PR: Switch surpasses Wii in best-selling Nintendo console in US on BF+CM. +115% HW over 2017

Calamari41 · Nov 28, 2018

banter said:
I don't know if I'm just reading into this wrong or something but it sounds kind of like you're saying 3.8 million isn't "over 3 million" when it is in fact 800,000 over 3 million.

Right, my point is that Nintendo has a history of underselling their numbers. The confusion in this thread is based on the idea that 8.2 million Switches sold is way too low and doesn't match up with the numbers that we know or have estimated for LTD sales and Black Friday sales. I was responding to someone who said that it didn't makes sense that they would report 8.2 million if the real number was higher.

Nintendo said "more than 8.2 million," just like they said "more than 3 million." There would be no confusion in this thread if we knew that "more than 8.2 million" meant literally something like 8.5 or 8.6 million. My point in posting what I did was to say that, yes, for all we know that does mean something like 8.6 million.

Skittzo · Nov 28, 2018

pld said:
I wish they didn't release the PR because now we are more confused with data than before without data lol.

Nah I think it tells us pretty plainly that they sold around 800k (or more) during the Black Friday period. Considering that's only 5 days of the month and they sold 775k in November last year (not counting Cyber Monday though) we're looking at an extremely high YOY increase.

Zedark · Nov 28, 2018

Ex-Actarus said:
The Thanksgiving record was at 299$...

With a MK8D copy (or code, to be exact) bundled in, to be fair. That SKU should have done significant numbers.

Calamari41 · Nov 28, 2018

pld said:
I wish they didn't release the PR because now we are more confused with data than before without data lol.

skittzo0413 said:
Nah I think it tells us pretty plainly that they sold around 800k (or more) during the Black Friday period. Considering that's only 5 days of the month and they sold 775k in November last year (not counting Cyber Monday though) we're looking at an extremely high YOY increase.

Yeah, the info is very good. What we would be better off without is the 8.2 million figure that they threw in like a monkey wrench.

Herb Alpert · Nov 28, 2018

Why would a company downplay its very own numbers ? Honest question

Gotdatmoney · Nov 28, 2018

skittzo0413 said:
I recommend weaseling.

And a burrito.

I had a burrito for lunch today. Can confirm, good choice.

Skittzo · Nov 28, 2018

Calamari41 said:
Yeah, the info is very good. What we would be better off without is the 8.2 million figure that they threw in like a monkey wrench.

Yeah that number was the only real source of confusion.

banter · Nov 28, 2018

Calamari41 said:
Right, my point is that Nintendo has a history of underselling their numbers. The confusion in this thread is based on the idea that 8.2 million Switches sold is way too low and doesn't match up with the numbers that we know or have estimated for LTD sales and Black Friday sales. I was responding to someone who said that it didn't makes sense that they would report 8.2 million if the real number was higher.

Nintendo said "more than 8.2 million," just like they said "more than 3 million." There would be no confusion in this thread if we knew that "more than 8.2 million" meant literally something like 8.5 or 8.6 million. My point in posting what I did was to say that, yes, for all we know that does mean something like 8.6 million.

Oh, I gotcha. Definitely read it wrong.

klanar · Nov 28, 2018

Herb Alpert said:
Why would a company downplay its very own numbers ? Honest question

I.... don't know. Possibly because of better PR when official numbers come out?

Zedark · Nov 28, 2018

skittzo0413 said:
Nah I think it tells us pretty plainly that they sold around 800k (or more) during the Black Friday period. Considering that's only 5 days of the month and they sold 775k in November last year (not counting Cyber Monday though) we're looking at an extremely high YOY increase.

Yeah, 800k for 5 days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday is very impressive, and considering that Pokémon launched in the weeks leading up to it, odds are that the sales were up significantly in the weeks leading up to the BF period as well, making a 1.4-1.5 million-ish prediction possible, and that's just a great performance for Switch in November.

Calamari41 · Nov 28, 2018

Herb Alpert said:
Why would a company downplay its very own numbers ? Honest question

My guess: it is way more damaging to overestimate your sales than to underestimate them. So when Nintendo releases early figures like this, it is possible that they have a policy to only report the absolute most conservative estimate possible. Maybe they're absolutely certain of the LTD through October, and they're absolutely certain of the Black Friday totals, so they just added those absolute certain numbers together and said "more than this."

