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Benji

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Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
I think people get confused by seeing "Sony wins the month!" But they ignore how well everybody was doing and that Nintendo and Microsoft make up a lot of lost ground in December. So 11 months of hearing Sony likely "winning" and yet being told it's not some sort of blowout.

Indeed.

I mean despite PS4 taking so many months of the year the gap between PS4 and Switch for 2018 is tiny. Small enough that it's still possible Switch outsells PS4 for the year. Same with Xbox One, it's been in 3rd place pretty much all year, but has had great growth and is extremely healthy.

None of this is taking away from PS4s tremendous performance this year, it blew away mine and most peoples expectations. But a lot of people simply focus on the leader or who's "winning" NPD months and not looking at how healthy the whole market currently is
 

Deleted member 2785

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Oct 25, 2017
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Yeah it's not great. Have to talk about the leaders for press coverage, but cant add detail because of partner agreements. I get the frustration and confusion, but the vitriol is unfortunate.
 

AnubisRising

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Nov 7, 2017
307
i think if we can just get rid of the stupid whos winning mentally everything will be better. We all win if every company is doing good
 

Deleted member 2145

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someone legitimately had an issue with me suggesting that a console could come in second place overall and still have done well for itself

people are weird with this sort of stuff. too tribal
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Yeah it's not great. Have to talk about the leaders for press coverage, but cant add detail because of partner agreements. I get the frustration and confusion, but the vitriol is unfortunate.

That sadly comes with the territory with both A) the internet and B) gamers.

I'm not sure why people need to be so childish about these things but a lot of them do.
 

Deleted member 2785

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Oct 25, 2017
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Can't imagine the grief I'd get if for the Novemeber release I didnt list the hardware leader or said that 2 consoles came in virtually tied...
 

Bunkles

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
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Oct 26, 2017
5,663
Yeah I think system placement on a chart only matters if there is a big difference. It's a good guide to tell the consumer or enthusiast how each system is doing on the market. With all three systems so close this year it almost feels like splitting hairs who comes out on top.

Personally though I still find it interesting who ultimately ends up on top. It's a shame it gets ruined by fanboys taking shots.
 

Inuhanyou

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,214
New Jersey
Yeah I think system placement on a chart only matters if there is a big difference. It's a good guide to tell the consumer or enthusiast how each system is doing on the market. With all three systems so close this year it almost feels like splitting hairs who comes out on top.

Personally though I still find it interesting who ultimately ends up on top. It's a shame it gets ruined by fanboys taking shots.

the gaming market has been fueled by PR competition for decades...not exactly new

I keep trying to tell people in the PS5/X2 speculation thread that X is performing well but they won't listen.

well we had already heard that last month the X sold more than the S, so its not really so suprising. Iterative machines at the halfway point are seemingly here to stay. I guess that possibly means that the base units will be much weaker to intentionally kneecap them for the bigger jump later on, since you cant really count on die shrinks all the time to prop up justifying iterative refreshes, especially with moores law almost dead
 

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,806
I cant comment on the actual gap, but there are people out there that think it's 2:1 or higher in favor of PS4.

In the X thread someone was saying PS4 had over 80% share.

And whats particularly funny there is that there are a bunch of people quite unhappy with what I said about X and not one person has asked about Pro, which has also been doing exceptionally well. But it's not really about understanding the business with more depth, is it.
I think a lot of people who aren't following sales closely get confused, such as NPD specifically covering NA and not worldwide sales, mixing up monthly vs ytd vs ltd, etc.
It ends up muddying the conversation unfortunately.

As per Xbox, I think there's a lot of context to apply, and it's been an interesting story to follow for sure.
I think when many appreciate the PS4 gap in the US, they put it in context of this area being the strongest historically in sales for MS by far, and the PS4 still outselling it on a monthly basis, even after years of discounts and new programs like bc or Gamepass.
Now it's not to say the XB1 has done badly in absolute, as until recently it was keeping pace with the 360 I believe, and had a stronger beginning in fact, but even counting the X (which certainly switched the mindshare in terms of absolute power discussion) it seems to me the results have been lackluster overall in terms of regaining lost ground of marketshare, while MS did manage to increase their existing userbase engagement.
Can't wait for the start of the new gen and see how the new strategies/ hardware and the market will mix.
 

Dynedom

Member
Nov 1, 2017
4,661
Any PS4 or Switch fanboys that are upset that their respective console doesn't win the whole year are ridiculous. Both have had phenomenal years. The XB1 has also had a good year, even if it finishes third overall.

All console makers are laughing their way to the bank.
 

Astandahl

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,007
PS4 performance impressed me a lot this year because i expected it to be down YOY. Instead is having hist best year since launch despite being sold at an higher average selling price than last year.

Everyone is just doing great this year in US. Hopefully this trend will continue next year and beyond.
 

