Wait
If that's accurate the 800-900k estimate is impossible
Quite literally impossible. Switch would have had to sell virtually nothing the entire month
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PR: Switch surpasses Wii in best-selling Nintendo console in US on BF+CM. +115% HW over 2017
- Thread starter Deleted member 2791
- Start date
Wait
If that's accurate the 800-900k estimate is impossible
Quite literally impossible. Switch would have had to sell virtually nothing the entire month
That sounds like 800k for the week to me and not for November up until that point.
Right, which is why it makes sense that rather than selling zero for the rest of the month, Nintendo is just adding that 800-900k to the previous LTD figures as of the end of October. The fact that those numbers added together hits their 8.2 million figure right on the nose leads me to believe strongly that this is what happened.
The 800-900k has to be accurate, because Iwata himself confirmed the 800k number for the 2008 Black Friday week, and this press release confirms that "It became the best-selling Nintendo console in U.S. history for that five-day period, surpassing even Wii system sales" which undoubtedly includes the 2008 numbers.
That's what we've been saying in an attempt to get you to trust your data!! There is no possible way that 8.2M is correct.
If we go with 500k, then last year's BF was about 230k, so that the rest of November 2017 did over 500k. It'd be hard to imagine that this November would do less than last year, so it should be over 1M at least by that metric.
And then there's the quote that LordKano found, making this whole scenario not applicable.
Iwata's number is for 7 days of sales vs the 5 days here if that makes any difference.
OP
OP
What bothers me a little is that the period reported in Nintendo's new PR doesn't seem to be the week of Black Friday, like what's reported for the Wii number, but the five day period from thursday to monday including Cyber Monday.
But it shouldn't change much the overall picture: the 800-900k estimate is indeed virtually impossible.
Ok yeah that settle it definitively. I know for a fact Switch moved more hardware than that outside of BF week. Like straight up have the data saying it did
So if BF week itself is over 800k then Switch is over 1 million for the month by a decent margin after Cyber Monday
This is making more sense. That 8.2 million LTD though doesnt add up at all
So if BF week itself is over 800k then Switch is over 1 million for the month by a decent margin after Cyber Monday
This is making more sense. That 8.2 million LTD though doesnt add up at all
So why they didn't add the rest of the month? Don't tell me they don't have numbers because they wouldn't have BF ones too.
I have no idea what going on with that LTD number but I can tell you flat out right now with zero doubt that Switch sold more than 200k units prior to BF.
So it being under 1 million as of CM is impossible
It's hard to tell. It's possible that whoever wrote the report only had the October LTD number and the Black Friday number, and then said "more than" in order to cover whatever else sold leading up to BF. Or maybe they went the extra mile to get as exact numbers as possible for Black Friday as quickly as possible through different channels so that they could release the figures immediately, and then plan to release the total month's sales through their normal methods when all of that data comes in.
Just the fact that the numbers add up exactly to the 8.2M when you add what we know to be the Black Friday numbers to what we have estimated the October LTD to be is striking to me.
I'm not doubting your numbers, there is just really no reasonable explanation when reporting LTD figures to not include everything sold so far, but it's Nintendo so maybe everything is possible.
OP
OP
So now that the likeliest theory is that the reported number is just October data + BF + CM date, we can figure out:
4.8 millions for Switch last year + estimated of 2.505 millions for the January - October period according to NPD = 7.305 millions Switch from launch to late october.
8.2 millions - 7.305 = 895k for the thursday before Black Friday to Cyber Monday period.
Meaning Switch may have sold close to 900k in a single week in November. Feeling confident that it's hitting 1.4-1.5M for the whole month.
Also means that since Benji's data suggest PS4 was above that, it could have sold more than 1M only in the black friday week.
4.8 millions for Switch last year + estimated of 2.505 millions for the January - October period according to NPD = 7.305 millions Switch from launch to late october.
8.2 millions - 7.305 = 895k for the thursday before Black Friday to Cyber Monday period.
Meaning Switch may have sold close to 900k in a single week in November. Feeling confident that it's hitting 1.4-1.5M for the whole month.
Also means that since Benji's data suggest PS4 was above that, it could have sold more than 1M only in the black friday week.
