impingu1984

Member
Oct 31, 2017
3,631
UK
So many hoops we are jumping though when we could ... You know.... Just stop oil

It's not the easy option but is the correct one
 

CardsFall

Member
Jul 31, 2021
207
I'm currently 2/3 of the way through Termination Shock and boy does that seem more and more on point with some of the recent news.
 

BlackGoku03

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,299
Gotta attack climate change from every angle. There isn't one big solution unfortunately, there are 10,000 little ones.

So I support this as long as its done responsibly
Me as well. We need to keep experimenting and finding small solutions.

There is no all or nothing approach to this. No one big solution. Never will be.
 

Kyuur

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,575
Canada
Gotta attack climate change from every angle. There isn't one big solution unfortunately, there are 10,000 little ones.

So I support this as long as its done responsibly

This is my take as well. It's become obvious that energy reduction / power source pivots aren't going to happen fast enough or consistently across the globe so we should absolutely explore alternatives.
 

Dark Knight

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
20,143
But science saves lives... it could save us all. Your own life has been vastly improved by science. Yes, science is also responsible for nightmarish ends as well, but that's the point - your sentiment is a gross generalization and oversimplification of an entire concept and field of human activity. It's like saying "god I hate humanity".. there are too many good people that exist to outright condemn the entire species.
 

gozu

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,442
America
As a retired climate scientist, I am against geoengineering such as SAI or microscopic salt particles on a global scale for the following reasons:

  • incentivizes corportations/nations to continue emitting GHGs
  • unintended consequences violates (ENMOD)
  • unintended consequences can be used by adversaies as a pretense for invasion/conflict (increasing geopolitical instability)
  • everyone has to be on board because if not, unintended consequences will inadvertantly be proof of concept of climate warfare
  • potential devastating environmental, economical, and ecological costs
  • on economical costs: geoengineering produces an undesirable consequence of a 'below normal' monsoon season for India, devastating their agriculture business. Who pays for it? Now project that out to multiple countries with multiple unintended consequences
  • will not stop ocean acidification
From the OP:


I will break this down Barney style:

I will use the analogy of a pot of boiling water.

Let the burner be the Sun, the water in the pot be fossil fuels, steam be greenhouse gases, and the lid as microscopic salt particles in the atmosphere. If "geoengineering efforts were discontinued before GHGs decrease to manageable levels" is akin to removing the lid from the pot of boiling water.

Congratulations, now all the steam escapes into the atmosphere with the potential of rapid warming taking place.

Again, I will reiterate that my criticism is the use of SAI/microscopic salts on a global scale.




At a local level, yes. On a global scale is a different story altogther though.

What is outlined in the OP is similar to SAI (sulfate aerosol injection) because the intended effects are the same (reflecting sunlight).


https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1000289
In essence, the cure is worse than the disease.

Here are more reasons why geoengineering may be a bad idea.

If society is going to use geoengineering such as SAI/microscopic salt particles, we have to reduce GHGs, full stop.

But therein lies the problem.

So you're saying the solution is to travel back to the past and change human nature?

I agree, there are only bad or terrible options left.
 

DarthMasta

Member
Feb 17, 2018
4,871
All these things have a probability of doing more harm than good, but I think that once climate change is truly something that people are feeling and can scream at politicians to fix, this sort of thing will happen more frequently, especially some stuff that they say can have lots of upsides and is "cheap" to implement.
 

JetmanJay

Member
Nov 1, 2017
3,661
My first thought of this is that scene in Animatrix where humanity darkens the skies, and it fucks them up.
 

Afrikan

Member
Oct 28, 2017
18,316
The move led by researchers at the University of Washington has renewed questions about how to effectively and ethically study promising climate technologies that could also harm communities and ecosystems in unexpected ways.

So um.... why not do it from Seattle or some other spot on the coast of Washington? 🤨
 

andymoogle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,649
We've had decades to get a solution in place. But let's see if we can fuck up the planet in other ways before the obvious answer to climate change.
 

