Metroid Dread... Possible MAJOR Breakout for the Frachise? (Like 5mil Lifetime)

[Tbone5189]

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⛔️ Pls don't Thread in this Dread ⛔️

First of all, to make things clear, if this game clears 2mil-3mil it's a major success. I'm talking about mainly if Metroid dread can pull the franchise in a way like AC/LoZ did for their franchises.

This thread is just saying that can this game really make the frachise more Boom in terms of success rather than maybe breaking previous record in sales


Anywayzzz List of Metroid Games that are the best sellers

2.82mil Metroid Prime (GCN)
2.73mil Metroid (NES)
1.76mil Metroid 2 (GB)
1.68mil Metroid Fusion (GBA)

Metroid Dread had a huge push and was the biggest surprise of Nintendo E3

seems Nintendo is really pushing this game as well as the reception (so far) has been positive.

Post your thoughts and how much you think it'll do lifetime WW

 

[Solid SOAP]

I'm gonna give it a safe 3.5 mil. Itll be successful, but it wont explode like Animal Crossing did.

Either way Nintendo are showing that they're willing to cater to their hardcore fans with this game. Tons of respect for releasing a side scrolling Metroid game on their modern console.

 

[malaiseforever]

Well I really hope so. I'd like to see this series survive well into the future.

 

[Skittzo]

I think 3-3.5M is safe but I'm ready to be impressed and see it over 5m.

 

[Spring-Loaded]

It's primed for success releasing on Switch. The only circumstances that would've propelled it further would be releasing alongside the Switch successor.

Pr1me wasn't even a launch game, and it sold the most of the series on one of the less-selling consoles. Anything releasing on Switch has a much higher ceiling than that, let alone a series with a diehard base who are clamouring for it

 

[Renna Hazel]

Nah, Prime could have done it, but this one won't.

 

[whiskeyjack-YT]

It'll be hard. Samus' new design is kinda edgycool, but remains quite generic 3D generated character for lots of peeps who haven't grown with her.

I mean, if you look at the cover without all the nostalgia kicking in... who gets interested about this Ms. Generic McGeneric ?

 

[NotLiquid]

I don't think it'll end up being one of Nintendo's evergreens, and in those cases Nintendo's insistence on not cutting the price of games tend to work against long term legs (ARMS, Origami King, Astral Chain, etc.), but I think Dread will easily become the biggest Metroid game so far. The franchise's word-of-mouth is stronger than its ever been, bolstered by a strong showing, and Metroidvania is bigger than it ever was. 3 mil seems like the safest bet, especially looking at performance of other iconic 2D revivals on Switch like Link's Awakening. Beyond that, who knows.

 

[Orayn]

I voted 3M. I think it'll do solidly in absolute terms and could set a record for the series due to being an unexpected revival with a good initial showing.

 

[Kalor]

5 million is a lot. It could maybe become the best selling at 3 million but I don't think it'd go higher than that.

 

[TheMoon]

I mean, sure would love it but let's calm down with lofty expectations like this^^

 

[Future Gazer]

It's not gonna double the sales of Prime lmao. And Metroid has notoriously weaker legs than most other Nintendo franchises, so 3 million is probably the absolute ceiling.

 

[Starwing]

I'd be over the moon if it made only a million. I be shocked and elated if it goes over a quarter of that.

 

[Bard]

I'm gonna give it a safe 3.5 mil. Itll be successful, but it wont explode like Animal Crossing did.

Either way Nintendo are showing that they're willing to cater to their hardcore fans with this game. Tons of respect for releasing a side scrolling Metroid game on their modern console.

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This is an odd comparison, there's only a handful of games that could even compare to Animal Crossing in this regard, even if it wasn't for Covid AC would have cleared probably 15 million easily. As much as I love Metroid, it was never going to reach anywhere near those numbers because people are heathens with trash taste it's much more niche.

I think at the very most it might do around 3 million if things go very well well. Depends on how much all of the good will games like Hollow Knight and others in the metroidvania genre were able to generate during the time Metroid has been somewhat absent.

 

[MarcelloF]

5 million? Try 5 BILLION.

 

[Bony Manifesto]

I think it's going to be a slow starter, as I reckon $60 for a fairly budget-looking 2D Metroidvania is going to be a tough sell when the genre is so well-represented in the indie space. Though a few years and a few discounts later, and I can certainly see it competing to be the biggest-selling Metroid game.

 

[Krypt]

Yes 5mil life is what i expect. Time forr Metriovania or Super Metriod Fans to show support.

