Wkd Box Office - 11•23-25•18 - Ralph and Creed lead a record Thanksgiving weekend. Robin Hood bombs.

kswiston · Nov 29, 2018

Heshinsi said:
Nah, WB is not profiting $350M on a film that grossed $700M, especially when most of that gross is outside of the US. For them to profit like that, that would mean every dollar this movie makes goes to the studio, and that's not the case at all. The film has a $200M budget, and when you factor in marketing, and the actual cut WB gets, they might make a small profit by the end of it.

FB2 will be profitable. That is not the issue. The issue is whether FB3 can be profitable if the franchise continues to drop off.

If the next one is 125M domestic and maybe 575M worldwide, what happens? WB takes a bath is what would happen if they don't seriously cut the budget down.

berzeli · Nov 29, 2018

Deadline revised the numbers (because of course they did, maths is, once again, not their strong suit):

Mary Poppins Returns, the sequel to the 1964 musical film that won five Oscars including Best Actress for Julie Andrews, is launching on Wednesday, December 19 to get ahead of Aquaman, which opens that Friday, and industry estimates believe the Disney-branded pic could deliver a first week in the $70 million range (Christmas falls on the following Tuesday after the Rob Marshall movie opens). Total awareness and unaided awareness (the poll category where respondents bring up a film's title without being prodded, and off which studios make their ad-spend decisions) is best with women under/over 25 at this point in time.

Aquaman in its five-day run from Friday to Christmas Tuesday is expected to bring in around $100M, with $65M over the three-day. Before anyone can scream that's lower than Justice League ($111.9M for first five days), many rival distribs expect this $160M production to leg the holiday out. We're hearing that in regards to the paid tickets for the December 15 Amazon Prime preview of the James Wan-directed movie at major cinema circuits, 65%-70% have already been sold and Warner Bros. is adding hundreds of more screens.

Also solid is Paramount's Bumblebee, which looks to take $40M in its first Friday-Tuesday. That could be higher if the movie wasn't up against Aquaman; Bumblebee's unaided awareness among all audiences is half that of Aquaman's. Paramount is holding one-day previews of Bumblebee on December 8.

kswiston · Nov 29, 2018

100M 5 day is way too high on a 65M opening. They are forgetting comic book preview numbers. Especially with the Amazon Sneaks.

berzeli · Nov 29, 2018

kswiston said:
100M 5 day is way too high on a 65M opening. They are forgetting comic book preview numbers. Especially with the Amazon Sneaks.

berzeli said:
maths is, once again, not their strong suit

.

Starphanluke · Nov 29, 2018

kswiston said:
Deadline X-Mas tracking: https://deadline.com/2018/11/aquama...-christmas-box-office-projections-1202510967/

C'mon Bumblebee. You can do it!

I just want good Transformers movies. And if Bumblebee is good, I hope it does well. Can't wait to see it on the 8th.

broncobuster · Nov 29, 2018

Paramount was gonna reboot Transformers short of Bumblebee being a smash hit. On some level I don't think they're all that bothered by this performance. It exists in a weird limbo between the old series and new.

NealMcCauley · Nov 29, 2018

Creed II is getting an IMAX release on select screens this weekend. I was curious if FB was gonna hold the screens for another week.

Starphanluke · Nov 29, 2018

broncobuster said:
Paramount was gonna reboot Transformers short of Bumblebee being a smash hit. On some level I don't think they're all that bothered by this performance. It exists in a weird limbo between the old series and new.

All signs point to it being a soft reboot. They reshot some of the film early in the year, and leaks have pointed to those reshoots being used to distance the movie from Bay's. I have a feeling that if Bee is well received critically, Hasbro will be confident following its lead.

I should specify that I actually think that $40m 5-day number is solid. I think if Bee gets strong reviews, then it will be decently leggy over the holiday season. And its budget was reasonable, so it should be able to at least turn a profit.

Heshinsi · Nov 29, 2018

kswiston said:
FB2 will be profitable. That is not the issue. The issue is whether FB3 can be profitable if the franchise continues to drop off.

If the next one is 125M domestic and maybe 575M worldwide, what happens? WB takes a bath is what would happen if they don't seriously cut the budget down.

I was just pointing out that there's no way they'd be profiting $350M on FB2. As another poster pointed a few posts earlier, their profits on the first one was around $165M. But your point is the most important thing in the discussion. Releasing sequels with smaller and smaller returns is not productive at all. I'm pretty sure Alien Covenant made a profit as well right? And yet Fox decided to can the sequel because the returns were shrinking.

broncobuster · Nov 29, 2018

Starphanluke said:
All signs point to it being a soft reboot. They reshot some of the film early in the year, and leaks have pointed to those reshoots being used to distance the movie from Bay's. I have a feeling that if Bee is well received critically, Hasbro will be confident following its lead.