Typhon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,323
Except this is bad science whose only use is to distract us from the only real solution (decrease carbon emissions).

You can easily educate yourself on why a lot of climate scientists are against geoengineering even in this very thread.

At least these are real scientists and not whatever the fuck these guys are.

www.theverge.com

Geoengineering startup’s claim it got ‘OKs to launch’ from the FAA doesn’t stand up to scrutiny

After Mexico barred their experiments, the startup launched balloons in US.
 

Morrigan

Spear of the Metal Church
Member
Oct 24, 2017
35,293
Reading the OP and I wasn't thrilled at the idea at all. I'm open to new ideas to combat climate change, but using unproven science that messes with climate even more sounds like a disaster in waiting. It could literally make things worse, FFS

And yeah it's typical of trying to fix a symptom rather than the cause

In essence, the cure is worse than the disease.
Yeah that was my takeaway too, and that was before I read your rebuttal. Damn.
 

jungius

Self-Requested Ban
Banned
Sep 5, 2021
2,738
this will lead to war between nations tbh and also no guarantee this will work

I know this is hail mary kins of things but there will be compromise in some regions and I imagine those countries wont take it nicely
 

Nepenthe

When the music hits, you feel no pain.
Administrator
Oct 25, 2017
22,483
No one wants to live in the world that would result if we "just stopped oil"

Billions of humans that currently exist could not exist in that world.
We have no idea what the world would be like if there was a genuine push to phase out fossil fuels and actually implement ecologically and anti-colonial systems of production and transportation.

Beyond less extreme weather, species extinction, and overall deaths that are happening year after year from the heat and conflict alone. That shit would go down.
 

Dog of Bork

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,111
Texas
We have no idea what the world would be like if there was a genuine push to phase out fossil fuels and actually implement ecologically and anti-colonial systems of production and transportation.

Beyond less extreme weather, species extinction, and overall deaths that are happening year after year from the heat and conflict alone. That shit would go down.
You're right. We should build toward a world that isn't reliant on fossil fuels. But it doesn't make sense to pretend that "Just stop using them" is a real plan, unless we want to pick a few billion people to sacrifice first (and yes, continued use of fossil fuels without transitioning to alternatives will also lead to mass loss of life).

We need to find clever ways to mitigate the impact of our continued reliance on fossil fuels while we find alternatives. Stopping the tap without a replacement is not something anyone will ever do - no society will deliberately accept reverting to standards of living we haven't seen since the 19th century.

It will take longer than anyone hopes for that transition to take place. I'm not particularly fond of this example of geoengineering, but I believe we are going to need every trick we can come up with to mitigate climate change.
 

plagiarize

Entering pupa stage
On Break
Oct 25, 2017
28,422
Cape Cod, MA
The window to avoid the need for geoengineering sadly closed. Frankly I wish we had acted sooner so it could have been avoided.

But I think at this point we have little choice.
 

Nepenthe

When the music hits, you feel no pain.
Administrator
Oct 25, 2017
22,483
You're right. We should build toward a world that isn't reliant on fossil fuels. But it doesn't make sense to pretend that "Just stop using them" is a real plan, unless we want to pick a few billion people to sacrifice first (and yes, continued use of fossil fuels without transitioning to alternatives will also lead to mass loss of life).

We need to find clever ways to mitigate the impact of our continued reliance on fossil fuels while we find alternatives. Stopping the tap without a replacement is not something anyone will ever do - no society will deliberately accept reverting to standards of living we haven't seen since the 19th century.

It will take longer than anyone hopes for that transition to take place. I'm not particularly fond of this example of geoengineering, but I believe we are going to need every trick we can come up with to mitigate climate change.
Plenty of communities and countries are already living substandard lives even with fossil fuels though. That's not unique to a no-oil world.

And the countries coasting off of all the oil and blood it takes to get it are riddled with unhealthy systems and pathologies anyway. Like cool, the world we've built off of fossil fuels and road systems allows you to get a video game console with one-day shipping from Amazon. Do you have any meaningful relationships with other human beings? A job that pays you what you're (actually) worth? Good healthcare? Walkable infrastructure? Are you a minority?

