I don't think Switch is getting a price drop that early in it's console life, but ps4 is pretty much assured to have aggressive pricing on it's way out.
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Switch Will Outsell PS4 Worldwide Next Year, Xbox One Will Be Third - Strategy Analytics Prediction
- Thread starter Deleted member 249
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I don't think Switch is getting a price drop that early in it's console life, but ps4 is pretty much assured to have aggressive pricing on it's way out.
Pokemon Gen 8 is next year? Just a year after the current one? That's interesting. Perhaps it could go either way then because that title will probably have extremely strong sales, and push consoles.
It was announced together with Let's Go (well technically it was announced last year) and is positioned as "core" title.
Animal Crossing is also something to look out for as that series sells gangbusters (10+ m range) and serves a demo that is relatively underrepresented on Switch - women.
Yup, Pokemon for Switch and TLOU II, IF it releases in 2019, will be two juggernaut titles for Switch and PS4. Can't wait :D
Is animal crossing big in west? I know it's massive in Japan.
Actually the don't. 17 millions is what they are also predicting for this year, which is lower than Nintendo target.
The PS4 can't keep selling this well forever. It's clearly past its peak in Japan, and in the U.S. it's only up YoY this year because of GoW, Spider-Man, and RDR2 (ignore April, September, and October, and its baseline is down slightly). Sooner or later, Sony is going to run out of people to sell it to, and eventually no amount of price cuts will keep a system from irreversibly declining (we also never see deep price cuts this late into a generation, so $50 is the most I'd expect to see if we even see a price drop). Even Sony is predicting post-peak soon, if their shipment projections are any indications. Their mid-year sell-through update also suggested a YoY decline globally, which given sales in the U.S. & Japan there had to be noticeable drop elsewhere. The first few months of next year ought to give us a good indication of where the PS4 is headed, but I think it's about to enter its twilight years. I think 2019 ought to be down noticeably from this year.
Meanwhile, the Switch is still young and has nowhere to go but up. Nintendo has yet to issue a price cut, which could happen next year. Also, Gen VIII Pokemon is due out next year, and that's guaranteed to be a major system-seller. The Switch ought to pull in serious numbers next year.
The possibility of the Switch coming in #1 in 2019 is not too far-fetched.
Meanwhile, the Switch is still young and has nowhere to go but up. Nintendo has yet to issue a price cut, which could happen next year. Also, Gen VIII Pokemon is due out next year, and that's guaranteed to be a major system-seller. The Switch ought to pull in serious numbers next year.
The possibility of the Switch coming in #1 in 2019 is not too far-fetched.
The handheld versions sell 10m+, not the console versions. The best selling console version is the Wii release at 4.32m. It's possible or even likely that Animal Crossing Switch tops the Wii versions numbers, but I'm not sure about it hitting 10m+.
Dunno about the split.
I think it's main potential in terms of system moving is it's expanded audience appeal. It's a franchise said to be able to court the female demo.
A mainline Pokemon game, Animal Crossing and New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe are very heavy hitting games and I can definitely see Switch selling the most in 2019. However, Sony could make the PS4 $199 next year as well, but with the rumored new Switch model next year, I can still see Nintendo selling the most.
I'm pretty confident that Animal Crossing on Switch will sell exactly like the handheld versions.
Switch's a hybrid.
And eeing the Switch bump trend, I assume it will probably top New Leaf.
I mean, the Switch is a handheld too, it's a hot item, and everyone is on a single system. There's no audience segregation anymore. If anything, everything points to Animal Crossing selling its best ever.
makes sense, as switch is going to be in its prime but ps4 would be winding down as we get closer to its successor.
Pokemon 2019, Animal Crossing, Luigi Mansion 3, and Fire Emblem, plus evergreen title like Smash Bro and New Super Mario Bros. from this December and early next January can certainly make it possible.
And if Bayonetta 3, Metroid Prime 4, Star Fox Racing, and the Dragon Quest XI port make it next year too, then damn.
And if Bayonetta 3, Metroid Prime 4, Star Fox Racing, and the Dragon Quest XI port make it next year too, then damn.
