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NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
- Start date
This is a bizarre take. The ps4 is either tied with or outpacing the sales of the ps2, their best selling console of all time. The pro is a tiny fraction of sales- it would be at all time highs even without it. On the other hand the ps3 had numerous redesigns to lower cost, from the 20g BC model, to the 80g partial BC, to the slim, to the super slim, to the flash memory only model. The ps4 has had only 2 hardware refreshes, including the pro.
Sales of the ps3 LTD arent close at all to the ps4, and you can count on one hand the other console systems that broke 80 million at ALL, let alone in a 5 year period.
Unless something bizarre happens the ps4 is certain to be Sony's second best selling console behind the ps2, and the second best selling console hardware period.
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Interesting. My original guess for November based on Benji's posts was Sony selling the most units and Nintendo selling the most based on revenue. I thought that Facebook deal might've messed that prediction up, but probably not enough units to matter.
Either way, this month sounds like a nail biter, but also that in terms of unit sales, everybody should be happy.
I'm curious about how the new Nintendo online service is doing. I imagine you don't get data on subscriptions signed up from the devices themselves, but do you get data on the NSO cards?
MS don't give sales numbers anymore so it wouldn't matter to combined both. They will just report Gamepass revenue.
I would think that if Mircosoft are leading next generation, they would happily start sharing sales numbers again.
I doubt it because then they would have to admit that XB1 sales weren't revealed because they thought it was underperforming.
And already PS4 made Sony more money than PS2 and PS3 (loses) combined.
nah, they don't need to admit anything. they'll tweet happy facts whenever they appear. it's PR. it might give us a good laugh here, but we are not the target of these tweets anyway.
Correct. Extrapolating from cards to subs has, as you'd imaginge, a massive range of error. So we don't do that. We do have EEDAR's PlayerPulse survey product that allows us to do better modeling around subs. Still not perfect, and has a range of error like any sample based survey does, but I think it's ballpark if not pretty close. That's what I use when constructing the spend estimates for the total market releases quarterly.
This is what bothers me with that statement about Azure. I can tell you working with it using Office 365 with international offices does not give me confidence in their game streaming side. It is laggy, there are sync issues at times, and updates are not always as real-time as it should be (Not able to use their new Geo-functionality yet though). Also, Sony has had "streaming" boxes since PS4 started using other devices (although they discontinued TVs, PS3, and Vita). Evidently, it is working so far with PS Now because they are improving it and add more games/features. My question would be is if MS would update XB1 to do the same? Because I am not sure a pure streaming device that would operate similar to a Roku would be good enough.
If these box will only be able to stream games i see them as a huge entry barrier only. Do you think Netflix would have been succesful if you needed a specifc box in order to use it?
And if this streaming technology will be available for PC , TV etc what is the point of a branded box that does only that?
Maybe i'm wrong and MS will be able to sell these things like hotcakes but i'm not confident about it right now.
And if this streaming technology will be available for PC , TV etc what is the point of a branded box that does only that?
Maybe i'm wrong and MS will be able to sell these things like hotcakes but i'm not confident about it right now.
Yup.
Only seeing them rushing to announce any sign of "winning month or period" tells a lot.
They are desperate for this kind of good PR.
They wouldn't care at that point though. X1 would be old news.
How did Spider-Man do outside of bundles this month? I imagine it is up being a popular game for the holidays.
So poetic.
The power of the stream. Also power of the sea. And the power of the cloud is just the power of vaporized water and hot air so it all adds up.
Maybe, but there would probably be some weird spin to them.
Poor Starlink. :(
Edit: Only one of the titles on the All Platforms YTD is available on a Nintendo platform. Yikes.
Edit: Only one of the titles on the All Platforms YTD is available on a Nintendo platform. Yikes.
I think it will have a big drop because of the bundle, hope I'm wrong though.
What are Xbox fans saying? I assume you're not one of them, hence you bing it up as a dismissive point.
What's talked about is an IF scenario. Are you familiar with that concept?
Starlink is interesting, I just got the Starfox one. The game really seems to be competent and well-presented, with lots of things to tinker with in-game, and the "toys" are of good quality.
But unlike Disney Infinity and Lego Dimensions, they decided to take the Hot Wheels approach here, and I'm trying to figure out why. What I mean by this is when you buy a Hot Wheels set, much of the time you only get one car to play with - when much of the possibilities of interactivity are with two or more cars going down the tracks, or doing the stunts, or what have you.
