Prompto

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,009
President-elect Joe Biden will aim to release every available dose of the coronavirus vaccine when he takes office, a break with the Trump administration's strategy of holding back half of US vaccine production to ensure second doses are available.

Releasing all vaccine doses on hand could quickly ratchet up the availability of coronavirus vaccines by allowing more people access to a first dose. It could also be a risky strategy as both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna's vaccines require two doses, administered at specific intervals, and vaccine manufacturing has not ramped up as rapidly as many experts had hoped.
"The President-elect believes we must accelerate distribution of the vaccine while continuing to ensure the Americans who need it most get it as soon as possible. He supports releasing available doses immediately, and believes the government should stop holding back vaccine supply so we can get more shots in Americans' arms now," said TJ Ducklo, a spokesman for Biden's transition. "He will share additional details next week on how his Administration will begin releasing available doses when he assumes office on January 20th."
 

Wrexis

Member
Nov 4, 2017
21,556
Better to have 3 million people fully vaccinated than 6 million half vaccinated I guess.

EDIT: I misread the situation and have been informed of this.
 
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Teiresias

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,286
Yeah, not quite sure how I feel about this strategy given the need for a second dose.
 

Fliesen

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,297
Uhm, i'm not sure this is a good idea...

77d8f04f373c1c3f7078dd499581dbf6.jpg
 

Teh_Lurv

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,130
I'm not sure if I agree with this. Biden's strategy is putting a lot of faith that vaccine production will ramp up.
 

Kolx

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,505
I can't believe I'm saying this, but Trump might actually have the better idea here?!
 

The Albatross

Member
Oct 25, 2017
39,365
This is good, and I trust this admin to help coordinate vaccinations state-by-state. There have been a number of articles over the last 2 weeks about how getting that initial vaccination out to as many people as possible cna help control spread.

www.theglobeandmail.com

New data favour administering COVID-19 vaccines as fast as possible, not reserving doses

Yet some provinces – including Ontario – are planning to keep half of their initial shipments in the freezer in case the vaccine supply chain breaks down

Right now we're in a race against the clock with this new more contagious variant. Sadly the ~13 days it takes for the Biden admin to get into office and officially change policy is just time for it to spread.


www.theatlantic.com

The Mutated Virus Is a Ticking Time Bomb

There is much we don’t know about the new COVID-19 variant—but everything we know so far suggests a huge danger.

We are in a race against time, and the virus appears to be gaining an unfortunate ability to sprint just as we get closer to the finish line. Although the initial rollout of the vaccines has been slow, it is expected to increase rapidly. The U.S. may have 50 million to 100 million people vaccinated as early as March. That is a huge difference, one that could save many lives, especially since we also have perhaps that many people with some degree of postinfection immunity.

Here's how to think about it: Vaccinated people are a lot less likely to get sick in the first place. One hundred million vaccinated people will mean 100 million people with much less (or hardly any) risk for any symptomatic COVID-19, especially severe disease. That's an enormous gain.

Craig Spencer: My emergency room is full of patients no vaccine can help

But that's not all. Vaccines benefit not just the vaccinated, but potentially everyone else, too. Fewer people symptomatically sick with a contagious virus means fewer sick people infecting even more people. Every indication we have suggests that vaccinated people will also transmit less—how much less is still being studied, but the difference may well be substantive. The mRNA vaccines (both already approved in the United States) cut down symptomatic disease by about 95 percent. We already know that people who never develop symptomatic disease are a lot less likely to transmit COVID-19. (Note the difference between people who are truly asymptomatic and people who are just about to get sick—presymptomatic—but are highly infectious.) In a preliminary study, the Moderna vaccine was found to even prevent two-thirds of asymptomatic infections. Vaccinated people are thus not only much, much less likely to get any disease; they appear much less likely to get even a silent, asymptomatic infection. Although we need more data to be sure, all of this strongly suggests that vaccinated people will also transmit less. The fewer people there are to efficiently transmit a pathogen, the harder it is for that pathogen to spread.

All this means that the speed of the vaccine rollout is of enormous importance. There are already worrisome indicators of slow rollout. Vaccination of a broad population, not vaccines in and of themselves, saves lives, and epidemics are fought with logistics and infrastructure. We should put every bit of energy, funding, and relentlessness into vaccinating as many people as possible as quickly as possible.