There's like 100 people in this thread saying that it depends on a PS4 price cut. I need to know what historical data is pointing to that conclusion. What consoles have had a 6th/7th year increase YoY due to a price cut? My list begins and ends with Xbox 360, and that was more due to Kinect and re-positining as a family console.
there's also like a 100 people who just read the title and not the text in the OP (what else is new) and assume someone is saying switch will pass ps4's LTD next year.
this is not a crazy prediction at all, regardless of any possible price cuts in the future.
We've seen the selling power of a $200 PS4 the last couple of Black Fridays.
Pokémon usually skips one year every 3-4 years; otherwise, it's effectively been an annual franchise since 2007.
It would be pretty shocking if a hot console would not outsell the competition in its third year when they are in their sixth year. The fact that the analysts consider it close is the actual showstopper here.
Also, I'd like to join in on the Phantom Thief group hug.
Also, I'd like to join in on the Phantom Thief group hug.
I thought your initial post was implying the xbox number was too low lol
New model and a ton of heavy hitters announced doesn't make this a particularly bold prediction.
I geuss Days Gone, TLOU2 and Ghosts? But they are skipping E3 so maybe those are 2020?
Anyhow, this is just analysts being analysts. For all we know X1 will outsell both.
AC is probably the third biggest franchise ( Pokémon, Mario and Animal Crossing).
You uh dropping a hint or something?
cause as it stands, the only super-bombs confirmed for 2019 are AC and Pokemon.
I think FE,Yoshi, NSMBU Port, and LM3 will sell a ton of SW and keep Switch hardware selling and maintain momentum, but in terms of games that can cause skyrocket hardware alone, there's only 2 at the moment.
that may change in the next 2 months of course. But as it stands....
Keep in mind Let's Go, Mario Party, and Smash Bros. hadn't been announced at this point last year. I think it's fair to expect a couple major 2019 software reveals early next year.
I also believe two or three big hits + half a dozen or so "mid-tier" releases (like Yoshi and Fire Emblem) will be enough for Switch to see strong adoption growth next year .
Yeah it absolutely will. There aren't as many huge games on PS4 as this year. Switch will have a stronger year. Plus an extra couple of SKUs will drive double dipping and likely coincide with some kind of lower cost model.
Even so, the NPD numbers we have now suggest Switch will outsell PS4 in sell through in the US for CY 2018, and we know it is far ahead in Japan. We don't have concrete numbers for the rest of the world but I don't think it's a stretch to believe that if this is true in the biggest two markets it could be true elsewhere.
So even if they miss the shipment goal they appear on track to win 2018 in sell through.
I think Animal Crossing, Pokemon, and Fire Emblem will all be important titles for Switch next year because all three of those have a proportionally large female audience. That's a demo that's been relatively under-served so far on Switch.
These threads are amazing.
OP content: Console in 3rd year will outsell console in 6th year by 200k, in 2019.
Posters: "Man, there's gonna be a chasm!"
OP content: Console in 3rd year will outsell console in 6th year by 200k, in 2019.
Posters: "Man, there's gonna be a chasm!"
I wouldn't underestimate NSMB U Deluxe, the debut trailer is sitting at 2.1m views and it's the kind of game families will pick up with ease. Animal Crossing and Pokemon are also two of Nintendo's best selling properties. The tier list for 3DS went:
Mario Kart
Pokemon
Pokemon
Pokemon
2D Mario
3D Mario
Animal Crossing
Smash
Of course there's more in 2019 though, Nintendo announce games months before release, not years (with a few exceptions)
What's up with this a lot more likely business? They still have more numbers we need to see to know that or did some other worldwide reports come in as well?
Why is this even a discussion?!
we are talking about what is probably the last 1.5 years of the PS4 when the ps5 is likely to be revealed sometime in 2019 and the switch is going to enter its third year which is usually around the Peak of console sales.
seriously the fact that they would outsell them next year is a surprise to no one.
we are talking about what is probably the last 1.5 years of the PS4 when the ps5 is likely to be revealed sometime in 2019 and the switch is going to enter its third year which is usually around the Peak of console sales.
seriously the fact that they would outsell them next year is a surprise to no one.
But Michael Pachter prediction is always close to perfect.