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Kaitos

Tens across the board!
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
14,706
Also my guess is Harley ends up winning by 4-6% when it's all said and done, in a seat that Hillary only won in a plurality by 2%.

 

Gazele

Member
Oct 25, 2017
972
Really proud of the California results, was a little disappointed on Tuesday, but is definitely turning around
 

Titik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,490
You know, the conventional wisdom was it would be impossible to rig an american election because how fragmented our voting system, often down to individual counties running their own systems. But, with enough knowledge of the electorate, and how polarized we are, you could probably swing an election by only targeting a handful of counties across a few states.
That's what they did in 2010. Read about Operation REDMAP.

Republicans in the shadows specifically targeted low cost state legislative seats with the intention of flipping them red and having control of redistricting of the districts.
 
Oct 27, 2017
17,973
Watching Trump again explain today that he didn't know Matt Whitaker, makes it seem like he was telling Putin that he didn't realize the guy who was supposed to block further investigations for them was such a mess.
 

Clowns

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,866
OH Predictive Insights's spreadsheet is updated again. The estimated win by Sinema went from 22,000 to 33,500, but open question is still Maricopa. Still, I think it's getting to point where McSally needs a miracle there.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nHUiVE8z9yuTFFvR85DWdF4ZWeY1NBem8W54G-GFWZg/edit#gid=0

Also they have 0 ballots for Coconino, which is wrong. It's 10k. So another edge of ~500 - ~1000 for Sinema there.
Are we expecting Coconino's remaining ballots to be more Republican than the county currently stands? It's 62/35 at the moment.
 

MarioW

PikPok
Verified
Nov 5, 2017
1,155
New Zealand
Trump demonizing dems makes his bass ...

Reading this I had a vivid image of the entirely plausible scenario of a Big Mouth Billy Bass which Trump has hung in the Oval Office on moving in, because of course he would, which the increasingly senile President imagines taunting him incessantly about bad news using fish based puns.
 

devSin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,195
I think it's very different circumstances, unless I'm misremembering Bush/Cheney. They were essentially "war crimes" and lying to the public. Trump is all manner of things that relate to everything from campaign staffing issues and liaising with unregistered foreign agents, to campaign finance fraud/misrepresentation, as well as the (fairly obvious) Obstruction of Justice. They're very different ballgames, as Bush/Cheney indicting would effectively kneecap future Presidents and VPs with regards to foreign policy, whilst Trump (and Pence?) is personal criminal liability. It sets a worse precedent to pardon/sweetheart deal Trump than it does to indict/prosecute.
It's not about the crimes they would be charged with. It's about the principle of charging former elected officials, especially when a new party takes power.

The precedent of not criminalizing former leaders is already set in this country, and longstanding. I don't think Trump being so uniquely a real piece of shit changes the equation all that much.

That is why Obama shut down any attempt to hold his predecessors criminally liable, and it's why I fully expect Trump to escape any serious charge.
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
It's not about the crimes they would be charged with. It's about the principle of charging former elected officials, especially when a new party takes power.

The precedent of not criminalizing former leaders is already set in this country, and longstanding. I don't think Trump being so uniquely a real piece of shit changes the equation all that much.

That is why Obama shut down any attempt to hold his predecessors criminally liable, and it's why I fully expect Trump to escape any serious charge.
It's about criminalizing things they do in office with the powers of the office. Trump's shit is not that.
 

LegendofJoe

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,082
Arkansas, USA
We talked about this a bit in the Discord last night, and not that it's necessarily his best move but I strongly disagree with the notion that Cornyn would be a worse opponent for O'Rourke than Cruz if he decided to give it another run.

Sure, he'd have advantages - namely that he's less controversial. But Beto could also turn that to his advantage, being the young, fresh face a lot of Texans are clearly desiring against an old establishment hack who doesn't have much of his own brand. Cruz at least had the true believers on his side.

And while Cornyn cleaned up in his last election, that was also during a midterm year with pitiful turnout. In fact there were almost double as many votes cast in the Senate race this year than in 2014. The last year with comparable turnout - 2008 - Cornyn only won by 12 points.

I mean, I'm all for O'Rourke doing whatever. If he winds up on the presidential ticket, decides to run for Senate again, or holds off until governor in 2022 - I think he'd succeed at whatever he set out to do.