Deleted member 2785

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PS4 performance impressed me a lot this year because i expected it to be down YOY. Instead is having hist best year since launch despite being sold at an higher average selling price than last year.

Everyone is just doing great this year in US. Hopefully this trend will continue next year and beyond.

I also expected declines this year but then God of War and Spider-Man happened, and they've been real smart with bundles and promotional pricing.

But so many things have gone perfectly this year for PS4, it's not reasonable to assume that this can be sustained. I've upped my forecast for next year but another year of growth is just incredibly unlikely. Would be great to see though.

If total market gets to growth next year it will be in the low single digits. This year has set a very high bar with higher than usual incidence of upside outliers.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,089
Indeed.

I mean despite PS4 taking so many months of the year the gap between PS4 and Switch for 2018 is tiny. Small enough that it's still possible Switch outsells PS4 for the year. Same with Xbox One, it's been in 3rd place pretty much all year, but has had great growth and is extremely healthy.

None of this is taking away from PS4s tremendous performance this year, it blew away mine and most peoples expectations. But a lot of people simply focus on the leader or who's "winning" NPD months and not looking at how healthy the whole market currently is


Some people do look at the whole market but they also look at it in the context of the system they like .

For example you have people saying how great the XB growth is this year but that also because last year was there worst year.
It also because of deals and X etc etc that they up this year

Then someone else will say even with all of that Sony is still ahead of them with less deals in there strongest market .

I mean all of that is fact even if it look like console war .
People just choose to focus on the facts of the system they like and that won't change if ever .
 

Astandahl

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,007
I also expected declines this year but then God of War and Spider-Man happened, and they've been real smart with bundles and promotional pricing.

But so many things have gone perfectly this year for PS4, it's not reasonable to assume that this can be sustained. I've upped my forecast for next year but another year of growth is just incredibly unlikely. Would be great to see though.
This year there was Fortnite bonanza as well.

Just the perfect year with two exclusives which outperformed everybody expectations by far. By the way i agree with you that next year is going to be almost impossible to keep up for PS4 and One but hopefully Switch will be able to sell a bit more than this year so the overall market won't suffer too much.
 
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gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,089
I keep trying to tell people in the PS5/X2 speculation thread that X is performing well but they won't listen.

Performing well in what context ?
Plus when it comes to the PS5\X2 thread people talk WW.

well we had already heard that last month the X sold more than the S, so its not really so suprising. Iterative machines at the halfway point are seemingly here to stay. I guess that possibly means that the base units will be much weaker to intentionally kneecap them for the bigger jump later on, since you cant really count on die shrinks all the time to prop up justifying iterative refreshes, especially with moores law almost dead

Where did you see that ?
We heard that a X SKU sell the best not that it out selling the S overall.
Unless i wrong .
 

Benji

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Oct 25, 2017
8,114
I suspect Switch will be up YoY most months next year. Release slate will likely be far stronger than this year, there is a new revision model releasing, and likely we will see its first price cut.

Xbox and PS4 however I'm expecting down YoY almost every single month
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,089
I suspect Switch will be up YoY most months next year. Release slate will likely be far stronger than this year, there is a new revision model releasing, and likely we will see its first price cut.

Xbox and PS4 however I'm expecting down YoY almost every single month

Without a price cut Sony will be down for certain .
Still they just going try and get as much profit as the can unless system sales drop off to hard .
 

Renna Hazel

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,557
I also expected declines this year but then God of War and Spider-Man happened, and they've been real smart with bundles and promotional pricing.

But so many things have gone perfectly this year for PS4, it's not reasonable to assume that this can be sustained. I've upped my forecast for next year but another year of growth is just incredibly unlikely. Would be great to see though.

If total market gets to growth next year it will be in the low single digits. This year has set a very high bar with higher than usual incidence of upside outliers.
I assume you're talking revenue, but do you think PS4 can see unit growth if they do a permanent drop to $200? I think they would see at least a comparable year to 2018 if they did that.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
I suspect Switch will be up YoY most months next year. Release slate will likely be far stronger than this year, there is a new revision model releasing, and likely we will see its first price cut.

Xbox and PS4 however I'm expecting down YoY almost every single month

The revision for next year is only rumored AFAIK, do you actually know if one will be coming?
 

Alandring

Banned
Feb 2, 2018
1,841
Switzerland
I also expected declines this year but then God of War and Spider-Man happened, and they've been real smart with bundles and promotional pricing.

But so many things have gone perfectly this year for PS4, it's not reasonable to assume that this can be sustained. I've upped my forecast for next year but another year of growth is just incredibly unlikely. Would be great to see though.
Even if Sony launch The Last of Us Part II in 2019 and definitly drop the price of the PlayStation 4 at 199$ ?
 

slavesnyder

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Oct 26, 2017
1,127
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
winning and losing are just constructs of our meritocratic society to keep us fighting each other, pulling us deeper and deeper into the morass of guilt, hate and monetary masturbation.
it's uplifting that there are still lots of brave citizens in this thread who have the moral force to overcome the perfidious and cynical logic underlaid by sales statistics and rankings.
 