Like, toss a stone at any thread on Era and you will find it riddled with people who are just ridiculously unhappy for one reason or another, even under a Western standard of living. What are those people losing if you're unable to waste as much because the systems at play don't allow you to, or have to take more public transportation, or you can't do one-day shipping anymore?

I don't know about you, but if you told me getting rid of fossil fuels meant I could have a better life by the standards that actually promote healthier, happier living, and not just the ones that facilitate mindless consumerism and dangerous travel along highways built over my ancestors ' homes, I would make the trade in a heartbeat. And frankly, I don't think you're ever going to move the needle as much as you need to if you're defaulting to the alternatives always resulting in a worse standard of living anyway. That we have to keep up this ridiculous system of production and waste or else we are worse off. We have to actually be more optimistic and imaginative.

Of course, "just stopping" isn't feasible right now because way too many systems rely on oil, but it should still be the utmost goal to work towards. Because we're going to run out of oil anyway if we keep this up. And then what? It isn't our problem because that's too far off? The worst climate change predictions are slated for 2100. Do we just kick the can down the road more than what we are doing now because most of us will be dead by then? Of course not.

No oil is the finish line.
 

Fallout-NL

Member
Oct 30, 2017
7,477
Weird timing to have just read the chapter of Kim Stanley Robinson's climate change science fiction book Ministry for the Future where India undertakes an initiative to disperse aerosols in the atmosphere to uncertain consequence.

That book is disturbingly too close to non-fiction.

Also see Neal Stephenson's Termination Shock

Excellent books.
 

Xavien

Unshakable Resolve
Member
Nov 3, 2017
420
in unrelated news, a wealthy billionaire magnate commisioned the start of work on the longest train self-sustaining train in existence.
 

GS_Dan

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,085
For more on this subject and some convincing arguments for why this kind of approach is generally A Bad Idea, I'd recommend this podcast co-hosted by the chap who runs the Climate Town YouTube channel:

We Shall Blot Out The Sun! - The Climate Denier's Playbook

From the minds that brought you Climate Town, comes… a podcast that's suspiciously similar to Climate Town.Rollie Williams (Climate Town) and Nicole Conlan (The Daily Show) are two comedians with Master's Degrees in Climate Science & Policy and Urban Planning. But don’t get too excited, because...
 

eathdemon

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,690
As a retired climate scientist, I am against geoengineering such as SAI or microscopic salt particles on a global scale for the following reasons:

  • incentivizes corportations/nations to continue emitting GHGs
  • unintended consequences violates (ENMOD)
  • unintended consequences can be used by adversaries as a pretense for invasion/conflict (increasing geopolitical instability)
  • everyone has to be on board because if not, unintended consequences will inadvertantly be proof of concept of climate warfare
  • potential devastating environmental, economical, and ecological costs
  • on economical costs: geoengineering produces an undesirable consequence of a 'below normal' monsoon season for India, devastating their agriculture business. Who pays for it? Now project that out to multiple countries with multiple unintended consequences
  • will not stop ocean acidification
From the OP:


I will break this down Barney style:

I will use the analogy of a pot of boiling water.

Let the burner be the Sun, the water in the pot be fossil fuels, steam be greenhouse gases, and the lid as microscopic salt particles in the atmosphere. If "geoengineering efforts were discontinued before GHGs decrease to manageable levels" is akin to removing the lid from the pot of boiling water.

Congratulations, now all the steam escapes into the atmosphere with the potential of rapid warming taking place.

Again, I will reiterate that my criticism is the use of SAI/microscopic salts on a global scale.




At a local level, yes. On a global scale is a different story altogther though.

What is outlined in the OP is similar to SAI (sulfate aerosol injection) because the intended effects are the same (reflecting sunlight).


https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1000289
In essence, the cure is worse than the disease.

Here are more reasons why geoengineering may be a bad idea.

