Nate Silver: Trump's Base Isn't Enough

Aaron · Nov 20, 2018

Given the discussion surrounding the 2018 elections and whether or not they can be called a "blue wave" (with naysayers downplaying the results), and the constant rally cries of "This won't hurt him with his base!" every time Trump does or says something particularly stupid or nasty, I thought it was worth posting this and going through the basic tenants of his argument.

Trump's Base Isn't Enough

For one: Turnout was through the roof and once the votes are fully tallied, Democrats may have nearly matched (or just matched outright) Trump's popular vote total. This is highly unprecedented:

In another important respect, however, the 2018 wave was indisputably unlike any other in recent midterm history: It came with exceptionally high turnout. Turnout is currently estimated at 116 million voters, or 49.4 percent of the voting-eligible population. That's an astounding number; only 83 million people voted in 2014, by contrast.

This high turnout makes for some rather unusual accomplishments. For instance, Democratic candidates for the House will receive almost as many votes this year as the 63 million that President Trump received in 2016, when he won the Electoral College (but lost the popular vote).

...

There isn't really any precedent for the opposition party at the midterm coming so close to the president's vote total. The closest thing to an exception is 1970, when Democratic candidates for the House got 92 percent of Richard Nixon's vote total from 1968, when he was elected president with only 43 percent of the vote. Even in wave elections, the opposition party usually comes nowhere near to replicating the president's vote from two years earlier. In 2010, for instance, Republican candidates received 44.8 million votes for the House — a then-record total for a midterm but far fewer than Barack Obama's 69.5 million votes in 2008.

Nate then goes onto explain how Democrats did extremely well in the Midwest, with states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (the three states that denied Clinton the victory in 2016), but also in states like Arizona and Texas that haven't really factored into the party's national strategy yet.

He notes that midterm elections aren't necessarily predictive of what will happen in the next presidential election (Nixon, Reagan, Clinton and Obama all handily won re-election despite their party losing big in the midterms). But even with Republican turnout being similarly high for a midterm, he spells out the danger for Trump and the GOP going forward:

This year's results do serve as a warning to Trump in one important sense, however: His base alone will not be enough to win a second term. Throughout the stretch run of the 2018 midterm campaign, Trump and Republicans highlighted highly charged partisan issues, from the Central American migrant caravan to Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court. And Republican voters did indeed turn out in very high numbers: GOP candidates for the House received more than 50 million votes, more than the roughly 45 million they got in 2010.

But it wasn't enough, or even close to enough. Problem No. 1 is that Republicans lost among swing voters: Independent voters went for Democrats by a 12-point margin, and voters who voted for a third-party candidate in 2016 went to Democrats by 13 points.

Trump and Republicans also have Problem No. 2, however: Their base is smaller than the Democratic one. This isn't quite as much of a disadvantage as it might seem; the Democratic base is less cohesive and therefore harder to govern. Democratic voters are sometimes less likely to turn out, although that wasn't a problem this year. And because Republican voters are concentrated in rural, agrarian states, the GOP has a big advantage in the Senate.

Nonetheless, it does mean that Republicans can't win the presidency by turning out their base alone, a strategy that sometimes is available to Democrats. (Obama won re-election in 2012 despite losing independents by 5 points because his base was larger.) In the exit polling era, Republicans have never once had an advantage in party identification among voters in presidential years. George W. Bush's Republicans were able to fight Democrats to a draw in 2004, when party identification was even, but that was the exception rather than the rule.

Sort of as a follow-up to the point about previous presidents winning after a bad midterm, Nate points out the change in tactics each President pursued that helped them recover:

But presidents such as Reagan, Clinton and Obama, who recovered to win re-election after difficult midterms, didn't do it without making some adjustments. Both Reagan and Clinton took a more explicitly bipartisan approach after their midterm losses. Obama at least acknowledged the scope of his defeat, owning up to his "shellacking" after 2010, although an initially bipartisan tone in 2011 had given way to a more combative approach by 2012. All three presidents also benefited from recovering economies — and although the economy is very strong now, there is arguably more downside than upside for Trump (voters have high expectations, but growth is more likely than not to slow a bit).

...

At the least, odds are that Trump needs a course-correction, and it's anyone's guess as to whether he'll be willing to take one. While there's some speculation that Trump could move in a more bipartisan direction, that hasn't really been apparent yet in his actions since the midterms, or at least not on a consistent basis. Instead, he's spent the first fortnight after the midterms firing his attorney general, implying that Democrats were trying to steal elections in Florida, and bragging about how he'd give himself an A-plus rating as president. The next two years will less be a test of Trump's willpower than one of his dexterity and even his humility — not qualities he's been known to have in great measure.

nb4 "but Trump's base!"

