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Rouk'

Member
Jan 10, 2018
8,185
That isn't confirmed.


But not necessarily true. Here's the actual facts we know:

1. Wii 2007 did about 350k in 7 days at BF.
2. Wii 2008 did over double that, about 800k, in the comparable period.
3. Switch 2018 did more than Wii 2008, comparing the 5 days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday.

Combine 1 and 2, and you'll see that Wii 2008 could easily have been under 800k. For example, 335k in 2007 and 770k in 2008 (~2.3x) matches both statements.

Switch at 775k for this year reporting period would then meet statement 3. But in fact it could be even lower, because it's a 5-day period rather than a full week. So if Wii 2008 did 770k in 7 days, maybe it did 625k in the peak 5. So Switch this year could then be, say, 666k and still make all the statements true.

None of that is confirmed either, of course. The point is that Nintendo's previous statements are estimates with very few significant figures, so we can't use them for precise comparisons of any kind.

I feel like this is what is wrong with your calculations. There is no way the peak 5 days only account for 80% of sales in the week, right ? Do we have any number showing us the split between the different days of the Thanksgiving week ?
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
That isn't confirmed.


But not necessarily true. Here's the actual facts we know:

1. Wii 2007 did about 350k in 7 days at BF.
2. Wii 2008 did over double that, about 800k, in the comparable period.
3. Switch 2018 did more than Wii 2008, comparing the 5 days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday.

Combine 1 and 2, and you'll see that Wii 2008 could easily have been under 800k. For example, 335k in 2007 and 770k in 2008 (~2.3x) matches both statements.

Switch at 775k for this year reporting period would then meet statement 3. But in fact it could be even lower, because it's a 5-day period rather than a full week. So if Wii 2008 did 770k in 7 days, maybe it did 625k in the peak 5. So Switch this year could then be, say, 666k and still make all the statements true.

None of that is confirmed either, of course. The point is that Nintendo's previous statements are estimates with very few significant figures, so we can't use them for precise comparisons of any kind.

On the other hand, as we can see from this thread (and a few examples in the past) when Nintendo ballparks a number (like 350k or 800k) they often underestimate the number rather than overestimate it. So it could be possible that instead of 800k it was 830k or 850k.
 

Rouk'

Member
Jan 10, 2018
8,185
On the other hand, as we can see from this thread (and a few examples in the past) when Nintendo ballparks a number (like 350k or 800k) they often underestimate the number rather than overestimate it. So it could be possible that instead of 800k it was 830k or 850k.

But wouldn't they have said "more than 800k" if that was the case ?
 

Rouk'

Member
Jan 10, 2018
8,185
Probably, what was the exact wording?
President Satoru Iwata told Reuters in an interview that Wii sales more than doubled to about 800,000 units during the week of Thanksgiving, from about 350,000 units a year earlier.

Edit: The thing is, it's really hard to calculate anything as there are too many approximations:
-"more than doubled"
-"to about 800,000"
-"from about 350,000"
 
Oct 31, 2017
8,635
2019 will be the biggest year for Switch

- Riding the Smash Ultimate Hype
- Smash Ultimate DLC
- Pokemon Generation 8 will get all Pokemon fans on board
- Animal Crossing Switch will push HARD. Really hard.
- Luigi's Haunted Mansion
- Fire Emblem
- Yoshi
- Metroid Prime 4 // Bayonetta 3, i believe one will come for the "critically acclaimed" hit of the holiday season
- Potential Zelda or Mario

You forgot the Metroid Prime Collection in early 2019 :P
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Edit: The thing is, it's really hard to calculate anything as there are too many approximations:
-"more than doubled"
-"to about 800,000"
-"from about 350,000"

Ah yeah, those are some confusing numbers...

I guess the best we can guess is somewhere within 25k of each of those numbers. If it was 774k or less or 826k or more they probably would've gone with 750k or 850k.

Either way I don't think we can assume the 350 and 800 numbers are caps, it's possible they went slightly over those too.
 

