Via Slate's Chief Political Correspondent.
With midterms over, 2020 begins.
Democrats desire for diversity is increasingly apparent. Democratic voters nominated an unprecedented 180 female candidates in House primaries, as well as 133 people of color, including Native American and Muslim American candidates. Democrats also nominated 21 openly LGBT candidates for Congress. For the first time in the party's history, white men were a minority in the House Democratic candidate pool. And while election officials are still tallying votes in several states, the Democrats' incoming class of House members reflects the diversity of their candidate pool.
All of this brings obvious takeaways for the 2020 presidential race. Calls for Democrats to nominate Beto O'Rourke, former Vice President Joe Biden, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, or Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown make sense—these are talented, charismatic politicians who might improve the party's appeal with downscale whites. But they ignore or don't take seriously the clear preference for diverse candidates among Democratic primary voters. Assuming they run, their odds of winning aren't low—Sanders was the runner-up in 2016 and Biden is a popular figure in the party—but they aren't as high as they might appear either.
The opposite is true for the cohort of white women and people of color who are clearly in the race for president. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren may have stumbled with her attempt to settle questions about her heritage, but she's still in the running. Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota may be unknown on the national stage, but they are skilled politicians with demonstrated appeal to rural and working-class whites. The same is true for Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who hasn't made the same moves toward running as her peers but who might appeal to Democratic primary voters for her progressive politics, clear appeal to working-class whites (she won 60 percent of white union households in her re-election bid this year), and history-making potential: She would be the first openly LGBTQ president.
If there's anyone who sits at the intersection of what Democratic voters seem to want in a candidate, it's Sen. Kamala Harris of California. A nonwhite woman, she looks like the most active and loyal parts of the Democratic base. A black woman with South Asian heritage, she would make history as president. She's close to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party (but not so progressive that she doesn't have real opposition on the left, tied to her controversial record as state attorney general) and has built herself up as a tough, unapologetic opponent of the administration (although she has voted for some of Trump's nominees). Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, likewise, would satisfy an apparently strong desire from Democratic voters to elevate a candidate of color to the White House. (This desire is why you also shouldn't dismiss former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, who is also considering a bid for the nomination and has support from top Obama allies.)
Indeed, there's no way to answer the only question that really matters for the 2020 race—who can beat Trump?
With midterms over, 2020 begins.