Unknownlight · Nov 20, 2018

It was enough to get him elected in the first place. So many people don't vote (both on the left and the right) that things can change on a dime.

Mulciber · Nov 20, 2018

Everybody, everybody, has to show up in 2020. Especially if the economy tanks before then.

ianpm31 · Nov 20, 2018

We should never relax on our laurels but I really believe Trump lost the independent voters especially from swing states such as Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin in which were critical in the 2016 election. Mid-term results in those states gives you a sample of that.

TheOMan · Nov 20, 2018

Unknownlight said:
It was enough to get him elected in the first place.

Did you read the OP?

Medalion · Nov 20, 2018

Trump supporters and trolls who wanna see the world burn

Hollywood Duo · Nov 20, 2018

I've been saying it forever. As long as people show up Trump has absolutely no chance. Demographics are only getting worse for Republicans.

Chojin · Nov 20, 2018

We just started don't become complacent. Voooooooote you jerks! Voooooote.

I love you.

Slayven · Nov 20, 2018

Hollywood Duo said:
I've been saying it forever. As long as people show up Trump has absolutely no chance. Demographics are only getting worse for Republicans.

There was a huge shift with white women this year hardly anyone is talking about.

marrec · Nov 20, 2018

Been saying this, for a minute. Read this analysis earlier and Nate's spot on. Trump's base is loyal, but he brought together a plurality of GOP voters and some swing voters in 2016 and that's not going to happen again in 2020.

Dreams-Visions · Nov 20, 2018

Slayven said:
There was a huge shift with white women this year hardly anyone is talking about.

let's hope that shift remains in 2 years time.

Invisible Cities · Nov 20, 2018

I'm sure our candidate will be imperfect though, so democratic voters will bravely stay home.

Hollywood Duo · Nov 20, 2018

Slayven said:
There was a huge shift with white women this year hardly anyone is talking about.

Dreams-Visions said:
let's hope that shift remains in 2 years time.

If Cryin' Kav is still on the Supreme Court that shift will be there.

Yerffej · Nov 20, 2018

Unknownlight said:
It was enough to get him elected in the first place. So many people don't vote (both on the left and the right) that things can change on a dime.

Wow

rjinaz · Nov 20, 2018

marrec said:
Been saying this, for a minute. Read this analysis earlier and Nate's spot on. Trump's base is loyal, but he brought together a plurality of GOP voters and some swing voters in 2016 and that's not going to happen again in 2020.

The people that thought Trump was an outsider from politics that could shake things up now realize he's the most Republican president there has ever been. He's going to be missing a lot of Moderate voters this go around, and people that usually sit things out but didn't for Trump will likely do just that this time.

2020 is not 2016. And honestly the biggest factor is there being no Hillary Clinton.

Slayven · Nov 20, 2018

Dreams-Visions said:
let's hope that shift remains in 2 years time.

They keep putting up like the heartbeat bills , there is a good chance it will

Commedieu · Nov 20, 2018

Mulciber said:
Everybody, everybody, has to show up in 2020. Especially if the economy tanks before then.

people are pissed off, and people finally understood what politics are. Trump is a cursed blessing, he's getting people to understand that the GOP is a racist shit bag support group thats ruining your life and wants women to have no rights, etc,

That both sides shit isn't going to work anymore.

Ithil · Nov 20, 2018

Unknownlight said:
It was enough to get him elected in the first place. So many people don't vote (both on the left and the right) that things can change on a dime.

No it was not. He won more than just his base in 2016, but in these 2018 elections the Republicans lost those crucial ones, and lost them big.

Josh378 · Nov 20, 2018

Mulciber said:
Everybody, everybody, has to show up in 2020. Especially if the economy tanks before then.

People say the Democrats aren't going to show up again because the midterms were a little disappointed. But if Trump keeps acting like this Democrats aregoing to come back out in droves like this year in 2020.

Digital Dinosaur · Nov 20, 2018

Trump really emboldened republicans in general to go full evil, falling over themselves to suck up to Trump and court his mindless cult of a base.

While this excites and locks in the support of awful human beings, it finally seems to have sufficiently enraged everyone else.

2020 needs the biggest voter mobilization campaign in human history.

Deleted member 41271 · Nov 20, 2018

Slayven said:
There was a huge shift with white women this year hardly anyone is talking about.

Could you detail that? I never heard anything about this - any links? I can't quite find something about this with google o.o

VectorPrime · Nov 20, 2018

Josh378 said:
People say the Democrats aren't going to show up again because the midterms were a little disappointed. But if Trump keeps acting like this Democrats aregoing to come back out in droves like this year in 2020.

