DinkyDev

The Movie Critic
Member
Feb 5, 2021
6,680
A natural weather event known as El Niño has begun in the Pacific Ocean, likely adding heat to a planet already warming under climate change.

US scientists confirmed that El Niño had started. Experts say it will likely make 2024 the world's hottest year.
They fear it will help push the world past a key 1.5C warming milestone.

It will also affect world weather, potentially bringing drought to Australia, more rain to the southern US, and weakening India's monsoon.

The event will likely last until next spring, after which its impacts will recede.
For months, researchers have been increasingly confident that an El Niño event was set to emerge in the Pacific Ocean.

"It's ramping up now, there have been signs in our predictions for several months, but it's really looking like it will peak at the end of this year in terms of its intensity," said Adam Scaife, head of long-range predictions at the UK Met Office.

"A new record for global temperature next year is definitely plausible. It depends how big the El Niño turns out to be - a big El Niño at the end of this year, gives a high chance that we will have a new record, global temperature in 2024."
This natural phenomenon is the most powerful fluctuation in the climate system anywhere on Earth.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, as it is properly called, has three different phases: Hot, cold or neutral.

The hot phase, called El Niño, occurs every two to seven years and sees warm waters come to the surface off the coast of South America and spread across the ocean pushing significant amounts of heat up into the atmosphere.

Record warm years, including 2016, the world's hottest on record, usually happen the year after a powerful El Niño event.
Weather agencies around the world use different criteria to decide when this hot phase is upon us.

For scientists in the US, their definition requires the ocean to be 0.5C hotter than normal for a month, the atmosphere must be seen to be responding to this heat and there must be evidence the event is persisting.

These conditions were met in the month of May. In a statement, US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that "El Niño conditions are present".

"This is a very weak signal. But we believe that we're starting to see these conditions and that they will continue to intensify," said Michelle L'Heureux, a scientist with NOAA.

"Our weekly value is actually 0.8C this past week, which is even stronger."
www.bbc.co.uk

El Niño planet-warming weather phase has begun

Storms, droughts and record high temperatures lie ahead as US scientists confirm that El Niño has arrived.
 

Tawpgun

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,863
Yeah we had a triple dip La Nina, not sure how it affects the rest of the world but it was fantastic for PNW skiing and snow.

El Nino not so much
 

signal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
41,069
+ record high CO₂ concentration in atmosphere + record low arctic sea ice + record high ocean surface temps.

🔥
 

Dingo

Member
Jul 19, 2022
818
Australia's gonna be cooking!

Feel bad for the farmers they just got their pastures green again.
 

hobblygobbly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,003
NORDFRIESLAND, DEUTSCHLAND
usually el nino brings a lot more snow than average to europe in the winter so sledding/skii/snowboarding season is gonna be epic

el nino usually does not affect most of europe in the summer thank fuck
 

Patitoloco

Member
Oct 27, 2017
24,479
el-nino.jpg
 

Deleted member 3208

Oct 25, 2017
11,934
Has begun? Then the hell we have been experiencing these past months will get worst.
 

TeraDax

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,446
Québec
And yet, because it's actually suppose to bring colder temperature for summer in some part of Eastern Canada, we'll have dumb people say "global warming is not real!!!"
 

steejee

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,356
It's been cold and wet in New England all of June. Every time I'm about to complain about that fact I just think of what's coming down the pipe in the next few years and become thankful for it.
 

yogurt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,434
Yet another reason we should be seriously researching and considering aerosols and similar technologies to temporarily cool the climate while we work on our energy transition.
 

BlackGoku03

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,299
Yet another reason we should be seriously researching and considering aerosols and similar technologies to temporarily cool the climate while we work on our energy transition.
Yeah. Everytime I suggest or mention the aerosol method or the CO2 machines here, it's met with "we don't need stopgap measures!" Once they figure out a way of delivering it, it's going to help a lot of people. I see no good reason not to pursue it among other strategies.
 

Gunny T Highway

Unshakable Resolve - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
17,564
Canada
and-here-we-go-joker.gif

Yeah. Everytime I suggest or mention the aerosol method or the CO2 machines here, it's met with "we don't need stopgap measures!" Once they figure out a way of delivering it, it's going to help a lot of people. I see no good reason not to pursue it among other strategies.
Thing is we actually do do the aerosol method to a degree, but we have to increase the scale of it dramatically in order for it to be actually effective.
 

