I wanted to take a moment to discuss about NPD analyst and ERA member Mat Piscatella's opinions about hardware cycles. Basically from October results, one of his "
quick hit takes" is that "hardware cycles as we knew them are over".
He then explained:
And I think he's right. It's clear that both PS4 and Xbox One are still seeing tremendous success even when we are relatively late in their life cycles. 3DS is also seeing a similar situation in the US. This of course can be attributed to the Pro and X revisions, but I think there's also the other important factor mentioned by Mat: "bigger consumer response to promotion". But why is exactly this happening? What makes this generation's promotions more appealing to people than last gen's?
This also ties into Nintendo's ex-president statement about Switch having a 10 year life cycle. With revisions that boost the performance, there's really no need for a full successor in a long time if this trend continues.
But returning to Sony and Microsoft, it's evident they are working on next-gen consoles and will release as soon as 2020. Should those consoles be developed with longer life cycles in mind? Multiple revisions instead of a succesor in 6-7 years, so they have a 10 year cycle like Nintendo?