And so with Starlink you only get one ship, when a big part of the appeal of the game (and what helps reduce the onset of repetition) is mixing and matching pilots, ship parts, and weapon parts. Especially since co-op support is built in. With the other toys-to-life games, you got at least two characters to play with, if not more characters and things to work with.
So is there some sales wisdom that says that this approach was the best one? Hot Wheels seems to be doing fine.
Bing is never nothing but a dismissive point.
Sorry, I won't bing it up again.
What titles has SW received this year that should be on the All Platforms chart?
None, and that's why it warrants the yikes. It's a real bummer that we're almost at year three of the Switch and it's still missing so many heavy hitters.
eShop digital sales are not currently included in the monthly reporting. Good thing to keep in mind when looking at the all platforms charts.
Welcome to 2006.
Heck, welcome to 1996.
Third parties rarely drive Nintendo hardware sales. Though, there is actually one third party game not fully represented by NPD (at least visibly in these reports) that is likely having more impact on Nintendo hardware than any in recent memory, Fortnite.
Not for sure. Wii's best mark was "about" 800k, "more than double" the previous year's "about" 350k. This leaves a very large range of possibilities for Wii, and therefore for Switch as well.
That's true even ignoring the 7 vs 5 days issue.
That's starting with the January report, isn't it? I seem to recall that being said, but maybe I'm imagining things.
Except they did in 5 years what another did in 10 (2006-2016).
PS2 was roughly at the same mark after 5-years, and it ended its 10year production cycle in US @ 53.65M - nearly 2x of PS3.
Actually that makes for an interesting point - unless I'm missing something 360 5 years in was just about half of its LTD in US. Granted it did the rest at much lower price, so revenues were down, but unit-bump looks bigger to me than anything we can reasonably expect from 1x or Pro in the same 5 year span. Hell it might have even outsold PS2 if we just compare last 5 years of each console.
ZhugeEX, MatPiscatella - can either of you comment on that?
Hypothetically speaking, let's say company X decides to begin sharing a new data set with the NPD group. Now that should obviously mean you'd be getting monthly updates from that day on, but what about previous sales? Do you typically get relevant metrics for a given time period? Total sales? Is it basically a clean slate? Or has it really been case by case what the company is willing to share or has available?
Ps3 was announced at 80 million on Nov 2013 (7 yrs). https://gamerant.com/playstation-3-sales-80-million/ I dont believe there was a single sales announcement after that which was telling. I'd be surprised if it sold more than 5 million more from 2013 on. Similarly, 360 did not have nearly the long tail I expected. PS2 seemingly was an outlier in that respect.
It probably just does not make any sense to continue much support for a console after it's successor is on the market, in myriad ways, chief among them that it's likely simply not profitable. I remember being surprised when MS quietly announced they'd stopped 360 production much earlier than I expected. It pretty much has to be for profit reasons. They cant get much price for the hardware or software at that point. This may be somewhat different to the PS2 era as I believe hardware stays at a higher BOM, longer, than in the past. PS2 included PS1 hardware as an I/O processor! Rest assured PS5 will not include Ps4 hardware in any respect, it'd be far too expensive.
Super Mario Party has a shot at making the NPD top 10 until the year of the year (4 months).
Regardless it already did remarkably with 1m units sold in the US.
Regardless it already did remarkably with 1m units sold in the US.
People like talking about whether Microsoft can outsell Sony in the US next gen because it's a change in the status quo. It's always much more interesting to discuss how the status quo can be change. I haven't seen any (reasonable) person say it's a guarantee. Personally I wouldn't even say it's likely, especially before we even know any concrete details about what they'll be selling. Just that there are reasonable and logical scenarios where it could happen considering the difference between the two isn't humongous.
What I want to know is it it's had a noticable impact on extra Joycon sales cause they are required for 4 player
"We have a device for those of you who care about sales numbers: Xbox Scarlet."
;)
Companies see the data covering the platforms they share. Back data to Jan 2012 is required.
I don't give a f about game streaming either from Sony MS Google SE or Apple. The infrastructure ain't ready for it yet. Funny thing about it almost every post I read regarding Xbox streaming is how it would seemingly revolutionize the streaming industry just like the power of cloud......
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The topic at hand was US sales, and relative comparison was to what happened in first 5 years vs. afterwards.
360 was at 22M and PS3 at 13.5 by Nov 2010, with LTDs of around 49M and 29M respectively.
If sales really stopped in 2013, that would mean both sold around 2x as fast in the final 3 years compared to the first 5(4, in case of PS3).
