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Switch Will Outsell PS4 Worldwide Next Year, Xbox One Will Be Third - Strategy Analytics Prediction
- Thread starter Deleted member 249
- Start date
Fire Emblem Three Houses is actually my most anticipated game... lol
Hmmmm. I don't know. The Switch only has two semi-big games that we know of that are coming out next year (Yoshi and Luigi's Mansion 3) and while the world needs Metroid Prime 4 that series has never been a mainstream megahit. The PS4 doesn't seem like it has a ton either, though The Last of Us 2 will definitely drive sales.
I think it's reasonable to think next year will be similar to this year for the Switch, most months the PS4 will outsell it with maybe one or two months before he holiday season lined up for Switch due to a few releases or sales/bundles. So, if that's the case, will the Switch have a big enough Black Friday/Christmas to sell more than the PS4? It wouldn't shock me, but my early prediction is PS4.
Granted I don't know if any of the announced Sony games with no release date will come out next year (GoT, Death Stranding, etc.) though I doubt it. The main thing I'm unsure about is how the potential reveal of a PS5 might affect 2019 sales, especially if there aren't many killer exclusives.
Not a crazy prediction though.
I think it's reasonable to think next year will be similar to this year for the Switch, most months the PS4 will outsell it with maybe one or two months before he holiday season lined up for Switch due to a few releases or sales/bundles. So, if that's the case, will the Switch have a big enough Black Friday/Christmas to sell more than the PS4? It wouldn't shock me, but my early prediction is PS4.
Granted I don't know if any of the announced Sony games with no release date will come out next year (GoT, Death Stranding, etc.) though I doubt it. The main thing I'm unsure about is how the potential reveal of a PS5 might affect 2019 sales, especially if there aren't many killer exclusives.
Not a crazy prediction though.
This. And regardles which console will take the number one spot both will sell well. This is especially remarkable for the PS4 which had it's peak already.
Pokemon Generation 8 and Animal Crossing are both 2019 titles.
I totally forgot about Pokémon somehow.
Yeah Switch is selling more, never mind.
Mine too, but I'm not a woman. :p
JRPGs in general tend to have a larger female audience than most genres, with Pokemon, Final Fantasy, and Fire Emblem in particular being very popular with women.
And don't forget all the Final Fantasies! Okay that's not shifting many units, but still; I'm excited.
Console audience is but one factor in choosing where to sell your games.
I don't think this is a safe bet.
PS4 has some big exclusives potentially dropping next year, in addition to all the huge third party games that won't hit the Switch but will shift PS4s in the fall.
I'd be surprised if this happened, tbh.
PS4 has some big exclusives potentially dropping next year, in addition to all the huge third party games that won't hit the Switch but will shift PS4s in the fall.
I'd be surprised if this happened, tbh.
I ain't a woman either. Fire Emblem is for every anime fan with good taste lol
Of course we need more numbers before we're certain but the numbers we just got in the US are essentially the exact type of numbers we needed to see if they were gonna hit their forecast. A 1.2-1.4M November suggests a 2-2.5M December and with the US usually accounting for 30-35% of their global Q3 shipments that gives them the ~11-13M they needed for Q3.
Obviously it's a lot of extrapolation and fuzzy math right now but the data we had before their PR was not nearly as favorable for achieving their goal.
Feels like that's exactly what they're building towards with all these studio aquisitions. I think Microsoft will go really hard with first party software.
Of course, they needed a basically historic holiday in the US to pull it off and folks were questioning whether it could be that exceptional and it would lead to the regular sales needed in Jan-Mar to make the fuzzy math actually work.
They will likely overship to 20, but it'll be interesting to see as it won't be a slam dunk on the prediction as I remember many thought it would give the first year.
Yeah absolutely, if they hit it they will only just hit it. I was a lot more confident when they announced the goal because I assumed their confidence in the goal would be reflected in the software lineup but that was sadly not the case outside of November and December.
And I'm still not super confident that they'll hit it, I'm probably at 60/40 at the moment. Smash numbers could very well move that upwards though.
It'll be an interesting end to the year. I expect we'll see Smash on some year-end sales revenue lists. Right above Mario Kart 8 for on the year revenue lol
Actually. What do we even know coming next year for switch?
Yoshi, Fire Emblem, Pokemon, Luigi Mansion and probably Animal Crossing? Those is all range from medium to very big hitter.
