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Do you think Nintendo will reach its 100m Switch software FY goal ?

What do you think ?

  • They'll fail to reach it (<95m)

    Votes: 24 9.8%

  • They'll reach it (95m-110m)

    Votes: 66 27.0%

  • They'll sell even more (111m-140m)

    Votes: 127 52.0%

  • They are going to explode it (>141m)

    Votes: 27 11.1%
  • Total voters
    244
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Since April, when Nintendo officially announced its targets for the current fiscal year (Apr 18' - Mar 19'), a lot of the discussion was centered around its hardware target (20m Switch shipped for the FY). However, when it was announced, a lot of people were especially doubtful the 100m software target. 7 months later what do you think ?

Some key numbers :

Software sold for the last FY : 63.51 millions
Software sold for the 1st half of the FY : 42.13 millions

Software sold during the 1st quarter : 17.96m (+120% YoY)
--> major releases : DKTF, Mario Tennis Aces, Crash Bandicoot, Minecraft physical
Software sold during the 2nd quarter : 24.17m (+73% YoY)
--> major releases : Octopath Traveler, MHGU

The fact that Switch is overperforming significantly vs last year without any of the big guns yet led me to believe that they are going past their software target.

How much do you think they'll end up selling ?
 
ZhugeEX

ZhugeEX

Senior Analyst at Niko Partners
Verified
Oct 24, 2017
3,099
Easily. Smash and Pokemon alone will be in the region of 20m+
 
delete12345

delete12345

One Winged Slayer
Member
Nov 17, 2017
19,656
Boston, MA
Well, that's a /thread if I ever seen one. But yeah, I could see Pokemon and Smash hit lifetime sales of that much by themselves.
 

Deleted member 3017

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,653
delete12345 said:
Well, that's a /thread if I ever seen one. But yeah, I could see Pokemon and Smash hit lifetime sales of that much by themselves.
Click to expand...
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They'll hit those numbers by the end of March, if we're talking about a combined 20 million like Zhuge suggested.

Now if we're talking about 100 million lifetime between the two, that'd be wild.
 
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Derachi

Derachi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,699
Ask any analyst and they'll say they're doomed, so they're probably going to sell like 120 million.
 
Nanashrew

Nanashrew

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,328
Very easily with the pacing they've got going, and Pokemon and Smash being guaranteed huge sellers with long legs.
 
KillerMan91

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,354
Yes and this was clear from day one. Switch shipped already 63 million units of sw last FY like you pointed out. Even with normal increase it was always going to go past 100 million this FY. I guess they gave pessimistic sw target so that if they missed their optimistic hw target they could still point out sw overperforming their forecast.
 
RedAhmed

RedAhmed

Member
Jan 9, 2018
3,273
Easily, Smash and Pokémon alone will likely be 1/4 of that sum. Add in holiday sales and deals and it will top 100-120 million software sales.
 
Peleo

Peleo

Member
Nov 2, 2017
2,656
Absolutely, I think the Evergreens (Mario Kart 8, Splatoon 2, Zelda BotW and Odyssey) will continue to play a big part of it as well.

By the end of the Fiscal Year:
Super Mario Party -> 5m
Pokemon Let's Go -> 10m
Smash Ultimate -> 14m
Mario Deluxe -> 7m

Add in some third parties and Indies and you get there.
 

Deleted member 2145

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
29,223
they'll sell more easily

lost in all the will they won't they squabbling over the 20 million number is the fact that they're going to cruise past the software number
 
unicornKnight

unicornKnight

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,163
Athens, Greece
Wow 42 already in first half, crazy!! Isn't it funny how the company that doesn't do price drops get to have the best software legs? Maybe other publishers should start taking notes.
 
Instro

Instro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,001
It will probably be a bit closer than it could/should have been due to Labo bombing and the delays for FE and Yoshi, but it will cross that mark comfortably.
 
PCPace

PCPace

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,841
Alabama
Selling software has not send to be a problem this year. They underestimated it if anything. I think they've been helped by the diving cost of SD cards.
 
Aaronrules380

Aaronrules380

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
22,427
I mean if they're already almost halfway there in just the first half which is always way slower than the 2nd half which includes the holidays, then I don't think there's any chance they don't surpass it by a good margin
 
Oregano

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
First half is 42m with games like Mario Tennis and Octopath Traveler as the big releases.

