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Not a Horse

Member
Aug 15, 2018
344
There's no reason they can't just do an upgrade every 3 years or so on the same architecture for the foreseeable future. The big question is when and how they will drop the older Iterations of the same product line to allow games to progress. How do you signal to developers that they no longer need to develop for the early consoles, and signal to consumers that their "first gen" hardware will no longer support the latest games.
 

Halbrand

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,615
It seems insane to think that console life cycles could be getting longer when people buy much more expensive phones far more often

I was happy to upgrade to a Pro, and for just $219, when in Canada an iPhone will cost at least $1500.
 

elzeus

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,887
I think people will be surprised at how blurred the lines between hardware generations will be going forward barring any exotic hardware being used which so far does not seem likely.
 

Toni

Banned
Nov 13, 2017
1,983
Orlando, Florida
Like I said. It's all ultimately heading to a long spanning next gen with Cloud tech and console refreshes doing the heavy lifting.

I strongly believe the PS5/X2 gen will be more than 7 years.

Corporations and investors don't like when super profitable sectors completely reset the revenue stream. Its mind boggling that the console industry has gone as long as it has resetting to absolute 0 every generation.

That concept is dying. And we are seeing the last of it.
 

Trup1aya

Literally a train safety expert
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,330
I wanted to take a moment to discuss about NPD analyst and ERA member Mat Piscatella's opinions about hardware cycles. Basically from October results, one of his "quick hit takes" is that "hardware cycles as we knew them are over".

He then explained:





And I think he's right. It's clear that both PS4 and Xbox One are still seeing tremendous success even when we are relatively late in their life cycles. 3DS is also seeing a similar situation in the US. This of course can be attributed to the Pro and X revisions, but I think there's also the other important factor mentioned by Mat: "bigger consumer response to promotion". But why is exactly this happening? What makes this generation's promotions more appealing to people than last gen's?

This also ties into Nintendo's ex-president statement about Switch having a 10 year life cycle. With revisions that boost the performance, there's really no need for a full successor in a long time if this trend continues.

But returning to Sony and Microsoft, it's evident they are working on next-gen consoles and will release as soon as 2020. Should those consoles be developed with longer life cycles in mind? Multiple revisions instead of a succesor in 6-7 years, so they have a 10 year cycle like Nintendo?


That's really interesting. Id love to actually see this gen's charts compared to previous ones.
 

eyeball_kid

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,227
When the PS4 Pro was announced, its defenders made broad claims that the base PS4 would still be the target SKU for developers because of its install base. Well we've learned that was untrue and it feels like it's getting worse with every release. Many games implicitly target the Pro now, with the base PS4 relegated to poor framerates, screen tearing (hello Yakuza 6), and an overall subpar experience.

Used to be, developers eeked out all the power a console had at the end of the lifespan. It seems clear now that most developers aren't paying much attention to performance optimization for the original PS4. And I doubt see Sony having any motivation to scold devs for that -- they want to sell new hardware.
 

GameAddict411

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,513
With streaming on the rise, the future of consoles is not very clear. While we are definitely having a next gen consoles, are there going to be any consoles after that? Also the mid cycle refresh is a very new thing in the console gaming industry. It might be the reason why the behavior of the market is no longer predictable.
 

famikon

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,604
ベラルーシ
Oct 25, 2017
5,602
Since the advent on the console online network infrastructure it's slowly transformed into been a third parties' industry, not surprised at this statement in the least.

It was quaint seeing people turn their nose at the sight of supposed 'console wars' only to staunchly fly the flag for a certain title or software distributor as if they were any different, ie MGS fans during the halcyon years. Lordy.

I'm confused, people are liking the 'your console is upgraded as often as Apple or Samsung's devices' stuff now? I thought people were opposed to that?
 
Oct 26, 2017
8,055
Appalachia
I really hope so.

This also ties into Nintendo's ex-president statement about Switch having a 10 year life cycle. With revisions that boost the performance, there's really no need for a full successor in a long time if this trend continues.
I never forget that Iwata also stated that Switch (back when it was still NX) was the first step in an attempt to redefine what a "platform" is. That it might be a "family" of systems. I think they're gonna try to step out of the generational cycle ASAP.
 

Fanuilos

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
4,131
I think it's possible that some form of the current hardware continues on and is used as a gateway into the streaming services.
 