Saying you sold 3 million when it ends up being 3.8 million is a positive surprise. Saying you sold 3.8 million when you sold anything less is a big hit.

Orion · Nov 28, 2018

You can count me as one of those customers. I wasn't even planning on getting one until next year but then Eevee's cuteness obliterated my willpower and suddenly my PokéSwitch is on its way.

byDoS · Nov 28, 2018

KingK said:
I know I plan on getting one next month. Was planning on picking it up on black Friday, but unexpected expenses caused me to put that on hold.

Are you KingK? I mean, from the YouTube channel KingK? If so, just wanna say that I love your critiques, specially the Prime 2: Echoes one (and your Bloodborne retrospective).

Incredible job.

If you're not, then my bad.

Zedark · Nov 28, 2018

Herb Alpert said:
Why would a company downplay its very own numbers ? Honest question

One possibility is that they recognise that what they have achieved at BF was impressive enough for a separate statement, and might be planning on issuing another statement when the November numbers are out detailing that they might have had one of the biggest Novembers in company history. This way they could have two major PR communications, which might help in promoting stock growth (and puts the company in a positive light twice, more generally speaking).

klanar · Nov 28, 2018

Calamari41 said:
My guess: it is way more damaging to overestimate your sales than to underestimate them. So when Nintendo releases early figures like this, it is possible that they have a policy to only report the absolute most conservative estimate possible.

Saying you sold 3 million when it ends up being 3.8 million is a positive surprise. Saying you sold 3.8 million when you sold anything less is a big hit.

They are doing that again for this npd, I can't wait for public release nov npd.

Deleted member 2785 · Nov 28, 2018

Underpromise and overdeliver. Corporate life 101.

schuelma · Nov 28, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
Underpromise and overdeliver. Corporate life 101.

.... except for their fiscal year hardware estimate!

Benji · Nov 28, 2018

Herb Alpert said:
Why would a company downplay its very own numbers ? Honest question

It's common to low ball a bit to make sure your safe. It's illegal for a companies to give out false reporting metrics as it can influence share and stock price.

That said Nintendo has been very weird in his they report things in the past. More so than many other companies

kaputt · Nov 28, 2018

Damn. I was doubting Nintendo could reach their goal, considering the Wii numbers, but then they just blow them out of the water. Incredible.

(hopefully I'll add another unit sold to their numbers, when I'll go to the US for vacation and some casual shopping)

MasterChumly · Nov 28, 2018

skittzo0413 said:
Sell through was down ~12% for October (because they had a major launch last year but not this year) but that won't really make a difference for Q3 sales if November/December are up ~75-100% YOY.

Also sell through is up in Japan as of now, albeit by a very small amount. Not down like you claim.

And yeah, it will need a Wii like Christmas but it just had a better-than-Wii Black Friday.

In the culmative fiscal year over year the switch is down in Japan. Same with the US it's slightly down. For the switch to hit its goals it needs to average 30+% year over year. Since it's going into November/December flat or slightly down it needs to have some massive increases like you noted. There is definitely a huge chance still that Nintendo can't hit those numbers. November looks good and may be 100% but it's not going to be easy for December to double sales in the US. Especially if Japan continues to be flat.

Deleted member 36578 · Nov 28, 2018

Four more of my friends ended up getting one recently so I guess they're part of this massive sales bump. Really impressive holiday season for Nintendo .

schuelma · Nov 28, 2018

MasterChumly said:
In the culmative fiscal year over year the switch is down in Japan. Same with the US it's slightly down. For the switch to hit its goals it needs to average 30+% year over year. Since it's going into November/December flat or slightly down it needs to have some massive increases like you noted. There is definitely a huge chance still that Nintendo can't hit those numbers. November looks good and may be 100% but it's not going to be easy for December to double sales in the US. Especially if Japan continues to be flat.

