again, not the same. your way, more than 8 people out of 10 have played [anything from zero ;) ] up to 40%
reality, less than 3 people out of 10 have played up to 40% (or more)
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Forza Motorsport 7, Gran Turismo Sport and Project Cars 2: Tracking critical and commercial success
- Thread starter FriskyCanuck
- Start date
reality, less than 3 people out of 10 have played up to 40% (or more)
Ok, went over it several times. I agree with your numbers for 40% and more. I feel Im just not wording it correctly but it seems like we are coming to compatible conclusions just from different ends. Me going from and including 0 and you from Completion and meeting at the 40-60 range. For full clarity of my thought process
mine
A + B + C + D = 3,111,800 / A thru G = 3,682,800 = .845
My thought is that around 80% of the total player base has either played nothing up into level D(50% for simplicity). Coming from the other side, about 28% (including D) have played anything more to completion.
I guess the same would go for the Sport mode races entered stats. You can say that 92% of all profiles have only done 10 races or 8% do anything more.
I guess I misunderstood your meaning about the players with only 9 races under there belt. I interpreted it as saying All or even most would continue past that.
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yes, by your method if I ask you how many players have played up to 100% of campaign, you will just add everything and come up with 100% has played 100%, right? ;)
when you say "Campaign data is from kudosprime.com, 84% to the level of 40-60% Campaign progress among players", what you need to do is add D+E+F+G (add all those that have reached your target, not all those that havent)
Yeah, it would be clearer to say 1% make it to 125 races rather than 99% do not.
Guys you have the Campaign % from trophies.
Unlocked the Ending Movie: 8.2% *
Earned Bronze in all Driving School challenges: 28.2% (Gold 11.4%)
Earned Gold in all Sector King challenges in Mission Challenge: 5.9%
Earned Gold in all Mission Challenge races: 3.5%
Earned Gold in all Pylon challenges in Mission Challenge: 32.9%
Earned Gold in all Special Rallies in Mission Challenge: 7.7%
Earned Gold in all Catch Up challenges in Mission Challenge: 12.6%
Earned Gold in all Speed challenges in Mission Challenge: 9.9%
Earned Gold in all One-lap challenges in Mission Challenge: 13.4%
Earned Bronze in all Circuit Experiences: 5.7% (Gold 3.2%)
Sad there is no trophy to Bronze in Mission Challenge or a unique trophy.
* You just need to complete with at least Broze all the Driving School and Mission Challenge (Circuit Experiences is not required)
Unlocked the Ending Movie: 8.2% *
Earned Bronze in all Driving School challenges: 28.2% (Gold 11.4%)
Earned Gold in all Sector King challenges in Mission Challenge: 5.9%
Earned Gold in all Mission Challenge races: 3.5%
Earned Gold in all Pylon challenges in Mission Challenge: 32.9%
Earned Gold in all Special Rallies in Mission Challenge: 7.7%
Earned Gold in all Catch Up challenges in Mission Challenge: 12.6%
Earned Gold in all Speed challenges in Mission Challenge: 9.9%
Earned Gold in all One-lap challenges in Mission Challenge: 13.4%
Earned Bronze in all Circuit Experiences: 5.7% (Gold 3.2%)
Sad there is no trophy to Bronze in Mission Challenge or a unique trophy.
* You just need to complete with at least Broze all the Driving School and Mission Challenge (Circuit Experiences is not required)
GTS' online activity alone puts it in a league of its own. Having 750k players in a week come online to race, no other racing game comes close. I would not even be surprised if GTS was a magnitude above its competitors in that sense.
We've finally got concrete sales numbers for GTS in one region, so we can see the relationship between these API numbers and actual sales.
GTS in 2017, including digital, sold 484,833
If someone could get the UK numbers from the API at around that time then it would be great.
To those who use the kudosprime statistics we can clearly see a big difference:
As of 27th Feb 2018 Kudos says there are 443,000 UK players.
Basically GTS sales > GTS online players from Kudos. It has 3.69 million players on the full game as of 27th Feb.
We've finally got concrete sales numbers for GTS in one region, so we can see the relationship between these API numbers and actual sales.
GTS in 2017, including digital, sold 484,833
If someone could get the UK numbers from the API at around that time then it would be great.
To those who use the kudosprime statistics we can clearly see a big difference:
As of 27th Feb 2018 Kudos says there are 443,000 UK players.
Basically GTS sales > GTS online players from Kudos. It has 3.69 million players on the full game as of 27th Feb.