MetalBoi

Banned
Dec 21, 2017
3,176
Knowing these systems will likely get a mid-gen iterative refresh guarantees I won't be buying day one. They'll have a bunch of cross gen games, and it'll be a slow trek to original and exclusive titles, so why not wait for better hardware?

I see kids and families come in to stores to buy systems and games and a lot of them are still buying 360 games and haven't upgraded to current gen, even to this day. I, for one, have no desire to upgrade to a PS5 any time soon. I mean, with graphics like we're seeing for games like God of War, Spider-Man, AC Odyssey and RDR 2, do we really need to have new systems so soon?

I realize that places like this are mostly in favor of early adoption and moving the tech forward as quickly as possible, but compare that group to a larger majority of regular consumers and I think you'll see that most are happy were we are and probably will be for many years to come.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
So, probably should have used more concrete context. "Highly unpredictable" is really in reference to an expected range of error in a hardware forecast. Of course it isn't random, and of course hardware sales can be forecast. But the range of error is higher now. "Highly unpredictable" can signal randomness, which is certainly not the case here. Bad word choice on my part.
 

Arthands

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
8,039
But I was told one of the reasons for buying consoles is due to the lack of need to upgrade every couple of years, because a console gen last 6 to 7 years long.
 

bane833

Banned
Nov 3, 2017
4,530
Yeah but seeing the X1X success, people don't mind paying more money for more power.
I hate to break it to you but the Pro is clearly the much more successful product and while we enthusiasts may not like it it's much more realistic that Microsoft's goes Pro next gen than Sony going the X route.
 

Jimster

Banned
Oct 30, 2018
57
Good! Mid-gen hardware refresh should be the new standard. I hope Sony learned their lesson and go all the way with the upgrade next-time.

You only have to look at the sales figures to see the correct strategy this generation I'm afraid.

If anything MS are going to copy Sony next time round. I can't imagine that they feel they are in an optimal place at the moment. The window of having the most powerful console until PS5 is pretty small potentially.
 

Duxxy3

Member
Oct 27, 2017
21,699
USA
There's two major upgrades you can do on a PC; CPU (which means changing the motherboard and memory too) and GPU. Both these upgrades are in the 500$ ball park. I don't see how you can pace that down to cheaper upgrades...

I've never spent $500 on a video card. In the 15 or so years I've been upgrading my PC I've spent, on average, around $200 on each GPU. And no, you don't need to swap out the CPU/MOBO/Ram every time you want to make a CPU change. The only change I made this year was a 2tb drive and swapping out my b150 board for a z270.

All of my old parts go to upgrading friends and family.
 

Jimrpg

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,280
If we're talking hardware, PC gamers have been stiffed for at least the last 3 or 4 years.

First it was Pascal GPUs raising prices. Then it was DDR4 ram prices, then SSD prices, and then CPU price increases. Luckily we got Ryzen otherwise Intel would have walked all over us. Lastly we got price increases on Turing GPUs which were mind boggling to say the least, almost double the price from a 1080ti to a 2080ti.

Meanwhile you can get an xbox one x for $399 which has a 6TFlop GPU inside and plays games like Forza Horizon 4 at 1080p/60fps. For $399. This year in Australia you could get it with RDR 2, Forza Horizon 4 and Forza 7 included.

I love PC, but the prices are getting stupid now. The manufacturers are over charging on everything because PC has better hardware at the top end, and (wealthy) people will just pay it.
 

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
Yep, personally I think this will delay PS5 and Xbox Two. The continued success of both give each company more breathing room. So they won't have to release a completely cutting edge box for $500 but instead play it cool andcwait for prices to to drop enough for their next system to be profitable at $400 like the PS4 was. The days of selling at a loss are also over imo.
 

Deleted member 1589

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,576
When the PS4 Pro was announced, its defenders made broad claims that the base PS4 would still be the target SKU for developers because of its install base. Well we've learned that was untrue and it feels like it's getting worse with every release. Many games implicitly target the Pro now, with the base PS4 relegated to poor framerates, screen tearing (hello Yakuza 6), and an overall subpar experience.

Used to be, developers eeked out all the power a console had at the end of the lifespan. It seems clear now that most developers aren't paying much attention to performance optimization for the original PS4. And I doubt see Sony having any motivation to scold devs for that -- they want to sell new hardware.
Nah, it isn't. It's normal for games late in the gen to suffer from lower frame rates and resolutions, as devs sought to make the games look better than before.