Rouk'

Member
Jan 10, 2018
8,185
That isn't confirmed.


But not necessarily true. Here's the actual facts we know:

1. Wii 2007 did about 350k in 7 days at BF.
2. Wii 2008 did over double that, about 800k, in the comparable period.
3. Switch 2018 did more than Wii 2008, comparing the 5 days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday.

Combine 1 and 2, and you'll see that Wii 2008 could easily have been under 800k. For example, 335k in 2007 and 770k in 2008 (~2.3x) matches both statements.
Also, the thing is, this is unlikely. Or at least, the opposite could be true. Nintendo is known to be conservative in the numbers they give, as we've seen throughout this thread. So, they probably would not give a number higher than reality. Which also would not be a safe thing to do, as investors could be disappointed if what Nintendo announced as "about 800k" was in reality "less than 800k".

The "around 800,000" could simply be interpretated as "very close to 800,000", ever slightly less or slightly more, but nothing meaningful (770k in your example would mean a 30k approximation, that's a lot, if this number was true, I believe they would have said something like "more than 750k" which does not change anything, the three facts you listed would still be true, but it would spin it positively)

Edit:
Ah yeah, those are some confusing numbers...

I guess the best we can guess is somewhere within 25k of each of those numbers. If it was 774k or less or 826k or more they probably would've gone with 750k or 850k.

Either way I don't think we can assume the 350 and 800 numbers are caps, it's possible they went slightly over those too.

Basically, though I don't think the "or 826k or more" part of your post is true, as that would mean they inflated their numbers, which I don't think is a good thing to do
 

joe_zazen

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,490
Not sure if hes being sarcastic or not here but personally I think it's been pretty great

Lots of sales talk and trying to break down figures from PR. Honestly reminds me of the old sales threads when we would get semi vague PR all the time

These group think threads puzzling out a problem are super fun, they make sales era for me.

it is also more fun if you have a horse in the race, but people have to hide it. ;-)
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Basically, though I don't think the "or 826k or more" part of your post is true, as that would mean they inflated their numbers, which I don't think is a good thing to do

I guess "about" means different things to different people. I see that they're willing to announce numbers in 50k increments (with about 350k) and that would make me think they'd be okay rounding up or down to the nearest 50k. In my industry though "about" is often assumed to mean "within 10%" which in this case would be a larger range.

Basically I don't think there's anyway to determine what the number is so the best bet is to take it at face value and assume it was very close to 800k.
 

gozu

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,442
America
Anyone knows how these numbers compare to the Nintendo DS and 3DS ?

Technically the switch is doing double duty for Nintendo as a home AND portable console, which was obviously a stroke of genius on Nintendo's part, so I am not at all surprised it smashing Wii records.

Needless the say, these are delightful news for all switch owners. Things will continue to look good as I expect Metroid prime and Bayo3 in 2019/early 2020 another zelda in late 2020/early 2021 at the latest.
 

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
Anyone knows how these numbers compare to the Nintendo DS and 3DS ?

Technically the switch is doing double duty for Nintendo as a home AND portable console, which was obviously a stroke of genius on Nintendo's part, so I am not at all surprised it smashing Wii records.

Needless the say, these are delightful news for all switch owners. Things will continue to look good as I expect Metroid prime and Bayo3 in 2019/early 2020 another zelda in late 2020/early 2021 at the latest.
It's definitely ahead of 3DS, DS might be less clear (and I am sure Benji or ZhugeEX may have more insight).
 

Rouk'

Member
Jan 10, 2018
8,185
Anyone knows how these numbers compare to the Nintendo DS and 3DS ?

Technically the switch is doing double duty for Nintendo as a home AND portable console, which was obviously a stroke of genius on Nintendo's part, so I am not at all surprised it smashing Wii records.

Needless the say, these are delightful news for all switch owners. Things will continue to look good as I expect Metroid prime and Bayo3 in 2019/early 2020 another zelda in late 2020/early 2021 at the latest.
I mean, those games are awesome, but they are clearly not system-sellers. And even Zelda is not the best exemple.
In 2019, the big confirmed system-sellers are NSMBUDX, Animal Crossing and Pokémon.
 

