Well, here's my shot.
Microsoft:
- A Developer Direct returns this January, however it is not an Xbox Bethesda one. It is an Xbox Blizzard one. Bethesda will be taking a break until E3. Focus will be on Hellblade 2, Towerborne, WoW, ESO, the Blizzard catalogue of games hitting GP and a shadowdrop from Double Fine.
- In the wake of the Starfield SEO fiasco, Microsoft will be a bit more aggressive with their relationships with the press, with more interviews, exclusive looks, etc. taken in-house to Xbox Wire.
- Indiana Jones will officially be announced as Xbox exclusive and dated for early 2025. Blade will be alluded to being exclusive "We take things on a case by case basis and see the benefits to the ecosystem for an exclusive Marvel character."
- FTC drops their appeal in March.
- Perfect Dark and Everwild will receive gameplay, both rebooted from original vision. The former is now a third-person/first-person hybrid in the vein of PD Zero and the recent Deus Ex titles, the latter is a survival game with non-violent Monster Hunter and Rune Factory elements (you are fighting the corruption to save the creatures and befriend them).
- Starfield: Shattered Space is delayed(?) into Holiday 2024, serving as a soft relaunch.
- Hellblade 2 is May, Avowed is October.
- Phil Spencer will address the sales of consoles acknowledging an internal focus on a "sustainable entry point and vertical of the Xbox ecosystem" and will allude to a "shortened console generation cycle." Xbox's third party offerings to other ecosystems will be restricted to ongoing titles, future CoD and Minecraft games and "games for which we decide to unilaterally disband the publishing contract" (Lucky's Tale, As Dusk Falls). Another Microsoft Exec will contradict this leading to more muddled messaging. But the buck stops with Phil.
- Retaining this from last year: Halo Tatanka will be a seperate launcher, release crossplatform with 343 leading creative, Certain Affinity developing the Xbox and PC version and TiMi the mobile Sku which will launch concurrently.
- Microsoft will begin development on a mobile launcher and will have considerable debate over the best course of action going forward on whether to delist their apps from Apple and Google Play or keep them. Ultimately, they will announce 3 years of support for all apps barring Teams and Outlook on Apple and Google but will test run delisting them in smaller markets.
- The Fallout show will be the moment that makes Xbox consider Transmedia more than a pet project. Xbox Film Studios will be launched as a label to coincide with the release of the Minecraft film, consolidating ABK and Xbox's existing (small) transmedia teams.
- Towards the end of 2024, it will be announced that Battle.net and the Xbox App will merge into a separate launcher, retaining the Battle.net name, in 2025.
- Bethesda.net accounts will be shuttered. In the wake of the Blade controvery, Xbox and Bethesda branding will be alligned. All ongoing and future titles from Bethesda will be updated to have an Xbox Games Studio and Bethesda splashscreen.
Sony:
- Sony will hire a new CEO for SIE from outside the company. It will not be Bobby Kotick. It could be Andrew Wilson.
- Wolverine will be re-revealed at the TGAs. The leaks will be acknowledged in the reveal in a meta-way (think a newspaper headline reading "Leaks of Mutant Activity Scares POTUS")
- MLB The Show will launch day and date on Game Pass and PS+ Extra.
- Concord will be an unexpected hit, generating solid ROI for SIE and positive word of mouth.
- Jim Ryan will be semi-outspoken on the media circuit, calling out "unsustainable internal focuses he tried to control" and "the decline of civility between platform holders". The irony will be lost on him.
- PSVR2 will be discontinued with Sony porting non-PS IP (more Firewall, less Horizon) titles from VR1 and 2 to the Meta Quest.
- PS Portal will support cloud streaming and the PS Portal Deluxe will be sold in Holiday 2024 alongside the PS5 Pro. It will sell well.
- Death Stranding 2 and Ghost of Tsushima 2 are set to be the Christmas games. The former is delayed, the latter is released. Like Spider-Man 2 and Ragnarok, it is built on the same map as Ghost 1. However, unlike those two, there is a 7 year timeskip (between the two invasions) and the map has changed drastically. Controversially, the game launches concurrent with Legends 2. Tsushima 2 costs $60, Legends 2 costs $30 or you can buy them together for $70.
- The Final Shape will be a modest hit. Enough to retain Bungie's independence but not a gamechanging moment.
- Sony will sign a game from an "offshoot" of an MS owned studio (think Maverick Games or WolfEye)
- Contrary to belief, Sony will not shut down a studio. They will however spin off Media Molecule into an independent entity and will retain a minority, non-voting stake (think MS and Bungie).
- Rise of the Ronin will lead to Sony acquiring Team Ninja and Omega Force (along with associated IP) from Koei Tecmo.
Nintendo:
- Switch 2 will suffer out of the gate from muddled messaging and a bad name. "Nintendo SwIItch" or something similarly stupid. However, a killer launch lineup (including a crossgen Metroid Prime 4 and exclusive 3D Mario), competitive pricing and power and retention of the hybrid model will more than make up for this and the thing will be hard to find. Christmas release.
- Switch 2 will have a longer crossgen period than we're used to from Nintendo.
- Fire Emblem: Genealogy of the Holy War and Thracia 776 are being remade. Thracia an interquel in the game. Controversial changes are made to tone and difficulty but game is well received.
- Switch 2 will be backwards compatible, but certain titles will still be ported and "remastered".
- Nintendo will announce a brand new studio based in North America that they are building from the ground up.
- Princess Peach Showtime will be the second-best Mario or Mario-adjacent title of the year.
- Third Party will go above and beyond for Switch 2 launch.
- After the rights to Zelda and Pokemon went to Sony and Legendary respectively, Universal will not make the same game again, signing a right of first refusal deal with Nintendo for any future films.
Third Party:
- Dragon Age 4 will be the Starfield of 2024. A well received, enjoyable game that ends up dunked on due to BG3 and the studio's prior pedigree. It is similarly reviewed in the mid 80s and similarly not GOTY nominated at TGAs.
- GTA VI will have independent marketing rights not tied to PlayStation or Xbox, and a quick reveal will be shown at Summer Games Fest like Elden Ring had. Dated Spring 2025.
- Disney will not acquire EA or any publisher. But they will start rebuilding their games division through strategic acquisitions like DLaLa.
- Suicide Squad: Kill The Justice League will receive solid reviews but will sell poorly.
- KOTOR Remake will be cancelled by Embracer, rights picked up off the waiver wire, ironically enough, by EA and will relaunch as a fully multiplatform initiative. Announce at TGAs, release in 2028.
- 2K's "Overwatch-style game" will finally be revealed at Gamescom ONL
- KOTOR Remake will switch developers again.
Misc:
- The ESA will put the rights to the E3 branding, trademarks and iconography up for auction. Tencent, NetEase, Geoff Keighley and Microsoft will be named as interested parties but the price per value prop will be too high and nobody will end up buying.
- All three platforms will have in-person showcases this year.
- Acquisitions will be slowed substantially this year.
- Riot Games and Blizzard will have an unexpected crossover encompassing in-game events, concerts, ads, Game Pass perks and more.
- Epic will acquire Remedy.
