US Midterm Elections 2018 |OT| Babs is Surging

Wandering Soul · Nov 6, 2018

Me and my wife did our part in GA today. We live in a fairly rural place not far from Augusta. Completely surrounded by Kemp flags at every house. Literally have not seen a single Abrams flag anywhere. Even living in a pretty rural place the voting was fortunately quick & easy and there was probably close to 15 booths to vote at.

I'm not gonna lie, reading some of the news in this thread about the situation in other parts of GA has me really discouraged and disheartened. I'm keeping my fingers crossed but I really don't see how ABrams is going to pull this off.

KHarvey16 · Nov 6, 2018

SteveWinwood said:
And people who do know what it means don't need it so...

It's an informative snapshot at a given moment. It's fine.

ZeoVGM · Nov 6, 2018

Frozenprince said:
Voted dem down ticket in MA 2nd district, hopefully Gonzalez wins the governorship I've had enough of Baker's soft handed pandering ultimately accomplishing nothing. How he's handled the T has been pretty awful.

VectorPrime said:
Baker is going to win by like 30 and it makes me want to tear my hair out.

I was soured on Baker after 2016 but was very disappointed in his non-response to some of the big issues the T had last winter.

Tweeted about it today:

Smiles · Nov 6, 2018

Had surgery yesterday and because I live alone I had to be admitted overnight, today was a gloomy rainy day but just as the hospital let me go did not go home but walked in the rain to get this done

astroturfing · Nov 6, 2018

non-American here, very interested to see how this all pans out.. how many hours until shit starts to get real? its getting late here and i need to know when to set my alarm to wake up and start watching streams :)

Republicans better fucking lose as much as possible.. for the good of the whole world.

Deleted member 14649 · Nov 6, 2018

Given the vastness of the USA it is obviously difficult to organise polling stations, but you do seem to try and limit the ease with which a person can just turn out and vote. Here they seem to be on nearly every street when we have elections eg in schools and community centres. I'm amazed how far some US citizens have to go to vote.

Also why can't you have the simple put a cross in a box method of voting? The system there seems far too prone to tampering or just malfunction.

Slayven · Nov 6, 2018

Wandering Soul said:
Me and my wife did our part in GA today. We live in a fairly rural place not far from Augusta. Completely surrounded by Kemp flags at every house. Literally have not seen a single Abrams flag anywhere. Even living in a pretty rural place the voting was fortunately quick & easy and there was probably close to 15 booths to vote at.

I'm not gonna lie, reading some of the news in this thread about the situation in other parts of GA has me really discouraged and disheartened. I'm keeping my fingers crossed but I really don't see how ABrams is going to pull this off.

Every place that isn't Savannah or Atl is rural outside of Augusta. Even North Augusta

DukeBlue · Nov 6, 2018

Smiles said:
Had surgery yesterday and because I live alone I had to be admitted overnight, today was a gloomy rainy day but just as the hospital let me go did not go home but walked in the rain to get this done

Yaaaaaas great job!

Jisgsaw · Nov 6, 2018

Dreams-Visions said:
Problem is people have to go to work. Staying in line is just not an option for many.

Election Day must become a national holiday.

Or you know... do it on a Sunday like most places I know.

Frozenprince · Nov 6, 2018

ZeoVGM said:
I was soured on Baker after 2016 but was very disappointed in his non-response to some of the big issues the T had last winter.

Tweeted about it today:

My line is late by 15-20 minutes every single day and it's never the double decker which means people need to then wait for the next train just to be able to get into work. It's insane how much money goes into the god damn terminals and yet not a dime goes to making sure the thing runs properly. I can't be late every day so I can't ride the line to work despite it being more efficient and pretty much as time consuming as driving out are. And his response might as well be a wet fart.

Like Gonzalez said in addressing it, the standard for governance should be higher than basic decency and civility.

kmfdmpig · Nov 6, 2018

Voting in AZ was weird as there was a state wide issue with the machines that only lasted a few minutes. Some people were freaking out about it, however. Happily it was fixed very quickly and everything was smooth after that.

Thunder Monkey · Nov 6, 2018

I was just told that my little precinct in Kansas of roughly 700 registered voters has only nine fewer voting machines than Dodge City Kansas which has 13,000 registered voters.

My precinct is 92% white. Theirs is 54% hispanic.

Wonder what that's about.

Kindekuma · Nov 6, 2018

Did early voting in TN like 2 weeks ago. Wonder if this state will turn blue tonight, seems like it's going to be incredibly close. Keeping an eye on TX tonight as well.

ZeoVGM · Nov 6, 2018

Frozenprince said:
My line is late by 15-20 minutes every single day and it's never the double decker which means people need to then wait for the next train just to be able to get into work. It's insane how much money goes into the god damn terminals and yet not a dime goes to making sure the thing runs properly. I can't be late every day so I can't ride the line to work despite it being more efficient and pretty much as time consuming as driving out are. And his response might as well be a wet fart.