UK Top 40 Entertainment Software (All Prices) Week 9 Year 2018 - Ending 3rd March
Forza Horizon 3 keeps being way ahead of Gran Turismo Sports in UK weekly sales.
#16 FORZA HORIZON 3
#33 GRAN TURISMO: SPORT
https://ukie.org.uk/news/2018/03/quiet-week-leaves-open-net-another-no1-fifa-18
Forza Horizon 3 keeps being way ahead of Gran Turismo Sports in UK weekly sales.
#16 FORZA HORIZON 3
#33 GRAN TURISMO: SPORT
https://ukie.org.uk/news/2018/03/quiet-week-leaves-open-net-another-no1-fifa-18
I didn't "brag" and I didn't mention Forza 7 at all. All I did was posting weekly sales. In a thread about comparing the commercial success about both the Forza and Gran Turismo franchise. Simple facts - something this thread seems lacking with so many strange conclusions based on 10% data stats numbers.
User Banned (Permanent): Accumulated warnings and bans for console wars, baiting other users, low quality posts
I'm sure you would be damn happy all over the place if FM7 was above GTS. :D
- It's not.
- Why would I?
In fairness the title says Forza 7 and the OP outlines the fact that this was a thread to track the 3 more sim focused titles that released last year.
This uneccessary though...
Well, you laughed at me when i said there is possibility that GTS would outpace all Forzas released to date. So, you tell me that i have a problem. Good.
Why do these threads always need to get so personal? Can't some of you guys just chill?
It's not healthy lol.
It's not healthy lol.
Because that's a statement without any foundation, fact or numbers support. It's just something you randomly throw into the room. Gran Turismo: Sports - even if we calculate that super freaking generous based on the api statistics - should be at max on par with Forza Horizon 3 (hint: it isn't even close on par ...). Then there is
- Forza Horizon 2
- Forza Motorsport 5
- Forza Motorsport 6
- Forza Motorsport 7
- and Forza Horizon 4 is also to be at the ready this year.
While we don't get any concrete sale numbers from MS - what you are basically saying is: Gran Tursmo Sport will sell another 4 - 7 million copies (a low fair guess based on the number of Forza titles posted in the list) and Forza will stop selling tomorrow. The numbers we do have show that GTS doesn't even sell as much as does FH3 alone today. Well, at least for UK. So again - I don't know how you can throw such a statement into a thread - without any foundation - and expect to be taken seriously. Well ... I did take you seriously with this post actually. So there's that.
If you have other numbers that prove me wrong - enlighten me. I'm the last person who wouldn't stand corrected.
It's alright. He asked me why I laughed about his statement - I give him the answer. That's okay.
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The biggest surprise is why Microsoft, in the UK at least, have put so little effort behind FM7. You'd think it would be bundled with every system, which is where most of FH3's sales have come from these past 6-12 months.
It makes you wonder if FM7 will even reach the 2m worldwide. It's a real dilemma when Microsoft's flagship racer is suffering the same declines as Halo and Gears.
Maybe it's time to change the Motorsport series' focus to a true GaaS.
It makes you wonder if FM7 will even reach the 2m worldwide. It's a real dilemma when Microsoft's flagship racer is suffering the same declines as Halo and Gears.
Maybe it's time to change the Motorsport series' focus to a true GaaS.
With the next Forza Motorsport launching on Game Pass on day one, I think this is a safe call. I also think there is a high chance FM7 will be on Game Pass this year, too. Moving forward it will be wrong to only look at the sales as that's something MS is ready to give up on given they want you to be subscribed to Game Pass. That's the calculated price they are paying.
The flagship racer is Forza Horizon. No Forza sold as much (Horizon 3 is currently at 6.6 million players, Forza Motorsport never exceeded 2.5 million players).
Honestly, this is the best approach for racing games IMO. Release one game for a generation and then iterate on it via patches and monetise it via car/track packs.
I've spent over £100 on iRacing content over the years (not including subscriptions) and upwards of £150 on Raceroom experience content. Its nice to be able to go crazy and buy all the content you want in the knowledge that you are investing into a platform that is constantly being improved and developed for the foreseeable future and wont be replaced by sequels at any point.
In contrast I look at the money I've spent on DLC on previous Forza and GT games and i just think "why". I don't play those games anymore because they have been replaced by newer games. Effectively it's money down the drain.
