Wkd Box Office - 11•9-11•18 - $66M for Grinch. Dragon Tattoo bombs. Venom > Justice League WW.

Seeya · Nov 13, 2018

NealMcCauley said:
Looks like the other studios were right, and Girl... ended up 6th under Star with $7.8M.

I saw the movie. It was genre sclock and not really in keeping with the original 3 but enjoyable. I can see why it hasn't found an audience, but it's a bit of a shame.

They should have gone for maximum desperation and straight up called it 'The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo: In the Spiders Web'.

NealMcCauley · Nov 13, 2018

Seeya said:
I saw the movie. It was genre sclock and not really in keeping with the original 3 but enjoyable. I can see why it hasn't found an audience, but it's a bit of a shame.

They should have gone for maximum desperation and straight up called it 'The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo: In the Spiders Web'.

Personally I always thought Sony overestimated the books/Lisbeth's popularity. I still remember Fincher joking in DT's bonuses how the movie was definitely without a doubt gonna be bigger than da Vinci Code.

If they called it that someone in the Midwest probably would have sued the studio for falsely advertising Spider-Man.

kswiston · Nov 13, 2018

Seeya said:
Edit: fixed up the post to better reflect my intended tone. :)

I'm saving there exists scenarios where China doesn't quite hit those numbers but table scraps from the rest of the world going over 600m still gets it there.

You predicted 750m - 800m when the weekend numbers for China came out and I felt that was very conservative by about 50m on each end, regardless of anything we can both agree that Venom is going over 800m.

The point bringing that up is, '—No one is predicting—' might as well be the tag line on the films poster.

Gavin was predicting 200m in China after the OW. That seemed too low. Others projecting low 200m seemed low. All of them are now saying that JW2 (with conversion btw) is in danger. Out earning the first Monday (that was a holiday) for JW2 is a bit more than just 'above JW2' even with the 8% devaluation (made posts about that earlier).

Furthermore, this isn't like when I made the case of Black Panther breaking 700m. There's no line in the sand here. The scenario is still a distant one even if I'm more confident that about the probability that Venom can reach 600m without China, than I assume you are.

No one predicted Venom to do what it has been doing, in any market. We'll know more soon; until then we can enjoy the ride :P

FWIW, the $750M floor was more the scenario where Venom played out like Black Panther in China. I didn't think was going to be the case. Just a realistic worst case scenario based on that opening. I figured slightly less than $600M worldwide thanks to Fantastics Beasts 2 and the fact that international grosses tend to trail off quicker than domestic, and around $200M in China. Over Deadpool 1 and GotG1.

However, we can probably bump that up to $825M+ now. Over Wonder Woman. Fantastic Beasts might not do too hot in China, and Venom is holding well on the weekdays. We'll see if $850M is a realistic outside goal on Sunday, but Venom seems pretty likely to hit $225M in China.

Seeya · Nov 13, 2018

NealMcCauley said:
Personally I always thought Sony overestimated the books/Lisbeth's popularity. I still remember Fincher joking in DT's bonuses how the movie was definitely without a doubt gonna be bigger than da Vinci Code.

If they called it that someone in the Midwest probably would have sued the studio for falsely advertising Spider-Man.

Agreed on over estimating the characters innate appeal. The entire reason we got this film years late is because Sony already felt that they hadn't gotten the expected returns with the previous team.

I'm surprised that people felt that she was able to be a big draw. The content itself is too dark to ever get lasting mainstream attachment. Plus everything was given away in the trailers, so there wasn't that sense of mystery and a puzzle that fans of the series latch on to.

Edit: Wait wait wait. Am I mixing up the (superior) Swedish trilogy of films with US versions of the sequels that don't exist???? Did Sony never get beyond The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo from 2011? The fuck are they doing adapting Spiders Web then!

OfficerRob · Nov 13, 2018

Is ASIB going to crawl to 200 mil domestic?

Scarecrow · Nov 13, 2018

I thought Sony was getting on the 'tough girl' train, following Fury Road. Atomic Blond, Peppermint, etc with Spiders Web.

