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PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018
- Thread starter Phoenix Splash
- Start date
Jesus guys, what's happened to this thread?
I've been out of the loop for a few months now, but its looking at this point like we don't really have sufficient evidence for either a 2019 or 2020 release. I mean, yeah, we had all of that semiconductor industry info that we were trying to base concrete timelines off of, but that's already fallen pretty short. Just calm down and let's see how the next six months go, especially X018 tomorrow. No, MS might not announce any hardware, but they'll probably give major details on the streaming service, and its likely that Sony will respond with something not terribly long after.
I've been out of the loop for a few months now, but its looking at this point like we don't really have sufficient evidence for either a 2019 or 2020 release. I mean, yeah, we had all of that semiconductor industry info that we were trying to base concrete timelines off of, but that's already fallen pretty short. Just calm down and let's see how the next six months go, especially X018 tomorrow. No, MS might not announce any hardware, but they'll probably give major details on the streaming service, and its likely that Sony will respond with something not terribly long after.
Agree and with quoted post
that's way faster than pc gpus right now at least consumer ones
My 1080 ti is like 450 gb/s and I think the 2080 ti is like 600 gb/s about
Like with most things in life, where there is a absence of fact, conjecture, rumour and falsehoods fill the gap.
Peeps need to dial down the "team 20xx" stuff too, what are they expecting to "win"? Bragging rights? Honestly, no one will care if you called something with scant knowledge, thats called a guess.
Lets keep it positive people. There is enough division in the world. Lets not have it here too.
Ah ok, I thought the PS4 stored the constant recording in RAM rather than constantly writing to disk. Thanks for the info.
Love it when people that have no direct industry knowledge split hairs about the definition of insider so that they can discount the knowledge of those that aren't following their narrative. Jesus Christ, you have to be sad as fuck to be so attached to Team 20xx or whatever.
18GB of GDDR5 @ 880GB/s is just utter bullshit.
Invalidates everything else he's posted. He's clearly making shit up under the guise of being an insider.
Invalidates everything else he's posted. He's clearly making shit up under the guise of being an insider.
For all those pooh-pooh-ing OsirisBlack's "wrong" leaks on PS4K, cast your mind back to the gold standard rock solid big Orbis leak 6 years ago: https://kotaku.com/5896996/the-next-playstation-is-called-orbis-sources-say-here-are-the-details
- It's codename is "Orbis" (OK?)
- Holiday 2013 release (Correct)
- No PS3 BC (Correct, but very obvious)
- It can output games in 4K (LOL)
- not only the 4K we know today, but DCI 4K! (again LOL)
- No used games (LOL)
- Discs are locked to a PSN on first use (LOL)
- Can convert discs to a "download" (LOL)
- Need to register PSN account and go online or disc is useless (LOL LOL)
- Has an "AMD x64 CPU" (Correct, but very vague. No specs given whatsoever)
- Has an "AMD "Southern Islands" GPU (Correct, but ended up being the future GCN 1.2 version. Again vague, no specs given)
This is no more accurate than "It's a 7nm Zen 2 + Navi, with PS4 BC" followed by a ton of wrong specualtion.
There was a later Jan 2013 leak, from VGLeaks - which is way out there in hindsight but got some real attention back in the day: https://www./threads/vgleaks-playstation-4-orbis-roadmap.507910/
- AMD x86 3.2GHz APU Solution (Jaguar/Steamroller), 4 cores (2 core pairs), [Higher Clock than X720/Durango] (LOL)
- Maybe AMD 8000 series GPU solution [Customised Solution Possibly utilising GPU + APU combo] (1.84 Tflops) ( WOW, now here's the gem of actual bang on perfect leak in this this)
- 2-4GB GDDR5 (LOL)
- Launch Fall 2013/Early 2014 (Half correct, hedging bets tho)
Note again, for a hypothetical Fall 2019 launch we are 2 months earlier in the timeline right now than leaks of the above quality for PS4 Orbis!
And then OsirisBlack's "PS4K": https://www./threads/ps4k-information-2x-gpu-power-w-clock-new-cpu-price-tent-q1-2017.1202462/
- Pricing is $399 (Bang on perfect)
- "red pill" $499 option (LOL)
- The GPU is twice as powerful as standard PS4 and much faster. (Bang on perfect)
- 4K Blu-Ray player (LOL)
- Upscale old games (Correct)
- VR Lounge Media player update (ehh, kinda LOL. The media player did get updated to be VR capable, just about)
- Benefits to old games via patch per game per developer (Bang on perfect)
- Patches to old games "doubtful with the exception of a handful of games." (Bang on perfect)
- No performance upgrades for non-patched games (Correct at launch, boost mode later)
- List of games to get PS4K patch:
- Eve Valkyrie (Correct)
- Robinson (Correct)
- GT Sport (Correct)
- Deep Down (LOL, but he did "think this was dead")
- God of War (Correct, game not revealed at this point although leaked)
I really do not think the leak holds up too badly at all, in context.