The sooner the console racing games adopt the strategy of the mainstays in the PC world of racing games the better.
so, a recap:
a guy predicts that Gran Turismo spinoff, GTS, will outsell the entire forza franchise together.
another guy points out that a single title from entire forza franchise is currently selling better than GTS.
and he gets heat because a) forza horizon is not forza motorsport, as if GTS was Gran Turismo 7 and
b) the data is of no interest because not forza motorsport 7
ok....
a guy predicts that Gran Turismo spinoff, GTS, will outsell the entire forza franchise together.
another guy points out that a single title from entire forza franchise is currently selling better than GTS.
and he gets heat because a) forza horizon is not forza motorsport, as if GTS was Gran Turismo 7 and
b) the data is of no interest because not forza motorsport 7
ok....
That happens every time there is a promo or discount with FH3... overall GTS is ahead FH3 sales in UK even comparing 4 months vs 1.5 years of sales.
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Why does that matter? That said, there seem to be a lot of "discounts or promos" as FH3 is on this list for over 1.5 years already.
But whatever. Is there a source for this? I don't doubt you - it's just that I like facts over conclusions.
This is what we know:
UK - Top 2017
- 8th: Gran Turismo Sport (Polyphony Digital)
- 13th: Forza Horizon 3 (Playground Games)
UK - Top 2016
- 10th: Forza Horizon 3 (Playground Games)
We have no hard numbers sadly. I don't know where you got your claim from and it seems in contrast to the things we know.
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I was saying it is normal a older game outsell a new some weeks because promo/promotions... it is not the first neither the last time.
Now in the specific of Forza Horizon 3 that is the reason in UK:
https://www.xbox.com/en-gb/xbox-one/consoles/xbox-one-s/forza-horizon-3-hot-wheels-1tb
https://www.xbox.com/en-gb/xbox-one/consoles/xbox-one-s/forza-horizon-3-hot-wheels-500gb
https://www.xbox.com/en-gb/xbox-one/consoles/xbox-one-s/forza-horizon-3-1tb
https://www.xbox.com/en-gb/xbox-one/consoles/xbox-one-s/forza-horizon-3-500gb
These are actually the main Forza Horizon 3 sellers in UK.
About the others links what did it means?
Main takeaway is that FH3 has done insanely well, and is IMHO clearly the best racer this gen, certainly the best open world racer by a distance (and ever in fact).
MS should give FM games a break and as stated above consider releasing the next on a service model basis. Horizon games can remain on their current release schedule and model as there is enough differentiation between titles there, for now at least.
MS should give FM games a break and as stated above consider releasing the next on a service model basis. Horizon games can remain on their current release schedule and model as there is enough differentiation between titles there, for now at least.
tbh, I kiiiiiiinda agree with that to an extent. Not like a super long break or whatever, but I think FM8 would benefit from just waiting for the launch of the next console to avoid being barebones like FM5 was at the start of this gen. I don't see there really being much they can do to make FM8 a notable upgrade whilst being tied to the base XB1 hardware. We're already seeing trade-offs as opposed to pure improvements in order to incorporate new features between recent entries. I'd rather they take the time to work on getting ForzaTech ready for the next generation with less dependency on prebaked/faked elements for time of day and weather, rather than continued trying to get blood from a stone on the currrent hardware, and potentially taking the same approach for next gen as well as a result of short development times.
Horizon is a different matter entirely, due to each being set in a different location. They can release as many of those as they like as far as I'm concerned.
Yeah I think I'd like to see FM take a year off. I feel like you can't really take what they did with F7 much further on the current systems. Unless they feel like they were burned by the lootbox outrage so hard that they want a clean break. I'd probably like an expansion/year of extra support for F7 to be honest. Put the game out again updated with all of the released content and a new expansion or something. No need for another numbered sequel. We've had three proper Forza Motorsport games on the Xbox One already. No real need for a fourth. I'd buy it and presumably love it but really... we don't need it.
Okay ... I guess? What is your point? Are you implying game sells suddenly don't count if a game gets bundled? And it also doesn't count if a game gets a promotion? And it also doesn't count if it gets discounted? I don't get what you want to prove here.
All I did so far in this thread is posting simple sale chart facts because there are damn too much wrong numbers floating around in this thread. The only numbers people are playing around with are ... Leaderboard numbers. If you believe these then GTS is at 4 Mio copies sold - and FH3 at 6 Mio. Obviously both numbers are wrong. These numbers are indicators at max. They don't represent real sales.
But again ...
I want to see the receipts for this statement. Otherwise it's invalid.