Taking another angle on things:
Wii 2006: 476,000 (Launch) --> Wii NPD November : 476k (launch)
Wii 2007: 350,000 / 36% --> Wii NPD November : 981k
Wii 2008: 800,000 / 39% --> Wii NPD November : 2,04m
Wii 2009: 550,000 / 44% --> Wii NPD November : 1,26m
Wii 2010: 600,000 / 47% --> Wii NPD November : 1,27m
Wii 2011: +500,000 / +58% (500K just on Black Friday, whole week unknown) --> Wii NPD November : 860k
Wii 2012: 300,000 / 71% --> Wii NPD November : 420k
We see the BF week share of total November sales. Now, I think its reasonable to say that these 5 days (thanksgiving to cyber monday) will have an even bigger share compared to these weeks above (which are sunday before BF to the saturday following).
If we give Switch last year a 36% share over these 5 days, which I'd consider to be a minimal estimate as it was Wii's lowest BF week share and due to the above, this leads to Switch doing 595k over those 5 days this year. If we take the average of Wii's share (49%) that leads to 811k for Switch in those 5 days. If we take Wii's highest, 71%, then its 1175k for Switch in those 5 days, which is almost definitely too high, but its a nice upper bound.
Now I'd consider those early, lower percentages to be less representative. Since, as we remember from back then, the Wii was very supply constrained and they sold whatever they shipped as soon as it landed on the shelves. Switch last year wasn't supply constrained, but it also didn't get any major deals over these 5 days to boost sales much. However, its when most people do their shopping, as we know. Additionally, these 5 days seem to be getting more and more important in terms of total sales every year.
Let's consider Switch did do the very low estimate of 595k over those 5 days. That leaves about 250k, if the 8.2M is correct, for the first two and a half weeks of November, with the momentum off of the Smash bundle launching and of course a fairly big Pokemon launch. That already seems like a stretch, yet this is the extremely unlikely absolute maximum sold in those first two weeks if 8.2M is true.
Pretty much all logical thinking I can apply leads me to believe that 8.2M is just way off, and that 800-900k is the figure for those 5 days.
Wii 2006: 476,000 (Launch) --> Wii NPD November : 476k (launch)
Wii 2007: 350,000 / 36% --> Wii NPD November : 981k
Wii 2008: 800,000 / 39% --> Wii NPD November : 2,04m
Wii 2009: 550,000 / 44% --> Wii NPD November : 1,26m
Wii 2010: 600,000 / 47% --> Wii NPD November : 1,27m
Wii 2011: +500,000 / +58% (500K just on Black Friday, whole week unknown) --> Wii NPD November : 860k
Wii 2012: 300,000 / 71% --> Wii NPD November : 420k
We see the BF week share of total November sales. Now, I think its reasonable to say that these 5 days (thanksgiving to cyber monday) will have an even bigger share compared to these weeks above (which are sunday before BF to the saturday following).
If we give Switch last year a 36% share over these 5 days, which I'd consider to be a minimal estimate as it was Wii's lowest BF week share and due to the above, this leads to Switch doing 595k over those 5 days this year. If we take the average of Wii's share (49%) that leads to 811k for Switch in those 5 days. If we take Wii's highest, 71%, then its 1175k for Switch in those 5 days, which is almost definitely too high, but its a nice upper bound.
Now I'd consider those early, lower percentages to be less representative. Since, as we remember from back then, the Wii was very supply constrained and they sold whatever they shipped as soon as it landed on the shelves. Switch last year wasn't supply constrained, but it also didn't get any major deals over these 5 days to boost sales much. However, its when most people do their shopping, as we know. Additionally, these 5 days seem to be getting more and more important in terms of total sales every year.
Let's consider Switch did do the very low estimate of 595k over those 5 days. That leaves about 250k, if the 8.2M is correct, for the first two and a half weeks of November, with the momentum off of the Smash bundle launching and of course a fairly big Pokemon launch. That already seems like a stretch, yet this is the extremely unlikely absolute maximum sold in those first two weeks if 8.2M is true.
Pretty much all logical thinking I can apply leads me to believe that 8.2M is just way off, and that 800-900k is the figure for those 5 days.
Gotta factor in the 1 million units that were returned when people realised they couldn't play Spider-Man on it ofc ;)
But for reals. Nintendo PR always sucks because their numbers are always out of line with the reality.
Wait for NPD.
I'm really surprised the 3ds family is only at 22 mil. I thought much more than that.
Edit oh is this only in the US?