- It's codename is "Orbis" (OK?)
- Holiday 2013 release (Correct)
- No PS3 BC (Correct, but very obvious)
- It can output games in 4K (LOL)
- not only the 4K we know today, but DCI 4K! (again LOL)
- No used games (LOL)
- Discs are locked to a PSN on first use (LOL)
- Can convert discs to a "download" (LOL)
- Need to register PSN account and go online or disc is useless (LOL LOL)
- Has an "AMD x64 CPU" (Correct, but very vague. No specs given whatsoever)
- Has an "AMD "Southern Islands" GPU (Correct, but ended up being the future GCN 1.2 version. Again vague, no specs given)
This is no more accurate than "It's a 7nm Zen 2 + Navi, with PS4 BC" followed by a ton of wrong specualtion.
There was a later Jan 2013 leak, from VGLeaks - which is way out there in hindsight but got some real attention back in the day: https://www./threads/vgleaks-playstation-4-orbis-roadmap.507910/
- AMD x86 3.2GHz APU Solution (Jaguar/Steamroller), 4 cores (2 core pairs), [Higher Clock than X720/Durango] (LOL)
- Maybe AMD 8000 series GPU solution [Customised Solution Possibly utilising GPU + APU combo] (1.84 Tflops) ( WOW, now here's the gem of actual bang on perfect leak in this this)
- 2-4GB GDDR5 (LOL)
- Launch Fall 2013/Early 2014 (Half correct, hedging bets tho)
Note again, for a hypothetical Fall 2019 launch we are 2 months earlier in the timeline right now than leaks of the above quality for PS4 Orbis!
And then OsirisBlack's "PS4K": https://www./threads/ps4k-information-2x-gpu-power-w-clock-new-cpu-price-tent-q1-2017.1202462/
- Pricing is $399 (Bang on perfect)
- "red pill" $499 option (LOL)
- The GPU is twice as powerful as standard PS4 and much faster. (Bang on perfect)
- 4K Blu-Ray player (LOL)
- Upscale old games (Correct)
- VR Lounge Media player update (ehh, kinda LOL. The media player did get updated to be VR capable, just about)
- Benefits to old games via patch per game per developer (Bang on perfect)
- Patches to old games "doubtful with the exception of a handful of games." (Bang on perfect)
- No performance upgrades for non-patched games (Correct at launch, boost mode later)
- List of games to get PS4K patch:
- Eve Valkyrie (Correct)
- Robinson (Correct)
- GT Sport (Correct)
- Deep Down (LOL, but he did "think this was dead")
- God of War (Correct, game not revealed at this point although leaked)
I really do not think the leak holds up too badly at all, in context.
So assuming ps5 is 2020, once January hits in two months, I can say PS5 comes out next year!! Sounds awesome.
People are all over the place in here. I think its pretty obvious without any insider info neccesary that 2019 aint happening. The safest prediction has always been
Fall 2020
16 to 24GB GDDR6
10tflop Navi semicustom GPU
Zen 2+ 8 core semicustom CPU with SMT disabled at 3.0 GHZ
All packaged in a 7nm APU for 399$
The only info we don't actually have nailed down based on common sense is the bandwidth speed and exact GPU clocks and CU count
Fall 2020
16 to 24GB GDDR6
10tflop Navi semicustom GPU
Zen 2+ 8 core semicustom CPU with SMT disabled at 3.0 GHZ
All packaged in a 7nm APU for 399$
The only info we don't actually have nailed down based on common sense is the bandwidth speed and exact GPU clocks and CU count
I disagree for the disable SMT. I think it will be 8 CCX Zen 2 at 2,8 GHz to 3,2 GHz.
And I don't think 2020 was the year making sense. It si now because we have no one knowing anything about a PS5 release in 2019 from third party perspective.
2019 was more logical like the PS4 Pro release three years after the PS4 launch but seeing PS4 number I can understand Sony.
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I wonder how many compute units it has?
What are the tflop numbers for 64, 72, @1.121ghz?