I should specify that I actually think that $40m 5-day number is solid. I think if Bee gets strong reviews, then it will be decently leggy over the holiday season. And its budget was reasonable, so it should be able to at least turn a profit.

True. The Cybertron stuff alone seems is very different than the Bay films.

Maybe it'll be the First Class of the series. Who knows.

WastemanLoso · Nov 29, 2018

I expected Aquaman to have better than this, but it will have legs.

It's been 54 years since "Mary Poppins" first floated into moviegoers hearts, but nostalgia seems to be a little stronger than a spoonful of sugar and should translate into big bucks for Disney. Early tracking shows the latest live-action update of a Disney classic could generate roughly $65 million through Christmas Day, with $40 million during its first five days of release. "Mary Poppins Returns" is getting a head start on one of the business weekends for moviegoing by opening on Wednesday, Dec. 19. "Aquaman," another blockbuster hopeful gracing screens that Friday, is heading toward an equally lofty $65 million launch over the holiday frame, according to studio insiders. "Bumblebee," "Second Act," and "Welcome to Marwen" are also joining the Christmas race that weekend with mixed results.

Seeya · Nov 29, 2018

Venom China Update

Venom @ 248.99M in China going into the weekend. Did 7.3M over the weekday stretch (I had a possible range of 6.5-10).

Looking to do around 7-9M over the weekend according to Gavin so he might know something in terms of screens that I don't.

Infinity War 4-day: 7.2m

a long weekend bumped Thursday by 15%. This is why the two are so close for this snapshot.

Infinity War Friday was up 192%, if Venom can show better comparative numbers on the sat/sun/mon then it should be in ok shape. The performance during the competitive week of Dec 3rd is key.

Jurassic World 2 weekend 5.4M
4 day lead up: 7.45M

JW2 sometimes edges out Venom during weekdays but loses big on weekends. Assuming that Venom does 8M and ends up at 256.99M, this would place it around 11-12M ahead. Would need to hit 18-19M lead by end of run to secure 280M

Infinity War did 379M (going by comment Gavin made+his data till the 38th) 18.09M more, this would push Venom to 275.08M like for like.

Using BOMs data, JW2 did another 15.6 after the weekend. If Venom only performed as well it will gross 272.6M.

Like I said earlier the 270–280 range is the most likely range for it to fall into, but it could get decimated by the upcoming releases.

Rvaan · Nov 29, 2018

WastemanLoso said:
I expected Aquaman to have better than this, but it will have legs.

berzeli said:
Deadline revised the numbers (because of course they did, maths is, once again, not their strong suit):

Penguin · Nov 29, 2018

NealMcCauley said:
Creed II is getting an IMAX release on select screens this weekend. I was curious if FB was gonna hold the screens for another week.

Hmm what is the imax schedule like for the rest of the year?

I believe Aquaman gets it for opening, but is Bumblebee or Spider-man in it at all?

NealMcCauley · Nov 29, 2018

Penguin said:
Hmm what is the imax schedule like for the rest of the year?

I believe Aquaman gets it for opening, but is Bumblebee or Spider-man in it at all?

Aquaman's their Christmas movie for sure. Other than that I honestly don't know. Their site lists Mortal Engines, but Regal's site says Spider-Man will play in IMAX and they open the same day. I guess theaters will pick and choose unless Regal made a mistake.

Either way they probably didn't expect FB to deflate so quickly.

jack_package_200 · Nov 29, 2018

Roma is getting a few screenings in my city in a single theater! I get to see that on the big screen!

I am so excited!

Seeya · Nov 29, 2018

Noobie
Your numbers:
215M DOM, 370M ROW, 270M China
855M total

As of 25th-27th without most countries having been added
ROW 369,834,268

More likely that it creeps closer or in excess of 380M with Japan and places like Argentina still putting in work etc. I feel like no one noticed the later opening of Japan or it's holds.

China

With Venom sitting around 260M after this weekend 270–280M is a good range for it. 280M still possible, performing just as well as IW/JW2 would get it to mid/low 270s. Venom has consistently been outperforming them but there is stiff competition coming.

DOM

Looks like you were right about Venom not hitting 215M. The reason I had been expecting a bump from the entimates is because they were below Logan, even though Venom had (going in)

Better drops
Higher PTA
And only a relatively small theater disadvantage to come

I completely underestimated just how much the big new releases would clip its. Good call!