Anyone with a little sales knowledge will not take the numbers seriously as they are bollocks, but even if we go by them then it still would be a disappointing year as that would be a drop of near 3 million.
Don't really know Animal Crossing, right? and the assumption is no further year plus delays on Yoshi/FE which got delayed out of this year.
Optimistic folks are hoping for Metroid Prine 4. There's a lot going on in Nintendo development world.
This is a more reasonable estimate than the Bloomberg one, but 17 million for Switch is way too low still imo. And I doubt they would be talking about sell-through, since why would they? Every measurable forecast has always been shipped, and I don't see a compelling reason to think otherwise here. And even then, 17 million sell-through still strikes me as too low.
I think with the line-up we know about (FE3H, LM3, Yoshi CW, AC, Pokémon gen 8, NSMBUDX) things are already looking better than this year, and the year hasn't even started- this year had a good number of mid-tier and top-tierannouncements during the first quarter. As such, I except sales to be much stronger during the non-holiday quarters, while the holiday quarter could be flat or something like that. I expect 23-24 million for the next calendar year.
I think with the line-up we know about (FE3H, LM3, Yoshi CW, AC, Pokémon gen 8, NSMBUDX) things are already looking better than this year, and the year hasn't even started- this year had a good number of mid-tier and top-tierannouncements during the first quarter. As such, I except sales to be much stronger during the non-holiday quarters, while the holiday quarter could be flat or something like that. I expect 23-24 million for the next calendar year.
Yoshi and FE3H wont be delayed further i believe lol. They already had quite a lot extra dev time there.
For AC i am not sure if it will be 2019. Metroid 4 and Pikmin 4 also probably could happen there.^_^
No way Xenoblade 2 is releasing in 2017 lol
Not sure if that was the point being made, but I found the joke funny regardless!
Third year is when there's enough software and usually a lower price to reach max adoption rate for a console. Will Nintendo drop the price though? I don't think so unless they greatly miss their numbers for shipped units this year.
So technically, yes, a number multiples of millions lower than their estimates this year would be considered bad.
I predict that the market will take a noteworthy dive next year (-15% revenue, -10% units). The Fortnite effect which pushed all three platforms massively this year and allowed especially Sony and MS to sell their 5 year old consoles with little discounts throughout the year (except holiday season) will slowly but steadlily fade away, and I expect that the announcements of PS4 and XBOX One successors will affect sales negatively as well. Especially the X and Pro which for all I know are also a major factors of this year's excellent results will especially be affected by the announcement by the even more powerful next-gen consoles, while the base units can still be pushed by "price".
Revenue-wise 2019 will be an easy win for Switch, units will be much closer. Depends on Sony's willingness to reduce price. My guess is Nintendo will target 20mn units again, and Sony 15 worldwide for their next FY. For MS I expect sales on 2017-level.
Revenue-wise 2019 will be an easy win for Switch, units will be much closer. Depends on Sony's willingness to reduce price. My guess is Nintendo will target 20mn units again, and Sony 15 worldwide for their next FY. For MS I expect sales on 2017-level.
Genuinely had forgotten or not seen they put a year on it. Thanks.
I was a never Xenoblader. My friend and I fought forever on that one until the day it released lol
Haha, those were the times indeed! I'm glad it hit December that year, perfect time for an 80 hour JRPG.
It would be pretty astonishing if a console in its sixth year outsold another successful console that is only in its 2nd to 3rd year.
Unless usual generational trends are bucked in a pretty unlikely fashion then the crossover with a console as young as Switch has to happen at some point. PS5 will be coming a year later.
Unless usual generational trends are bucked in a pretty unlikely fashion then the crossover with a console as young as Switch has to happen at some point. PS5 will be coming a year later.
It would be pretty embarrassing if the switch couldn't outsell the ps4 with animal crossing and Pokémon that year vs the PS4's twilight year. It's pretty much guaranteed to outsell the PS4.
I suspect the biggest 'hit' Sony has up their sleeves is an official price drop, and next year for that feels about right; it's still not really at that sweet "family/kids console" pricepoint.
On a similarish note, of course, the Switch has the "multiple systems per family" possibility, which isn't really viable for Sony; it's probably priced too highly for that currently, but after 2019 that avenue's going to open up for it.
Twilight year?
PS4 has had an astonishing sales curve (largely thanks to pro) in which years 4 onwards are comparatively MUCH stronger than past consoles. It would still take a fair amount to outsell PS4 next year given that it has peaked later than most consoles do.