Deleted member 49804

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Nov 21, 2018
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I have a feeling that those rage gaming youtubers are going to have an absolute field day with this streaming service. Particularly with every competitive multiplayer.



Someone mentioned in another thread that the gap is roughly 1 million per year in favor of the PS4. In 2018 thus far it's 935K between XBOX and PS4. Obviously it's your job to crunch the numbers but 1 million a year seems pretty substantial, particularly since NA is XBOX's strongest market.

1 Million isn't substantional in the US without the right context.
The missconception comes from the fact, that Ps4 is outselling Xbox by roughyl 1 million during the slow months when the toal units sold so far is just 2 - 3 million. Hence it's basically perceived as 2:1.
But then the holiday season happens and Ps4 and Xbox One sell roughly the same. And due to more overall units being sold during the holiday season that ratio gets heavily diluted.
You end up with something like 5.5m vs 4.5m for example and that is a 1.2:1 sales ratio.

On a lifetime to date basis, Ps4 is outselling Xbox One by just over 15% in the US. Or for every Xbox One sold, Sony sold 1.15 Ps4.

The shortages were unfortunate, because yes there was demand that could not be met.

And yes, both iterative boxes have done well, and the whole concept has been a success.

But I responded to someone on Twitter who said they wanted to stay off Twitter on data release day because they get ridiculed over sales results because he's an Xbox fan. Which is ludicrous on many levels, one of them being that Xbox One has had an incredibly successful year.

Of course after I put that out there I've gotten quite a few... passionate... replies. Were anyone to actually ask follow up questions or look into it just the tiniest bit... but that's not what some are interested in. They just want to attack. It's sad.
80% marketshare is a sales ratio of 4:1 if there are only 2 competitors.


Most people just have a hard time to understand different types of numbers.
But you can't really blame them. If you're not into that stuff or work with numbers it's easy to get fooled by your intituion.
 

Evangelista

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Aug 21, 2018
708
I suspect Switch will be up YoY most months next year. Release slate will likely be far stronger than this year, there is a new revision model releasing, and likely we will see its first price cut.

Xbox and PS4 however I'm expecting down YoY almost every single month
Do you believe the new model will have differences in hardware or only screen type and better battery? what you think?
 

Deleted member 2785

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Oct 25, 2017
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This year there was Fortnite bonanza as well.

Absolutely, which had a huge impact, particularly in 1H. But that applied more across the board. Comping that as an industry is going to be exceptionally difficult unless we have some new phenomenon show up.

I assume you're talking revenue, but do you think PS4 can see unit growth if they do a permanent drop to $200? I think they would see at least a comparable year to 2018 if they did that.

For HW I'm talking units. I'm assuming that ASPs will have to come down, whether through a permanent price drop or additional price promotion. Keep in mind though that a price drop is a complete margin hit, so you have to increase sales at a far greater rate than the level of the price reduction in order to maintain the same profit. And I'm not sure the price sensitivity is there to have this math make sense (which can also be inferred from the flow of units for BF).

I suspect Switch will be up YoY most months next year. Release slate will likely be far stronger than this year, there is a new revision model releasing, and likely we will see its first price cut.

Xbox and PS4 however I'm expecting down YoY almost every single month

Switch should be up Jan-Oct, Nov-Dec will be a tougher comp. And yeah, thinking XBO/PS4 will both have tough comps next year. If COD returns to Nov next year the Oct declines will look real, real bad.
 

Instro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,002
Switch should be up Jan-Oct, Nov-Dec will be a tougher comp. And yeah, thinking XBO/PS4 will both have tough comps next year. If COD returns to Nov next year the Oct declines will look real, real bad.

At face value obviously Pokemon next holiday will be a monster. I would assume that the Switch being up next year will come down to price, and if they do release the rumored "Switch Pro/Lite".
 

klanar

Member
Jun 9, 2018
398
Absolutely, which had a huge impact, particularly in 1H. But that applied more across the board. Comping that as an industry is going to be exceptionally difficult unless we have some new phenomenon show up.



For HW I'm talking units. I'm assuming that ASPs will have to come down, whether through a permanent price drop or additional price promotion. Keep in mind though that a price drop is a complete margin hit, so you have to increase sales at a far greater rate than the level of the price reduction in order to maintain the same profit. And I'm not sure the price sensitivity is there to have this math make sense (which can also be inferred from the flow of units for BF).



Switch should be up Jan-Oct, Nov-Dec will be a tougher comp. And yeah, thinking XBO/PS4 will both have tough comps next year. If COD returns to Nov next year the Oct declines will look real, real bad.
And this november NPD will look real bad too?
 