Japan won't be flat in December

Deleted member 36578 · Nov 28, 2018

Double post

Either way, gj Nintendo

BassForever · Nov 28, 2018

Herb Alpert said:
Why would a company downplay its very own numbers ? Honest question

You always downplay revenue and round up expenses it's financial projection 101. If your boss told you your next pay check will have a bonus, would you rather they say it'll probably be$1000 and it ends up being $800? Or have then say it'll probably be $500 and it ends up being $800? The final number is the same but your perception will change depending upon what was projected ahead of time.

Skittzo · Nov 28, 2018

MasterChumly said:
In the culmative fiscal year over year the switch is down in Japan. Same with the US it's slightly down. For the switch to hit its goals it needs to average 30+% year over year. Since it's going into November/December flat or slightly down it needs to have some massive increases like you noted. There is definitely a huge chance still that Nintendo can't hit those numbers. November looks good and may be 100% but it's not going to be easy for December to double sales in the US. Especially if Japan continues to be flat.

Ah you were talking FY, sorry. I was looking at the CY sales for Japan.

And yeah it's certainly going to be tough, but there's no way Japan will be flat. Remember, it had shortages last year, including in December. Now it will not have shortages as well as one of the most anticipated game launches we've seen in years. I don't know if Japan will be up 100% (I really doubt it will be) but it will be up a good amount.

The US will also be up from December last year but yeah, not sure how much. The US also faced some shortages towards the end of December last year, and the Smash launch will be a significant bump to the typical December numbers. They also will have better deals. I could see the 35$ eshop credit deal going again through much of December.

So yeah while it's certainly tough I think they have a decent shot at it.

Pancakes R Us · Nov 28, 2018

I wonder if Nintendo would break even on Switch at $200. From my POV, the sooner they can get the price down, the better, at least next year. Especially if they want lifetime sales to hit around the GBA mark. Appreciate that we're in a different age of portable gaming, but it doesn't hurt to set your goals high.

Ryng™ · Nov 28, 2018

Those looks like insane numbers.

Man can't wait to see November NPD.

Ryng™ · Nov 28, 2018

Benji said:
It's common to low ball a bit to make sure your safe. It's illegal for a companies to give out false reporting metrics as it can influence share and stock price.

That said Nintendo has been very weird in his they report things in the past. More so than many other companies

100% this, a lot of times they report numbers way lower than what they actually are, And i don't get the reason.......

MasterChumly · Nov 28, 2018

skittzo0413 said:
Ah you were talking FY, sorry. I was looking at the CY sales for Japan.

And yeah it's certainly going to be tough, but there's no way Japan will be flat. Remember, it had shortages last year, including in December. Now it will not have shortages as well as one of the most anticipated game launches we've seen in years. I don't know if Japan will be up 100% (I really doubt it will be) but it will be up a good amount.

The US will also be up from December last year but yeah, not sure how much. The US also faced some shortages towards the end of December last year, and the Smash launch will be a significant bump to the typical December numbers. They also will have better deals. I could see the 35$ eshop credit deal going again through much of December.

So yeah while it's certainly tough I think they have a decent shot at it.

I think it's going to be important for Nintendo to continue to add pot sweeteners to their deals. Bring more stock of the mario kart bundle. Continue the eshop promotion. Have GameStop do the 50 gift card promotion etc. If they continue to be more aggressive with that during December I think that will put them in the best position.

Long story short I just think there's still a good chance they will miss the goal which is what I was originally replying to but it doesn't mean they cant still hit it. I highly disagree with some thinking it's a slam dunk now though

carlosrox · Nov 28, 2018

brokeastronaut said:
Four more of my friends ended up getting one recently so I guess they're part of this massive sales bump. Really impressive holiday season for Nintendo .

Wow. So only 2 minutes after that post you had 4 more friends buy Switches?

The thirst is real!!

Skittzo · Nov 28, 2018

MasterChumly said:
I think it's going to be important for Nintendo to continue to add pot sweeteners to their deals. Bring more stock of the mario kart bundle. Continue the eshop promotion. Have GameStop do the 50 gift card promotion etc. If they continue to be more aggressive with that during December I think that will put them in the best position.

Long story short I just think there's still a good chance they will miss the goal which is what I was originally replying to but it doesn't mean they cant still hit it. I highly disagree with some thinking it's a slam dunk now though

Yeah I agree with that. In my mind it's probably like 55-45 in favor of them hitting it. Maybe 60-40 if I'm feeling especially bold. But it's certainly not a slam dunk.

