'The Grinch' Who Stole Business: Dr. Seuss Pic Opening To $66M As 'Overlord' & 'Spider's Web' Wither
Yesterday, matinees drove Saturday business for the Dr. Seuss yuletide classic to an estimated $27.5M, +47% from Friday keeping The Grinch on track for a $66M opening per Universal. That's Illumination's 7th No. 1 opening and Uni's fourth No. 1 opening in the last eight weeks after The House With a Clock in its Walls, Night School and Halloween.
The animated feature comes in with a thrifty Illumination production cost of $75M before P&A. Unlike The Nutcracker and the Four Realms last weekend, the holiday toon is cheaper and off to a great start for legs in the weeks to come.
The Grinch sells itself. It's from the Minions factory, and that guarantees a certain sense of humor to moviegoers (one of the most successful trailers, per RelishMix, at 2.5M YouTube views was the one where the Minions actually watch The Grinch trailer in a theater and laugh their butts off). In addition, The Grinch is a beloved holiday classic that, like the 2000 version, expands the story without turning the classic upside down and alienating family crowds.
On Screen Engine/ComScore's PostTrak, audiences are giving The Grinch a solid 4 stars and an 83% overall positive. It also earns an A- CinemaScore. Parents and kids both gave it 4 1/2 stars. Friday's audience had a 43% kid turnout, 18% parents, and 39% general audience. 58% moms to 42% dads showing up, with the strongest demos being females under-25 numbering 38% and men under-25 at 27%. Kids and parents give The Grinch around a 75% 'must see right away' (definite recommend) with girls under-12 outnumbering boys under-12, 56% to 44%.
Paramount's Overlord, which cost $38M before P&A, edged out its R-rated rival, Sony/MGM/New Regency's The Girl in the Spider Web, $10.1M to $8M in early Sunday AM estimates. Neither film is doing well enough in regards to their openings, a $15M-$20M start would have been great. Spider's Web was done 4% on Saturday from its $2.86M Friday while Overlord eased 2% yesterday with $3.7M.
The feature is a bit of a foster child at Paramount right now: Not only was it shepherded by the previous administration of the late Brad Gray and production chief Marc Evans, but it's produced by J.J. Abrams who is looking to leave the lot and take his overall deal elsewhere. Nonetheless, Paramount was impressed by the reviews that came out of Fantastic Fest and we hear that changed their minds in regards to shelling out a bit more P&A (significantly far less than the $40M-$50M domestic spend that Sony is putting out for Girl in the Spider's Web). In sum, Overlord gets a B CinemaScore and three stars on PostTrak drawing 44% males over 25, followed by females over 25 at 26%. Males over 25 gave the pic its best grade at 75% positive. Overlord, despite its smart zaniness is a calling card for Avery, with more commercial projects headed his way: Deadline exclusively reported that Fox locked him down to write and direct Flash Gordon, of which the filmmaker is a longtime fan.
The failure of The Girl in the Spider's Web is myriad, despite being cheaper than the 2012 U.S. remake, $43M to $90M. MGM only has 20% skin in Spider's Web with Sony selling down its majority stake to New Regency. "Even if this film grosses 70% overseas, it's hard to see it breaking even," says one trusted film finance source. Sony is calling the weekend at $8M, and rivals believe it's lower than that –around $7.7M– with A Star Is Born in the No. 5 spot with $8M, and can't stop domestic running total of $178M in weekend 6.
Spider's Web gets a B CinemaScore and 75% overall positive score drawing M25 and F25 equally at 39%. Relish Mix says on the social media buzz: "Moviegoers are confused as to why Rooney Mara is not returning to the series. They are also confused why the studio skipped over original entries (referring to the novels) to a lesser known tale. There is also a legitimate, non-polarizing contingent saying that to them, this film's materials over-emphasize the female protagonist. Whether or not the film has a #MeToo movement theme, some moviegoers feel alienated by the violence."
Bron Studios/Sony's The Front Runner from director Jason Reitman currently boasts the best screen average for a specialty release this weekend with $14K at four NY and LA venues (or $56K 3-day opening), but that's really horrible when you consider that it's a limited launch of an awards contender wannabee. That screen average needs to be between $40K-$50K a screen at the bare minimum for a fall contender's limited launch. At 62% fresh on RT, critics aren't impressed. And that score is enough of a scandal to prevent people from voting with their wallets for this political drama about Gary Hart's 1988 presidential campaign which was derailed by an extramarital affair. In its Tuesday through Sunday run, The Front Runner is expected to make an awful $76K.
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