 

[Sir Hound]

I don't think it's gonna do too well (by 20's Nintendo standards). Maybe 2 mil? I think Prime 4 has a better chance of being a breakout hit, I don't know how many people are into Metroid but I think Prime has a better chance of bringing in regular gamers.

 

[FlaygletheBagel]

At a price any lower than $60 I would've voted 5m easy. But when you've got Metroidvanias like Hollow Knight or Ori or Axiom Verge routinely launching at sub-$40, even I'm sitting here like…. Do I really want to pay full price for this? And I like Metroid a lot.

Hopefully I'm wrong because I'd love to see more Metroid but yeah. I'm expecting a more modest success I think.

 

[ghostcrew]

I don't think it'll end up being one of Nintendo's evergreens, and in those cases Nintendo's insistence on not cutting the price of games tend to work against long term legs (ARMS, Origami King, Astral Chain, etc.), but I think Dread will easily become the biggest Metroid game so far. The franchise's word-of-mouth is stronger than its ever been, bolstered by a strong showing, and Metroidvania is bigger than it ever was. 3 mil seems like the safest bet, especially looking at performance of other iconic 2D revivals on Switch like Link's Awakening. Beyond that, who knows.

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My thoughts exactly.

Not one of the big evergreen titles but Metroid (well, specifically Samus) has never had so much mindshare, in large parts thanks to the continued success of Smash Bros. Seriously, any Smash kid knows Samus thanks to that game.

Will do very well compared to other games in the franchise I think. This isn't Animal Crossing or Zelda though.

 

[YaBish]

I think it'll mostly depend on critical reception and word of mouth to see how far this goes. $60 doesn't help it either, given the pricing of its indie counterparts.

 

[JoRu]

I think 2 million is a reasonable hope. Anything above that would be very impressive.

 

[Kolx]

A 2-D game for $60 is gonna be a tough sell to the mainstream, but I think there're enough Nintendo/metroid fans to push it past the 3 million. Whether it hits 5 million depends on critical reception and word of mouth.

 

[Ravager777]

I think around 1 million copies unless Nintendo put serious effort in marketing this game. Doubt it will sell anywhere close to the sales of Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze on Switch which seems to be around 3 millions.

 

[Kcannon]

Considering that more popular series like Donkey Kong, Kirby or Fire Emblem have just recently hit 3 million after years in the market, it's doubtful Metroid can get anywhere close to 5 million.

It could get to 3 million, perhaps 3.5 million but with lots of luck. Even Hollow Knight hasn't hit those numbers yet and it's much cheaper.

 

[Leo]

I'm confident it can make about 4 million, and hopeful it will reach 5 million.

 

[Jockel]

It's made by MercurySteam, so I'd guess the numbers won't stray too far from Samus Returns. Probably a bit more since Switch is in a way better place than the 3DS was at the time of release.

 

[hog]

I think Era is very much overestimating this series' mainstream appeal here. It'll do pretty well but it's not going to blow minds.

 

[Mivey]

Honestly, as a Metroid fan, I hope it sells gangbusters, but I'm not expecting it, since we live in a cruel, dark world.

 

[unicornKnight]

Voted 3. I can see Prime 4 at 5 millions. Of course there are many factors, nothing is predetermined.

 

[FolderBrad]

Isn't Metroid still sorta unpopular in Japan? And some of those other Metroid games seemed far more visually impressive for their systems at the time.

I think it's an old franchise that less people might remember than you think. I also think a single player only side scrolling game at 60 bucks might have less appeal when other games on the system look more impressive or have a wider appeal.

No way it sells 5 million

 

[oliverandm]

These types of games have their fans. But there's also a lot of competition. Metroid isn't Mario and it isn't Zelda. I would personally be surprised with +2 mil. In any case, I will be buying!

 

[Euler007]

Maybe not 5 but close. I would hope so, it's a big name in the industry and big names are selling well in the last few years.

 

[Renna Hazel]

I think Era is very much overestimating this series' mainstream appeal here. It'll do pretty well but it's not going to blow minds.

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Based on the poll, Era isn't expecting it to blow minds

 

[z1ggy]

1 mill~ is guaranteed, lifetime around 3 mill

This is the chance for the IP to start hitting the major leagues and push Metroid Prime 4 into the 7 mill~ zone.

 

[JershJopstin]

Hard to say. On one hand, lots of franchises have done best on Switch. On the other, it's still games in the Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, and AC IPs above 5M; only Splatoon (which is clearly staying in that range) and Ring Fit are exceptions. There's a rather sharp drop-off too, with nothing between 3.5M and 5M.