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I simply mean give them longer than a 2 year release cycle. Build something a bit longer.....just feels like otherwise its ever decreasing circles...
motorsport has a 2 year schedule of release. so next one is for 2019, autumn.
if there is a new console by then, it will be primarily for that. if not, it will be for scoprio.
since we know Chris Tector, turn10 chief architect, had input in the panel for h/w design for scorpio, you can rest assured that turn10 is not out of the loop regarding h/w, no matter what the h/w will be.
having seen how forza horizon 2 case worked out for xbone and 360, you should have no worries about how it'be handled.
also, you seem to miss the point of the way fm optimizes: their goal is to keep a clear, constant screen, like a painting, a clear frame for everything but what should be moving.
so in motorsport you have less of popping up textures and geometry, less of shimmering, less of flickering, less of dancing shadows as much as it is possible, while always retaining their goal, which is max locked framerate and max resolution, platform agnostic.
that's a golden recipe in my opinion, and it pays out in gameplay, and is not something that need be "adjusted" for better shaders or whatever.
So, no matter what h/w is out, you always know Turn10 with motorsport is going to aim for max resolution, max locked framerate, aiming for faster response and faster sense of speed, so things that you guys mention will always be in the back seat.
It makes perfect sense too from a motorsport viewpoint, because it pays out.
Example, I see all these comparison between FM7 and GTS.
I have one quest(ion) for all arm chair analysts:
Rate the sense of speed in both games!
same car, same track, same speed. Compare it and rate it, I dare you.
both are 60 frames per second, aren't they? so go do it!
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No it isn't. Not by a long shot. Forza Horizon 3 is considerably ahead of GTS. Like really considerably. They're not even close.
Thanks for this tidbit. Thought it was obvious but of course tried to stay friendly.
I would love to see them get a 3rd team to do a proper, track based, over the top arcade racer. Forza PGR or something. Then go for every 3 year releases.
Thanks for the information, it was strange how a game that is consistently on the charts since release would have been caught by GTS that didnt set the charts on fire.
This would be amazing, ressurect PGR under Forza brand.
People thought GTS was ahead of FH3 in the UK? Have these people even followed the UK charts at all? Moreover, simulation driving games have a bigger route of entry than something like Forza Horizon series; especially since Need for Speed and The Crew series haven't really pushed enough to dethrone it with their less simulation focused entries. Also, GTS is in a market where there are options both on and away from PS4 like Forza, Project Cars, Assetto Corsa and so forth; plus lacking the 'number' I think sometimes affects a small amount of mindshare as there are more casual players who jump into 'numbered entries' of series that ignore what they perceive as 'spinoffs', then add in the mixed reception at launch and FH3 extra year on the market, people thinking GTS was ahead now, huh?!
Forza Horizon 4 will be a monster, insane to think it will be releasing day one on Game Pass.
Yep. I do think though that might just be "too many racers" in the first party. If anything I'd like them (perhaps PG) to have a go at a wacky futuristic racer. As that for me is a gap on Xbox. Perhaps with some combat in too. I'd be all over that.
I don't think I'm missing the point of how FM optimizes. If anything I think you missed my point. I'm well aware that to Turn 10 framerate is god, and they'll always favor that over the addition of bells and whistle or new features. That's exactly why i think it's not really worth putting out a forth Forza Motorsport game with the same base-level hardware. What do you envision a Forza Motorsport 8 providing that differentiates it from what could just be FM7 with some additional DLC? For FM6 this was the addition (or re-addition) of night racing, along with wet racing. For FM7 this was making ToD and weather dynamic... however because of the current limitations of how the engine handles lighting, and the requirement for the game to maintain 60fps on the standard XB1, the dynamic nature of these elements is notably limited, and shadows look largely worse/simpler than they did in FM6 because they need to effectively blend between the ToD states without actually being able to change positions. So, with the understanding that the game will still need to target the 2013 XB1 hardware, and that it'll need to maintain a 60fps lock, where does FM8 go from here? It's pretty much guaranteed that any other major feature additions would come with caveats, and potentially tradeoffs compared to earlier entries that needed to do less.
That's why I would prefer the series sit a year (or even two) out so there would be time to work on the foundation, rather than continue building on what's becoming a technological Jenga tower. I'm especially worried that about the possibility that a shorter development time for the nest generation would result in Turn 10 mostly carrying the current implementation over, only a little jazzed up. In both of the previous generation transitions the first FM game released lost a lot in regards to content and/or features (night racing was in FM1 for example). In FM2's case this was balanced out by the jump from 30fps to 60fps... but FM5 on the other hand simply seemed like a victim of a short dev cycle, and FM6 is effectively what a sequel to FM4 should have looked like. FM7 now feels like somewhat of a 6.5 upgrade, hinting at the dynamic elements that make sense as an evolution from FM6, but the hardware has effectively limited it from being properly impletemented. Maybe FM8 could realise this fully, but on the same level of hardware, I don't consider it to be very likely. I'm not arguing for the game to compromise its stable framerate for better graphics... but if the main difference between FM7 and FM8 ends up being its tracklist, then why is it a numbered sequel at all?