Edit oh is this only in the US?
In addition, if BF this year was 595k, then last year's BF period was less than 300k. Leaving over 450k for the rest of the month. That means that last year Switch would have sold more than twice as kuch as Switch did this year in November outside BF. That's just not reasonable, and even then BF should be over 800k going by Iwata's statement on Wii 2008.
Yeah I hadn't realized that Wii did a confirmed over 800k BF week alone. With that knowledge its 100% certain that Nintendo did something really weird when coming up with that LTD number.
Again, the problem with comparing this 5 day period with last year's using NPD numbers is that last year's November NPD did not track Cyber Monday.
Nintendo isnt comparing this to last years NPD tracking.
It's a direct comparison for week to week last year. CM will have had no impact on the 115% growth Nintendo is reporting
So in actuality the growth this year will be even larger than what's being reported
You're right, but you have to remember that we're talking about the company that reported selling "over 3 million" Wii consoles one December and then the NPD reported 3.8 million.
I'm not talking about Nintendo's comparison.
Some users are trying to guess what percentage of Nintendo's 2017 November NPD results (~775k) were on this 5 day period, so they can make comparisons using the 115% increase. All I'm saying is that this 5 day period was not fully tracked in NPD's November 2017 report, since Cyber Monday was tracked in December. Therefore the 775k figure is not accurate for the entire November 2017 + Cyber Monday.
Like what people here mentioned, Nintendo did this before.
if Switch sold ~800K in BF period, the month LTD will be above 1m for sure.
I like to think that Mat Piscatella is sitting there reading this thread with a chuckle as he looks at the exact and accurate numbers that we're all trying to figure out and make sense of.
Mat actually wont have full data yet. NPD tracking period isnt over yet. Hes probably got some reporting though yeah
That's a good point. Like I said, that 595k figure is almost way too low and this only backs that up even more. Just did some maths, considering there were two weeks before BF this year instead of three last year:
If that 8.2M is as of the 26th, then for Switch to have not been down YOY leading up to BF, it can only have sold a maximum of 415k. Yet, we know for absolute certain it sold at least 500k over those 5 days (Wii 2011). This means if that 8.2M is right, then Switch was at best 5% down YOY in terms of daily average. And that's assuming the Wii in 2011 sold 0 units on the thursday before BF and the three days after.
Even if you consider Wii selling 100k more over those days, so Switch sold 600k over those 5 days this year, then Switch would be down 24% from last year as a daily average. And as we discussed above, that 600k is still probably extremely low.
But of course these are still all overestimates, as CM was in December last year.
I was actually meaning to ask him about that the next time he popped in somewhere. Do you know how often they get updated figures during the month at NPD? It isn't just at the end, is it?
Edit: Didn't notice your ninja edit, that makes sense.
Especially considering Benji mentioned Switch having stronger sales early/pre BF weeks.
We dont really need to come up with anything other than the 800k+ for Thanksgiving week as that's fact. Nothing else needs to be worked out to know it was over 1 million for the month by the end of the week. Add in Cyber Monday and you are probably looking at Switch being above 1 million by a large margin
I won't see any November actuals until like December 7th. So all I'm really thinking about right now is what I'm going to have for lunch and whether I can weasel my way out of my 2PM conference call.
Why doesn't have this message board a like button?
That's a post worth hitting on it.
Just tell them that you're too busy conducting field research into the mindset of a particularly strange subset of the industry's target market.
Little did he realize that his lunch was sentient and planning revenge!!! DUN! DUN! DUUUUN!!!!
...I'm sorry, I'm a bit loopy right now.
I checked out several stores on Black Thursday and the mk8 bundles and Spider-Man 4 ps4 bundles were all sold out. I knew both of those items were huge sellers
I don't know if I'm just reading into this wrong or something but it sounds kind of like you're saying 3.8 million isn't "over 3 million" when it is in fact 800,000 over 3 million.
Calamari's description is more epic, though, I think you should go with that one instead!
Generally you would expect PR reports of consoles sales to be a lot more accurate. 800k "over" is pretty huge. It would make a lot more sense to go for a closer number like 3.5M or 3.75M for the PR.
They could just as easily have said "over 2 million".
The issue is that some contend that Nintendo wouldn't give lower bound numbers (I.e. "over X million") that are significantly below the actual number, when in reality we know they do.