Wkd Box Office - 11•16-18•18 - Beasts 2 not as Fantastic with $62M Domestic. Venom nearing $800M WW.

Kewlmyc · Nov 19, 2018

Fantastic Beast 2 is essentially just Deathly Hallows Part 1. All set up.

The difference is that you know DH Part 1 is all set up going in and have 6 movies of getting to know the characters before it. Fantastic Beast only has one movie before it and they retcon most of the shit in it.

Noobie · Nov 19, 2018

Seeya said:
China Update: Venom had a better 2nd weekend than Infinity War in local currency the exchange rates are why in came in slightly under. Venom did 51.2M over the weekend in China against the 54.1M of IW. Venom is (likely) to start semi consistently beating IW in daily tracking starting on Monday. For week 3 IW had a 67.8% overall drop week over in China.

Using BOM for IW and JWFK and Venoms opening and Gavins stuff for Venom (there exists minor variance between trackers due to fluctuating exchange rates)

Venom 3-Day
Saturday
Friday $12.29M / $165.94M
Saturday - $23.14M / $189.03M
Sunday $15.67M / $204.72M

Opening Weekend including Thursday previews and midnights
Infinity War $200.5M
Venom $110.3M (other places report 111M, but BOM say 110.3M?)
Jurrasic World FK

2nd Weekends with weekend over weekend drop from opening
IW 54.1M -71.7%
Venom 51.2M -53.5%
Jurassic World FK 34.1M -69.4%

10 Day Total
Infinity War 301.4M
Venom 205.5M
Jurassic World FK 203.6M

Lifetime
Infinity War 359.5M (+58.1M)
Jurassic World FK 260. M (+57.6M)

EDIT: I'm not sure if Gavin rounds, he might just chop off all the other digits. That would explain why he's slightly lower than BOR for the weekend (51.1M v 51.2) and the total (204.72M v 207.1M). I'll keep that in mind for the future.

Noobie, I'll make that post now my dude. :)

Thank you for all the details, but i think maybe i was not very clear in my question. I was saying how are you confident that Venom will reach 900M Worldwide?
Right now Venom is at 780M.. With this week result in USA, its quite clear it will not do more than 5M in USA. and add another 10M from Overseas. So it needs another (780+5 + 10 = 795M) 105M from China to reach 900M worldwide. Which i do not expect to happen.

Mobu · Nov 19, 2018

Fantastic Beasts was a mistake, should have been movies about a new student trio in 2018 or something, atleast you wouldnt have to retcon shit to give fanservice

AndyVirus · Nov 19, 2018

KillstealWolf said:
From my prediction on this:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/fa...contest-venom-fantastic-beasts-aquaman.60909/

VENOM DOMESTIC OW: $96.0M
FANTASTIC BEASTS 2 DOMESTIC OW: $55.0M
AQUAMAN DOMESTIC OW: $43.0M

Overestimated Venom, Underestimated Fantastic Beasts, different from what others probably thought that would play out though.

I forgot about this. Doing better than I thought. 8m off so far.

THEVOID · Nov 19, 2018

Bohemian Rhapsody

Is doing much better then I thought it would. And Overlord is doing worse then I expected.

Bus-TEE · Nov 19, 2018

While WB can't happy with that three day opening number from FB2 if this can crawl to $750m or so worldwide through the holiday season I still think they notch that up as a win. If anything this might just push Warners to try and convince JK that the Wizarding World franchise needs to be expanded to other areas of the Potterverse and perahps even an event TV series too. If it's good enough for Disney and Star Wars it's good enough for ol' Harry too.

Rvaan · Nov 19, 2018

Bus-TEE said:
While WB can't happy with that three day opening number from FB2 if this can crawl to $750m or so worldwide through the holiday season I still think they notch that up as a win. If anything this might just push Warners to try and convince JK that the Wizarding World franchise needs to be expanded to other areas of the Potterverse and perahps even an event TV series too. If it's good enough for Disney and Star Wars it's good enough for ol' Harry too.

Set a TV show at one of the other magical schools and air it on the CW. Granted the CW already has a TV show about magical beings at school but whatever.

Bus-TEE · Nov 19, 2018

Rvaan said:
Set a TV show at one of the other magical schools and air it on the CW. Granted the CW already has a TV show about magical beings at school but whatever.

It's way too big an IP for the CW. If anything it would be an event series on HBO or whatever Warnermedia's new SVOD platform is.

Rvaan · Nov 19, 2018

Bus-TEE said:
It's way too big an IP for the CW. If anything it would be an event series on HBO or whatever Warnermedia's new SVOD platform is.