In regards to comparing GTS and FM7's sense of speed, that would almost certainly owe more to stylistic choices for FM's FOV and camera warping. The framerate wouldn't have a lot to do with it. I jump between FH3 at 30fps on console and 60fps on PC, sense of speed is basically identical despite an obvious different in fluidity.
ok, let me get this straight... (and I will leave alone for now everything you wrote about shadows etc although I dont agree)
- the old xbox is the reason that forza motorsport should take a break next year, because limitations of hardware, while
- in the slot of next year's forza 8, a ...new franchise should be introduced, one that will of course be bound by the same h/w restrictions?
and how does that make sense exactly?
then, you basically say forza 5 got victimized by turn10 because content, but fail to realise the great jump in physics and response, i.e. what is the foundation of racing (let alone jump in graphics etc). I suggest you go play some forza 4 for reference. I also had the nostalgia googles on like you.
also stuff like F1 cars, openwheelers in general various types of vehicles where introduced in f5, types that old engine could not handle. (edit: thats gameplay expansion for simmers).
also I think you miss the fact that five years in, and we just now entering a phase were other racing games offer as much content as fm5 offered day 1 this gen (200+ cars day 1 of gen, fully customizable, laser scanned tracks, online/single player, lots of dlc).
furthermore, you are also missing the fact that the most praised forza ever, forza 4, it was released on the 6th year of console's life, not the 2nd (forza 2) or the 4th (forza 3).
in fact as you correctly wrote, they had various things with striking balances, until they had the time to sort all out in fm4 (example forza 3 sound did not upgrade with engine upgrade).
and 6th year of this console life, is 2019, just in time for fm8.
and about Forza Motorsport 7 feeling like Forza 6.5, well, not if you have a scoprio it doesn't, yes? ;)
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Really? FH3 is over 500k in UK? That is good to know... I have the retail at ~300k 2017 and ~150k 2016 but maybe digital is making the difference.
A third strand of the Forza IP being restrained by the same hardware wouldn't have the same implications, because it would be a fresh experience by virtue of having little to no content overlap with prior released games. Horizon when placed alongside Motorsport already does this. Nobody plays FM6 and then questions the $60 for FH3 the following year. Hell, the Horizon games are different enough from each other for lack of technical progress to be less of a factor. The Motorsport games on the other hand are more iterative from one to the other, and so each needs to justify itself versus the last entry beyond what could be added to the game via DLC.
In regards to FM4 being year 6 for the 360.. it was still the 3rd game on a 2 year schedule. The first two years, the 360 didn't have a Forza Motorsport game, because the original hit the same year the console itself did. It's not comparable to a forth Forza Motorsport on XB1, and the series itself was far younger at the time. I'm also aware of the physics jump between FM4 and FM5 (I return to 360 entries every now and then)... but that was brought about because of the generational hardware leap. Again, it doesn't help an argument for an FM8 on the same hardware. FM5 may retroactively look better content wise now that Polyphony turned up in year 5 even more content starved, but I don't really care how it compares with the competition, I care how it compares with other entries I already own. I'd likely by a 2019 XB1 FM8 if (when) it releases then... but looking at FM6 to FM7 and imagining a FM8 following the same trend, I don't imagine there would be much to be excited about... and I'd imagine an alternately reality next gen FM8 that had the extra time, would be better than the resulting FM9 we'd get instead.
And I have an XB1X, along with a pretty decent PC, so graphically I'd be comparing FM7 to FM6 Apex.
Even with retail alone it's significantly higher. Not sure where you're getting those numbers from. Both of them are wrong. Especially that 2016 number which is less than half of what it actually sold.
I got it in the PAL threads on GAF with the % change... the first week was 12% higher than Forza Horizon 2... second week had a 71% drop... and so on...
Not meaning this as any sort of insult, but ethomaz , I've noticed your estimates on Forza titles are very often aggressively low, even after real data ends up shown. You're more active in prediction/estimate threads than me, so I'm not often in a place to retort, but it's something I've noticed.