Unkindled

Member
Nov 27, 2018
3,247
Amazing result for Nintendo 20 million seems like a lock now. I wonder how close switch will be to ps4 in sales this month.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Anyone knows how these numbers compare to the Nintendo DS and 3DS ?

Technically the switch is doing double duty for Nintendo as a home AND portable console, which was obviously a stroke of genius on Nintendo's part, so I am not at all surprised it smashing Wii records.

Needless the say, these are delightful news for all switch owners. Things will continue to look good as I expect Metroid prime and Bayo3 in 2019/early 2020 another zelda in late 2020/early 2021 at the latest.
Don't know about the US specifically, but worldwide DS did 35.61 million by the end of 2006, which would align with Switch's March 31st 2019. DS went beast mode shortly after that, though, so that one will gallop off towards the horizon in the aligned years to come.

3ds would be at 31.1M by the launch aligned date of March 31st 2019 for Switch.
 

Jaime.GGG

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,008
So I've been looking at least year's IR results and "the Americas" seems to consistently account for ~39% of global Switch shipments, both in Q2 and Q3 of last year. Would it be fair to estimate that 30 of that 39% is from the US only?

If so, then if we're guessing 1.3M-1.4M for November and 2-2.5M for December, on top of the ~255k from October then we wind up with ~3.55 ~ 4.15M for Q3 sell-through.

I'm not sure how shipments will relate but let's add 10% for shipments. So ~3.9 to ~4.5M for shipments in Q3 for the US. Using the 30% of global sales assumption above that gets us 13-15M units shipped.

Even if we remove shipments from the equation we still get 11.8-13.8M.

So if our lowest assumption is 11.8M then we need 3.2M shipments in Q4 to reach 20M. They did 2.92M last Q4 with only Bayo 1 + 2 and Kirby, this year they will easily pass 3.2M.

------------

Basically, if this math is accurate even a little bit (I concede that it very well may not be) then their 20M goal is a lot easier than I thought with a 1.3-1.4M November in the US.


EDIT: If we give the US a more conservative 35% rather than 30% we wind up with ~11M to 13M for shipments. Still doable.



They're only talking about the 5 day period from Thanksgiving until Cyber Monday, not the entire holiday season. But yes, this has surpassed that same period each year for the Wii.

Its Happening!
But Japan needs to catch up. Using the 1.3m Nov and 2m Dec USA prediction, Japan would need to sell 890K Nov (it has sold 405K) and 1.37m Dec to keep the 24% current Switch shipment share.
 

senj

Member
Nov 6, 2017
4,528
Weren't analysts saying "the Switch story is exhausted", like, yesterday?

Analysts. What a job.
 

KingK

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,879
Are you KingK? I mean, from the YouTube channel KingK? If so, just wanna say that I love your critiques, specially the Prime 2: Echoes one (and your Bloodborne retrospective).

Incredible job.

If you're not, then my bad.
Haha, no unfortunately not. I've been using this name as my internet handle since like 06/07 though :P
 

finalflame

Product Management
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,538
Base model price drop + $300 Pro model + Animal Crossing 2019. LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
 

Mokujin

Member
Oct 31, 2017
451
Crazy thing is that the price is still very high, once it gets down and another cheaper model, boy oh boy...
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Its Happening!
But Japan needs to catch up. Using the 1.3m Nov and 2m Dec USA prediction, Japan would need to sell 890K Nov (it has sold 405K) and 1.37m Dec to keep the 24% current Switch shipment share.

Yeah Japan is likely gonna lag behind their usual 24-25% share unless December really over performs. Luckily it looks like the US might overperform a bit.
 
Nov 2, 2017
385
This thread was fun. One of my favorites since ERA. One just need a bad number and era will prove you wrong.
And Benji your numbers and "predictions" are one of the reasons a lot of us follow sales threads. don't doubt in yourself, doubt in Nintendo.
 