I said CW because I forgot WB owned HBO. That makes more sense. Put on HBO but let the CW people do the casting

DreamsthatFade · Nov 19, 2018

Really didn't like Fantastic Beasts 2. Went late at night with my boyfriend and checked out pretty fast. I spent the middle hour of the movie sleeping on his shoulder lol

shintoki · Nov 19, 2018

Bus-TEE said:
While WB can't happy with that three day opening number from FB2 if this can crawl to $750m or so worldwide through the holiday season I still think they notch that up as a win. If anything this might just push Warners to try and convince JK that the Wizarding World franchise needs to be expanded to other areas of the Potterverse and perahps even an event TV series too. If it's good enough for Disney and Star Wars it's good enough for ol' Harry too.

750mil is cutting it close though to the 600mil death zone where stuff like JL and TF5 lay. We could be seeing a sub 700mil for the next Potter flick then. Its still profitable, but studios clearly are not happy in that area.

If the legs collapse on this one, the next is the last for FB. Before the eventual reboot or sequel some 5 to 10 years down the line.

Carthago Delenda Est · Nov 19, 2018

Bus-TEE said:
While WB can't happy with that three day opening number from FB2 if this can crawl to $750m or so worldwide through the holiday season I still think they notch that up as a win. If anything this might just push Warners to try and convince JK that the Wizarding World franchise needs to be expanded to other areas of the Potterverse and perahps even an event TV series too. If it's good enough for Disney and Star Wars it's good enough for ol' Harry too.

Serialized TV series about Harry's kids attending Hogwarts. One season per year. Let the money rain in.

kswiston · Nov 19, 2018

shintoki said:
750mil is cutting it close though to the 600mil death zone where stuff like JL and TF5 lay. We could be seeing a sub 700mil for the next Potter flick then. Its still profitable, but studios clearly are not happy in that area.

You have a chance of seeing sub 700 on this one.

Certinfy · Nov 19, 2018

As someone who hated the first Fantastic Beasts, I thought this one was so much better. Just more interesting with a much better story and nowhere near as boring.

Seeya · Nov 19, 2018

Re China

If Venom is at 207 in China as BOR says then it should be at 213-215 after the Monday gets factored. Mon-Thur stretch will push it around another 20M+ getting it to 227M before the weekend. Keep in mind that China tabulates their weeks as Monday to Sunday, where as we look at them as Friday to Thursday.

Regardless Venom will be closing in on 230M in China after 14 days/2 week's. Almost matching (10M or below) the entire run of Age of Ultron (241M).

It will pass Age of Ultron on day 15 or 16, the upcoming Friday—Sat. It may pass Jurassic World 2 (261M) over the same period or as early as the Monday though that benchmark is more likely to fall slightly further into next week.

Hayeya · Nov 19, 2018

Venom will be the hero of the sony cinematic universe, no need for spidey it seems.
Venom vs carnage is next.

Barrel_Roll · Nov 19, 2018

The Kree said:
Venom reaching for that Transformers status. Impressive.

Meanwhile Star Wars films get pulled after one or two weeks, smh.

CopyOfACopy · Nov 19, 2018

Gonna echo the thoughts on Fantastic Beasts 2 being just ok,

it wasn't really what I was wanting from a sequel

the motivations and emotions of the 4 main characters changed from the last film due to off screen action that we are only told about

Grindlwald / Dumbledore plot and new characters take up much of the run time

Final "fight" comes out of nowhere than the movie ends

Lost a ton of the heart and fun from the first film

ill checkout the next one because I <3 Jacob Kowalski but this franchise is on thin ice

Bus-TEE · Nov 19, 2018

kswiston said:
You have a chance of seeing sub 700 on this one.

That would be a tough pill for WB to swallow.

Especially if Aquaman ends up being a little soft once everything is said and done.

Seeya · Nov 19, 2018

CopyOfACopy said:
Gonna echo the thoughts on Fantastic Beasts 2 being just ok,

it wasn't really what I was wanting from a sequel

the motivations and emotions of the 4 main characters changed from the last film due to off screen action that we are only told about

Grindlwald / Dumbledore plot and new characters take up much of the run time

Final "fight" comes out of nowhere than the movie ends

Lost a ton of the heart and fun from the first film

ill checkout the next one because I <3 Jacob Kowalski but this franchise is on thin ice

Didn't the first one take a lot of flack for Newt as the protagonist and how whimsical it was? Sure seems like they over corrected. I would have wanted a FB2 that doubled down on what made the first good.

kswiston · Nov 19, 2018

Bus-TEE said:
That would be a tough pill for WB to swallow.

