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Wkd Box Office - 11•16-18•18 - Beasts 2 not as Fantastic with $62M Domestic. Venom nearing $800M WW.
- Thread starter kswiston
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I sincerely hope that audiences are getting tired of Nostalgia for Nostalgia's sake. Solo and Grindelwald being rejected bu casual audiences makes me a bit hopeful
Grindelwald and Solo are rejections on a different scale. Grindelwald is a definite disappointment but the world isn't collapsing, by star wars standards Solo was a disaster of epic proportions. Also, Venom is also definitely a nostalgia thing for many people who grew up with the comics. So I wouldn't say it's been rejected
I have a list of people to blame if Spiderverse doesn't succeed and/or makes less than Venom.
But I'm mostly holding Bronson responsible.
But I'm mostly holding Bronson responsible.
If people are looking for a timeline of when Venom will hit performance milestones to do with WW and China
There is a very high chance that Venom adds around 40M next week* in China and likely sit just over or under 260M in China / 840M WW.
260M / 840M WW
Over the following two weeks it will meet the following
280M/860MWW
After the next 1.5 weeks Venom should have formally passed Spider-Man Homecomings WW total with ROW having contributed closer to 10M-20M throughout.
This is incorporating all possible scenarios to do with screen gifting from FB2 and the best information about the weight of upcoming releases.
*Friday to Thursday counted as 1 week duration
Random notes for China
Venom first out earned Infinity War on day 7 (1st Thursday)
Venom: 8.98M
Infinity War 8.26M
There is a very high chance that Venom adds around 40M next week* in China and likely sit just over or under 260M in China / 840M WW.
260M / 840M WW
Over the following two weeks it will meet the following
280M/860MWW
After the next 1.5 weeks Venom should have formally passed Spider-Man Homecomings WW total with ROW having contributed closer to 10M-20M throughout.
This is incorporating all possible scenarios to do with screen gifting from FB2 and the best information about the weight of upcoming releases.
*Friday to Thursday counted as 1 week duration
Random notes for China
Venom first out earned Infinity War on day 7 (1st Thursday)
Venom: 8.98M
Infinity War 8.26M
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But Venom did not go "Hey member the 90´s?" "Member Black Suit?"
They went in a completely different direction by making Venom the Hero and people liked it
Went to see Beasts 2. It wasn't terrible by any means but the plot was so thin that I was a bit disappointed. Almost felt like a filler movie.
I might be wrong but it's not even relatively recently that he's even had a series that hasn't sold poorly. He was given a ton of limited series throughout the 90s but I think only Lethal Protector #1-2 ever sold well.
Short of the Venom book this year that has taken off, his most successful (but still meager I believe) ongoing was Secret Agent Venom which wasn't even Eddie Brock.
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People seem mighty sure about Spider-Verse's prospects when people here were crowing about Venom making less than $500m worldwide just a couple of months ago.
Completely different scenarios. People thought Venom would flop because it's a terrible movie. (Some) people now think Spiderverse will do merely okay (500M) despite being good because (at least imo based just on the trailer and seeing as how animated comicbook superhero films have not matched their live action counterparts or even close to it - Pixar is an exception) it doesn't have enough buzz or hook to lure a large number of audiences
How much do you expect it to make?
Venom can't be a villain if he had no attachment to Spider-Man. Sony can't make him a villain even if they wanted to. Besides, Venom has been an anti-hero longer than a villain. His status as a major Spider-Man villain in still on top but he's also grown beyond that. He was always a "hero" to fans.
$500m would be fantastic for Spiderverse
It'd be SPA's most successful movie and they generally keep their budgets pretty low
Completely wrong. People thought Venom would flop because DERES NO SPIDERMAN IN IT WHO'S GONNA SEE IT!!111
They thought its very premise was enough to make it bomb.
$550m-$600m, perhaps. I wouldn't be surprised at it being a huge breakout hit and doing $700-800m numbers given the apparent top-tier quality of it.
Went and saw Girl in the Spider's Web tonight since it's leaving every theater around me. On it's own, it would be a fair enough movie. But in comparison to Fincher's film, it's a lesser film. Lesser director, lesser actors, lesser screenplay, lesser score; lesser everything. I don't know if a Fincher directed sequel would have even made Solo money, but it sure as shit wouldn't have been out of theaters in less than two weeks. Sony badly miscalculated where the draw in a Dragon Tattoo sequel lied. It wasn't the IP itself, but rather the talent they put together for the first film.
Yeah, it's very uninspired. It's repeating a lot of stuff from the first movie but it's weaker. It's a fun movie but the shine has worn off.