Like Gonzalez said in addressing it, the standard for governance should be higher than basic decency and civility.

Yep.

And I recognize that Gonzalez has little to no chance. But when i say I want a blue wave, I want a damn blue wave.

Durden · Nov 6, 2018

borghe said:
"just playing to bases they already have votes from".. the problem is.. they have votes from the bases, but the turnout from the bases is less than ideal. When they have votes from a minority group, say urban blacks.. but then only like 25% show up at the polls.. you still have to court the base to get higher turnout, etc.

not saying you're necessarily wrong about going to other areas. But people think rallying votes is about expanding your appeal. that is certainly a part of it... but a big part of it is just rallying the group that already supports you to get higher turnout from it.

This is true, for sure. But I dunno. I know they have a lot on their plate, but I just feel like they still could encourage their turnout cities while still working harder and at least attempting to reach out to other more red areas. Like Abrams has ZERO presence in rural GA. I still have family in some of those spots, and when I go there it is Kemp fucking city. Abrams has Atlanta on lock, but you still see a Kemp sign every now and then outside the city but still metro Atlanta. Abrams has NONE of that in rural GA.

Reds want the "regular guy" and all that shit, and see blues as people up in high towers that don't give a shit about them. Or they're just racist. Whatever. It doesn't help that case the that blues do absolutely NOTHING to reach out to those areas. I mean, yeah, you can't expect much change, but someone has to at least start planting those seeds unless they just always want to resign those areas. Even if nothing comes from it, at least reds can't say "well Abrams never came to us! She never came to Macon! She don't care about us!".

mooshie78 said:
These are kind of seperate, though related, issues.

Abrams only chance is record turn out from Black voters and college educated whites, so it made complete sense to focus on the Atlanta Metro area and getting record turn out there in the days leading up to the election. Her campaign was active in the other cities with large black populations like Macon and Savannah as well, just more bang for the buck in the closing days to focus the celebrities on the Atlanta area.

On the other hand, the Clinton campaign made a huge mistake by not campaigning in Michigan and Wisconsin much (she didn't visit either in person IIRC) and just taking them for granted.

Ugh. I remember Trump going to MI in particular like...what 3....4 times? And being absolutely infuriated when Clinton announced she had no plans to go. Everyone was like "lol she doesn't need to" and I just kept thinking that's why we may lose, is because people think she doesn't need to. Fucking bullshit, work harder. That methodology of treating an area like that WILL come through to voters at least somewhat, no matter how much on lock you think you have a place. As we fucking saw when we lost MI.

VectorPrime · Nov 6, 2018

Frozenprince said:
My line is late by 15-20 minutes every single day and it's never the double decker which means people need to then wait for the next train just to be able to get into work. It's insane how much money goes into the god damn terminals and yet not a dime goes to making sure the thing runs properly. I can't be late every day so I can't ride the line to work despite it being more efficient and pretty much as time consuming as driving out are. And his response might as well be a wet fart.

Like Gonzalez said in addressing it, the standard for governance should be higher than basic decency and civility.

It's sickening seeing Baker ads on TV all of the time and NONE for Gonzalez. But I guess if I were Gonzalez I wouldn't waste my money when there's no chance.

Bramblebutt · Nov 6, 2018

What's everyone's opinion on uncontested elections? I tend to elect not to choose if there is no opponent and I don't particularly believe in their platform.

Redhead On Moped · Nov 6, 2018

Hiphopopotamus said:
Damn, hopefully you aren't a lawyer

Do you think fries for voting is "coercion"?

You should stick to opining on things you know. I don't know what that subject might be, but it sure isn't federal election law.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/field-museum-free-admission-voting-election-midterms/

Deleted member 18951 · Nov 6, 2018

I'm from the UK but somehow feel invested in the outcome of these midterms, they could send a message of hope to what feels like an uprising of right wing views and party's across the world.

How long until we start seeing the first results?

The Albatross · Nov 6, 2018

Pooh said:
Sure, but let's say 20x more people vote for Dems in a state and yet their house reps are almost all Republican due to gerrymandering. How does that feel legitimate?

Is there a state where these sorts of numbers -- 20x advantage for one party, but the other party holds nearly all of the house seats -- actually happens?

Omegasquash · Nov 6, 2018

Frozenprince said:
My line is late by 15-20 minutes every single day and it's never the double decker which means people need to then wait for the next train just to be able to get into work. It's insane how much money goes into the god damn terminals and yet not a dime goes to making sure the thing runs properly. I can't be late every day so I can't ride the line to work despite it being more efficient and pretty much as time consuming as driving out are. And his response might as well be a wet fart.

Like Gonzalez said in addressing it, the standard for governance should be higher than basic decency and civility.

I quit the rail a long time ago because of the expense and delays. The Haverhill line was, and is still frequently, fucked.