Especially if Aquaman ends up being a little soft once everything is said and done.

I think just under or just over 700M seems to be the probable scenario, but we will know more in a week.

Deleted member 46493 · Nov 19, 2018

It appears as if it a film clicks with the Chinese audience, everyone and their mother goes see it. A friend of mine who teaches there said that for the Warcraft movie because a few people talked about it almost the whole class/year went even those who've never touched a game in their life. Can you imagine that happening in US schools?

kswiston · Nov 19, 2018

sotojuan said:
It appears as if it a film clicks with the Chinese audience, everyone and their mother goes see it. A friend of mine who teaches there said that for the Warcraft movie because a few people talked about it almost the whole class/year went even those who've never touched a game in their life. Can you imagine that happening in US schools?

That happened with The Hunger Games.

kswiston · Nov 19, 2018

Seeya said:
Re China

If Venom is at 207 in China as BOR says then it should be at 213-215 after the Monday gets factored. Mon-Thur stretch will push it around another 20M+ getting it to 227M before the weekend. Keep in mind that China tabulates their weeks as Monday to Sunday, where as we look at them as Friday to Thursday.

Regardless Venom will be closing in on 230M in China after 14 days/2 week's. Almost matching the entire run of Age of Ultron (241M).

It will pass Age of Ultron on day 15 or 16, the upcoming sat/sun. It may pass
Jurassic World 2 (261M) over the same period or as early as the Monday though that benchmark is more likely to fall later into next week.

Venom was ~$5M in China on Monday, so Mon-Thurs won't be 20M+.

DevilMayGuy · Nov 19, 2018

FB2 kind of sucked? I wouldn't mind if they quit on this failed foray into the wizarding world and went back to the drawing board. Overlord was great, so I'm sad to see it bomb. Seeing Widows this Wednesday, maybe positive WoM will help it, but regardless it sucks to see apparent quality films fail to resonate with audiences. Venom keeps on trucking, JL's total is a turd in the wind. Dragon Tattoo sequel's performance is sad but deserved.

cjelly · Nov 19, 2018

Fantastic Beasts 3 will be Netflix-bound at this rate.

SmarmySmurf · Nov 19, 2018

Glad Beasts is down. Fuck Depp, and fuck Rowling.

DevilMayGuy · Nov 19, 2018

Calm Waterfall said:
How does FB2 cost 200 million? It does not make sense.

Take all the expenses involved with a typical Harry Potter film, add a shitload more CGI, with crazy monsters and exploding skybeam battles beyond the scope of the Battle for Hogwarts because apparently people need more and more from each one of these films, and then wrap it in a period film setting with all of the trappings of such films and all of a sudden your budget is waaaaay out of proportion.

WastemanLoso · Nov 19, 2018

Will Aquaman make more than Venom?

Dysun · Nov 19, 2018

WastemanLoso said:
Will Aquaman make more than Venom?

I doubt it, at this rate Venom is going to beat almost all of the DCEU movies

Schlorgan · Nov 19, 2018

WastemanLoso said:
Will Aquaman make more than Venom?

I don't think it's a guarantee that Aquaman makes more than Justice League.

DreamsthatFade · Nov 19, 2018

NoMoreTrolls said:
Take all the expenses involved with a typical Harry Potter film, add a shitload more CGI, with crazy monsters and exploding skybeam battles beyond the scope of the Battle for Hogwarts because apparently people need more and more from each one of these films, and then wrap it in a period film setting with all of the trappings of such films and all of a sudden your budget is waaaaay out of proportion.

Yeah I was already eyerolling through the whole opening set piece. I was not engaged at all/did not care about what happened to any of the characters and it was so predictable what was gonna happen. And it looks like they blew a ton of money on that. I agree with fuck Johnny Depp. Can't stand him any more lol

Deleted member 40133 · Nov 19, 2018

Complete anecdotal, but thought it was interesting. My wife is a massive HP fan, even has a tattoo on her upper arm. When I mentioned that the second fantastic beasts didn't make as much as the first she was not surprised at all. Basically she said HP fans were hungry for something, and when there was they all pounced. But at the end of the day it's a Harry Potter movie without Hogwarts. When I said they may not like make the other five sequals, she basically guffawed at the idea you'd need that many to finish the intended story. We did see the first on Lenin theater, seeing second tonight

ElBoxy · Nov 19, 2018

THEVOID said:
Bohemian Rhapsody

Is doing much better then I thought it would. And Overlord is doing worse then I expected.

People just want to see actors do Queen karaoke.

