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Raijinto

self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
10,091
Its tracking incredibly. That said I suspect this to have a far stronger digital share than a typical Nintendo game so unfortunately NPD wont give us the full story

Hopefully Nintendo releases PR on it

Yeah it has been available to pre-order on the eShop for over a month now and along with the 2× gold points incentive and the bundle with the fighter pass I'm inclined to agree. It's strong digital performance will hold it back on NPD.
 

PillFencer

Banned
Nov 15, 2018
2,431
Some games like Halo 5 might be missing because NPD stopped tracking units sales a few years ago (and we didn't get a PR from MS)
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
Yeah it has been available to pre-order on the eShop for over a month now and along with the 2× gold points incentive and the bundle with the fighter pass I'm inclined to agree. It's strong digital performance will hold it back on NPD.

Yep. I'm still expecting a massive result in physical copies sold but I wont be surprised if this has the best digital performance for a Nintendo 1st party game ever
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
I'm getting Smash for the first time. It better be good.

For your first Smash my main recommendation would be to basically ignore the competitive Smash community, at least for a little while. To me the game shines the best as a party game to play with friends, items on, stage hazards, crazy random stuff happening, all of that.

The competitive scene can feel really restrictive and imposing at first.
 

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,760
Its tracking incredibly. That said I suspect this to have a far stronger digital share than a typical Nintendo game so unfortunately NPD wont give us the full story

Hopefully Nintendo releases PR on it

Hopefully we get that data next year. Will be interesting to know how past rankings might change if Nintendo ever opens up about their digital sales.
 

Phendrift

Member
Oct 25, 2017
32,293
Its tracking incredibly. That said I suspect this to have a far stronger digital share than a typical Nintendo game so unfortunately NPD wont give us the full story

Hopefully Nintendo releases PR on it
Yeah, Smash is a game I want with me at all times so even as a primarily physical user, I'm getting digital.

They usually issue a PR a few days after big games as with Odyssey, Zelda and Pokémon so hopefully they do so here.
 

Deader2818

Member
Oct 25, 2017
714
New Jersey
Smash will likely having shortages physically due to the time of year its releasing and not many shipping days before Christmas.

Its pre-ordering well but still trending behind gow and Spider-Man pre-order wise but will do well since pre-orders never seem to show actual demand for Nintendo titles because they always get this big boost after they come out.
 
OP
OP
ZhugeEX

ZhugeEX

Senior Analyst at Niko Partners
Verified
Oct 24, 2017
3,099

PillFencer

Banned
Nov 15, 2018
2,431
Cool. I imagine digital sales would boost sales somewhat so it probably is higher than Brawl by a notable amount. But hard to know how much exactly.
In its launch month Brawl shipped 3.33 million units in the Americas ( https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2009/090508e.pdf ) and sold 2.7 million units in the USA. I guess either Canada market isn't big enough to have a Nintendo game selling close to a million units in its first two weeks and digital sales for Sun/Moon were strong enough to beat Brawl by a significant amount in the USA, or Pokémon is much more popular than Smash in Canada.
 

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,127
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
Agreed.
It took a $199 PS4 with Spider-Man to draw in the crowd that bought during BF. If it took that much for them to buy in after PS4 has been on the market for 5 years, can you really expect them to spend hundreds and thousands of dollars on the software and services? These are the kind of folk who bought it just for Spider-Man and may be done with the PS4 after that. That is why Sony only had a set amount they were willing to lose in order to get at the potential of those casual buyers to invest into the system. While it is unlikely for them to do that, it isn't impossible for them to try out something like CoD and get Plus and play with friends and stick around.
very good points from you and Screen Looker . i watched the posts on my phone today and was quite disappointed that you already stole my arguments in advance. anyway, why shutting down and not repeat once more?