Meows · Nov 13, 2018

OfficerRob said:
Is ASIB going to crawl to 200 mil domestic?

I think it will. Especially since Libatique hinted at an extended version yesterday that might come to theaters at some point.

Seeya · Nov 13, 2018

Scarecrow said:
I thought Sony was getting on the 'tough girl' train, following Fury Road. Atomic Blond, Peppermint, etc with Spiders Web.

If their aim was to draw people in, why jump to the most recent book, that isn't tied to the popular originals, received criticism, and wasn't by the original author.

That seems like a waste of content. At the time the Sony adaptation of The Girl who played with fire had a script that was reportedly 'quite different' from the book. They could have had it both ways.

Rvaan · Nov 14, 2018

Scarecrow said:
I thought Sony was getting on the 'tough girl' train, following Fury Road. Atomic Blond, Peppermint, etc with Spiders Web.

I'm probably the only one here who has seen all 4 movies on that list. One of those movies is great. Two of them are meh with some great style/ look. The last one is such fucking trash that it does not deserve to mention in the same breath as the others.

NealMcCauley · Nov 14, 2018

Initial Instant Family reviews are more positive than I was expecting. Seems like Byrne as usual steals the show.

Seeya said:
Agreed on over estimating the characters innate appeal. The entire reason we got this film years late is because Sony already felt that they hadn't gotten the expected returns with the previous team.

I'm surprised that people felt that she was able to be a big draw. The content itself is too dark to ever get lasting mainstream attachment. Plus everything was given away in the trailers, so there wasn't that sense of mystery and a puzzle that fans of the series latch on to.

Edit: Wait wait wait. Am I mixing up the (superior) Swedish trilogy of films with US versions of the sequels that don't exist???? Did Sony never get beyond The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo from 2011? The fuck are they doing adapting Spiders Web then!

Someone at Sony must have really wanted a book series turned into a prestige franchise after the first two da Vinci movies became instant punchlines. I vaguely remember hearing the sequel script was a combination of books 2 and 3 with a ton of stuff cut out. I never read the books though.

OrangeAtlas · Nov 14, 2018

Rvaan said:
I'm probably the only one here who has seen all 4 movies on that list. One of those movies is great. Two of them are meh with some great style/ look. The last one is such fucking trash that it does not deserve to mention in the same breath as the others.

Geez didn't realize you hated Fury Road so much.

Zygnosis · Nov 14, 2018

Rvaan said:
I'm probably the only one here who has seen all 4 movies on that list. One of those movies is great. Two of them are meh with some great style/ look. The last one is such fucking trash that it does not deserve to mention in the same breath as the others.

I have seen all of them as well. Fury Road is awesome, Atomic Blonde decent, Spider's Web is ok and Peppermint is trash.

Seeya · Nov 15, 2018

Venom has been coming in high on projections pretty consistently, so we'll see if it can capture the 2nd week. It seems likely that Venom will get back a good chunk of the screens it lost if FB2 underperforms. The debute is already lagging a little bit.

JW2 7 day total 169.5m
AoU 7 day total 155m
Venom (projected) 7 day 153m

JW2 2nd Weekend 34.1m/203.6
AoU 2nd Weekend 38.2m/188.2
Venom (projected) 36-41m/189-194m

JW2 lifetime 261m
AoU lifetime 241m

Right now it's looking like Venom stands a chance of potentially settling around 250m in China, but if it does go higher on the weekend (somewhat likely) it will recapture screens from FB2 on top of that, leading to it almost certainly being able to take out Guardians 2 WW and perhaps even homecoming

Honestly, I don't get why so many people (mostly on other sites I was looking at) were thinking so low for Venom once the combo of the opening and WOM hit. It would have had to dropped hard out of nowhere with no real reason. We'd already seen it play excellently with audiences in every other major market and It did very well over the three day (which is important considering how reactive China can be with the use of social media).

broncobuster · Nov 15, 2018

If nothing else, Venom has kinda solidified the idea that Youtube views are a decent gauge of BO excitement for upcoming blockbusters. Off that, Detective Pikachu is at 31M+ views on the main channel alone. Yeah.