It fell off very quickly, but there was still that December (1m units worldwide?) plus 3 more years to go. During 2014 Sony shipped 2.8m; the years after that are more guesswork, but crawling toward 3m combined is plausible. So rather than 5m, 6-7m is pretty plausible. But you're right that there was a hard transition to PS4.
That's it, thanks!
There was a recent Ars Technica article which compared Switch to other platforms over their first 20 months (i.e. Switch up until this month). The original chart has tons of confusion and oddness, so I revised it as best I could.
Two things to note here:
1. N64 might potentially be above Switch if the numbers were from 20 months rather than 15. That 5-month gap includes a December. During the same period (launch-aligned), the Gamecube sold 1.1m, and the N64 was generally more popular.
2. After this month and next, Switch will climb the chart. This is due to its launch period being out of sync with most of the other entries. (GBA, PSP, 3DS, Vita, and Switch are the non-holiday launches.) In another several months, it will in turn be passed again. And of course, inn the fullness of time the order will change more fundamentally.
I have a feeling that those rage gaming youtubers are going to have an absolute field day with this streaming service. Particularly with every competitive multiplayer.
Someone mentioned in another thread that the gap is roughly 1 million per year in favor of the PS4. In 2018 thus far it's 935K between XBOX and PS4. Obviously it's your job to crunch the numbers but 1 million a year seems pretty substantial, particularly since NA is XBOX's strongest market.
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Oh fascinating. I realized they see data for their competitors but I wasn't thinking how they'd get access to historical data. But how does that work for a company like Nintendo? If they don't give their digital sales data now, have they been restricted in what they see? And if you're saying they'd be required to provide sales data from 2012, does that mean they would be required to provide data for all of their existing platforms during that time period? That would certainly make for an interesting news day.
I feel like I'm misunderstanding something fundamental here. Thank you for your patience.
Then when it comes to others things \context people say massive etc etc .
And others are like WTF , so then it gets all confusing lol.
I'm not exactly sure on the gap since I don't follow the numbers that closely. I know the 2018 split is 935K from recent NPD threads tracking the split.
I cant comment on the actual gap, but there are people out there that think it's 2:1 or higher in favor of PS4.
In the X thread someone was saying PS4 had over 80% share.
And whats particularly funny there is that there are a bunch of people quite unhappy with what I said about X and not one person has asked about Pro, which has also been doing exceptionally well. But it's not really about understanding the business with more depth, is it.
In the X thread someone was saying PS4 had over 80% share.
And whats particularly funny there is that there are a bunch of people quite unhappy with what I said about X and not one person has asked about Pro, which has also been doing exceptionally well. But it's not really about understanding the business with more depth, is it.
It seems like there are a lot of people out there who want to paint that the One X is how a mid-gen upgrade should be done and want to really devalue the impact the Pro has had for PS4.
It's really odd. If anything it just shows that overall the mid-gen upgrade was a great idea for both of them and likely why we are now hearing so many rumors of a switch upgrade.
Really wonder how much more of an impact the Pro would have had this year if it wasn't for such wide-spread shortages middle of the year.
2-1 in North America doesn't make sense! Neither does an 80% share in NA. I/We really like your insight but things tend to get heated. I suspect people see your headline and don't read the articles or source material. Also, it seems people are extrapolating NA stats and applying that to the entire market. That thread is a mess lol
The NPD faithful still appreciate your insights!
The shortages were unfortunate, because yes there was demand that could not be met.
And yes, both iterative boxes have done well, and the whole concept has been a success.
But I responded to someone on Twitter who said they wanted to stay off Twitter on data release day because they get ridiculed over sales results because he's an Xbox fan. Which is ludicrous on many levels, one of them being that Xbox One has had an incredibly successful year.
Of course after I put that out there I've gotten quite a few... passionate... replies. Were anyone to actually ask follow up questions or look into it just the tiniest bit... but that's not what some are interested in. They just want to attack. It's sad.
And yes, both iterative boxes have done well, and the whole concept has been a success.
But I responded to someone on Twitter who said they wanted to stay off Twitter on data release day because they get ridiculed over sales results because he's an Xbox fan. Which is ludicrous on many levels, one of them being that Xbox One has had an incredibly successful year.
Of course after I put that out there I've gotten quite a few... passionate... replies. Were anyone to actually ask follow up questions or look into it just the tiniest bit... but that's not what some are interested in. They just want to attack. It's sad.
I think people get confused by seeing "Sony wins the month!" But they ignore how well everybody was doing and that Nintendo and Microsoft make up a lot of lost ground in December. So 11 months of hearing Sony likely "winning" and yet being told it's not some sort of blowout.