japan                  |      53       |      215      |  298  |
| The Americas           |      68       |      280      |  385  |
| Other                  |      64       |      269      |  379  |
+----------------------------------------------------------------+

Million-Seller Titles of Nintendo Products (this fiscal year):

Code: 
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Title                                   |  FY Japan   | FY Overseas |  FY Global  | Global LTD  |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze    |    0.29M    |    1.96M    |    2.25M    |    2.25M    |
| Mario Tennis Aces                       |    0.55M    |     2.09M    |    2.64M    |    2.64M    |
| Mario Kart 8 Deluxe                     |    0.89M    |    6.57M    |     7.47M    |   16.69M    |
| The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild |    0.47M    |    3.83M    |    4.3M    |   12.77M    |
| Super Mario Oddysey                     |    0.34M    |    3.7M    |    4.04M    |   14.44M    |
| Splatoon 2                              |    0.83M    |    1.86M    |    2.69M    |    8.7M    |
| Octopath Traveler                       |     0.0M    |    1.17M    |    1.17M    |    1.17M    |
| Super Mario Party                       |    1.22M    |    5.18M    |     6.4M    |     6.4M    |
| Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee          |    1.93M    |    8.7M    |    10.63M    |    10.63M    |
| Super Smash Bros. Ultimate              |    3.53M    |    10.28M    |   13.81M    |   13.81M    |
| Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 01: Variety Kit   |    0.33M    |    0.76M    |    1.09M    |    1.09M    |
| Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker          |    0.24M    |    0.94M    |    1.18M    |    1.18M    |
| Mario Kart 7 (3DS)                      |    0.07M    |     1.15M    |    1.21M    |   18.26M    |
| New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe          |    0.69M    |     2.63M    |    3.31M    |   3.31M    |
| Kirby Star Allies                       |    0.36M    |     0.94M    |    1.3M    |   2.56M    |
| Yoshi's Crafted World                   |    0.14M    |     0.96M    |    1.11M    |   1.11M    |
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+



Top selling title sales units as of March 31st, 2019:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html

Code: 
+----------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Switch - Top Selling Titles (units)      | This Quarter|     LTD     |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Mario Kart 8 Deluxe                      |    1.67M    |   16.69M    |
| Super Mario Odyssey                      |    0.68M    |   14.44M    |
| Super Smash Bros. Ultimate               |   1.73M    |   13.81M    |
| The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild  |     1.09M    |   12.77M    |
| Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee           |    0.63M    |    10.63M    |
| Splatoon 2                               |     0.43M    |    8.7M    |
| Super Mario Party                        |     1.1M    |     6.4M    |
| New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe             |    3.31M    |    3.31M    |
| 1-2-Switch                               |    0.11M    |    2.97M    |
| Mario Tennis Aces                        |    0.11M    |    2.64M    |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------+
###
+----------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 3DS - Top Selling Titles (units)         | This Quarter|     LTD     |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Mario Kart 7                             |    0.15M    |   18.26M    |
| Pokémon X/Y                              |    0.02M    |   16.39M    |
| Pokémon Sun/Moon                         |    0.01M    |   16.15M    |
| Pokémon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire        |    0.02M    |   14.19M    |
| New Super Mario Bros. 2                  |    0.08M    |   13.16M    |
| Super Mario 3D Land                      |    0.09M    |   12.5M    |
| Animal Crossing: New Leaf                |    0.11M    |    12.21M    |
| Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS       |     0.04M    |    9.49M    |
| Pokémon Ultra Sun/Ultra Moon             |    0.09M    |    8.37M    |
| Tomodachi Life                           |     0.05M    |     6.45M    |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------+


News:
Combined with steadily-growing sales of titles released during previous fiscal
years and titles released by other software publishers, the total number of million-seller titles during this fiscal year recorded 23.

Nintendo Entertainment System: NES Classic Edition
and Super Nintendo Entertainment System: Super NES Classic Edition recorded total sales of 5.95 million units.

Turning to our digital business for dedicated video game platforms, sales of download versions of packaged software and download-
only software for Nintendo Switch showed especially good growth, bringing digital sales to 118.8 billion yen (95.4% increase on a
year-on-year basis).
 
Last edited:
mjw

mjw

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Oct 27, 2017
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So they still didn't hit the revised forecast? I'm actually a bit shocked, they must have really overshipped last quarter
 
Zedark

Zedark

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Oct 25, 2017
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Incredible, how much did they overship in the first three quarters? It really boggles the mind considering the incredible sell-through this quarter has seen (from what we can tell in Japan and US, at least).
 
ShinobiBk

ShinobiBk

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Dec 28, 2017
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A few things I've noticed

- Let's Go had to be massively overshipped in Q4 cause they had it at 10mil after last quarter and now it's only at 10.63? How is that even possible? That is no legs at all
 

Nuclear Muffin

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
4,721
Yay! Labo Variety Kit broke 1 million and Tropical Freeze broke 2 million! :D

Super Mario Party is also starting to nip at the heels of MP8 and MPDS...
 
