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NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
- Start date
Well yeah, obviously. But I don't know how much of the market eBay represents. If they are 1% of the markets, for example, then 2*6646 = 13292 units would stand for 1.3M units sold on BF + CM, just to illustrate. Considering they name Switch as a top selling product, I doubt the number should be considered low tbh.
If you have access to data from a large segment of the marketplace and then get to compare it to NPD each month you'll get to have a pretty good idea how the sales you can see extrapolate to the total market.
That's what I'd like to know too. Will the $179 Switches be included in NPD?
I'm starting to think PS4 actually isn't #1 in November.
Either that Spider-Man bundle really had a lot of stock and sold faster than all of us are predicting (which is why it was barely on sale during black friday) or Nintendo actually has a shot at #1 this month.
If Sony doesn't have something prepared for December, it's going to be like last year and they are coming out in 3rd.
Either that Spider-Man bundle really had a lot of stock and sold faster than all of us are predicting (which is why it was barely on sale during black friday) or Nintendo actually has a shot at #1 this month.
If Sony doesn't have something prepared for December, it's going to be like last year and they are coming out in 3rd.
I think Sony takes November, but by a significantly smaller margin than last year.
I also think Sony takes #2 in December, not #3. Xbox was still riding off the X launch excitement last year + PUBG launched early in the month. Neither will be a factor this year and Sony has a better Slim bundle this time around with Black Ops 4.
The Spider-Man bundle had a ton of stock. Most of it sold before we even got to Thanksgiving. The only systems in stock to sell on Thanksgiving was whatever retailers held back to actually have the item in stock when they opened Thursday since it was in the ad.
Hell, thats the reason why even the Core 1TB systems moved over Blackfriday weekend was because the Spider-Man system had sold out and people just wanted a PS4.
I wouldn't be so sure about this. Switch will be first but Xbox has worse deals than last year and if Sony makes BO IIII bundle $249 for week or two they have better deal for December than last year as BO IIII has more appeal as a game than Battlefront 2 had (bundled game last december).
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NPD projects to 100% of the market anyway.
Considering we have Switch doing a confirmed over 800k on BF week alone, yeah
Switch and PS4 are going to be very close come NPD in November. And likely unless Sony have something big planned for December Switch may end up the best selling hardware for the Year
Congrats to MatPiscatella you called it
Switch and PS4 are going to be very close come NPD in November. And likely unless Sony have something big planned for December Switch may end up the best selling hardware for the Year
Congrats to MatPiscatella you called it
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We don't know for sure that this is true, just that it should be somewhere around 800k. The Wii sold 800k on BF week in 2008 between Sunday (before BF) and Saturday (after BF). The Switch sold more than any other Nintendo console in the 5 day period of Thursday (before BF) to Monday (after BF). So the majority of sales likely overlap but we can't be sure they all do.
Well they said it beat Wiis best during the same time period which was 800k
I see its 7 days vs 5 but frankly that will be mostly a wash. You are looking at roughly 800k Thanksgiving week regardless.
I think everyone pretty much knows Switch will outsell PS4 and XB1 in Dec esp since they are the only ones launching a major title.
I would hope a console in its 2nd year with two Major releases during he holiday would outsell a console in its 5th year in the market.
Still, the important thing to take out of ALL of this is that the market is strong for all 3 consoles atm which just leads to better competition and hopefully better innovations.
I would hope a console in its 2nd year with two Major releases during he holiday would outsell a console in its 5th year in the market.
Still, the important thing to take out of ALL of this is that the market is strong for all 3 consoles atm which just leads to better competition and hopefully better innovations.
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It wasn't the same amount of days in the comp. Which makes it a bit difficult to say it's over 800k. It likely would be though.
(Sorry for being pedantic lol)
No your not Zhuge. Your an analyst your looking at it the right way.
Thing is it's a 5 day vs 7 day period. More than likely given how things sell during those days it's mostly a wash. We also Nintendo being vague and simply saying it beat Wii but not by how much.
For all we know we are looking at 850k or even 900k.
Either way it's in the ballpark of 800k. Give or take maybe a 100k or so
The difference between the Wii 800k and this Switch 5 days is that the Wii included Sunday- Wednesday before BF, while the Switch has the Sunday and (Cyber) Monday after. I think those two will in all likelihood be very close, and in fact you'd probably say there's more sales in those two days for Switch.
It's a bit strange to me that they had such an excellent bundle but there's still a possibility they might be down YoY.
Part of me wonders, with how the PS4 was selling the rest of the year, if PS4 at $199 without Spiderman/PS4 at $249 with Spiderman plus significantly more stock would've resulted in similar sales over the entire month as we are getting now.
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On the other hand, Switch performance in November is way more impressive than I anticipated. I was expecting November to be good, just not this good. And if November is doing this well, then December, with Smash...
It's gonna be big.
I think even Sony wasn't expecting how much demand their system still has after 5 years.
They stocked more this BF that last year but still were unable to keep up demand.
They stocked more this BF that last year but still were unable to keep up demand.
Outside of some promotions Sony does not seem to give a fuck about doing huge hardware numbers anymore. Probably because revenue from the gaming division is completely off the charts by now.
They should have a fairly accurate idea how much demand for $199 PS4 is because they never hit that price point for a outside a very short promotion days. To me they are ready to sacrifice the profitability of the future to the revenues of today. They can simply hit 20m for the fiscal year if they had reduced the price of PS4 to $199 from November onwards.
Is this the right strategy is a separate debate but my simple point is that they had or must have a pretty accurate idea of the demand of PS4 at $199 price point. I am sure they know that if they reduced PS4 to $199 they can hit around 4m in USA alone.
Lol, for a second I thought you meant it'd outsell the entire PS3 LTD in just this one month.
Right. Sony is going to sell whatever they ship. The $199 version is just going to sell much faster but with loss revenue (even though the amount per unit sold may be small, if any is loss at all). There is also the risk of shortages.
So, if you're going to sell every unit, why not just keep it higher priced and make more money and keep stock flow regular? They just sent a set amount of the $199 SKU and settled with the total loss from that.
It is pretty similar to Switch right now.
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I think that would be a given, I'm expecting both PS4 and Xbox to be down this year and both combined last year did like 2.5 million or less.
Where does Xbox figure in all this? Guess its highly unlikely we will have YoY bump since Xbox One X was last year?
Is not really a given... but yeah, right now is looking very likely. PS4/XB1 may struggle to sell 1 million in December, while Switch will easy surpass 2 million.
I'd be very surprised (shocked really) to see Nov YoY growth for Xbox given the X launch comp.
lmao had to re-reead Zhuge post because I thought the same. Anyway, that's quite an achievement. What was the PS3 LTD in US?
Just for context - and the fun of it - in 2017 a car was sold every 1,3 seconds in China.
PS4 sales taking a dive on CM shouldn't surprise anyone. But it's great news that at least the Switch is still able to compete sales-wise - even if Nintendo emphasizes they are sailing in another ocean ;).
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In theory at least, but this whole $179 deal was just... weird. I wonder if and how it can be tallied, and if it will have a significant effect.