DOM 213M
ROW 380M
China 275M

Would put it at 868M with table scraps maybe getting it to 870M. Venom can still do 880M, but it's all about the upcoming two weeks in China as well as what Japan does. The extension in China is mandatory obvi, as is outperforming the rest of JW2, and it continuing to perform in Japan.

Sense · Nov 29, 2018

Barring a miracle, I think venom is not passing homecoming. If venom had made 900m and passed homecoming and Spider-Man 3, it would have been great to see the reactions lol. oh well, maybe the sequel will pass them

Seeya · Nov 29, 2018

Aquaman Presales : China

So far Aquaman is having a pretty decent showing of Presales in China. 7 days out, it's above films like Thor 3 and Justice League, but not close to Venom/Antman2/Infinity War

Other Films 7 days out (Opening day presales only, not including midnight and sat/sun)

Presales are pretty reliable as indicators for up front interest, how the film gets received is another matter.

Thor Ragnarok 1.55M
Ant Man and the Wasp 4.81M
Fantastic Beasts 0.57M
Justice League 1.5M
Venom 6.38M

Aquaman 1.65M

Sweeney Swift · Nov 30, 2018

Lars von Trier's The House That Jack Built made $172k at the Wednesday special screenings of the director's cut. Already over half of what Nymphomaniac made in the US

NealMcCauley · Nov 30, 2018

New trailer for Welcome to Marwen, in theaters December 21.

Don't feel too bad if you forgot this movie existed because I'm pretty Universal would prefer it that way.

NealMcCauley · Nov 30, 2018

Possession $625K last night

There's only one new wide release this weekend and that's Screen Gems microbudget R-Rated horror movie The Possession of Hannah Grace from helmer Diederik Van Rooijen, and last night from 1,866 locations, the movie made $625K from shows that started at 7PM.

Sony is expecting $3M for the weekend, however industry estimates think it could do $7M and that's a great number we hear for this movie that cost under $10M and has an estimated P&A around $12M.

Disney's Ralph Breaks the Internet will continue to rule No. 1 in its second weekend with $31M after a nine-day cume of $93.5M and MGM/New Line's Creed II will continue to be No. 2 with a $20M second outing following a $64.3M nine-day total to date.

carlsojo · Nov 30, 2018

NealMcCauley said:
Possession $625K last night

Haven't really heard anything about this movie at all. Just random ads but no buzz.

berzeli · Nov 30, 2018

NealMcCauley said:
Possession $625K last night

That would be a pretty damn great result, and a big overperformance with Sony apparently projecting $3M, BOM predicting $2.8M, and boxoffice.com $3.2M.

Sony keeps on winning... (nobody mention The Front Runner in the Spider's Web)

Seeya · Nov 30, 2018

China Update

Venom will pass Jurassic World Fallen Kingdoms total (261M) in China by Sunday/Monday

Source: http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/daily/?date=11 /30 /2018

From 'the future' in China: Venom pulled in 2.58M (—42.2% last Friday), a very good drop. It's very possible that the upcoming Aquaman has actually helped boost some return viewings for Venom, given that Tencent handled both and it has been a bit since Venom, the last CBM.

Infinity War on the holiday Friday did 5.58M then 5.00M Sat and 3.98 Sun. The fact that Venom did so well on the Friday bodes very very well for Venom to retake the lead on Sat/Sun.

Unless Sat/Sun become depressed by the upcoming Aquaman, Venom should be heading for 9-14M over the weekend, if the tencent connection is real it will be great for both of them.

If Venom performs well over the weekend and doesn't fall behind Avengers during the week overall?

That 280M number that ..."no one"... was predicting (haha), is a virtual lock even with Padman/2tpoint0 looking to do decent. * still needs that extension obvi

It's also possible that Spider-verse helps Venom retain some mind share.

berzeli · Nov 30, 2018

boxoffice.com long range tracking

Code:

Mortal Engines                      $13,000,000    -7%    $46,000,000    -8%     
The Mule                            $16,000,000    +7%    $80,000,000    n/a       
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse   $30,000,000    +3%    $135,000,000   +4%   
Mary Poppins Returns                $38,000,000    -5%    $320,000,000   -9%
Aquaman                             $58,000,000    +6%    $212,000,000   +6%

They are still very low on Spider-Verse, then again they don't have the greatest of track records with animated film and were way too low on Venom. So I hope that's the case here

More importantly they are tracking this thread's most talked about film:

Code:

Arctic Dogs                  $5,500,000     $17,000,000   
The Kid Who Would Be King    $15,000,000    $50,000,000
Serenity                     $10,000,000    $30,000,000

That's... that's higher than I would have dared to put it.