Meanwhile, the United States was reportedly planning to hold back half the vaccine it has in freezers as a hedge against supply-chain issues, and some states may be slowed down by murky prioritization plans. Scott Gottlieb—the former FDA chief and a current board member of Pfizer—has argued that the U.S. should also go ahead with vaccinating as many people as possible right now and trust that the supply chain will be there for the booster. Researchers in Canada—where some provinces decided to vaccinate now as much as possible without holding half in reserve, and will administer the booster with future supplies—estimate that this type of front-loading can help "avert between 34 and 42 per cent more symptomatic coronavirus infections, compared with a strategy of keeping half the shipments in reserve."

ffs, I had posted a complex update to my post about this with multiple articles and fucking hit cmd w instead of cmd t and deleted the whole fucking update before writing it.

Gist of the update is that we are in a race against the clock with potential vaccination and a lot of leading experts on vaccine deployment, including Scott Gottlieb, Canadian experts, and othr international experts are recommending this as the best approach.
 
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RoKKeR

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,509
Errr.... I'm not so sure about this. I agree we need to loosen things up so more old folks can get it, but don't we need to ensure maximum efficacy by having everyone get their follow up doses in an orderly manner?

I say this really not knowing much about the topic, fyi, and I agree with an overall re-evaluation of what we're doing at the moment.
 

tabris

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,267
Almost every major country is doing this (Canada, UK, etc). Some are even planning to wait up to 30~ days before second dose.

The risk is OK with them as more comfortable with 2 people at 70%~ effectiveness than 1 person at 95%~

And ideally vaccine production/approvals keep on increasing so they have more stock for 2 doses.
 
Jul 19, 2020
1,141
Well, I'd hope this is a decision made with plenty of expert opinion and analysis taken into consideration. I want to believe this is being done with full confidence that second dose targets can be reached.

Hopefully this pans out well and healthcare + other essential workers are able to get prioritised at a greater rate without endangering anyone.
 

Poltergust

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,973
Orlando, FL
This strategy should only get executed if the vaccine production can keep up with the demand so that no one misses their second dose. I hope Biden is following the advice of medical professionals in this regard.
 

tobascodagama

Member
Aug 21, 2020
1,358
Seems risky to me. They're basically betting that production will keep pace so that nobody misses their second dose. But OTOH the vaccines have heavy storage requirements, so there's a chance the stockpiled doses just go bad sitting on the shelves, which helps nobody.
 

Vidiot

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,485
With one shot aren't you like 70% protected and like 95% with both? Seems to make more sense to have more people 70% protected than less people 95% protected. What do I know about stuff like this though.
 

Doom

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,835
New Jersey
This is an awful idea, barring some kind of major influx of doses coming through. Hopefully they handle this correctly because we absolutely cannot have Biden's first major country wide undertaking be a failure.
 

Distantmantra

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,323
Seattle
I don't want to miss the window for the second dose. I don't like this idea regardless of it being grounded in good intentions. If there is hard scientific data supporting then sure, but you'd think they would've said this was ok during trials if it was ok.
 

scitek

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,212
I saw a doctor mention the other day that the vaccine is apparently more effective if you wait a bit longer than 21 days to get the second dose. I guess the downside is you're not fully protected until that point.
 

Syriel

Banned
Dec 13, 2017
11,088
This allows for more flexibility by the states.

States can track the dosing and allocate as needed.

It's not like they'll just dump them all out ASAP. Not to mention, manufacturing hasn't stopped.
 

Poltergust

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,973
Orlando, FL
With one shot aren't you like 70% protected and like 95% with both? Seems to make more sense to have more people 70% protected than less people 95% protected. What do I know about stuff like this though.
The primary issue is that with a less effective immunity, it could allow the virus to mutate into a strain that resists the vaccine.

So this strategy can only really work if people are able to get their planned second doses anyways.
 

Corran Horn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,618
Is there a time limit of when getting the 2nd dose? Like if I got the first dose but have to wait an additional month+ to get the 2nd shot does it basically do nothing?
 

captive

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,096
Houston
I'm not sure if I agree with this. Biden's strategy is putting a lot of faith that vaccine production will ramp up.
it will. He already said he plans to invoke the production act or whatever.


As long as this decision was guided by the science of his advisors im ok with this. Waiting to 2 dose everyone makes sense if we're on lockdown, but frankly we're not. So getting as many people as possible at least some protection makes sense to me.
 

Kinthey

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
22,626
With one shot aren't you like 70% protected and like 95% with both? Seems to make more sense to have more people 70% protected than less people 95% protected. What do I know about stuff like this though.
According to this it's 52% which I'd say isn't all that great

www.bmj.com

Covid-19: Pfizer vaccine efficacy was 52% after first dose and 95% after second dose, paper shows

The Pfizer and BioNTech covid-19 vaccine may provide some early protection, starting 12 days after the first dose, the peer reviewed results of a phase III trial have found. The study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine ,1 found that vaccine efficacy between the first and second...

