because they obviously want to attract Pokémon Go players, and in Pokémon Go you do not battle before catching Pokémon, you just throw the Pokéball
-
Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
-
We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.
How confident are you that Nintendo will reach their 20 million target for Switch this year?
- Thread starter Mysterio79
- Start date
I still think the 20M goal will be incredibly hard to achieve, given Labo's situation
I firmly believe Nintendo was counting on Labo for Switch to regain momentum on the first half of the year.
It never happened.
Pokémon and Smash can only do so much, and 20 million units isn't a small task, so we'll have to see.
With that said, I'm still waiting for Fortnite announcement. This game can completely change Swirch's holidays.
I firmly believe Nintendo was counting on Labo for Switch to regain momentum on the first half of the year.
It never happened.
Pokémon and Smash can only do so much, and 20 million units isn't a small task, so we'll have to see.
With that said, I'm still waiting for Fortnite announcement. This game can completely change Swirch's holidays.
Smash and Pokemon will move hardware to a far, far greater degree than Fortnite so that seems an odd stance to take
What about Labo ?
Pokemon and Smash can "only do so much"...but Fortnite which is already available on every other plattform for free will completly change the Switch holidays ? lol come on.
Nintendo is betting on Labo being a long-term product, with a particular focus on holiday performance. They're not going into this thinking it'll sell like a traditional game release.
It's aggressively stupid to even entertain this idea. Literally not a single piece of hardware in the history of dedicated video game consoles has exploded out the gate just to completely fizzle out a year later.
And before you mention it, the Wii didn't either.
Labo didn't take off and Fortnite is a cultural phenomenon. I'm expecting Nintendo to sell 17-18 million units this fiscal year.
I'll be honestly impressed if they can manage to pull their 20M goal.
This is a really weird take on the Switch demand situation - it sold just fine last year without Labo...and now the systems overall performance depends on Labo ? I dont think im gonna convince otherwise but you might wanna look up the sales and importance of Smash/Pokemon on past Nintendo systems.
I heard people in a busy bar last night, the sort of 27 year old beer swilling Fortnite playing lads demographic, who were all saying the trailer for that new Pokemon game "looked sick" and that they were buying Switches for it.
Seriously, Let's Go is going to be HUGE, and not just with kids. Those guys also loved that it was just the original Pokemon as they hadn't played any of the games beyond red blue and yellow so those were the ones they knew.
OT?
Smash and Pokemon are HUGE titles and system sellers. I reckon they'll hit 20 million fairly easily.
I don't know if this is Nintendo's or ERA's conjuncture.
Even though, I'm not holding my breath for Labo's sales at black friday, Thanksgiving or Christmas.
But again, we'll have to see. I remain skeptical, though.
I know them pretty well. As I was saying, it's all about momentum, which Nintendo had in droves last year with its lineup (from Splatoon 2 and Breath of the Wild to Mario Odyssey, Mario Kart 8 and being a new successful product on the market); and which they naturally lost at the begining of this year.
And I'm not implying Smash and Pokémon won't do major numbers. Quite the opposite.
My 18M units estimate rely HEAVILY on those games. I know damn well their strength
It's very important to pay attention to the way Nintendo's marketing Labo. They revealed in a dedicated Trailer dropped on YouTube, kept it out of Nintendo Directs, launched with two "Playsets", while teasing more on the way, sent review copies to tech outlets as opposed to gaming press, and didn't run any commercial advertising for it until the day it released. All signs that Nintendo is selling Labo as more of an interactive Toy than a game. If this were a regular AAA game release, Nintendo would treat it as such, but they have a very different mindset with Labo, and are adjusting expectations accordingly.
Holy crap, I wasn't making any predictions. I was just pointing out how it could be possible and that it wouldn't need to sell zero units. I really don't give a shit if the Switch sells 20 or 20 million this year. Why does the possibility that the Switch doesn't sell as much as Nintendo predicts, upset some people so much? Stop worrying so much about sales and just enjoy the games.
So Switch with all the shortages last year managed to sell ~18m in 12 months, and you think it will sell pretty much the same this year with no shortages and Pokemon, and Smash (and Fortnite) ?
I don't think it's that people are upset, they're just pointing out how unrealistic your statement was. It could happen, anything is possible. The Switch may only sell 1 more unit for the rest of the year, it's just very very unlikely.
Did they lose it though? Last time I checked those four games were still the main sales drivers. What they lost is the holiday momentum, not the momentum inherent in these games.