Deleted member 36578 · Nov 28, 2018

carlosrox said:
Wow. So only 2 minutes after that post you had 4 more friends buy Switches?

The thirst is real!!

I was very confused for a moment. Lol oops

NicknameMy · Nov 28, 2018

skittzo0413 said:
Yeah I agree with that. In my mind it's probably like 55-45 in favor of them hitting it. Maybe 60-40 if I'm feeling especially bold. But it's certainly not a slam dunk.

The thing that makes me confident in that they will rather comfortably reach that goal is that last year we had the exact same discussion about Nintendo not reaching their goal of 15 million units (like 4 million after Q1 and Q2) and in the end Q3 and Q4 happened and Nintendo slammed that mark hard. History repeats itself it seems.

Lelouch0612 · Nov 28, 2018

skittzo0413 said:
Yeah I agree with that. In my mind it's probably like 55-45 in favor of them hitting it. Maybe 60-40 if I'm feeling especially bold. But it's certainly not a slam dunk.

My guess is that the gap will expand further with Smash's launch. It is going to be enormous in the US and Japan and very big in Europe.

Skittzo · Nov 28, 2018

NicknameMy said:
The thing that makes me confident in that they will rather comfortably reach that goal is that last year we had the exact same discussion about Nintendo not reaching their goal of 15 million units (like 4 million after Q1 and Q2) and in the end Q3 and Q4 happened and Nintendo slammed that mark hard. History repeats itself it seems.

The difference is last year they only needed ~7.5M for Q3 to hit their goal. 7.5M was looking tough with their supply issues but they managed it.

This year they need ~11-12M in Q3 to hit their goal, which is basically on the higher end of what has ever been done in this quarter. I think the record for Q3 was either the Wii or DS with about 12M. So they essentially need to either set new records or match the previous ones, which is a lot bigger of an ask than just scrounging up enough supply like they had to do last year.

Lelouch0612 said:
My guess is that the gap will expand further with Smash's launch. It is going to be enormous in the US and Japan and very big in Europe.

Very possible, yeah.

8byte · Nov 28, 2018

Got one for my nieces on Cyber Monday, and I *almost* got one for myself. I'm holding out for a possible hardware revision next year.

Aleh · Nov 28, 2018

Pancakes R Us said:
I wonder if Nintendo would break even on Switch at $200. From my POV, the sooner they can get the price down, the better, at least next year. Especially if they want lifetime sales to hit around the GBA mark. Appreciate that we're in a different age of portable gaming, but it doesn't hurt to set your goals high.

They'll easily go past the GBA lifetime sales even without dropping $100 off the price for no reason while the console still sells like hot cakes

srtrestre · Nov 28, 2018

Revision next year + price drop for the OG hardware + bundles

Next year could be NUCLEAR

MasterChumly · Nov 28, 2018

schuelma said:
Japan won't be flat in December

Agreed but it's going to need to be up like 100% yoy starting the week of smash going through the end of the year. That's not going to be easy

Oregano · Nov 28, 2018

skittzo0413 said:
The difference is last year they only needed ~7.5M for Q3 to hit their goal. 7.5M was looking tough with their supply issues but they managed it.

This year they need ~11-12M in Q3 to hit their goal, which is basically on the higher end of what has ever been done in this quarter. I think the record for Q3 was either the Wii or DS with about 12M. So they essentially need to either set new records or match the previous ones, which is a lot bigger of an ask than just scrounging up enough supply like they had to do last year.

Very possible, yeah.

I think it depends on the effect NSMB and whatever their other Q4 releases end up being. 4m hardware units is likely but I could see that going higher.

schuelma · Nov 28, 2018

MasterChumly said:
Agreed but it's going to need to be up like 100% yoy starting the week of smash going through the end of the year. That's not going to be easy

Agreed it isn't going to double December sales, but if NA and PAL sales are strong enough it shouldn't be a deal breaker for the forecast.

Jade1962 · Nov 28, 2018

Calamari41 said:
You're right, but you have to remember that we're talking about the company that reported selling "over 3 million" Wii consoles one December and then the NPD reported 3.8 million.