Second half has Mario Party, Pokémon, Smash Bros and NSMB U and the holiday season.

They will absolutely obliterate it, 120m+ easily. I could even see 150m.
 
Puroresu_kid

Puroresu_kid

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
9,465
This is bigger than the hardware target. There was a strong opinion that Nintendo gamers don't buy games.
 
OP
OP
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Another important figure :

Last year, the end of the year (Oct-December) represented ~40% of the overall software performance.

I am expecting a better ratio this year because of the releases of SMP, Pokemon and Smash (all multimillion sellers vs only SMO last year).

There is a real possibility that they'll reach their software goal in the next financial report, 3 months before the "deadline".
 
Brofield

Brofield

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,896
Oh, easy. Smash, Mario Party and LG!PE are gonna pull weight. Depending on what the next Direct announces for release in Q1 will determine if it will be pushing 105m units at the end (Fire Emblem, Pikmin) or soaring high at 130+m (Animal Crossing/MP4)
 
neon_dream

neon_dream

Member
Dec 18, 2017
3,644
Easily, yes. The only question is on what timeline, with how many revisions/upgrades, and with how many price drops.

2 years into the lifecycle, it is obviously maintaining its popularity. It's even making significant inroads to cultivating Western support, which Nintendo hasn't been able to boast about in a long, long time.

A mid-gen Switch Pro upgrade will spur sells. A late-gen cheap version/big price drop will spur sales again. Overlap/BC with a Switch 2 will put the finishing touches on the goal of 100 million.

Nintendo hasn't even played all their hard hitting software cards. Pokemon is going to sell 10 million units all by itself. So will Mario Kart 9. Animal Crossing will sell units. BotW 2 will sell units. Odyssey 2 will sell units. A new 2D Mario will sell units. So will a bunch of other games. Once Japan finally starts supporting Switch, that'll sell units.
 
Braaier

Braaier

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
13,237
They will exceed it easily. It's funny that Nintendo seemed to have low ball their projection for software whereas they have given themselves a very difficult challenge with the 20m hardware projection. I think they'll meet both btw
 
OP
OP
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
neon_dream said:
Easily, yes. The only question is on what timeline, with how many revisions/upgrades, and with how many price drops.

2 years into the lifecycle, it is obviously maintaining its popularity. It's even making significant inroads to cultivating Western support, which Nintendo hasn't been able to boast about in a long, long time.

A mid-gen Switch Pro upgrade will spur sells. A late-gen cheap version/big price drop will spur sales again. Overlap/BC with a Switch 2 will put the finishing touches on the goal of 100 million.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

The 100m target is for the period from April 18' to March 19'. They won't be any revision in this timeframe.

They are currently at 111m software units sold since its launch.
 
Procheno

Procheno

Alt Account
Banned
Nov 14, 2018
2,879
ZhugeEX said:
I'm an analyst and I think they'll hit it easily.
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source.gif
 
Glio

Glio

Member
Oct 27, 2017
24,497
Spain
neon_dream said:
Easily, yes. The only question is on what timeline, with how many revisions/upgrades, and with how many price drops.

2 years into the lifecycle, it is obviously maintaining its popularity. It's even making significant inroads to cultivating Western support, which Nintendo hasn't been able to boast about in a long, long time.

A mid-gen Switch Pro upgrade will spur sells. A late-gen cheap version/big price drop will spur sales again. Overlap/BC with a Switch 2 will put the finishing touches on the goal of 100 million.

Nintendo hasn't even played all their hard hitting software cards. Pokemon is going to sell 10 million units all by itself. So will Mario Kart 9. Animal Crossing will sell units. BotW 2 will sell units. Odyssey 2 will sell units. A new 2D Mario will sell units. So will a bunch of other games. Once Japan finally starts supporting Switch, that'll sell units.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

We are talking about software this year, not hardware.
 
Amnixia

Amnixia

▲ Legend ▲
The Fallen
Jan 25, 2018
10,411
I think they'll hit the software goal, but still kinda feel like they'll fall just a bit short of their hardware goals if that makes sense.
 
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