Someone mentioned on Twitter as well how Nate didn't control North Carolina for the fact that Walter Jones (R) ran unopposed, and if you factor that in Democrats actually got more votes. I don't know the extent to which that's true, but it's fertile ground for us in any case and we can't afford not to compete everywhere.

It is true, I did the math myself, Democrats got more votes statewide in NC.
 
Oct 27, 2017
17,973
Maybe. It is well known in this country that prosecutors will be satisfied with an orderly departure of an elected official in lieu of moving forward with charges that are burdensome to prove in court.

But in hindsight, going back to the civil war, all through nixon and up to today, there was a cost to sweeping these things under the rug, and the country has painfully absorbed that cost each time.

People are tired of this and they've had enough, hence the some 1000 protests this week. They don't want this investigation or any resulting proceedings shut down by anyone, no matter who succeeds Trump. The magnitude of public participation in reaction to this presidency is different this time.
 

Beer Monkey

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
9,308
Whatever Rick Wilson says, I predicted to a friend hours ago that Whitaker has done fucked himself and hurt Trump. There's a shitstorm brewing because Trump done Trumped again.

The Special Counsel investigation continues and Trump keeps shooting himself in his little toad dick.
 

Pixieking

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,956
It's not about the crimes they would be charged with. It's about the principle of charging former elected officials, especially when a new party takes power.

I'd argue it is - at least partially - about the crimes they could be charged with, because an argument could be made that Bush and Cheney were doing what they believed was best for the country. An indictment that was based on their actions in that context could have a "chilling effect" on future Presidents. But the bolded sentence is exactly why I think Trump will be charged - it is a principle of charging former elected officials. To not charge tactily agrees with the Republicans who say the President is above the law.

A new party taking over has nothing to do with it, btw - the DoJ would be the one handling the indictment, correct? This is not something a President Beto would order, this is something that a President Beto would allow to happen, which is a very different thing.
 

devSin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,195
It's about criminalizing things they do in office with the powers of the office. Trump's shit is not that.
I don't see an overriding interest in prosecuting the crimes he committed prior to taking office.

It's easy to look at the situation and say that he should be punished (he's guilty, and everyone knows it). But I think it further opens the door to a future where we lock up the leaders we're unhappy with as a matter of course once they leave power (we see it many places in history and countries around the world today).

People are tired of this and they've had enough, hence the some 1000 protests this week. They don't want this investigation or any resulting proceedings shut down by anyone, no matter who succeeds Trump. The magnitude of public participation in reaction to this presidency is different this time.
I'm not so sure they won't stand down as long as he's out of office.

I think that's what most people truly want.
 
Oct 27, 2017
17,973
Bob woodward with the f-bomb on Maher.

Btw, Maher thought the Democrats did just ok, but not great. Even Michael Moore was grinning on O'Donnell last night, pleased that it went as well as it did. Maher still grousing to his panel like nothing will happen, forcing Bret Stephens to abandon his op-ed to explain the benefits of the election results to Maher. Comedy gold.
 

Madison

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,388
Lima, Peru
Funny story, Sinema
Anyways, the markets pretty much say it all.

Drm6Qi9UUAULESX.jpg:large
Funny story, betting odds for Sinema were 5 to 1 two days ago

I thought about doing it but I didnt take the risk. Fuck
 

Beer Monkey

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
9,308
Maher isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer. The numbers and geography of the election is literally a blue wave. Yeah, we didn't get a tsunami, whatever.
 

Pixieking

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,956
I don't see an overriding interest in prosecuting the crimes he committed prior to taking office.

Which essentially says that whatever crimes he committed - fraud, tax evasion, illegally acquired emails, campaign finance fraud - aren't crimes if you win, and that there's no reason for others to not commit them as long as they win.
 

devSin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,195
Which essentially says that whatever crimes he committed - fraud, tax evasion, illegally acquired emails, campaign finance fraud - aren't crimes if you win, and that there's no reason for others to not commit them as long as they win.
That he's not charged or jailed for the crimes doesn't mean they're never investigated.

I fully expect investigations and new Congressional oversight to shed further light on all his crimes, past and present. I just don't think that he will ever see jail time, and I think that's ultimately what's best for the country (like it or not, we all have to try to live together, at least as long as we can before everything really goes to shit).