MegaMix

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
786
I always have to remind myself that Nintendo is significantly more popular in North America than in Japan.
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
I always have to remind myself that Nintendo is significantly more popular in North America than in Japan.


Yes and no. In overall numbers, of course- but that's a function of the market being bigger and also not nearly as impacted by mobile. In terms of actual market share, Japan is probably Nintendo's top market. Its just a smaller market.
 

MegaMix

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
786
Yes and no. In overall numbers, of course- but that's a function of the market being bigger and also not nearly as impacted by mobile. In terms of actual market share, Japan is probably Nintendo's top market. Its just a smaller market.
Not really. Even adjusting by popilation, Nintendo systems sell more in North America sans the DSes and SNES.
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
Not really. Even adjusting by popilation, Nintendo systems sell more in North America sans the DSes and SNES.


I don't think you're fully understanding my point- Japan's dedicated gaming market has severely contracted so yes, in absolute numbers Nintendo's share of the pie from Japan is smaller- but the pie that is there is dominated by Nintendo, in contrast to other markets where PS4 is in a much better position.
 
Feb 10, 2018
17,534
With the switches great success I hope they release this.

nintendo-switch-clamshell-2-e1521558177423.png


With a 5.5inch screen and a small bezel.
 

Deleted member 32018

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 8, 2017
7,628
Not really. Even adjusting by popilation, Nintendo systems sell more in North America sans the DSes and SNES.

Just a reminder the population of Japan is around 126 million and the population of the US is around 325 million. Wii U has sold over 3 million in Japan. For it to do more in NA, adjusted by population it would have had to sell around 8 million when instead it sold a little over 6 million and that was for the whole of the Americas.

Edit: If anything all the data shows is that in recent years Japan does not like home consoles as much as the US (something we already knew) and is nothing to do with Nintendo not being as popular.
 
Last edited:

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,911
AFAIK the 20 million goal is sell in not sell through. They could get a big bump in Q4 from retailers stocking for Animal Crossing and possibly Fire Emblem, particularly in Japan. I think they might pull it off.
Retailers already had Stock in the channels going into this fiscal year. So basically 20 million shipped means 20 million sold at this point. Retailers are not going to stuff another million in shipping channels
 

gozu

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,442
America
I mean, those games are awesome, but they are clearly not system-sellers. And even Zelda is not the best exemple.
In 2019, the big confirmed system-sellers are NSMBUDX, Animal Crossing and Pokémon.

NSMB is getting a switch release too?? They really are releasing every single WiiU game for the switch, aren't they? As a WiiU owner, I can't say I'm thrilled about it, but everybody who skipped it must be feeling pretty happy with themselves ;)

Don't know about the US specifically, but worldwide DS did 35.61 million by the end of 2006, which would align with Switch's March 31st 2019. DS went beast mode shortly after that, though, so that one will gallop off towards the horizon in the aligned years to come.

3ds would be at 31.1M by the launch aligned date of March 31st 2019 for Switch.

Thanks for the numbers. So if I understand correctly, the switch is tracking to sell around the same numbers as the 3DS?

Obviously, the DS was a crazy beast, and benefitted from Japan still buying consoles at that point. Nintendo will never match those numbers again. Not when everybody has a smartphone.

With the switches great success I hope they release this.

nintendo-switch-clamshell-2-e1521558177423.png


With a 5.5inch screen and a small bezel.

I firmly believe that the JoyCon is the best motherf***ing controller in history. By far, and the best thing about the Nintendo Switch. Nintendo should be really, really proud of it.

Do you really think there is a chance Nintendo would release a console version without their best feature?

3DS was different because 3D was a stupid gimmick that strains the eyes and makes things unnecessarily fuzzy if you move your head a millimeter to the side. One could say it was the console's worst feature.
 
Last edited:

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,042
Pokemon and Smash launching so late i expect it will lift Q4 Jan-Mar sales compared to 2018