In before sales pass 70 million and the goalposts are moved to "must sell as much as Wii and DS combined to be a success because it replaced both the home and portable lines."
No, the graphical capabilties would be unchanged. Not talking about a Switch Pro, just a Switch light. Even if they went to 12nm that is still pretty big gains in power efficiency over 20nm.
If they ship ~3M in Q1 and ~4M in Q2 (I'm using PS4 shipments in FY16 and FY17 as reference), 20M target for the fiscal year should be relatively easy to attain. That's 1M more than last year for each of those quarters.
If not, I think aggressive price promotion for the holidays or a new cheaper dock-less SKU (like the one announced in Japan) could help.
A slight correction, ~18M was in 13 months. The last 12 months total is ~15M ( = -2.74 + 1.96 + 2.93 + 7.23 + 2.93 ).
If not, I think aggressive price promotion for the holidays or a new cheaper dock-less SKU (like the one announced in Japan) could help.
A slight correction, ~18M was in 13 months. The last 12 months total is ~15M ( = -2.74 + 1.96 + 2.93 + 7.23 + 2.93 ).
Of course that's include 3DS lol
9.24 million on 3DS
5.34 million on Wii U
Still selling btw. Last quarter they shipped 100K between 2DS (80K) and Wii U (20K)
Easily.
With Smash, Pokémon, Octopath, Captain Toad, Fortnite, Fire Emblem, etc. around the corner, on top of that games like Wolfenstein2, Dark Souls, etc.
And probably more 1&3 party games announced at e3. But these are not even necessary Smash/Labo/Pokemon are enough to achieve this goal.
With Smash, Pokémon, Octopath, Captain Toad, Fortnite, Fire Emblem, etc. around the corner, on top of that games like Wolfenstein2, Dark Souls, etc.
And probably more 1&3 party games announced at e3. But these are not even necessary Smash/Labo/Pokemon are enough to achieve this goal.
That's not the point. A portable-clocked only Switch would easily fit in that form factor. Even more so if they shrunk the X1 to 16nm at least (honestly, I dont think they even need to do that)
Exactly if people thought year 1-2 were big, wait till year 3 and 4
We haven't seen anything yet
I personally think they might do a $300 Switch + Pokémon bundle as a Black Friday and/or Christmas shopping promotion. That could push astronomical numbers.
The Switch officially has 3-6 hours of battery life depending on the game, the 3DS was officially reported to have the same. Zelda can get up to ~3.5 hours if you turn off the wifi and the brightness isn't set to max.
Either way it's a very small difference in overall battery life.
Think about it, Nintendo barely marketed Labo close to its release date. They put out a couple videos on Twitter and there was one commercial I saw on TV, but there were next to no internet ads or promotional events leading up to its release.
If Nintendo had big expectations for its launch then they would've spent a bit of money advertising it. It's more likely they're going to ramp up that advertising in the holiday season, which gives Labo the typical toy cycle.
Good, it'll make them realize they should just stick to making actual games instead of overpriced gimmick toys for kids.
Games are toys for kids, and Nintendo is a toy company, they have been since the 60's.
I personally know of at least 4 of my friends waiting for Smash.
Switch is 2.5-6 hours of battery. That is also the battery life of the OG 3DS, the Vita, and most other 3DS models.
Switch benefits from a far better sleep mode than 3DS as well.
I've always found this the most ridiculous argument ever. "Outside of this one thing that proves me wrong, I'm right". Well, duh. Wii's existence disproves any "trend" that you are trying to extrapolate, and now, so does Switch's. You can try and make excuses for them all you like, but the end result is that there's no trend of the kind you are trying to establish.
Has there ever been a case where a popular exclusive doesn't move consoles?
No, no, first it will be 3DS+Wii U. Once those are passed, then we'll move on to Wii+DS.
Hey, I still remember the "Wii U sold well early on, too" and the "Nintendo won't give sell through numbers, only shipped, so there's no proof it's selling well anyway" days.
Smash 4 in total sold about as much as Switch has up to this point, anyone who thinks it won't sell some units shouldn't even be partaking in a sales discussion.
User warned: Console Warring/ Insulting poster
Yeah sure. Toys not solely meant for little kids then.
So sorry for hurting your feelings. You probably aren't between 5-11 yet you like em and try to justify your rationale...
When I said power, I wasn't talking about graphical capabilities, that was my mistake as I should have clarified. I was talking about battery power.
Yeah, but I think it would be just as foolish to think this will be a Wii level success just because its "unique" and currently selling well.
Come on, what is this? Is this any way to have a discussion here?