asking sony to chop off 100$ just because the extra sales will bring in lots of profit by subscriptions and software is tempting but might be short-sighted. the sparrow in the hand is better than the pigeon on the roof.
1) PS4 was/is still selling nicely for 300$. 100$ off means 100$ less profit not only from those additional sales, but also from all those who would have bought for 300$. So only the delta has to bring in the lost profit.
2) the 200-$-people might be so stingy that they don't subscribe to ps+ and just get the box to play spiderman (included) and maybe a single-player/couch coop game or two on top. So the burden to recoup all the missed profit is put on comparably few shoulders.
3) please do not take money earned from ps+ subscriptions for profit. even if it's a digital service, hosting costs money. free games cost them money (at least 3rd party stuff). so the 60$ a year are not profit yet.
4) on black friday it was okay to have a good chunk of consoles ready to join the party. why should they leave that day, where people don't shop for specific stuff, but only to get something and save money, to the competition.
5) lowering the price towards the end of the generation to harvest the market and bring in as many consumers as possible, binding them to the brand and hopefully keeping them for next gen would be something that plays an important role.
6) and of course the important aspect to win an NPD month.

I think that PS4 is even making profit at 200$, but as long as it sells well for 300 they will keep the pricepoint. As soon as the curve goes down (and it might do so very soon) they can easily switch to 250$, then to 200$. but honestly, calculating the sweet spots of pricing is such a mixed bag that you can only decide something, spit out manly and sell it as the best decision to your boss afterwards.
 
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Nanashrew

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,328
I didn't use PS3 numbers because they are merged with PS2 and it's a huge mess ( thank you PS Family ) . Xbox 360 legs were fucking crazy.

As you can see there is still a lot of life in PS4 at 299 us dollars / euro. Sony first forecast was 16 M because they shifted to a profit focus ( in fact outside US all BF deals were worse than last year ) but they didn't expect Fortnite bonanza and the massive boost provided by Gow and Spider- Man.
Yeah, Xbox 360 pulled off something interesting in year 6. They lowered the price of the system and repositioned it to be more family oriented with the Kinect and they saw a boost in sales.

This is also why plenty see it unlikely for the PS4 to grow YoY next year unless something like VR suddenly takes off. And also why the idea of just simply dropping the price of the PS4 would not be enough. Basically, the Game Boy with Pokemon, and Xbox 360 with Kinect and repositioning to families are the only systems that I'm aware of to really see a a YoY growth late in life.
 
Oct 25, 2017
17,897
very good points from you and Screen Looker . i watched the posts on my phone today and was quite disappointed that you already stole my arguments in advance. anyway, why shutting down and not repeat once more?

asking sony to chop off 100$ just because the extra sales will bring in lots of profit by subscriptions and software is tempting but might be short-sighted. the sparrow in the hand is better than the pigeon on the roof.
1) PS4 was/is still selling nicely for 300$. 100$ off means 100$ less profit not only from those additional sales, but also from all those who would have bought for 300$. So only the delta has to bring in the lost profit.
2) the 200-$-people might be so stingy that they don't subscribe to ps+ and just get the box to play spiderman (included) and maybe a single-player/couch coop game or two on top. So the burden to recoup all the missed profit is put on comparably few shoulders.
3) please do not take money earned from ps+ subscriptions for profit. even if it's a digital service, hosting costs money. free games cost them money (at least 3rd party stuff). so the 60$ a year are not profit yet.
4) on black friday it was okay to have a good chunk of consoles ready to join the party. why should they leave that day, where people don't shop for specific stuff, but only to get something and save money, to the competition.
5) lowering the price towards the end of the generation to harvest the market and bring in as many consumers as possible, binding them to the brand and hopefully keeping them for next gen would be something that plays an important role.
6) and of course the important aspect to win an NPD month.

I think that PS4 is even making profit at 200$, but as long as it sells well for 300 they will keep the pricepoint. As soon as the curve goes down (and it might do so very soon) they can easily switch to 250$, then to 200$. but honestly, calculating the sweet spots of pricing is such a mixed bag that you can only decide something, spit out manly and sell it as the best decision to your boss afterwards.
I do find myself ignoring the costs to maintain PS Plus at times. So yeah, that is definitely something to keep in mind. Of course, number 6 is always top priority as well lol.

I agree with your post overall.