Shadow of The Colossus had some bad slowdown on the PS2, and TLoU too on the PS3. These things happen.
 

Treasure Silvergun

Self-requested ban
Banned
Dec 4, 2017
2,206
Promotions have been incredible as of late. In the span of a few months I went from a 360 to a X1S to a X1X for less of the price of a new Switch. I'd never spend €500 for a console, so I'm glad I had this chance. I'm perfectly fine with upgrades if they mean I can keep playing all the games I already have and BC and new games with a little less oomph, then turn in my current console and get the upgraded version with a promotion.
 

Golvellius

Banned
Dec 3, 2017
1,304
I hate to break it to you but the Pro is clearly the much more successful product and while we enthusiasts may not like it it's much more realistic that Microsoft's goes Pro next gen than Sony going the X route.
Proof by assertion?
Except for Japan we don't have any public data on this matter.
 

RivalGT

Member
Dec 13, 2017
6,393
When the PS4 Pro was announced, its defenders made broad claims that the base PS4 would still be the target SKU for developers because of its install base. Well we've learned that was untrue and it feels like it's getting worse with every release. Many games implicitly target the Pro now, with the base PS4 relegated to poor framerates, screen tearing (hello Yakuza 6), and an overall subpar experience.

Used to be, developers eeked out all the power a console had at the end of the lifespan. It seems clear now that most developers aren't paying much attention to performance optimization for the original PS4. And I doubt see Sony having any motivation to scold devs for that -- they want to sell new hardware.
As far as I know Yakuza 6 started out as a PS4 game, and even had a demo on the JP PSN well before the PS4 pro was announced. The game has one of the most barebone PS4 Pro updates, its simply 1080p vs 900p, and slightly better frame rate. Its just a poor performing game in general. From what I've read online Kiwami 2 runs better than Yakuza 6, and they both use the same engine. If you look other 3rd party games, say BF4 and BFV, BF5 actually runs better on a base PS4. And when it comes to 1st party games, they usually runs at a very similar frame rate, unless the pro version has a 60 FPS mode, which isn't often.
 
Nov 4, 2017
7,359
I hate to break it to you but the Pro is clearly the much more successful product and while we enthusiasts may not like it it's much more realistic that Microsoft's goes Pro next gen than Sony going the X route.

You only have to look at the sales figures to see the correct strategy this generation I'm afraid.

If anything MS are going to copy Sony next time round. I can't imagine that they feel they are in an optimal place at the moment. The window of having the most powerful console until PS5 is pretty small potentially.
This.

If the One X was outselling the Pro, we would hear about it. MS were pretty quick to capitalise on those 3 months where the One S was the best selling single SKU in North America with that "best selling console*" campaign.

This is of course confounded by platform momentum and software lineup, so it's hard to do a direct comparison. The One X is a sweet piece of kit, and I don't think it's fair to say either approach was "right" or "wrong", but the Pro seems to have been the more successful route.
 

Golvellius

Banned
Dec 3, 2017
1,304
This.

If the One X was outselling the Pro, we would hear about it. MS were pretty quick to capitalise on those 3 months where the One S was the best selling single SKU in North America with that "best selling console*" campaign.

This is of course confounded by platform momentum and software lineup, so it's hard to do a direct comparison. The One X is a sweet piece of kit, and I don't think it's fair to say either approach was "right" or "wrong", but the Pro seems to have been the more successful route.
It doesn't have to outsell the Pro to be the more successful product. It is already the more successful product if its percentage of sold Xbox consoles is larger than Pro's percentage of sold PS4 consoles.
 

ShinySunny

Banned
Dec 15, 2017
1,730
Honestly, I don't even need a PS5 in 2020.
The Pro with its HDR is good enough.
Too bad they won't be supporting the PS4, so therefore, I will have to move next-gen with the PS5.
 
Nov 4, 2017
7,359
It doesn't have to outsell the Pro to be the more successful product. It is already the more successful product if its percentage of sold Xbox consoles is larger than Pro's percentage of sold PS4 consoles.
So the product that canabalises market share of a related product is more successful? That's like saying the Camry's success can only be measured as a percentage of Toyota's sales when compared to the Corolla.
 

RestEerie

Banned
Aug 20, 2018
13,618
It doesn't have to outsell the Pro to be the more successful product. It is already the more successful product if its percentage of sold Xbox consoles is larger than Pro's percentage of sold PS4 consoles.