El Bombastico

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
36,618
Yeah. Everytime I suggest or mention the aerosol method or the CO2 machines here, it's met with "we don't need stopgap measures!" Once they figure out a way of delivering it, it's going to help a lot of people. I see no good reason not to pursue it among other strategies.

This idea that "stopgap" measures still couldn't potentially save millions of lives down the road confounds me.

But then, I noticed that the people that argue against them are usually the doomer "humanity is fucked and we all deserve to die" posters, so...
 

Milky Way

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,219
This idea that "stopgap" measures still couldn't potentially save millions of lives down the road confounds me.

But then, I noticed that the people that argue against them are usually the doomer "humanity is fucked and we all deserve to die" posters, so...

I think the argument is we don't know the side effects of doing it, and they need to do more studies. Also if you stop, the temperature will rebound hard.
 
Oct 30, 2017
1,931
There's a solar air con unit I've had my eye on. Only suitable for 7 hours a day use for a single room.

But it's enough for me (and the dog)

Might have to bite the bullet as I hate the heat!
 

signal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
41,069
Yet another reason we should be seriously researching and considering aerosols and similar technologies to temporarily cool the climate while we work on our energy transition.
Yeah. Everytime I suggest or mention the aerosol method or the CO2 machines here, it's met with "we don't need stopgap measures!" Once they figure out a way of delivering it, it's going to help a lot of people. I see no good reason not to pursue it among other strategies.
Ironically there are regions globally that are undergoing more heating because a drop in pollution aerosols.

www.su.se

Reduced emissions during the pandemic led to increased climate warming - Stockholm University

Reduced emissions during the pandemic led to increased climate warming The Covid pandemic shutdowns in South Asia greatly reduced the concentration of short-lived cooling particles in the air, while the concentration of long-lived greenhouse gases was barely affected. Researchers were thus able...


View: https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1633566568528375811
 
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yogurt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,434
I think the argument is we don't know the side effects of doing it, and they need to do more studies. Also if you stop, the temperature will rebound hard.
Absolutely. I don't think we should deploy them today - but we need to be studying them as much as possible and considering deploying them this decade. We're already going into uncharted territory with our climate every day, so as long as the technology passes the litmus test of "likely to reduce harm compared to baseline" then it's worth considering.

The most common argument I see against it is "it'll let emitters keep doing what they're doing" or "it's not a long term solution" which are both political issues and don't override the need to help people and the climate now.
 

CatAssTrophy

Member
Dec 4, 2017
7,914
Texas
Sounds like this winter for Houston is going to be another one of those "dark cloudy rainy spring" type winters where it's not cold but not HOT either. Just a weird miserable time period where the trees are all dead like it's winter but it doesn't feel like it.

Also means our hurricane season will be extended through November now, right?
 

BasilZero

Member
Oct 25, 2017
37,461
Omni
Sounds like this winter for Houston is going to be another one of those "dark cloudy rainy spring" type winters where it's not cold but not HOT either. Just a weird miserable time period where the trees are all dead like it's winter but it doesn't feel like it.

Also means our hurricane season will be extended through November now, right?

Damn that sucks :(
 

Milky Way

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,219
Absolutely. I don't think we should deploy them today - but we need to be studying them as much as possible and considering deploying them this decade. We're already going into uncharted territory with our climate every day, so as long as the technology passes the litmus test of "likely to reduce harm compared to baseline" then it's worth considering.

The most common argument I see against it is "it'll let emitters keep doing what they're doing" or "it's not a long term solution" which are both political issues and don't override the need to help people and the climate now.

Agreed. We need both. But they're right that unless we stop the real issue of emissions then it won't do us any good long term. We need to do everything
 

yogurt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,434
Agreed. We need both. But they're right that unless we stop the real issue of emissions then it won't do us any good long term. We need to do everything
Without a doubt. In my mind it's short-term relief as we pursue the technological advances and societal shifts needed for long-term decarbonization. Even just an extra decade of relief would let technologies like renewables, batteries, and direct air capture (or other actually effective carbon capture techs) advance so much further.
 

BlackGoku03

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,299
Ironically there are regions globally that are undergoing more heating because a drop in pollution aerosols.

www.su.se

Reduced emissions during the pandemic led to increased climate warming - Stockholm University

Reduced emissions during the pandemic led to increased climate warming The Covid pandemic shutdowns in South Asia greatly reduced the concentration of short-lived cooling particles in the air, while the concentration of long-lived greenhouse gases was barely affected. Researchers were thus able...

lol what? Cleaner air means a hotter climate… I guess that's why these aerosols are reflective.