Zygnosis · Nov 15, 2018

broncobuster said:
If nothing else, Venom has kinda solidified the idea that Youtube views are a decent gauge of BO excitement for upcoming blockbusters. Off that, Detective Pikachu is at 31M+ views on the main channel alone. Yeah.

I've seen really huge interest in Detective Pikachu on the media I work at. That surprised me a lot.

Seeya · Nov 15, 2018

Zygnosis said:
I've seen really huge interest in Detective Pikachu on the media I work at. That surprised me a lot.

At least right now it has similar metrics to Avengers 3 in China.

Noobie · Nov 15, 2018

have we got any numbers for Wednesday for Venom? Is there any site for Chinese Box Office?

Mr. Pointy · Nov 15, 2018

So if we give Detective Pikachu a couple more days of social media tracking, could we have a pretty good idea of how much it could make on its OWs or what other films it could perform similarly to? It releasing very close to Avengers 4 is going to affect it a bit, of course.

Seeya · Nov 15, 2018

Noobie said:
have we got any numbers for Wednesday for Venom? Is there any site for Chinese Box Office?

Wed 9.93m

http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/daily/

cjelly · Nov 15, 2018

broncobuster said:
If nothing else, Venom has kinda solidified the idea that Youtube views are a decent gauge of BO excitement for upcoming blockbusters. Off that, Detective Pikachu is at 31M+ views on the main channel alone. Yeah.

That trailer is being run as an ad so not necessarily a true reflection of interest.

RolandGunner · Nov 15, 2018

Fantastic Beasts did very well in its international opening night. Numbers are 50%+ ahead of the FB1 in key markets like France and Holland. 15% of FB1 in South Korea.

https://deadline.com/2018/11/fantas...a-global-international-box-office-1202502584/

Seeya · Nov 15, 2018

Venom is coming in so strong for Friday that it's projected to make 300m-350 yuan over the weekend (per Gavin).

Here what Infinity War did in week 2

Avengers: Infinity War - ¥346.77M / $54.75M

People better prepare themselves for Spider-Man Homecoming falling if that range comes to pass.

Noobie · Nov 15, 2018

Seeya said:
Venom is coming in so strong for Friday that it's projected to make 300m-350 yuan over the weekend (per Gavin).

Here what Infinity War did in week 2

Avengers: Infinity War - ¥346.77M / $54.75M

People better prepare themselves for Spider-Man Homecoming falling if that range comes to pass.

isnt it quite a bit higher than earlier weekend estimate of US$36 - US$41 M?

Seeya · Nov 15, 2018

Noobie said:
isnt it quite a bit higher than earlier weekend estimate of US$36 - US$41 M?

Its basically one deviation higher. It would be 43.2 - 50.4m at current exchange rates.

Venom is currently at 153.86M so it could break 200m over the weekend. Jurassic World 2 did 202.6m after it's 2nd weekend

El Bombastico · Nov 15, 2018

NealMcCauley said:
Personally I always thought Sony overestimated the books/Lisbeth's popularity. I still remember Fincher joking in DT's bonuses how the movie was definitely without a doubt gonna be bigger than da Vinci Code.

If they called it that someone in the Midwest probably would have sued the studio for falsely advertising Spider-Man.

I just think the movie came out too late. six years ago, when the book series was still fresh in everyone's minds I think it would've done okay.

Principate · Nov 15, 2018

Seeya said:
Venom is coming in so strong for Friday that it's projected to make 300m-350 yuan over the weekend (per Gavin).

Here what Infinity War did in week 2

Avengers: Infinity War - ¥346.77M / $54.75M

People better prepare themselves for Spider-Man Homecoming falling if that range comes to pass.

If that happens get ready for the hot take "Is the MCU hindering Spiderman" think pieces.....

Seeya · Nov 15, 2018

Principate said:
If that happens get ready for the hot take "Is the MCU hindering Spiderman" think pieces.....

Spider-Man Homecoming will retroactively be made shitty just you wait! I call dibs on "Is the MCU the New DCEU?"