I will say that Metroid Dread has a lot going for it, especially compared to Samus Returns. While the latter was a 3DS game that shared its first holiday with the Switch and BotW, Odyssey, and Xenoblade, Metroid Dread is just about the only brand-new single player game with some form of narrative from Nintendo not only this fall, but this year. It's in prime (heh) position to pick up some new stray fans, and I think you're already seeing some of the effects of that with the mind share the game has after E3. A lot of people that would normally be talking about something else just don't have that something else.

 

[YozoraXV]

3ml if Nintendo does no mainstream marketing over 5ml if they do.

1st party Switch software always sells millions.

 

[Shelbyville Milhouse]

It's 60€ for a 2D Metroidvania
2 - 3 million is the meximum

 

[sredgrin]

Just cuz it has 80 pages of an OT doesn't mean that's translating out of here. Still has to battle being a low selling franchise + 60 dollars for a side scrolling game competing with some greats that sell for like 20 bucks.

It'll probably do the best the franchise has done (until prime 4) simply by existing and being on the Switch, but I don't see it doing much past say, Fire Emblem or Xenoblade.

 

[PS9]

Didn't we have this thread yesterday?

 

[Tbone5189]

5 million is a lot. It could maybe become the best selling at 3 million but I don't think it'd go higher than that.

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That seems to be the general state of mind for the game so it's cool

I mean, sure would love it but let's calm down with lofty expectations like this^^

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It's not an expectation, more as a "can it" question. Expectations are 2mil estimate with some optimistic of 3mil.

It's not gonna double the sales of Prime lmao. And Metroid has notoriously weaker legs than most other Nintendo franchises, so 3 million is probably the absolute ceiling.

Click to shrink...

it doesn't need to double it, under double is fine 😉

also BotW going to quadruple the previous best selling Zelda lifetime :P

 

[bixente]

Yeah afaik Metroid is unpopular in Japan. As opposed to Nintendo's other ips, which have worldwide appeal. It'll have to do well in America and Europe.

 

[SaberVS7]

1.5Mil at most.

I've been in rabbit holes like this multiple times before, and been burnt each time. Revived cult-classic sequel gets a fuckton of hype from its fans, "this is going to be the one that makes the series popular!" and then it bombs horrifically. Every. Time.

Cult Classic IPs like this will always be Cult Classic IPs - The only time they ever escape from Cult Classic status is by selling their soul and completely losing what that Cult Classic audience loved it for.

 

[HMS_Pinafore]

I think the safe prediction is between 2-4 Million.

Also I find the whole discourse around whether Switch owners will spend $60 on a 2D game when a average port of NSMB U is selling like hotcakes.

 

[JershJopstin]

Just cuz it has 80 pages of an OT doesn't mean that's translating out of here. Still has to battle being a low selling franchise + 60 dollars for a side scrolling game competing with some greats that sell for like 20 bucks.

It'll probably do the best the franchise has done (until prime 4) simply by existing and being on the Switch, but I don't see it doing much past say, Fire Emblem or Xenoblade.

Click to shrink...

What else are existing Switch owners that are fans of single player games buying this year?

SMTV?

 

[rzmunch]

I'm hoping for a breakout of 3m (voted) maybe is stars align 4m.
All I want is nintendo to be happh so we get more Metroid.

 

[HMS_Pinafore]

What else are existing Switch owners that are fans of single player games buying this year?

SMTV?

Click to shrink...

Pokemon

 

[Vault]

Also I find the whole discourse around whether Switch owners will spend $60 on a 2D game when a average port of NSMB U is selling like hotcakes.

Click to shrink...

Mario and Metroid aren't even in the same stratosphere sales wise

 

[Deleted member 5491]

Samus has gotten a lot of exposure in Smash and is well known there.
To call her generic in a time full of angry white middleage men with short hair is also quite a reach like someone here did.
People are hungry for games on Switch and I guess this will help Metroid, as well as being features as their big October/November game.
Compare it to the Wii with the third installment of a sub-series, a shitty game or the 3DS with "just" a remake on a platform that was as good as dead,
the Switch is still going strong.
The market for Metroidvanias also expanded over the years and I'm sure more people are willing to play a game of the franchise that founded this genre.
Then again 2D might help in Japan more, but I think a proper Prime in a 3D world is more appealing in the west.

3 mill could be and I hope for even more

 

[Comic Obsessed]

No.