Deleted member 2785

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Oct 25, 2017
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In other news...

NPD Group: Total Industry Consumer Spending on Video Games in U.S. Increases 24 Percent to $9.1 Billion in the Third Quarter of 2018

Port Washington, NY, November 30, 2018 – According to the Q3 2018 Games Market Dynamics: U.S.* report from leading global information company The NPD Group, overall total industry consumer spending on video gaming in the U.S. reached $9.1 billion in the third quarter of 2018 (July-Sept.), an increase of 24 percent compared to the same time period last year.

Video game content sales increased 25 percent to $7.9 billion. All content categories, which include full-game, DLC/MTX, subscriptions, and mobile saw increases, with mobile games and digital content for console and portable platforms experiencing the most growth.

The software titles having the most positive impact on dollar sales in the third quarter include (listed alphabetically) Candy Crush Saga, Fortnite, Madden NFL 19, Marvel's Spider-Man and NBA 2K19.

Hardware sales grew 11 percent in the quarter to $737 million, led by Xbox One, PS4 and Plug & Play devices like NES Classic and SNES Classic. Accessory sales* grew 44 percent in Q3 2018 when compared to a year ago, with headset and game card sales setting all-time records in Q3 dollar spending. Game cards sales reached a record high, growing 63 percent to surpass accessories for the first time in the third quarter of a calendar year.

"The Video Game market in the U.S. continues to thrive with compelling gaming content expanding the market, driving higher spending of hardware, accessory and software," said Mat Piscatella, games industry analyst at The NPD Group. "And with the sales strength of recent releases such as Marvel's Spider-Man and NBA 2K19, combined with cross-platform titles such as Fortnite, there appears to be no slowing down as we head into the final stretch of the holiday shopping season."

Methodology: Games Market Dynamics: U.S. provides a comprehensive measure of the consumer spend on video games in the U.S. including purchases of video games hardware, software and accessories as well as on PC games. It is released on a quarterly basis and provides insight and trending into the broader consumer spend on the industry including physical format sales such as new and used physical retail sales as well as game rentals, and digital format sales including full game digital downloads and downloadable content (DLC), spending on subscriptions and mobile gaming. This assessment of the broader consumer spend on the industry utilizes NPD's monthly POS tracking services as well as consumer data from other NPD trackers, monitors, and reports.

*Accessory sales exclude game cards
 
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Jaal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
221
Can someone please give me the estimated numbers of Xbox One sales year to year in Usa ?

Thanks in advance.

So, Benji confirmed a new Switch model. Interesting.
 

Deleted member 2785

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MatPiscatella how do you feel now regarding your prediction about the Switch being the biggest platform for software at retail in 2018 ?

Still feel good about it. And if it doesn't take the top spot, it'll likely be close. PS4 has overdelivered on all expectations (even Sony's). That's great.

Given available data at the time, wouldn't change a single thing about my predictions. But that's the thing with predictions... as more information becomes available things change.

Predictions/forecasting in the Video Game space I'd argue is the toughest category in any store to get completely right.

I used to model dog food sales for Masterfoods USA. I could tell you to the dozens of units what the impact of a 2 cent price drop on wet beef chunk would be across the entire USA. Video games? You nail a forecast if you're within +/- 15%.
 

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,748
Still feel good about it. And if it doesn't take the top spot, it'll likely be close. PS4 has overdelivered on all expectations (even Sony's). That's great.

Given available data at the time, wouldn't change a single thing about my predictions. But that's the thing with predictions... as more information becomes available things change.

Predictions/forecasting in the Video Game space I'd argue is the toughest category in any store to get completely right.

I used to model dog food sales for Masterfoods USA. I could tell you to the dozens of units what the impact of a 2 cent price drop on wet beef chunk would be across the entire USA. Video games? You nail a forecast if you're within +/- 15%.

Well now I have to know which industry you enjoyed tracking more.
 

Deleted member 2785

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Well now I have to know which industry you enjoyed tracking more.

I love the video game market because it's so chaotic and impossible. And I enjoy making predictions and could not possibly care less if they don't work out because it's an impossible industry to predict/forecast. And hey, I've been dressed down by some of the biggest names in the industry for not getting forecasts/predictions right in the past, and yet here I am still doing it, because I base them in solid grounding and rationale and I'm right more than half the time, which is about as good as can be expected. Dog food/CPG forecasting is fine because it's so easy and the quant tools available are amazing, but it's pretty boring. All driven by formula. Video games needs far more art and creative thinking.

Can you tell us about the infamous Dog Food Wars?

The Uncle Ben's vs Minute Rice battles were far more interesting.

MatPiscatella, does the NPD Group track Mexico too? Any info/insight about that market?

Yes. Unfortunately, I'm not able to comment on it publicly.