If it has the same amount of instructions as vega
64 compute units = 9.93tflops
72 compute units = 11.62tflops
76 compute units = 12.94 tflops
I think 12.94tflops is possible, 80 compute units(4 disabled) seems like a good figure to do
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The poll right above you says otherwise. Its easy to see that 2020 was the most logical conclusion even years in advance. Sony wanted to maximize this generation through Pro, they were not going to invalidate it 3 years on. And the technologies powering the PS5 were roadmapped as early as 2016 as not even being close to being in vogue until next year, and Sony were never going to release their console in the same year as AMD releases navi or GDDR6.
As for SMT being disabled, you have to account for yields. Disabling SMT is a good way of avoiding having to disable entire chips
64 active CUs would be 9.1TF
72 active CUs would be 10.3TF
This is going by Vega architecture. No idea how different Navi ends up being. I'm guessing they're working on improving the architecture and solving some of its limitations like the 64 CU limit.
My calculations are different?
For 72
72x72 = 5184 x 2 = 10368
10368 x 1121 = 11662528 ÷ 1million
= 11.62tflops
We will see disabled CU on the GPU side. I think we will have a pretty standard zen2 8 CCX CPU.
From a business point of views seeing the old generation launching after 6 years was much more logical then 7 years after. The last year of PS3/360 was very difficult for the industry. After I don't follow forum logic.
But seeing a very healthy 2018 from the industry, I think launching one year later is a good decision. Base console begins to suffer from a technological point of view but from Sony point of view, they have enough game to cover the end of generation.
From Microsoft point of view it would have been very good to launch one year before but after launching the Xbox One X in 2017 it seems risky now.
Maybe, yeah. I suck at math. Either way is it me or is 1.121ghz a bit low? I guess it'd make sense if they go for a lot of CUs and clock it down but I dunno, seeing the GPU clocked slower than the XB1X in ghz would be something.
Since we don't know anything about Navi's architecture I guess these calculations are a little pointless anyway.
Im not gonna argue over this. 2020 was what most people assumed based on basic common sense. That's it
We saw this gen that Sony was conservative with clock speeds.Comparing to MS,at least.
Your not alone I suck at math too, lol.
1.121ghz is on to low if the go with less then 72 total compute units.
If they go with 80 and 4 disabled, so 76 can be used that gives us 12.94tflops, which is really good for next gen.
And we are not even taking into consideration other navi enhancements.
Your use of common sense is wrong. There is nothing basic or common in trying to extrapolate a release date for a console based on little to no information.
Personally, my initial assessment was based on how Sony stopped talking about new game announcements, and then extrapolate to when I expect those unannounced games would actually be ready for launch. There was new hints released since then, but my original vote for 2020 was all based on that single datapoint.
The fact that I am not a year-one buyer of consoles means I am not influenced by personal desires. I don't particularly care when next gen starts, thus I can stay objective.
Dam, didn't realize he was so bang on with Pro.
More credence to him honestly
2019 then, sorry team 2020.
What we knew based on AMD's roadmap put forth by Lisa Su(when 7nm would be ready, when navi and Zen would be ready in semi custom form), what Sony has been doing and what we can extrapolate from previous trends(how PS4 information was slowly dripfed to the public) would never indicate that they were announcing or releasing a console next year in the first place.
I'm not sure what people are so resistant on seeing.
I think the meme "so you are saying there is a chance" is appropriate here.
We already saw how people slowly migrate their votes from 2019 to early 2020. This makes no sense, since Sony has no reason to release PS5 in any other month than November. Thus my interpretation is that the 2019 camp merely want their console as early as possible, with disregard for what Sony wants.
Pretty sure the Pro had a 16nm Polaris GPU with Vega features before or around the same time the very very first 16nm Polaris graphics cards arrived, and Sony's working relationship with AMD could be even stronger now. And assuming trends from the PS3-to-PS4 transition will apply to the next seems very shaky.
I don't think memory bandwidth helps with that. For instant-play I'm guessing they'd need to leverage either Machine Learning or Cloud servers or a combination of the two?
For Cloud, my assumption is that you stream the game and play it instantly while it actually installs in the background.
i guess, but it makes no sense to me. To release next year in my estimation would be to price themselves out of the market for that BOM. 2020 is when everything they want to put into the machine will be relatively common and easy to manufacture
bandwidth speed has absolutely nothing to do with any surface level feature
Exactly,Pro was first AMD 16nm chip,before both Polaris and Vega PC cards.
And TSMC said recently they will have about 100 7nm customers before the end of 2019,so...