Deleted member 42 · Nov 30, 2018

Serenity q.q

Seeya · Nov 30, 2018

Spider-verse is at 49 reviews 100% fresh and 9.0. Can't wait for Spider-verse to outgross Solo.

Mr. Pointy · Nov 30, 2018

Seeya said:
Spider-verse is at 49 reviews 100% fresh and 9.0. Can't wait for Spider-verse to outgross Solo.

Can it do 2 Solos though. At most, I'm thinking it'll hit 1.5 to 1.6 Solos.

I know there's some buzz around it and that Post Malone song is everywhere, but it doesn't feel like Venom buzz.

Deleted member 4260 · Nov 30, 2018

When does the embargo for Bumblebee lift?

Seeya · Nov 30, 2018

Mr. Pointy said:
Can it do 2 Solos though. At most, I'm thinking it'll hit 1.5 to 1.6 Solos.

Based off nothing 1.5 to 1.6 Solos isn't something I'd predict, but that's just the kind of insane moxy that will piss off a certain fragile and infirm old timer who likes to reframe history to feel better about himself, so that is something I can respect.

Daddy likes.

We should base all of our Spider-verse predictions off of conversions to Solos.

Put down for 1.25 Solos! :P

Edit: Like I had said earlier I was a little surprised to see Gavin project so low for Venom over the weekend. It should be locked to hit 260M by Monday unless it fades on Sat/Sun. With Friday coming in so Strong Venom could break 260M over the weekend.

If Venom doesn't get an extension it will down to Sony fucking up. If ACF hadn't blown up Venom would still be number 1 almost every week since it came out.

Aquaman is surging in presales but what it's actually doing atm is unclear due to fuckery. Some basic math suggests that it's ahead of Justice League, but not necessarily beasting to Venom levels.

kswiston · Dec 1, 2018

Seeya · Dec 1, 2018

kswiston said:

Pretty steep LWs for Ralph and FB2, how did the originals fair on their second weeks?

sources:
http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/daily/
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/search/?q=Venom

Venom is almost certain to break 260M in China this sunday.
Venom pulled in 5.67M (-35.9%) in Saturday in China. This is one of the higher margins of performance over Infinity War that Venom has had recently.
Higher than Infinity Wars 5.00M. (to be fair to Infinity War a holiday weekend ending Thursday/Holiday Friday could sap some Sat/Sun performance)

Friday Saturday 2-day
Infinity War 10.57M
Venom 8.34M

Venoms Sunday drops have had a range of -24% --- -32% with an average drop of 27.5%
Venom could get within 2M of Infinity Wars holiday weekend. Crazy good result.

It's looking increasingly likely that the Tencent connection is real and that enthusiasm for Aquaman is helping drive Venom.

Sweeney Swift · Dec 1, 2018

NealMcCauley said:
Possession $625K last night

Sorry to say I and 9 other people in my theater today also saw this trash

It's gonna make its budget back at least and that'll justify a sequel being made

ryutaro's mama · Dec 1, 2018

WastemanLoso said:
I expected Aquaman to have better than this, but it will have legs.

So it won't open as big as Cameron's Aquaman.

Xyer · Dec 1, 2018

What the fuck is the "Kid Who Would Be King"?! That picture above. Lmao. Iron Man/King Arthur?

Starphanluke · Dec 1, 2018

super anime man 64 said:
When does the embargo for Bumblebee lift?

It has to be soon? I'm seeing it next Saturday.

IDreamOfHime · Dec 1, 2018

berzeli said:
boxoffice.com long range tracking

Code:

Mortal Engines $13,000,000 -7% $46,000,000 -8% The Mule $16,000,000 +7% $80,000,000 n/a Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $30,000,000 +3% $135,000,000 +4% Mary Poppins Returns $38,000,000 -5% $320,000,000 -9% Aquaman $58,000,000 +6% $212,000,000 +6%

They are still very low on Spider-Verse, then again they don't have the greatest of track records with animated film and were way too low on Venom. So I hope that's the case here

More importantly they are tracking this thread's most talked about film:

Code:

Arctic Dogs $5,500,000 $17,000,000 The Kid Who Would Be King $15,000,000 $50,000,000 Serenity $10,000,000 $30,000,000

That's... that's higher than I would have dared to put it.