J_Viper · Nov 15, 2018

Keep Holland as MCU Spidey

Get Zac Efron as VCU Spidey

Everybody wins

Noobie · Nov 15, 2018

Doggg · Nov 15, 2018

Weeeeee are [watching] Venom

Schlorgan · Nov 15, 2018

So for big movies for the rest of the year we have:

11/21
Ralph Breaks The Internet (Disney)
Creed 2 (WB)

12/14
Mortal Engines (Universal)
Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)

12/19
Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)

12/21
Aquaman (WB)
Bumblebee (Paramount)

Who bombs, who doesn't?

Heshinsi · Nov 15, 2018

Schlorgan said:
So for big movies for the rest of the year we have:

11/21
Ralph Breaks The Internet (Disney)
Creed 2 (WB)

12/14
Mortal Engines (Universal)
Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)

12/19
Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)

12/21
Aquaman (WB)
Bumblebee (Paramount)

Fantastic Beasts just opened. I think that will do better than a few on this list.

Thrill_house · Nov 15, 2018

Noobie said:

Sony execs on the phone like "GET ME SAM RAIMI RIGHT NOW!"

I for one never expected venom to do that well. Crazy numbers. Think I'll go see it this weekend, friends have said it was a fun, dumb action movie.

Bronx-Man · Nov 15, 2018

Spider-Man 3 (featuring Venom) retroactively made Sam Raimi's trilogy shit. Venom has retroactively made Homecoming shit.

Poetry.

Matt_ · Nov 15, 2018

Schlorgan said:
So for big movies for the rest of the year we have:

11/21
Ralph Breaks The Internet (Disney)
Creed 2 (WB)

12/14
Mortal Engines (Universal)
Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)

12/19
Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)

12/21
Aquaman (WB)
Bumblebee (Paramount)

Who bombs, who doesn't?

surely mortal engines
though it was kind of cheap so at least it won't be a total disaster

Seeya · Nov 15, 2018

This was from Nov 11th and Venom doesn't appear to be having a fast fade.

Thrill_house said:
Sony execs on the phone like "GET ME SAM RAIMI RIGHT NOW!"

I for one never expected venom to do that well. Crazy numbers. Think I'll go see it this weekend, friends have said it was a fun, dumb action movie.

I could see the return of Maguire/Riami and crossing over with Venom doing Iron Man 3 numbers.

No matter what the eventual Spider-Man/Venom cross over will do big numbers.

And yeah Venom is a lot of fun, try to go with a crowd/group if you can, the humor plays well in the theater.

RolandGunner said:
Fantastic Beasts did very well in its international opening night. Numbers are 50%+ ahead of the FB1 in key markets like France and Holland. 15% of FB1 in South Korea.

https://deadline.com/2018/11/fantas...a-global-international-box-office-1202502584/

As much as 2 may be getting some mixed opinions, this is good news.

Sargerus · Nov 15, 2018

At this point Marvel could do a Squadron Supreme movie and would make more money than Justice League.

Bus-TEE · Nov 15, 2018

I'd love to hear what MGM and Regency have to say about Dragon Tattoo's bombing at the box office seeing as they co-financed the film with Sony.

Even splitting the cake three ways won't soak up all the red ink the studio is going to have after such a dismal performance.

Schlorgan said:
So for big movies for the rest of the year we have:

11/21
Ralph Breaks The Internet (Disney)
Creed 2 (WB)

12/14
Mortal Engines (Universal)
Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)

12/19
Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)

12/21
Aquaman (WB)
Bumblebee (Paramount)

Who bombs, who doesn't?

I realise it isn't on the list but I heard Robin Hood is absolutely fucking wretched so if the Box Office gods want a sacrifice they have one ready made there.

Unless of course they are bored of the feasting on Lionsgate films time after time.

Sargerus said:
At this point Marvel could do a Squadron Supreme movie and
would make more money than Justice League.

If that's important to you, sure why not?

NealMcCauley · Nov 15, 2018

Oh yeah Robin Hood reviews should be fun to read.

Schlorgan · Nov 16, 2018

Fake, but hilarious.

Hayeya · Nov 16, 2018

Marvel are going to ask sony to include venom in the MCU arent they?