If society is going to use geoengineering such as SAI/microscopic salt particles, we have to reduce GHGs, full stop.

But therein lies the problem.
isnt the problem that even a first world nations, the US, eu ect, reduce carbon by sheer fact of development, up and comming nations wont b/c they want to ddevelop too, and on the other people wont give up stuff that produces co2 until there is a afordable alternative. your argument is we should dp nothing until those issues are resolved?
 

0x03

Member
Oct 25, 2017
112
Are the scientists in control of that? Will they be making those decisions?

At no point did I suggest they would. But comments like "I hate science" and misrepresenting the position of these scientists as "hey, no need to adjust anything you're doing, we'll just find a miracle cure" are absolute trash-tier takes. If people were responding that way to a thread about vaccine scientists exploring all options in the face of COVID, they'd get run off the forum for being reactionaries.
 

Deleted member 50498

User-requested account closure
Banned
Dec 6, 2018
2,487
isnt the problem that even a first world nations, the US, eu ect, reduce carbon by sheer fact of development, up and comming nations wont b/c they want to ddevelop too, and on the other people wont give up stuff that produces co2 until there is a afordable alternative. your argument is we should dp nothing until those issues are resolved?
We should be reducing GHGs by as much as we can before going down the route of geoengineering.

The least we can do is enforce the Paris Agreement and go from there.
 

Micael

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,489
At no point did I suggest they would. But comments like "I hate science" and misrepresenting the position of these scientists as "hey, no need to adjust anything you're doing, we'll just find a miracle cure" are absolute trash-tier takes. If people were responding that way to a thread about vaccine scientists exploring all options in the face of COVID, they'd get run off the forum for being reactionaries.

While I'm not pro "I hate science" level of takes, I do not think the vaccine example is comparable, there is some genuinely well-founded skepticism over certain solutions being used as excuses to not do meaningful action, and we see this in forms of geo-engineering already, where we have carbon capture facilities being used as an excuse to keep pumping money into fossil fuel companies.

When that is a possibility, one needs to consider it as a con to the research itself.
This isn't even a conversation foreign to climate science really, not only do we see it in discussions about geoengineering, but we have seen that messaging on climate and how urgent these problems are, has been a bit of a problem, even if obviously governments/corporations misusing things as excuses for inaction isn't realistically the fault of climate scientists, but that also doesn't mean it shouldn't be a consideration.
 

hanshen

Banned
Jun 24, 2018
4,040
Chicago, IL
At no point did I suggest they would. But comments like "I hate science" and misrepresenting the position of these scientists as "hey, no need to adjust anything you're doing, we'll just find a miracle cure" are absolute trash-tier takes. If people were responding that way to a thread about vaccine scientists exploring all options in the face of COVID, they'd get run off the forum for being reactionaries.

If we're using vaccine science analogy, doing SAI/microscopic salt at a global scale to combat climate change is akin to doing gain of function research out of lab on wild animals. It's extremely reckless and it's basically gonna substitute one type of climate change for another. The poster was right to be extremely skeptical about this.
 

B-Dubs

That's some catch, that catch-22
General Manager
Oct 25, 2017
35,218
If we're using vaccine science analogy, doing SAI/microscopic salt at a global scale to combat climate change is akin to doing gain of function research out of lab on wild animals. It's extremely reckless and it's basically gonna substitute one type of climate change for another. The poster was right to be extremely skeptical about this.
At the same time, a lot of people seem to be taking the stance of "We shouldn't do this because then people won't make the changes I want them to make" which is pretty fucked up when all our lives are on the line here. It's basically saying, "It's ok if things get worse because the changes will be worth it." Fighting something like climate change has to be a muti-faceted thing.
 

mentok15

Member
Dec 20, 2017
7,947
Australia
We should be reducing GHGs by as much as we can before going down the route of geoengineering.
We need to do both.

And I don't agree with the idea that we shouldn't be even studying this as it might encourage the continued use of coal/gas/oil. It comes off as ideological, people being unhappy we might try to deal with climate change in a way not exactly how they want. I don't think we can get societal change fast enough, or to the extend we need it to be.
 