Bitch Pudding

Bitch Pudding

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Oct 25, 2017
4,202
<17m is quite below their very ownforecast of 20mn, may explain why they are keen to introduce a new entry-level Switch SKU soon. Which will surely give the console & software a huge boost.
 
SinCityAssassin

SinCityAssassin

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Oct 25, 2017
15,174
mjw said:
So they still didn't hit the revised forecast? I actually a bit shocked, they must have really overshipped last quarter
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Indeed, quite a shock.

Bitch Pudding said:
<17m is quite below their very ownforecast of 20mn, may explain why they are keen to introduce a new entry-level Switch SKU soon. Which will surely give the console & software a huge boost.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

No they revised it to 17 mil in January, still lower though.

A lesser, but still shock is Yoshi hitting a million in 2 days.
 
Last edited:
Jon Carter

Jon Carter

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Oct 27, 2017
5,746
Damn, everyone was saying 17 m was overly conservative and they couldn't even hit that. Very surprising.
 
Dwebble

Dwebble

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Oct 25, 2017
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ShinobiBk said:
A few things I've noticed

- Let's Go had to be massively overshipped in Q4 cause they had it at 10mil after last quarter and now it's only at 10.63? How is that even possible? That is no legs at all
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
The fact that the last figure was 10 million dead hinted that they hadn't sold the initial shipment.

Still a good raw figure, of course, but standard Pokémon legs are nowhere to be seen.
 
CaviarMeths

CaviarMeths

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Oct 25, 2017
10,655
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Yeah, looks like they probably overshipped Q1-3. Makes me wonder why they didn't revise their forecast down earlier than they did.

Also lol @ Pokemon legs. Oh well.

Rest of the software stories are nice though!
 

Deleted member 2426

user requested account closure
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Oct 25, 2017
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They THOUGHT Pokémon Let's Go would be a hit. Bad numbers, hopefully they do much better than 18M in year 3. They should be doing 25M.
 
UltraMagnus

UltraMagnus

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Oct 27, 2017
15,670
Hardware sales are still solid, but without being a "gimmick" system as the Wii/DS were in getting soccer moms/expanded audience (not saying that in a positive or negative way), it's very hard to hit 20+ million a year unless you have good third party support. You can't just rely on one publisher basically doing 90% of the heavy lifting, even if that publisher is Nintendo, they only have so many franchises and so many dev teams.
 
Wijuci

Wijuci

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Jan 16, 2018
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Paronth

Paronth

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Oct 25, 2017
268
That mean they have overshipped in Q3, otherwise they have largely overestimated for 2019 but 18M for 2020? With a much better lineup than last year, ~30% better sales in this quarter and the cheapest switch mini they can expect between 20 to 25M easily.
 
TheGreatMightyPoo

TheGreatMightyPoo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,070
Wijuci said:
Yeah for 2019.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
giphy.gif
 
ShinobiBk

ShinobiBk

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Dec 28, 2017
10,132
Yes, they overshipped in Q4 2018 but also you can't expect to move significant hardware when NSMBU and Yoshi 2 days before the quarter ends are your biggest releases.
Big first party titles are what pushes Switch hardware.
 
Mbolibombo

Mbolibombo

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Oct 29, 2017
7,043
While I did expect a bit higher on hardware and PLG, NSMBUDX overall numbers look great.

Smash, Zelda and MK8DX are total beasts
 

Nuclear Muffin

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Oct 29, 2017
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That cash warchest is back up by another cool billion. Not long until all of the damage done by Wii U is erased!
 

Bowser

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Nov 7, 2017
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18m for this fiscal year seems quite conservative, unless there is no super cheap SKU releasing.
 
plusaflag

plusaflag

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Jan 7, 2019
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In more positive news, the software/hardware ratio approached 10 last quarter. That's definitely healthy. Players keep using their Switches and buying games for it.
And going by this trend, their software forcast for the current FY is really conservative.

edit :

The software digital shares were soaring last quarter:
unbenanntvlj8u.png

There is a good chance the trend will continue and maybe (maybe) will the eShop revenue start being comparable to the ones made by the competition this fiscal year.
 
Last edited:
Dwebble

Dwebble

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Oct 25, 2017
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ShinobiBk said:
Yes, they overshipped in Q4 2018 but also you can't expect to move significant hardware when NSMBU and Yoshi 2 days before the quarter ends are your biggest releases.
Big first party titles are what pushes Switch hardware.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
They did ship significant hardware, though- both Japanese and US sales, along with the limited picture we have of European markets, points to that.

It would have been a very good HW Q1 if not for the stuffed channels.
 
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