How many times has this actually happened though? Especially in the last 5 years. I've only ever seen this one example cited.

Skittzo · Nov 28, 2018

Oregano said:
I think it depends on the effect NSMB and whatever their other Q4 releases end up being. 4m hardware units is likely but I could see that going higher.

Yeah Q4 is another big question mark. NSMBUDX will put in work as will Smash, since it launches at the tail end of Q3, but beyond that we know literally nothing. Yoshi or FE might launch, or maybe not. Maybe we'll get a Prime Trilogy announcement for February a la Bayo 1+2 last year, or maybe it'll be later. The thing is, none of those are real hardware drivers. They'll help, but they won't make a huge difference.

Unless they do have another big gun (which is very possible) I don't see Q4 going too far about 4M. Maybe if they channel stuff a bit towards the end it can get to like 4.3 or so but not much higher than that.

Lelouch0612 · Nov 28, 2018

Jade1962 said:
How many times has this actually happened though? Especially in the last 5 years. I've only ever seen this one example cited.

April 2017 too :

PR number : 114k
NPD numbers : 280k (+146%)

Jpop · Nov 28, 2018

Herb Alpert said:
Why would a company downplay its very own numbers ? Honest question

Because their internal tracking models probably have a smaller dataset they work with and err on the side of conservative.

Calamari41 · Nov 28, 2018

Jade1962 said:
How many times has this actually happened though? Especially in the last 5 years. I've only ever seen this one example cited.

I'm not sure, but to single out the last five years is a bit unfair considering a large chunk of that time period consisted of basically the most bleak era of Nintendo's history in the videogame market, and also covers a time when NPD no longer released exact numbers like that.

Someone would have to go back and compare press releases to real world results, but it was mentioned in this thread that this same thing happened in the month of Mario Kart 8 DX's release, where the press release indicated Switch sales at less than half of what they ended up being for the month.

Jade1962 · Nov 28, 2018

Lelouch0612 said:
April 2017 too :

PR number : 114k
NPD numbers : 280k (+146%)

Thanks. Near launch. Do you have a link to the PR?

I think switch will break a million in November especially with cyber Monday. I don't think Nintendo is underestimating their sales by over a half a million units though.

Calamari41 · Nov 28, 2018

Jade1962 said:
Thanks. Near launch. Do you have a link to the PR?

I think switch will break a million in November especially with cyber Monday. I don't think Nintendo is underestimating their sales by over a half a million units though.

If they're saying that they've sold more than 8.2 million, and that doesn't include the weeks leading up to Black Friday, it's entirely possible that the real number is 8.4-8.5 million right now with those weeks included, with the rest of this week to add to it before the end. I'd say its very possible that the amount that the 8.2 undershoots the "real" November total will be anywhere from 300-500k, more likely around the 400 range than either of those extremes.

Serenitynow · Nov 28, 2018

AETOS said:
Well that's good news :) This article from Bloomberg seemed all doom and gloom for Nintendo. Then again it's Pachter so what do you expect. ;)

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/nintend...s-killer-product-for-new-gaming-era-1.1174252

What the hell is this article?

"'The stock is heading back to the level when the Switch was announced, which doesn't say great things about its long-term prospects,' Ash said." *ignores the fact that the entire market is down significantly

"'I don't see sales growing unless the price is reduced to below US$200,' Pachter said, indicating a 33 per cent cut from the Switch's current price."

Lmao okay Pachter, let's just jump to the conclusion that the Switch will underperform this holiday, ignore the strong currently announced 2019 lineup, skip right past $249 and just drop the Switch to $199.

"'The Switch excitement has rapidly declined,' Ash said. 'Unless there's significant change or something else new, the Switch story has been exhausted.'"

Pack it up folks. The Switch story is exhausted. ... Do people actually make investment decisions based on these analysts?

DeuceGamer · Nov 28, 2018

Oregano said:
I think it depends on the effect NSMB and whatever their other Q4 releases end up being. 4m hardware units is likely but I could see that going higher.

Especially with Smash releasing so late in Q3. There will still be significant momentum/demand from Smash going into Q4. That will make the Q4 release schedule even more effective.

PR: Switch surpasses Wii in best-selling Nintendo console in US on BF+CM. +115% HW over 2017

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