And yes, if you win the presidency of the United States of America, that means there's some consequences you'll never have to face. We can't blindly look the other way and allow someone to freely break the law (no matter who they are), but there are always going to be some people to escape punishment, whether that comes through a pardon or a plea deal or simply acknowledgment that prosecution is not in the public interest.
 
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Iolo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,898
Britain
I'd be happy just with Trump's empire stripped away and his children jailed for fraud.

But I would still like to see his hair after 3 months in jail. Jail is also the only way to keep him off Twitter, because we know they still won't ban him after he leaves office.
 

Jupiter IV

Member
Jan 6, 2018
1,220
So with Rohrabacher not holding elected office, House Intel wouldn't run into any weird issues should they investigate anything on his ties to Russia, correct?
 

Naijaboy

The Fallen
Mar 13, 2018
15,277
Took a bit of a hiatus from news. While Beto losing was disappointing, Texas Dems had a pretty good night.

Besides the congressional victories (thank the Lord Culberson's gone!), they flipped 12 seats in the state house and 2 in the senate (making them one seat away from breaking the supermajority).

In Harris County, the Dems completely wiped out the GOP hold of the courts and took control of the county commissioner's court, including knocking out the head. Even nearby Fort Bend County elected a Dem county judge and district attorney.

It may take a while before Texas goes blue, but Beto helped reveal some caveats to go after in future elections.
 

Pixieking

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,956
That he's not charged or jailed for the crimes doesn't mean they're never investigated.

I fully expect investigations and new Congressional oversight to shed further light on all his crimes, past and present. I just don't think that he will ever see jail time, and I think that's ultimately what's best for the country (like it or not, we all have to try to live together, at least as long as we can before everything really goes to hell).

And yes, if you win the presidency of the United States of America, that means there's some consequences you'll never have to face.

I feel that it would do more harm than good for investigations to say "he committed all these crimes... But we'll let him go because 'there's some consequences you never have to face if you're a former President'". That feels like the very opposite of justice, and I think it would fracture society even more than it currently is, as it's literally just "This white man committed tons of crimes, failed upward to the highest office in the land, and won't suffer any repercussions that you or I would. Also, if he was black, minority or a woman, over half the country would riot because Fox News said so, but we should play nice". Forget about American Exceptionalism, this would just be Old White Guy Exceptionalism.

I actually think Trump being charged and pleading out on diminished mental capacity would be the best route - it's obvious he's mentally incapable, whether due to just being below average intelligence, or through Alzheimer's or some such.
 

devSin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,195
I feel that it would do more harm than good for investigations to say "he committed all these crimes... But we'll let him go because 'there's some consequences you never have to face if you're a former President'". That feels like the very opposite of justice, and I think it would fracture society even more than it currently is, as it's literally just "This white man committed tons of crimes, failed upward to the highest office in the land, and won't suffer any repercussions". :/
That's America. Powerful people escape punishment every day.

You talk about fracturing society, but you have to recognize that a lot of people voted for this man and continue to support him. Jailing the opposition is not American tradition, and it never should be, even if it means we have to let a bad man escape punishment for his bad acts (and to be clear, most of the crimes we're talking about are financial and enterprise corruption stuff).

And nobody is saying he won't face any repercussions. At the very least, I hope we're able to take all his money away once he leaves office.
 

LegendofJoe

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,082
Arkansas, USA
That's America. Powerful people escape punishment every day.

You talk about fracturing society, but you have to recognize that a lot of people voted for this man and continue to support him. Jailing the opposition is not American tradition, and it never should be, even if it means we have to let a bad man escape punishment for his bad acts (and to be clear, most of the crimes we're talking about are garden-variety corruption).

And nobody is saying he won't face any repercussions. At the very least, I hope we're able to take all his money away once he leaves office.

I don't care if Trump never serves jail time, I just want him to finally be shamed and disgraced.
 
Oct 30, 2017
2,365
I hope this mess with Whitaker gets even worse for Trump & Co. I do find it absolutely hilarious though that Lindsey Graham has been licking Trump's balls for the better part of the year trying to get that AG position, and Trump didn't even have him in the running.
 
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