Mary Poppins Returns, the sequel to the 1964 musical film that won five Oscars including Best Actress for Julie Andrews, is launching on Wednesday, December 19 to get ahead of Aquaman, which opens that Friday, and industry estimates believe the Disney-branded pic could deliver a first week in the $70 million range (Christmas falls on the following Tuesday after the Rob Marshall movie opens).
Aquaman in its five-day run from Friday to Christmas Tuesday is expected to bring in around $80M, with $65M over the three-day. Before anyone can scream that's lower than Justice League ($111.9M for first five days), many rival distribs expect this $160M production to leg the holiday out. We're hearing that in regards to the paid tickets for the December 15 Amazon Prime preview of the James Wan-directed movie at major cinema circuits, 65%-70% have already been sold.
Also solid is Paramount's Bumblebee, which looks to take $40M in its first Friday-Tuesday. That could be higher if the movie wasn't up against Aquaman; Bumblebee's unaided awareness among all audiences is half that of Aquaman's.