I think we should keep in mind that Pro, using Polaris, made it out before Vega's PC launch because Vega was actually delayed. Going by all the Navi whispers on the internet, it looks like Navi will be out in the 2nd half of 2019 in the PC space, well before a 2020 PS5 launch.
Pro with Polaris/Vega characteristics was out a month or so before even Polaris PC cards,not to mention Vega.Logical conclusion from this is that PS5 Navi will be ready/out before PC Navi cards.
Polaris was out in GPU form months before PS4 Pro was released
The PS4 to PS5 in terms of handling is completely different from PS4 to Pro. PS5 will be mass produced on a different scale, budgeted on a different scale and revealed to developers in a different way.
In this way, the way the public learns about the PS5 will also be much different than PS4 to Pro.
The PS4 to PS5 in terms of handling is completely different from PS4 to Pro. PS5 will be mass produced on a different scale, budgeted on a different scale and revealed to developers in a different way.
In this way, the way the public learns about the PS5 will also be much different than PS4 to Pro.
Like I said, it doesn't seem like it'll be the case. Going by rumours, Navi for PC will be out in 2019.
According to some rumor, and later actual patents, a system where the game starts loading data in the moment you highlight the icon. It would also let you bypass logos and such to just instantly leap into your last saved game. Sounds great to me.
No chance of a Scarlett reveal tommorow but think well get thrown a minor teaser even if its as small as the E3 line??
I may be miss-remembering but up until OsirisBlacks info on ps4pro all we had was some vague information about Sony allegedly talking and a PS4 turbo.
While he didn't get all the info right wasn't he the first major source of actual info/confirmation of the product? If it's the same Osirisblack then there will be some truth to parts of the leak is my hunch. He absolutely nailed some stuff so I wouldn't fully discount his info?
While he didn't get all the info right wasn't he the first major source of actual info/confirmation of the product? If it's the same Osirisblack then there will be some truth to parts of the leak is my hunch. He absolutely nailed some stuff so I wouldn't fully discount his info?
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Feels a little too 'ps pro x 2' to me. Unless they think 12 GB usable is enough?
Pro used the latest AMD technology and was the first such mass market product in 2016.I am sure the same case will be with PS5 next year.
Clock speeds of this leak are a bit strange. A quick comparison:
PS4 Pro (16nm): 911 MHz
RX 470 (14nm): 1206 MHz -> +32%
RX 570 (14nm): 1244 MHz -> +37%
RX 480 (14nm): 1266 MHz -> +39%
RX 580 (14nm): 1340 MHz -> +47%
Leak (7nm): 1121 MHz
MI 50 (7nm): 1747 MHz -> +56%
MI 60 (7nm): 1800 MHz -> +61%
According to this leak, the PS5 GPU could have a much lower clock speed when you compare it with similar* GPUs than the PS4 Pro had compared with similar GPUs. Considering that the PS4 Pro only has a cheap cooling solution, I would have expected the PS5 clock speeds to be much more competitive.
*Of course this comparison only works if Vega / Navi can reach similar clock speeds.
PS4 Pro (16nm): 911 MHz
RX 470 (14nm): 1206 MHz -> +32%
RX 570 (14nm): 1244 MHz -> +37%
RX 480 (14nm): 1266 MHz -> +39%
RX 580 (14nm): 1340 MHz -> +47%
Leak (7nm): 1121 MHz
MI 50 (7nm): 1747 MHz -> +56%
MI 60 (7nm): 1800 MHz -> +61%
According to this leak, the PS5 GPU could have a much lower clock speed when you compare it with similar* GPUs than the PS4 Pro had compared with similar GPUs. Considering that the PS4 Pro only has a cheap cooling solution, I would have expected the PS5 clock speeds to be much more competitive.
*Of course this comparison only works if Vega / Navi can reach similar clock speeds.
Well,this gen Sony was conservative with clock speeds,i wouldn't be surprised if that continues next gen as well.
March 31 2019 is my cut off point for the dream to die
Hey sony? It's going to be three years since pro came out. I'm starting to feel the itch of PC gaming... you'd better release a new console soon to stop me moving away from console. You know, like you said for pro..
Idk, just seems strange that they would become even more conservative. PS5 will have 7nm and very likely a better cooling solution than PS4 Pro. And yet they can't even reach clock speeds of a RX470 in 14nm?
I agree with you. It was a relatively good leak. He also said 2 precise details, overall he clearly had legitimate sources:
- APU clocked higher and smaller than PS4 APU (correct)
But this PS5 leak ? If he is as much genuine than before then it's genius !