NealMcCauley · Nov 16, 2018

From last night: Fantastic Beasts ~$7M Thursday possibly.

After grossing $10.1M in ten offshore markets off 9K screens, Warner Bros.' Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald is eyeing an estimated Thursday night of $7M-$7.5M at approximately 3,300 locations that started showtimes at 5PM, per Deadline sources. These figures do not come from Warner Bros.

As we always footnote, this estimate could go higher or lower, and west coast shows just started an hour and 15 minutes ago. Two years ago at this time, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, the first chapter in the Harry Potter spinoff from author J.K. Rowling, made $8.75M, which repped close to 30% of its first day's $29.66M. The pic wound up opening to $74.4M in the U.S./Canada, but it was all about the global play with the movie, which debuted to $219.9M and finaled at $814M. This time around, FB2 is global day and date in 79 out of 80 markets. WB thinks it's going to debut to $250M WW; others think it's higher, possibly even $275M.

Schlorgan · Nov 16, 2018

Hayeya said:
Marvel are going to ask sony to include venom in the MCU arent they?

I think Sony would have to prove that this is a sustainable franchise first, and not just a one-off, before they would even consider it.

Rvaan · Nov 16, 2018

Schlorgan said:
So for big movies for the rest of the year we have:

11/21
Ralph Breaks The Internet (Disney)
Creed 2 (WB)

12/14
Mortal Engines (Universal)
Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)

12/19
Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)

12/21
Aquaman (WB)
Bumblebee (Paramount)

Who bombs, who doesn't?

Mortal Engines has to be a lock to bomb at this point. My gut tells me one of Bumblebee, Aquaman, and Spider-Verse has to under perform. Spider-Verse seems like the one less likely to bomb, WB is doing early screenings for Aquaman through Amazon so they have some faith in it, and Bumblebee is the 6th movie in franchise where each movie has gotten progressively worse. So logically Spider-Verse is going to be the one to bomb.

berzeli · Nov 16, 2018

Rvaan said:
one of Bumblebee, Aquaman, and Spider-Verse has to under perform

Bumblebee to be sold to Netflix (not really but hey it's a remote possibility now)

Paramount And Netflix Set Multi-Picture Film Deal

Paramount Pictures and has signed a multi-picture film deal with Netflix, studio boss Jim Gianopulos revealed today during Viacom's fourth-quarter earnings call with Wall Street analysts.
...
Gianopulos didn't offer specifics as to the number or names of titles included in the overall deal, saying it would be "a small number of titles" that would activate the partnership "when and where it makes sense."

Hardly shocking since the theatrical side of Paramount has not done great (or even good) for a bit, this year proving a slight rebound but unclear if that's something they'll be able to keep up. So minimising risk makes sense.

NealMcCauley · Nov 16, 2018

Update: Fantastic $9.1M Thursday

RolandGunner · Nov 16, 2018

NealMcCauley said:
Update: Fantastic $9.1M Thursday

A ton of Potter fans are excited to see young Dumbledore. Shame the movie is apparently mediocre. If FB2 had hit they probably could have gotten five out of the series.

Razgriz-Specter · Nov 16, 2018

Seeya said:
This was from Nov 11th and Venom doesn't appear to be having a fast fade.

I could see the return of Maguire/Riami and crossing over with Venom doing Iron Man 3 numbers.

No matter what the eventual Spider-Man/Venom cross over will do big numbers.

And yeah Venom is a lot of fun, try to go with a crowd/group if you can, the humor plays well in the theater.

As much as 2 may be getting some mixed opinions, this is good news.

Would be absolutely massive

Penguin · Nov 16, 2018

RolandGunner said:
A ton of Potter fans are excited to see young Dumbledore. Shame the movie is apparently mediocre. If FB2 had hit they probably could have gotten five out of the series.

I think it will hit

I think one or two reveals will land, and have folks talking/telling others to see the movie.

I could be wrong

Garlador · Nov 16, 2018

What a world.

Wkd Box Office - 11•9-11•18 - $66M for Grinch. Dragon Tattoo bombs. Venom > Justice League WW.

▲ Legend ▲

▲ Legend ▲

The Mushroom Kingdom Knight