At least for me this is because I never once questioned that they'd smash that software forecast. That's a lot less interesting to me since it seemed basically guaranteed.
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Nintendo needs to sell 14.93 million units in the six months from October 2018 to March 2019
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At least for me this is because I never once questioned that they'd smash that software forecast. That's a lot less interesting to me since it seemed basically guaranteed.
That's fair. I would say that a lot of other people's fervent interest is a lot less academic though.
Yep this is how I'm seeing it. Obviously the overall shipments could vary, presumably if they are "close enough", in sell through they can ship extra to make the goal.
It wasn't different tracker's have different sell-through tracking methodologies.
This is exactly what I was thinking as I kept reading and was in fact about to post almost the same thing lol.
Just a reminder - this is Switch Sales in Japan during the holiday period 2017:
Week 46 2017: 86.999(+9%)
Week 47 2017: 145.200(+67%)
Week 48 2017: 124.770(-14%)
Week 49 2017: 164.908(+32%)
Week 50 2017: 221.210(+34%)
Week 51 2017: 269.684(+21%)
Week 52 2017:134.519(-50%)
Week 1 2018: 146.006(+9%)
TOTAL: 1.293.296
AVERAGE PER WEEK: 161.662
Now last year the only notable game release around this 8 weeks was Super Mario Odyssey which launched Week 43.
This year Week 46 coincided with the launch of Pokemon Lets Go, you have Smash Ultimate launching, Minecraft bundle launching, Super Mario Party JoyCon bundle launching, Dragon Quest Builders 2 launching... yeah 300K per week is a 100% increase YoY, so it would be difficult to envision those type of sales but in Japan I think momentum heading into 2019 will be much stronger. Games I outlined should help push the console and you have a bunch more games launching early 2019. Compare that to last year where you had Mario+Rabbids and Kirby as the only two games that launched during Q1 that sold well. There was certainly a drought of games up until March 2018 - when third party efforts started to ramp up a bit.
Week 46 2017: 86.999(+9%)
Week 47 2017: 145.200(+67%)
Week 48 2017: 124.770(-14%)
Week 49 2017: 164.908(+32%)
Week 50 2017: 221.210(+34%)
Week 51 2017: 269.684(+21%)
Week 52 2017:134.519(-50%)
Week 1 2018: 146.006(+9%)
TOTAL: 1.293.296
AVERAGE PER WEEK: 161.662
Now last year the only notable game release around this 8 weeks was Super Mario Odyssey which launched Week 43.
This year Week 46 coincided with the launch of Pokemon Lets Go, you have Smash Ultimate launching, Minecraft bundle launching, Super Mario Party JoyCon bundle launching, Dragon Quest Builders 2 launching... yeah 300K per week is a 100% increase YoY, so it would be difficult to envision those type of sales but in Japan I think momentum heading into 2019 will be much stronger. Games I outlined should help push the console and you have a bunch more games launching early 2019. Compare that to last year where you had Mario+Rabbids and Kirby as the only two games that launched during Q1 that sold well. There was certainly a drought of games up until March 2018 - when third party efforts started to ramp up a bit.
That could be very true, yeah.
Yeah it's very hard to pin down how the shipments will relate to sell through. I mean, some of the bigger shipments likely come in early January when stores need to restock from the holiday rush, but while these shipments happen specifically due to Q3 sales they will show up as Q4 shipments.
So without knowing Nintendo's distribution schedule all we can do is make rough estimates.
And if they are a bit shy of their goal I'd imagine they will ship extra towards the end of Q4, which they seemingly did last year (since Q1 2018 shipments were down but sell through was up in the US and Japan).
OP
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To be fair we don't actually know the hardware sales caused by the game.
I think the great word of mouth heading into black Friday and December is actually a better indicator for hardware sales than the 3M units of the game sold in its opening week.
Well, we do know that Benji said that hardware sales were "insane" during the week in which pokémon launched, and that definitely wasn't caused by the Smash bundle or by any other reason. Considering he knows what Pokémon typically does for hardware, I think him saying that Switch hardware sales were insane is a very positive indicator for Let's Go's hardware selling capability.
Mind linking to any? My sisters wanna get a Switch over Black Friday
https://slickdeals.net/share/android_app/t/12322051
Check out slickdeals. Lots of deals. Another one with let's go for $287
For everyone's information, the US accounts for most of the holiday season game purchases. I believe Reggie said it sas around 60% so we should expect more shipments to US and less to Japan. The 25% percent Japan share does not hold for november and december. The forecast is really dependant on how the performance goes in the US.