This comparison method is disingenuous and it will always put the Pro at an disadvantage as they are alot more base PS4 than base Xbox. It's easier to get 10% out of of a 100 base (10) than 10% out of a 200 base.

Also, consider the fact that most Xbox owners are US/UK centric with (probably) higher disposable income compared to the overall PS4 ownership which is distributed much more evenly across the world. Not everyone is asia can or will or want to upgrade to a Pro for example and more than willing to stay with slim.
 

Cranster

Prophet of Truth
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,788
With sales being so strong for both PS4 and Xbox, which included PRO/X, I wonder if MS/Sony feel that they can put off next gen a little bit meaning 2021?
I'm betting that's the case, it would make sense aswell given that it allows both MS and Sony to work out hardware costs and wait a bit longer for the manufacturing costs to drop slightly. I still think that a part of the reason why the Pro and the X happened is because both companies wanted more powerful hardware initially, but hardware costs prevented that in 2013.

If Both systems are still selling better next year or so, I wouldn't expect next generation to start in 2020.
 

khamakazee

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,937
There's no reason they can't just do an upgrade every 3 years or so on the same architecture for the foreseeable future. The big question is when and how they will drop the older Iterations of the same product line to allow games to progress. How do you signal to developers that they no longer need to develop for the early consoles, and signal to consumers that their "first gen" hardware will no longer support the latest games.

I firmly believe that falls more in line with Microsoft but not Sony. The X I think will play next gen titles but not the original Xbox. Sony believes more so in the traditional generation leap.

Once streaming gets more momentum it's not going to really matter to them.
 

Paxton25

Member
May 9, 2018
1,898
Agree with this.

Expect.... I don't think Sony had to learn a lesson. What they did didn't effect sales in a negative way.

I feel Sony should do what they feel makes more business sense for them with their mid gen refresh.

Really, anyone that wants the more powerful mid gen refresh today can get the One X. If they really care about most powerful.

If anything, hopefully MS learned a lesson....that power isn't everything.

Need more than just power, best place to play 3rd party games.
Thr X isn't purely about power, it's a luxury product with high build standards. It's the best all round console ever made imo
 

Kareha

Banned
Jun 15, 2018
1,460
United Kingdom
The age of silicon is coming to an end, there is no replacement to drop in, so it's no wonder console release cycles are going to be in flux for the forseable future.
 

Freshmaker

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,925
Agree with this.

Expect.... I don't think Sony had to learn a lesson. What they did didn't effect sales in a negative way.

I feel Sony should do what they feel makes more business sense for them with their mid gen refresh.

Really, anyone that wants the more powerful mid gen refresh today can get the One X. If they really care about most powerful.

If anything, hopefully MS learned a lesson....that power isn't everything.

Need more than just power, best place to play 3rd party games.
It's not so much about the power, it's about how half baked the extra power was implemented. They first tried to gate off the unpatched PS4 games entirely from the PS4 Pro hardware. Then there was the weird you need a 4k monitor to gain any benefit from the PS4 Pro. then no downsampling options because... ???

Oh some system update that happened a year later.

Sony really didn't demonstrate any forethought in the way they handled it. It came across as more like they were handed a bonus power boost from a die shrink and decided to roll with it and sort out the details later.

Xbox One X had a much slicker set of features and you got a sense that MS had actually thought out the features they included.
 

radiotoxic

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,019
Yeah but seeing the X1X success, people don't mind paying more money for more power.
$499 should be the new baseline for powerful traditional consoles at launch, tbh. That being said, I feel like the success of the X might have much to do with the fact that the most loyal Xbox crowd were extremely unhappy since the introduction of the original X1, when the brand's stronghold of being a synonym for power suddenly fell apart. I think they, for the most part, wanted a revision asap to be back at the top of the power game.
 
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FSmallhands

Member
Nov 3, 2017
356
I dont think it has much to do with the tech this late in the game really.

What we have had is an insane level of quality games coming thick and fast for about 2 years.

That, plus discounts to base hardware and attractive enthusiast hardware offerings have made it an irresistible package.
 

Turrican3

Member
Oct 27, 2017
781
Italy
Wait, is there some news about the midgen/original models sales ratio?

I recall (and it's already been mentioned in this very thread) some time ago PS4 Pro was more or less 20/25% of global PS4 sales, right? What about XB1 X? And more importantly, what about current data, if any?