Oh man, are the knives out for this movie? I've been wishing Joe Cornish luck with it.

Chirotera · Dec 1, 2018

I didn't even know Robin Hood was a thing. This is the first I've even heard of this movie. Looks pretty awful though, like it's overly stylized and has nothing else going for it.

Seeya · Dec 1, 2018

In case anyone is curious here are the Friday Saturday estimates for China in Yuan. Venom should break 1800M on Sunday, Monday at the latest.

Friday estimates

Cool Fish 39.2M / 494.8M
Venom 17.9M / 1747M
Ralph Breaks 11.05M / 177.1M
102 Not Out 7.95M / 8.65M
Blood Father 5.7M
Johnny English 3 6.35M / 118.2M
Fantastic Beasts 2 3.15M / 378M

Saturday estimates

Cool Fish 73.4M / 568.7M
Venom 40M / 1787M
Ralph Breaks 34.1M / 211.2M
Johnny English 3 15.8M / 134M
102 8.4M / 16.9M
Fantastic Beasts 2 7.65M / 385.6M
Blood Father 3.5M / 9.3M
Crazy Rich Asians 3.03M / 5.92M

Rvaan · Dec 1, 2018

Y'all. Spider-verse is legit.

Seeya · Dec 1, 2018

Rvaan said:
Y'all. Spider-verse is legit.

Hype through the room my man hype through the roof.

kswiston · Dec 1, 2018

This month will have many interesting runs.

Next week is still dead, but after that, we get a deluge of releases.

For fun, place your bets on the big late Dec releases:

Spider-verse
Domestic OW:
Domestic Total:

Mortal Engines
Domestic OW:
Domestic Total:

Aquaman
Domestic OW:
Domestic Total:

Mary Poppins
Domestic 5 Day OW (opens Wed):
Domestic Total:

Bumblebee
Domestic OW:
Domestic Total:

OrangeAtlas · Dec 1, 2018

I don't do bets if there's no reward in it for me.

snapcracken · Dec 1, 2018

kswiston said:
This month will have many interesting runs.

Next week is still dead, but after that, we get a deluge of releases.

For fun, place your bets on the big late Dec releases:

Spider-verse
Domestic OW:$5
Domestic Total: $1.3B

Mortal Engines
Domestic OW: $267M
Domestic Total: $3.5B

Aquaman
Domestic OW:$56M
Domestic Total: $12M

Mary Poppins
Domestic 5 Day OW (opens Wed): $854k
Domestic Total: $85.4M

Bumblebee
Domestic OW: $35M
Domestic Total: $36M

Deleted member 42 · Dec 1, 2018

I'm posting in here for a later date!

Sweeney Swift · Dec 1, 2018

kswiston said:
This month will have many interesting runs.

Next week is still dead, but after that, we get a deluge of releases.

For fun, place your bets on the big late Dec releases:

Spider-verse
Domestic OW: Half the money
Domestic Total: All the money

Mortal Engines
Domestic OW: None of the money
Domestic Total: None of the money

Aquaman
Domestic OW: Some of the money
Domestic Total: Maybe half of the money

Mary Poppins
Domestic 5 Day OW (opens Wed): Some of the money
Domestic Total: A third of the money

Bumblebee
Domestic OW: Some of the money
Domestic Total: Half of the money

Aquaman's "Maybe half of the money" changes to "Half of the money" with good reviews. That's the one part of the month I'm at all unsure of, Aquaman reviews

BiggestGeekEver · Dec 1, 2018

Spider-verse
Domestic OW: $44M
Domestic Total: $175M

Mortal Engines
Domestic OW: $12M
Domestic Total: $30M

Aquaman
Domestic OW: $72M
Domestic Total: $268M

Mary Poppins
Domestic 5 Day OW (opens Wed): $55M
Domestic Total: $405M

Bumblebee
Domestic OW: $23M
Domestic Total: $85M

DMVfan123 · Dec 1, 2018

Mr. Pointy said:
Can it do 2 Solos though. At most, I'm thinking it'll hit 1.5 to 1.6 Solos.

I know there's some buzz around it and that Post Malone song is everywhere, but it doesn't feel like Venom buzz.

Hopefully the people who went to the free PS+ screenings get the word out

Rvaan · Dec 1, 2018

DMVfan123 said:
Hopefully the people who went to the free PS+ screenings get the word out

Same. That movie was soooooooo good.

Wkd Box Office - 11•23-25•18 - Ralph and Creed lead a record Thanksgiving weekend. Robin Hood bombs.

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