WastemanLoso · Nov 19, 2018

Dysun said:
I doubt it, at this rate Venom is going to beat almost all of the DCEU movies

Schlorgan said:
I don't think it's a guarantee that Aquaman makes more than Justice League.

Is this still true?

Playco Armboy · Nov 19, 2018

WastemanLoso said:
Will Aquaman make more than Venom?

What do you think?

Deleted member 46641 · Nov 19, 2018

kswiston said:
Can You Ever Forgive Me? is performing really softly for a film that has one of the frontrunners for the big acting awards this year.

The Academy is going to have that same problem this year where all of the films that critics and their voters raved over made no money.

A Star is born is probably going to do well because it doesn't have that problem

Dabanton · Nov 19, 2018

Widows should hopefully have legs. Great movie.

Starphanluke · Nov 19, 2018

I'm still nervous for Bumblebee. I want that movie to do well.

Seeya · Nov 19, 2018

kswiston said:
Venom was ~$5M in China on Monday, so Mon-Thurs won't be 20M+.

5.13M $ /35.2M ¥

20M+ is possible but you'll notice that I only added 20M to the total. FB2 had a very bad Monday hold, sliding to third. In theory FB2 could be getting its screens slashed through this period, which will buff Venom. Venom being able to do 20M or +20M is predicated on a few things (like a flat or bump Tuesday, screens for FB2 being slashed). But it is possible. Even on the scenario where mom of those things happen, Venom should get close to 20M. IW did 16.4 with worse drops and a lower Monday.

It depends on how Venoms week 1 holds are reflective in it's 2nd weekday holds which we can't see until Tuesdays numbers. 76% compared to 68% for Venom. It's reasonable that Venom will drop less than Infinity War did over this period. Venom is currently ahead by 0.13M from the Monday at least according to the chart I have.

Schlorgan · Nov 19, 2018

WastemanLoso said:
Is this still true?

If it is, that's not a great start. Justice League opened to $93m.

That would be the lowest opening of the DCEU.

That would put it in Star Trek Beyond territory.

carlsojo · Nov 19, 2018

WastemanLoso said:
Is this still true?

Y i k e s

feyder · Nov 19, 2018

SmarmySmurf said:
Glad Beasts is down. Fuck Depp, and fuck Rowling.

Yup. Was a MASSIVE Harry Potter fan up until the last HP film came out. But with JK Rowling's tweets (and likes), her and David Yates' defense of Johnny Depp, all the retconning, and David Yates' horrible job on the franchise in general, I am SO glad it's not doing great.

Rvaan · Nov 19, 2018

That Aquaman number is probably going up. Will it reach JL? Probably not but it is not going to come in 30M under JL.

kswiston · Nov 19, 2018

That wasn't studio tracking. Just boxoffice's prediction. We will get studio tracking 3 weeks before release.

Adventureracing · Nov 19, 2018

Bohemian rhapsody is having an insane run in Australia. It dropped just 7% in its second week and it's per screen average is as high in its 3rd week as it was in its 1st (and it's 3rd week average is higher than FB2!).

Actually musicals in general are dominating the Australian box office at the moment. Right now for the year mamma Mia and pitch perfect 2 are in 10th and 11th (ahead of the likes of solo, venom, mission impossible etc). Bohemian rhapsody and a Star is born will end up 6th and 7th respectively at the end of their runs (both will fall a little short of JW2).

Last year BATB was the 3rd highest grossing movie and the greatest showman was 5th (just behind Thor ragnorak by like 200K). That's following in from the success of la la land the year before.

I'm curious to see what else we get from this genre
Going forward. Certainly here in Australia it's massive at the moment.

Seeya · Nov 19, 2018

How much does Aquaman cost? That might be fine given that it has the holiday season to fall back on. I wonder how it's legs will actually be though.

Mcfrank · Nov 19, 2018

WastemanLoso said:
Is this still true?

Limited-Edition-Aquaman-Movie-Poster-entourage-9926672-594-446.jpg

Believe

Slaythe · Nov 19, 2018

Slayven said:
Depp continuing his streak as worse returning Hollywood actor

For once it's not even his fault. He didn't phone it in.

Rvaan · Nov 19, 2018

Seeya said:
How much does Aquaman cost? That might be fine given that it has the holiday season to fall back on. I wonder how it's legs will actually be though.

I want to say it cost $160M.

Wkd Box Office - 11•16-18•18 - Beasts 2 not as Fantastic with $62M Domestic. Venom nearing $800M WW.

One Winged Slayer

Prophet of Regret

Self-requested ban

User requested account closure

User requested account closure

User requested account closure

▲ Legend ▲

The Wise Ones