To be honest I think they're still underestimating switch, and that it will definitely outdo PS4 unless they have a major price cut - I just don't think anyone should downplay it as 'just a new system outselling a dying one' kinda thing
Yeah, but it's still a PS4.
It's like revisions from last gen but better. There are no exclusives for the Pro.
PS4, XBO will be 6 years running in 2019, regardless of when their mid gen refreshes came out. Both have next gen rumblings out there, MS more so than Sony.
I can't see the PS4 keep selling like it is now, time eventually catches up.
That's why some are like it wouldn't be good if the Switch didn't start selling more. It should.
In Japan it's taking over, but not at the expense of PS4 sales. It's just selling better. From just eye balling Media Create threads the PS4 still seems to be selling like it was before the Switch launched. I could see the same thing happening elsewhere, especially in the US.
It selling better doesn't mean it's hurting PS4 sales. It's just selling better.
If anything, the bigger news is how since the Switch launched its leap frogged the XBO in monthly sales and could eventually pass it in life time sales before the next gen Xbox.
Well yeah? Switch will hit its stride because it's the 3rd year while both PS4 and Xbox are on the way out for next gen which will most likely launch in 2020. Depending on when PS5/Xbox launches Switch should also sell the most in 2020 however I expect it to be lower compared to 2019 as by year 4 all the biggest franchises or Nintendo system sellers will already be out on Switch and they will be competing in that year marketing wise with aggressive MS and Sony.
The problem is see with that is the game there releasing now are bigger in US compared to other regions like EU so I expect for US to have a higher share precentage wise in Q3 compared to the usual one.
The problem is see with that is the game there releasing now are bigger in US compared to other regions like EU so I expect for US to have a higher share precentage wise in Q3 compared to the usual one.
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This is my position too. Yet they might even go over that with a new hardware model and a possible price drop on the original model.
I would say 25 million Switches in 2019 seems more realisitc, because they have big titles for basically any month and some long awaited franchises incoming like 2D Mario, Luigi's Mansion, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Animal Crossing, Mainline Pokemon Game, Metroid?, Bayonetta?....
Also Final Fantasy.^^ And I think I still forget some.
Also Final Fantasy.^^ And I think I still forget some.
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Switch also has a ton of big exclusives. Animal Crossing, mainline Pokémon, Luigi's Mansion 3, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, and more. It should also see a price drop and possibly it's first revision in 2019. Should start 2019 with a ton of momentum with Smash likely still moving some units to start off the year since it releases so late in 2018.
PS4 has been a juggernaut, but as it continues to sell more it's going to start to reach saturation point in some markets and sales will slow. Even if they slow a tiny bit next year it will make that much easier for Switch to move more units. Especially considering Switch May move more this year despite PS4 exceeding expectations by a good clip this year.
Anything can happen but the more I think about it the more I do think this is the safe bet.
Possibly, but why would one make a topic or article about this, when in fact it's about selling 200k units more.
That is not outselling. That is selling on par.
That is not outselling. That is selling on par.
Yeah, not sure why people are downplaying the PS4 all of a sudden as if it's basically dead. I guess if they downplay PS4 here, then Switch being in the same ballpark is non-news.
Eh, anything to win a war I guess.
The PS4 will easily, and comfortably be the 2nd best selling home console of all time. It got a successful revision a couple of years ago, and has showed no signs of dying due to great software and other things.
It's gonna breeze by 100m, which seemed improbable back in 2013. And who knows how it can sell once PS5 is out, or how low they'll go with the price.
But now all of a sudden it's "well of course you should beat a 5 year old console" as if the ps4 is any old random console, when it's clearly not.
everything's a competition tho
Even NPD Matt thinks sales will drop next year. It's not console wars to think PS4 sales will decrease. Every product has a bell curve sales pattern. PS4 sales are lower this year then the year before and that decline should continue into next.
Maybe your post is hyping up the PS4 to make Switch selling more next year to be an amazing feat.
I'm pretty sure you had already pegged the Switch to outsell the PS4 in 2018 or be close to it so your post seems kind of just fodder for stoking fanboy flames.
and, again, the poster I was responding to was talking about being disappointed by Switch this year if it doesn't beat PS4 which is silly. and, also again, that poster was solely expressing disappointment with rankings devoid of any kind of context which is, also again, silly
kind of feels like you quoted the wrong person or didn't fully comprehend the discussion you jumped in on