What is this chicken shit concern trolling?

marrec · Nov 20, 2018

Slayven said:
There was a huge shift with white women this year hardly anyone is talking about.

I been sayin'

marrec said:
So if the current trend of suburban white women feeling less and less good about Trump continues, the enthusiasm gap may mean little more than a fart in the wind.

Slayven · Nov 20, 2018

Machachan said:
Could you detail that? I never heard anything about this - any links? I can't quite find something about this with google o.o

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/11/politics/women-exit-poll-vote/index.html

daveo42 · Nov 20, 2018

I mean, if progressives could (voter suppression) and did (general apathy) get out and vote, Dems would easily be in charge of the WH and House going forward, with the Senate being more a toss up thanks to more rural, Midwestern voters lean farther right than more populated portions of the country.

Unknownlight · Nov 20, 2018

TheOMan said:
Did you read the OP?

Yeah. It says if this midterm is reflective of how the 2020 elections will go, Trump will lose. That just Trump's core base alone isn't enough to win everything and he needs to sway people on the fence (which applies to basically every election), etc. etc. That's good to know, but I'm not necessarily confident in it, especially since Nate wrote articles saying almost the same thing many times prior to 2016.

Deleted member 41271 · Nov 20, 2018

Slayven said:
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/11/politics/women-exit-poll-vote/index.html

Thank you. :)

Slayven · Nov 20, 2018

Another thing is democrats campaigns have gotten better, especially with the GOTV. They have more folks on the ground knocking on doors, engaging with people.

Avinash117 · Nov 20, 2018

Trump is a bad, bad leader. Most presidents will do a course correction after see how bad the numbers are, but Trump can not take responsibility and need to appease his base will prevent him from expanding his base. Ever since the general election, Trump has never attempted to be strike a more moderate tone. If he did it did not last for a day.

marrec · Nov 20, 2018

Unknownlight said:
Yeah. It says if this midterm is reflective of how the 2020 elections will go, Trump will lose. That just Trump's core base alone isn't enough to win everything and he needs to sway people on the fence (which applies to basically every election), etc. etc. That's good to know, but I'm not necessarily confident in it, especially since Nate wrote articles saying almost the same thing many times prior to 2016.

Trump treated these midterms as a referendum on him. He outright said during nearly every rally to vote as if he was on the ticket.

There isn't much more he can do in 2020 that will stir up his base, they all turned out. The problem for the GOP is that his base is smaller than the Dem base, and the swingers are all swinging heavily to the Dem side and have been for nearly two years.

There's nothing so far to indicate that these shifts will change. It's not an indictment of the GOP, but rather of Trump.

Armaros · Nov 20, 2018

Unknownlight said:
Yeah. It says if this midterm is reflective of how the 2020 elections will go, Trump will lose. That just Trump's core base alone isn't enough to win everything and he needs to sway people on the fence (which applies to basically every election), etc. etc. That's good to know, but I'm not necessarily confident in it, especially since Nate wrote articles saying almost the same thing many times prior to 2016.

Trump won by barely a couple thousand votes in three specific states.

All three of those swung back hard to the Democrats in the midterms.

shnurgleton · Nov 20, 2018

Vote every time you have the chance to

If you have a special election, vote. If your town or city or county has a vote coming up, vote. And dear God please vote in 2020, which I have now dubbed the Hindsight Election

jviggy43 · Nov 20, 2018

Unfortunately due to gerrymandering and voter suppression, along with large parts of the population not voting, it is enough. This was the entire narrative in 16, "he doesn't have the demographics", was repeated over and over again. And while that might be true it doesn't necessarily mean all those demographics will be coming out to vote (if not outright suppressed from voting).

Trey · Nov 20, 2018

Josh378 said:
People say the Democrats aren't going to show up again because the midterms were a little disappointed. But if Trump keeps acting like this Democrats aregoing to come back out in droves like this year in 2020.

Democrats can't wait to vote against Trump. Turnout is going to be tremendous is 2020.

gozu · Nov 20, 2018

Aaron (Ay ay ron)

The worst thing in the world is that republicans liked Trump more and more as time went on after the elections, as opposed to less and less. This demonstrates how impossible it is to change their minds and how facts have basically 0 influence on them.

We should have had a 60/40 vote split, minimum in this past election. And that's being extremely generous to Trump.

The fact that we didn't is extremely worrisome.

marrec · Nov 20, 2018

jviggy43 said:
Unfortunately due to gerrymandering and voter suppression, along with large parts of the population not voting, it is enough.

The most recent midterms proved that it currently isn't enough.

