'Not quite 600M' already counts the remaining rest of the world gross. Rest of the world was around 565M as of Sunday, with a 12M worldwide weekend outside of China. Venom is going to get hit hard in several territories this week due to Fantastic Beasts 2 launching.
Even if Venom hits 600M even, no one is projecting 280Mish in China at the moment. Just the possibility of passing Jurassic World 2.
Edit: fixed up the post to better reflect my intended tone. :)
I'm saving there exists scenarios where China doesn't quite hit those numbers but table scraps from the rest of the world going over 600m still gets it there.
You predicted 750m - 800m when the weekend numbers for China came out and I felt that was very conservative by about 50m on each end, regardless of anything we can both agree that Venom is going over 800m.
The point bringing that up is, '—No one is predicting—' might as well be the tag line on the films poster.
Gavin was predicting 200m in China after the OW. That seemed too low. Others projecting low 200m seemed low. All of them are now saying that JW2 (with conversion btw) is in danger. Out earning the first Monday (that was a
holiday) for JW2 is a bit more than just 'above JW2' even with the 8% devaluation (made posts about that earlier).
Furthermore, this isn't like when I made the case of Black Panther breaking 700m. There's no line in the sand here. The scenario is still a distant one even if I'm more confident that about the probability that Venom can reach 600m without China, than I assume you are.
No one predicted Venom to do what it has been doing, in any market. We'll know more soon; until then we can enjoy the ride :P