Psittacus

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,169
At the same time, a lot of people seem to be taking the stance of "We shouldn't do this because then people won't make the changes I want them to make" which is pretty fucked up when all our lives are on the line here. It's basically saying, "It's ok if things get worse because the changes will be worth it." Fighting something like climate change has to be a muti-faceted thing.
In the very possible scenario where we reduce solar irradiance without curbing emissions then we'd just end up doubly fucked because we'd have higher temperatures and less sunlight.
 

B-Dubs

That's some catch, that catch-22
General Manager
Oct 25, 2017
35,218
In the very possible scenario where we reduce solar irradiance without curbing emissions then we'd just end up doubly fucked because we'd have higher temperatures and less sunlight.
The thing is we've already started to curb emissions, just not fast enough. If this potentially buys us some time to keep going and doesn't do much harm then it seems a pretty obvious thing to do.
 

PleaseBeKind

Member
Oct 31, 2023
478
If this [...] doesn't do much harm

That's the thing. We don't know. And given the ramifications that this may have, it'd require a careful examination and very strong arguments for this to be greenlighted.

We haven't made enough research to prove that atmospheric manipulation is feasible let alone that it wouldn't cause much harm. Much of the science behind this is at best in very early stages or just outright speculative. Establishing that would take time, which we don't have by definition, and start ups and businesspeople are willing to jump the gun in their own economic interests.

if a race to manipulate the atmosphere started, the results would be a real gamble.
 

hanshen

Banned
Jun 24, 2018
4,040
Chicago, IL
That's the thing. We don't know. And given the ramifications that this may have, it'd require a careful examination and very strong arguments for this to be greenlighted.

We haven't made enough research to prove that atmospheric manipulation is feasible let alone that it wouldn't cause much harm. Much of the science behind this is at best in very early stages or just outright speculative. Establishing that would take time, which we don't have by definition, and start ups and businesspeople are willing to jump the gun in their own economic interests.

if a race to manipulate the atmosphere started, the results would be a real gamble.

I think people here are grossly overestimating the capability of climate science. We can't even do cloud seeding that accurately, let alone predicting what effect this will have on the climate at the global scale. Modifying the solar radiation over the ocean is a recipe for global ecological disaster.
 

Deleted member 50498

User-requested account closure
Banned
Dec 6, 2018
2,487
We need to do both.

And I don't agree with the idea that we shouldn't be even studying this as it might encourage the continued use of coal/gas/oil. It comes off as ideological, people being unhappy we might try to deal with climate change in a way not exactly how they want. I don't think we can get societal change fast enough, or to the extend we need it to be.
My criticism of geoengineering because it incentivizes nations and corporations to continue emitting GHGs is the least of my concerns.

Assume we collectively use geoengineering to tackle climate change. Let's use my example of India experiencing a 'below normal' monsoon that decimates their agriculture business—an unintended consequence.

I ask you, who pays for it?

How many billions of dollars is this unintended consequence going to cost in terms of humanitarian aid? Now you have millions of people with food insecurity as well. Will countries let these people in because of the climate migration that we created? Or do we close our borders? Are the deaths of millions of people an acceptable outcome for the greater good?

Now project that out with multiple unintended consequences in different countries, and one can forsee how this spirals out of control.

Also, any unintended consequence violates ENMOD. Adversaries can use this as a pretense for invasion/conflict.

e.g., the US, along with other countries, decides to use SAI/microscopic salt particles on a global scale, but without Russia or China's approval. An unintended consequence impacts China's economy, agriculture, or <<insert any reason>>. China then uses this as a pretense to invade Taiwan. Now what?

Do you get my point now?
 

TSM

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,895
It's been obvious to me for a long time that some type of geoengineering is going to be necessary to stave off the worst of climate change since we aren't going to make the necessary changes in a realistic time frame to avert disaster. Even if the changes were made in time should +1.5C be the new normal forever more? I'd hope we'd want to undo the damage we've caused.