Not sure that's the case for hardware, though. Last year the Americas' share of hardware shipments rose only 0.4% from September 2017 to December 2017. And that's despite total hardware shipments doubling in that period. There's a slight increase in share there, but it's largely negligible.
Yeah that may be true, but Im expecting a 15 to 20% share from Japan in Q3 to be honest.
True, I just assumed Phantom Theif was referring to the 3M sold announcement.
Hmm, Japan would need to ship 3M to maintain its 25% share in Q3 (assuming Q3 aims to be 12 million shipped). Sell-through so far is about 450k, and it's hard to see the next 6 weeks put it above 2.5M, but shipments could be 3M I think. But yeah, 20% seems more reasonable at the moment, unless Smash blows apart even my lofty expectations.
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I don't know why they care lol, but yeah, it's clear Let's Go is driving sales
I'm just referencing its general sales, and the reports of the uptick in hardware sales as a result
The article in that tweet is absolute trash, spun about as negatively as it can. Including Pachter's "prediction", not mentioning Let's Go or the hype behind Smash or how well it looks like the Switch has sold in November, especially in countries such as the US.
All I can think of is that they want to bring Nintendo shares down even lower so they can buy and then sell after the next quarterly report if Nintendo looks like they will meet their goals?
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Jeffries thinks the switch won't be significantly up in quarter 3? That's similar to last year's numbers....And we already know te console is gonna blow out its November sales last year judging by US insiders, Japan Pokemon week and U.K. Black Friday estimates ....hmm
I'd be curious about Nintendo's track record of predicting when they are having a good year. Sure, they missed on the Wii u.
But their successes usually mean they are conservative with their predictions and will do better than their predictions. Like, what is their track record for a successful console, early in it's life cycle?
That's the only reason I give them the benefit of the doubt. This feels like the early days of the Wii.
'Omg, no way they can keep this up.'
Next month: 'they did it again'
But their successes usually mean they are conservative with their predictions and will do better than their predictions. Like, what is their track record for a successful console, early in it's life cycle?
That's the only reason I give them the benefit of the doubt. This feels like the early days of the Wii.
'Omg, no way they can keep this up.'
Next month: 'they did it again'
Everytime I see these churlish titles like "The Switch story has been exhausted" it always feels like these people are just colluding to hope those shares slip.
Read the article, everyone. It's even crazier than the tweet makes it sound. Nothing but bullshit like "After cramming its best franchises — Super Mario, Zelda and Splatoon — into the first 12 months, the Kyoto-based company was left with fewer games to show off in the second year, hurting hardware sales" completely avoiding mentioning Pokémon and Smash.
And it doesn't even stop there lol
And it doesn't even stop there lol
Not sure about their history of high balling or low balling, but Nintendo have been very upfront that their 20 million is a hard target to hit. I don't think they've been low balling on this estimate at least!
It's possible some of them are trying to depress the market cap of certain companies or they are simply following the herd. You don't want to be That Guy when it comes to big money consultation firms.
Also remember that the average financial analyst actually do worse than the actual stock market performance as a whole. These are paid professionals too.
Oh my god you're not kidding. That's one of the worst hit pieces I've ever seen. Practically everything is wrong in it. It's fucking nuts!
Seriously?! It's already a mass market product. What is this nonsense? And they emphasize Labo as though that's where they put their money this year and don't mention Smash or Pokémon. Crazy!
Can't wait to buy some shares this week if idiots gobble this up.
Yeah Reggie said 60%
Did they already sold 40% of what they need?
Q1+Q2 were 5 million. If Q4 sells at a similar rate, it will do 2.5 million. That would leave 12.5 million for Q3. That's 62.5% of the 20 million goal
Hi Bloomberg, looks like there is a discrepancy between your analysts and your reporters:
Nintendo Switch Highest Online Selling Product Thanksgiving Day, 3rd most popular toy on Cyber Monday
Nintendo Switch Highest Online Selling Product Thanksgiving Day, 3rd most popular toy on Cyber Monday
That user misquoted. Reggie said NOA makes 60% of their yearly sales during the holiday season, where he specified October to December. Also, there is a 0% chance Q4 sales are at the same rate as Q1 or Q2. In fact, that's an absurd assumption to make
Q4 was 3m last year with worse new and catalog releases. Q4 will be 3-4m this year although that still leaves 11-12m for Q3.
But the analyst said they only had the failed Labo experiment to promote! Who would buy all those Switches?! Such a mystery....
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