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NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
- Start date
I mentioned earlier I wonder if we could have a split with units versus revenue.
I guess this means Switch continues to perform strong and is exceeding some expectations outside of Black Friday (Black Friday week)?
I said it in the prediction thread as well but my take is that Switch will take both november and december because Nintendo is going all in in terms of promotion and stock. They will do whatever it takes to reach that 20 million. A 1,5 november and a >2.5 december wouldnt surprise me that all.
Tbh, Benji latest batch of insights are very recent, and before that word was that PS4 might have more stock than last year. Now with the new insights and the large number of Switch deals, the latter view (things being quite close) has become more reasonable, but before that expectations were that PS4 would do way more than Switch. Plenty of people have yet to catch up with the latest insights, I think.
While I'm not confident PS4 will take it, the Spider-Man bundle being on sale for much longer than BF leads me to lean in that direction.
It sounds like everyone is going to have a solid month though.
I mean even after his insight, lots of people kept commenting that PS4 had a guaranteed win.
It's not a big deal anyways, even if PS4 comes second, it's not like it "really" came second because Sony purposely limited its stock
Being flat this month would be an incredible performance for the Xbox One, since it's compared to a month with a new model launch.
This is how I've interpreted your posts over the last few pages. And to be clear, it seems like a design on Sony's part to limit how many $200 models they are willing to sell versus one system being more popular than another.
Earlier you mentioned Cyber Monday not being part of last years tracking. I assume that means it was tracked in December. What were the effects on sales last year?
Edit: wait a second, could this be a bizarre month where Sony hardware tops unit sales but Nintendo tops revenue?
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Yeah, but you know, the supply. Of course the demand is huge, but does Sony want to put huge amounts of money into making quick shipments and exhausting their December supply? They had holiday seasons like this with the PS2 too, where they simply just could not ship enough to meet demand.
I'd be very much surprised if the PS4 didn't sell the most unit wise this month considering it was $100 cheaper than it's closest competition for the run up. Maybe Sony didn't ship all that much but I'd say it was most probably there's to lose so to speak.
Assuming the majority of PS4 sales are $199 SKUs then yeah, it's definitely possible. Pro sales will offset that a bit but probably not enough. Switch had some expensive bundles. I think the Pokemon bundles were $399.
These Switch deals are a good way to get the bundles to have their day in the sun, then raise the non-bundle versions to almost the same level of appeal.
Really curious how Switch is selling today. It's nice to see NoA offering a decent Cyber Monday promotion.
Being $100 cheaper isn't going to win you the month if they didn't ship enough especially if they were sold out in a lot of places even before actual Black Friday
I still expect it to be down YoY tbh
In regards to Switch and PS4 it still looks like PS4 will be the top platform for November. I'm just saying the gap is likely going to be much closer than many were thinking it would be. PS4 still led BF week by a pretty big margin but Switch was outselling it substantially the rest of the month.
In the end BF week will probably be enough to give the PS4 the edge but I'm not expecting a huge gap.
I mean yeah that's what the second half of the post was saying. Largely comes down to how much sony was wiling to sell but I can't imagine them shipping much less than last year and even the Switch selling near that amount would be truly astonishing. Though I guess Cyber Monday being included in november will be a big distinguisher between this year and last.
So it seems that PS4 will take it in units but I assume Switch will take $ sales? It also depends on the rest of this week I guess as Smash hype ramps up.
Awesome to hear!
Dumb question but with Smash Bros drawing near, what do you think it's NPD will be? I'm kinda curious if it's possibly gonna beat Sun and Moon(hell maybe Halo 3) possibly or if it'll come in below that.
I'm excited to see what software looks like this month. Seems like a lot of variety compared to previous years.
Yea, would be cool to get some details on 3DS sales. Curious to know just how much more Nintendo was able to squeeze out of it.
Some UK stats here for Black Friday. 300 000 consoles were sold (PS4 > Xbox One > Switch) with little gap between each.
I would assume
PS4 110,000
Xbox 100,000
NSW 90,000
But could all be closer than that.
if ps4 doesn't win december they can still include ps1 classic and proclaim a win for the playstation family.
Sony will lose both november and december NPD to Switch(i expect a blowout humiliation in december). They shipped low based on what they thought they would sell this year and underestimated the demand of their product. no one to blame but themselves
On the other hand however, if things go well for them after the holidays, they are likely going to clear 100 million late next year or early 2020 anyways, so...i suppose from their perspective, the amount of units sold doesnt really matter much? It depends on when the games they have coming down the pipe are coming i suppose
On the other hand however, if things go well for them after the holidays, they are likely going to clear 100 million late next year or early 2020 anyways, so...i suppose from their perspective, the amount of units sold doesnt really matter much? It depends on when the games they have coming down the pipe are coming i suppose
I wouldn't be surprised if the NES + SNES Classic systems outsell the PS Classic in the US in December, assuming the stock is as plentiful as it has been in recent weeks.
Its a prediction, of course i can be wrong. But the reason i say so is because of how strong the switch's hardware has been. As has been said by the experts, switch has been outperforming the PS4 all month and PS4 only had a few days of boost due to the absolutely crazy deals near BF. But that's already run out. And next month there's largely nothing planned, so Switch's victory with that momentum is assured, especially when it didnt need a drop in price to do what they supposedly did this month. Smash is gonna bring it home
i was actually gonna mention that. Why only include PSX classic and not the two far more successful plug and play systems Sony stole the idea from? Nintendo's success in that area was the only reason Sony bothered to do it, and even then at a more expensive price point.
They didn't understimate demand, they had a specific amount they wanted to sell, I'm sure they knew demand was gonna be strong as they had a similar priced bundle last year.
And if we are playing that silly game, may as well include the 3DS.
Oh absolutely, I expect Switch to remain strong in December and probably come out with the most sales. November though it seems PS4 is most likely to end highest though. Maybe PS4 and Switch are closer in sales than some may expect but, PS4 will probably stick on top. Though you could be right, who knows. Things change lol but we'll see
User Banned (3 Days): Personal Attacks and console wars
It's that time of year again where Inuhanyou comes in with 'hot takes' that end with him being wrong
I expect, he will take a crazy bet from another member shortly to which he will end up eating a slipper or something
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i dont really get your logic. their predictions to investors for this fiscal year were based on predictions of how many they could sell right? and that's what they base how much they ship on correct? So they predicted what they would sell, but demand is much stronger than that at the 199 price point and with the software they had with spiderman and such, right?
If you think my predictions are such hot takes, what's your reasoning for thinking so? ANd what do ya mean "that time of the year again", i'd have you know that i've made tons of predictions that turned out right sales wise across all times of the year
I really don't understand what you are saying, they raised their forecast because PS4 was doing better than they thought throughout the year and not because of the $199 Spider-Man bundle.
let me put it another way...their forecast predictions are directly connected to how much they ship right? So they cant sell more than they ship obviously. But based on what we are seeing, the demand has outpaced those predictions. Whether they knew they would have sold more and just didnt bother to ship more, or whether they thought they would only sell around as much as they shipped, either way they could have sold more if they had shipped more in november and boosted those expectations.
What about november? Is it a toss up? I have my predictions with switch possibly taking it by a small amount
Again, the increase in forecast have nothing to do with BF sales as they did that way before BF.
im not talking about the increase in forecast, get away from that. i am talking about how much they have shipped based on their general forecast for the year. black friday was absolutely apart of that, and they underestimated how much they could sell
That's certainly what I was implying though I don't know where PSVR falls in all of this. Accessories? Separate from console sales? I doubt it'd be the thing that pushes it over the line if sales really are that close, but I've no idea.