FeistyBoots · Nov 20, 2018

I don't give a fuck about polls. VOTE DEMOCRATIC IN EVERY ELECTION. From dogcatcher to president, exercise your fucking right. No more excuses and no more complacency. Conservatives must be driven into the sea electorally. DESTROY THEM.

Penguin · Nov 20, 2018

I hope this at least puts to bed that we need to placate to his base whenever they do or say something horrible because we need their support to win.

Hollywood Duo · Nov 20, 2018

jviggy43 said:
Unfortunately due to gerrymandering and voter suppression, along with large parts of the population not voting, it is enough. This was the entire narrative in 16, "he doesn't have the demographics", was repeated over and over again. And while that might be true it doesn't necessarily mean all those demographics will be coming out to vote (if not outright suppressed from voting).

Explain to me how gerrymandering has an effect on a presidential election.

Josh378 · Nov 20, 2018

Trey said:
Democrats can't wait to vote against Trump. Turnout is going to be tremendous is 2020.

Anybody who says that Trump is going to win 2020 is crazy. Unless Democrats pull out somebody really terrible, I mean worse than Hillary, I don't see Trump winning a second term at all.

jviggy43 · Nov 20, 2018

Hollywood Duo said:
Explain to me how gerrymandering has an effect on a presidential election.

Im speaking in general terms for voting for republicans in general. They shouldn't have the base to get them elected. But that doesn't matter.

Yams · Nov 20, 2018

If white women stay mad at him I am not sure how he can win

Deleted member 176 · Nov 20, 2018

Unknownlight said:
It was enough to get him elected in the first place. So many people don't vote (both on the left and the right) that things can change on a dime.

It wasn't. A historically unpopular candidate made less popular by Russian interference helped him pull in a lot of moderates. Remember how much "he's a moderate" /"he's for liberal causes and LGBT" /"he's not a warhawk" /"give him a chance" bs we had to endure in those first few months?

Mulciber · Nov 20, 2018

Commedieu said:
people are pissed off, and people finally understood what politics are. Trump is a cursed blessing, he's getting people to understand that the GOP is a racist shit bag support group thats ruining your life and wants women to have no rights, etc,

That both sides shit isn't going to work anymore.

It certainly looks that way right now, and it fills me with hope. I just hope the trend continues. It's a little tough not to think back on 06-08 and remember I felt the same way back then, but I'm not letting that kill my hope.

Josh378 said:
People say the Democrats aren't going to show up again because the midterms were a little disappointed. But if Trump keeps acting like this Democrats aregoing to come back out in droves like this year in 2020.

Personally, I was pleased with the mid-terms. I don't think we could have done much else. I'm not saying I don't think people will show up in 2020; it's not a prediction. I'm just saying that we must.

Hollywood Duo · Nov 20, 2018

Yams said:
If white women stay mad at him I am not sure how he can win

Women don't forget anything. No one is forgiving Trump who was actually mad at him.

Kirblar · Nov 20, 2018

Slayven said:
There was a huge shift with white women this year hardly anyone is talking about.

Hey, I posted like 3 topics on the insane 20-point gender gap we were seeing in the polling throughout 2018! :)

jviggy43 said:
Unfortunately due to gerrymandering and voter suppression, along with large parts of the population not voting, it is enough. This was the entire narrative in 16, "he doesn't have the demographics", was repeated over and over again. And while that might be true it doesn't necessarily mean all those demographics will be coming out to vote (if not outright suppressed from voting).

It's literally not. Elections nationalized around Trump's statewide/local approval rating. If the same pattern were to play out in 2020 vs Generic Democrat, he just straight up loses because the blue wall snaps back and ices him out.

Double 0 · Nov 20, 2018

His base was never enough.

It's his base and voter suppression.

Mulciber · Nov 20, 2018

gozu said:
The worst thing in the world is that republicans liked Trump more and more as time went on after the elections, as opposed to less and less. This demonstrates how impossible it is to change their minds and how facts have basically 0 influence on them.

We should have had a 60/40 vote split, minimum in this past election. And that's being extremely generous to Trump.

The fact that we didn't is extremely worrisome.

I think about this a lot. His approval rating has gone up with them since getting elected. It's not good, even if he doesn't get elected in 2020, because it represents a huge shift in mindset.

Josh378 · Nov 20, 2018

Hollywood Duo said:
Women don't forget anything.

That needs to be quoted as a dictionary definition truth. The stuff my wife can remember that I can't, I just feel embarrassed.

Deleted member 6730 · Nov 20, 2018

Making a Trump a one term president to spite McConnell. And also because he's terrible and literally anyone is better.

Nate Silver: Trump's Base Isn't Enough

I’m seeing double here!

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