I hope they have the logistical data to know that the production can keep up
 

captmcblack

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,120
It's a risky premise, but I hope that states will be significally better-situated to coordinate with his administration and make sure the right amount/combination of doses are available.
 

Royalan

I can say DEI; you can't.
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
12,225
Biden has employed a COVID-19 task force of medical experts since he won the nomination, and he's largely gone by their guidance.

I wonder if this move is based on their counsel, and what the rationale is.
 

Batigol

Member
Oct 27, 2017
15
It is my understanding that the second one is just a booster and the first one could protect you up to 85%, depending on the vaccine, so I think it makes a lot of sense to take this approach.
 
Oct 31, 2017
1,845
It's not like they're not continually manufacturing new doses. I don't think doing this will automatically cause a massive delay in people getting their second dose.
 

HardRojo

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
26,319
Peru
What's the interval between doses? If you can get a new shipment for the second dose in time, then this would be fine, otherwise I don't think half-assing it should be the way to go.
 

Nigel Tufnel

Member
Mar 5, 2019
3,189
With one shot aren't you like 70% protected and like 95% with both? Seems to make more sense to have more people 70% protected than less people 95% protected. What do I know about stuff like this though.
This hasn't been studied. Some are inferring those #s based on observed cases between dosages in the trials, and trials designed to test for that variable might bear that out, but currently nothing that supports that beyond a guess inferred from data that doesn't have the proper controls to support that inference.
 

darkside

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,415
With one shot aren't you like 70% protected and like 95% with both? Seems to make more sense to have more people 70% protected than less people 95% protected. What do I know about stuff like this though.

Thats what I thought too? Doesn't the data show that getting 1 shot already provides protection and that it might be better for more folks to get 1 shot as soon as possible rather than holding back on 2
 

lt519

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,064
They also need to figure out a way for people to sign-up/register to get into a theoretical line. I know pharmacists at our local hospitals saying they are sitting on doses because all the high risks staff have been vaccinated.
 

Dyle

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
30,296
Everything I've read has indicated the Trump admin's policy is less effective so it's good to see them change it.
 

plagiarize

It's not a loop. It's a spiral.
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
27,799
Cape Cod, MA
It's not half a vaccination.

You are vaccinated after one shot, to a higher percent than some flu vaccines offer. Your second vaccine gives you even more protection, but the first shot is still a vaccination.
 

Headman Rum

Member
Oct 28, 2017
565
Hmmm I remember the UK getting slated for doing exactly this and a lot of countries are doing the same. Seems like the best play given the urgency around getting as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible.
 

Foltzie

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
6,828
They also need to figure out a way for people to sign-up/register to get into a theoretical line. I know pharmacists at our local hospitals saying they are sitting on doses because all the high risks staff have been vaccinated.
Currently its being done state by state, my state has a line. Others don't.
 

RadzPrower

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jan 19, 2018
6,114
Depending on the specifics, this could be a good or bad course.

If they've got the supply chain set up where the vaccine just keeps coming at a constant pace, this shouldn't be an issue as second doses should still be available when needed.

If however this is intended to be a scenario of "give EVERYONE half a dose!" and it means second doses are pushed back weeks or months, it's not a good call.
 

Calabi

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,514
This is good, and I trust this admin to help coordinate vaccinations state-by-state. There have been a number of articles over the last 2 weeks about how getting that initial vaccination out to as many people as possible cna help control spread. Lemme find the articles from the last couple weeks recommending this. *edit* damnit this was discussed a lot on Twitter journo accounts last week but because of the news cycle the last 48 hours it's buried deep in the recesses of any feeds I know tweeted about it.

Right now we're in a race against the clock with this new more contagious variant. Sadly the ~13 days it takes for the Biden admin to get into office and officially change policy is just time for it to spread.

Yeah even a 50 percent immunity rate is better than nothing, that's fewer people needing to be admitted to hospitals, which could mean the difference between your hospital system just about hanging on or collapsing. In the UK we've just had a Covid emergency announced for London which means the hospitals are close to being ovewhelmed if not already. There's no time left for perfect strategies.
 

lt519

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,064
Currently its being done state by state, my state has a line. Others don't.

Yeah, just generalizing. I just feel like some states aren't even prepared for more doses, it's crazy. I wish there was some kind of universal system in place, sign up on-line or in person, it feeds to the state which lets you know where and when it is your turn. Seems like 9 months was long enough for them to have organized something like that :(