Sounds like it's following the Rocky tradition.
Antman and the Wasp (622M) is going to have company. Late December slot will help it a bit, and the meager December lineup for the comic nerd demographics could help it a lot. I can see it doing a lot of 'ah fuck it' business in January. The best DCEU movie outside of Wonder Woman is going to be staring probably the least appealing/popular DCEU character. It looks competent; it's (DCEU) Aquaman for gods sake, a character that was introduced in a film that was loathed. It needs to do more to win people over than just meeting baseline.
60M OW 175M-225M DOM 400M-500M INT (Because China)
Internationally: excluding China, it will do sub/around Justice League (330M). China stands to push that number higher, doing at least noticeably better in comparison with the potential to breakout, hence the weird total and range for INT.
Because:
Tencent entered into a relatively last minute deal with WB to handle it in China. The effect of this is not comparable to the Venom deal that had deep early integration with ample time to get the marketing in place. Tencent still has amazing market penetration on social media to drive the effects heavy film, which China loves. I wouldn't be surprised if it doubles Justice Leagues 107M, maybe a bit. It's also possible that Aquaman picks up some business from people who didn't otherwise do CBM but saw Venom and said 'ok' to seeing another with Aquaman just around the corner.
On Spiderverse
It's not impossible that Spider-verse captures the zeitgeist. Though I think that this is unlikely. Spider-Verse may be great, but it's a too unique for its own good (Zanyness, visual style, animation) to get everyone buying a ticket on WOM. Social media for it has been weak. Sub 100M DOM total weak.
I don't see the newer trailers that did little different than the old ones as changing its overall trajectory in fact I see them as having hurt it, but it should get some better projections closer to release as interest picks up. International is where it stands to out do Lego Batman, but that's more so on the growth in markets since then.
I'd go as far to say that Sony has bungled selling Spiderverse. They needed better trailers to follow the first and the homogeneity of them all lead me to wonder about the film itself.
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Yeah I see 500M as the good outcome but 400m as the more likely one, in line with it being a bit more popular and successful than Lego Batman.
How is that reason relevant to people's scepticism of Spiderverse being a breakout hit?
https://twitter.com/bumblebeemovie/status/1065243435425255424?s=19
Bumblebee is having early screenings on the 8th of December. Looks like they might be trying to get some good word of mouth.
Bumblebee is having early screenings on the 8th of December. Looks like they might be trying to get some good word of mouth.
I'm going to be mortified when Bumblebee comes out and it's amazing and the first good Trasnformers movie and is genuine and has so much heart and is actually readable and has great Soundwave and nobody sees it and it bombs spectacularly and then they reboot the whole franchise with a backdoor Micronauts spinoff.
It's got John Cena in it, it's gonna do fine
Might not do as good as/better than Spiderverse, Aquaman, or Poppins, but it doesn't need to to not bomb. With $102mil it's already the lowest-budgeted live-action Transformers film (the first Transformers being the second-lowest, with $150mil budget)
The movie's actually just cobbled together from his cut footage from King Arthur: Legend of the Sword.
A Robin Hood movie stealing from the rich (and...giving?....to the poor? Did anyone get anything out of this?) seems kind of fitting.
For all of those worried;
'Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse' Swinging To $30M-$40M Start – Early Tracking
This won't though:
'Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse' Swinging To $30M-$40M Start – Early Tracking
The top end of that is nearly double of what boxoffice.com's long range tracking has it at, and they had it finishing at $90M. So it looks like it's gonna be fine.
This won't though:
Mortal Engines has always looked like the likeliest bomba out of December since the people behind Alita got some sense and bailed
I think it is a couple years too late, Maze runner got the last of the YA money train
I mean.... Lego Batman opened to $53m.
Spider-Man will probably do fine, but I don't think it'll do as well as people hope.
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In February. Holiday season tends to favour lower openings and longer legs, same reason why the $55M Aquaman number isn't a disaster. Even if I think both films are getting lowballed at the moment.
Also Lego Batman did fine. Not awesome, but fine.
Nah. I'm going all in, I'll say a $60m opening for Spider-Verse. Once the glowing reviews pour in, the more RottenTomatoes-savvy crowd is sold. Parents will look at the following choices: Bumblebee, Aquaman, or Spider-Man and obviously choose the latter off the tremendous successes of Venom and Infinity War as their Christmas flick pick.
With fantastic word-of-mouth and the holidays leg buff, $200m NA will happen. Internationally, I haven't a clue, though.
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