Rivenblade · Nov 6, 2018

Do we know anything yet? Or we have to wait until 6pm Eastern at least? :-/ I'm in Canada, but I'm very curious to see how tonight is going to play out.

Frozenprince · Nov 6, 2018

VectorPrime said:
It's sickening seeing Baker ads on TV all of the time and NONE for Gonzalez. But I guess if I were Gonzalez I wouldn't waste my money when there's no chance.

It's all about just getting his name out there. 2022 will be really interesting and hopeful, but until then MA government will be a total slog of exactly what they crapped all over Patrick for. Bureaucratic hell mired in a great nothingness of action.

It's been TWO YEARS and still not ONE dispensary has been issued it's license to distribute despite them promising it would be done in march and now looking like it wont be done until next year. Baker refuses to stop dragging his heels on anything. I'm amazed he's as popular as he is because he accomplishes very, very little and now our state senate and legislature are basically just passing token measures instead of dealing with the real issues like Boston segregation, the metro line deteriorating, Worcester's infrastructure basically melting away and on and on and on.

Slayven · Nov 6, 2018

Rivenblade said:
Do we know anything yet? Or we have to wait until 6pm Eastern at least? :-/ I'm in Canada, but I'm very curious to see how tonight is going to play out.

7pm more then likely 8 or later

Mcfrank · Nov 6, 2018

Rivenblade said:
Do we know anything yet? Or we have to wait until 6pm Eastern at least? :-/ I'm in Canada, but I'm very curious to see how tonight is going to play out.

We know turn out is high. We wont know anything else for 5 hours or so.

Xe4 · Nov 6, 2018

Nate SIlver posted a pretty good take on regarding the NYT election tracker back during the Alabama special election:

The Upshot's model shows good news for Jones, but it has also been swinging around a fair bit. A few minutes ago, they had him with a 90 percent chance of winning, but that probability is now back down to 67 percent.

I really admire what the Upshot folks are trying to do, but it's also worth noting that building a live-updating model based on partial returns is a really hard problem. Among other things, its hard to calibrate your estimates of uncertainty based on empirical data, because (to put this in a nontechnical way) every state and every election is different. So I'd keep a watchful eye on the Upshot's dials to get an overall sense of how things are trending, but I wouldn't take the probabilities too literally, at least until later in the night.

Remember guys, it's modeling, shit ain't easy, but that don't mean there's no use for it. Don't disparage it, just as you shouldn't put too much faith in in. Think of it as another tool to let you know how the night is going.

Just as you shouldn't freak out if it says a hurricane is going to land in your area a week and a half away, you shouldn't loose your mind when it comes to the model predicting races early on. That doesn't mean you shouldn't keep an eye on it.

Hiphopopotamus · Nov 6, 2018

Redhead On Moped said:
https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/field-museum-free-admission-voting-election-midterms/

So how far are you moving your goalposts, here?

Under state election law, giving or lending "any money or other valuable consideration to any other person to influence such other person to vote or to register to vote," is considered a felony. It's also prohibited by federal election law, punishable by up to five years in prison and a $10,000 fine.

Why did you try to pass off federal statutes when this is obviously a state-law issue? Try again, sweetheart

VectorPrime · Nov 6, 2018

Frozenprince said:
It's all about just getting his name out there. 2022 will be really interesting and hopeful, but until then MA government will be a total slog of exactly what they crapped all over Patrick for. Bureaucratic hell mired in a great nothingness of action.

It's been TWO YEARS and still not ONE dispensary has been issued it's license to distribute despite them promising it would be done in march and now looking like it wont be done until next year. Baker refuses to stop dragging his heels on anything. I'm amazed he's as popular as he is because he accomplishes very, very little and now our state senate and legislature are basically just passing token measures instead of dealing with the real issues like Boston segregation, the metro line deteriorating, Worcester's infrastructure basically melting away and on and on and on.

Why did Deval not run for a 3rd term? Was he that underwater with the voters? I was shamefully not paying attention in 2014.

The Albatross · Nov 6, 2018

Redhead On Moped said:
Technically illegal.

https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/USCOD...E-2008-title42-chap20-subchapI-A-sec1973i.htm

Technically it isn't. The lawyers who work for ShakeShack or any other place include fine print on the promotional deal showing that anybody can qualify for the reward even if they didn't vote.

Diligent citizens should test this, of course, and then take it to the Supreme Court as a violation of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. Don't vote today, go to ShakeShack and ask for your free fries. If the person at the counter turns you away, immediately capture the incident on social media and contact a conservative Republican lawyer or the ACLU to help you sue both ShakeShack and the States Attorney General of New York.

Pooh · Nov 6, 2018

Rivenblade said:
Do we know anything yet? Or we have to wait until 6pm Eastern at least? :-/ I'm in Canada, but I'm very curious to see how tonight is going to play out.

We won't know anything for another 4 hours or so, and depending on how close things are we may not know who controls the House for weeks.

Rivenblade · Nov 6, 2018

Slayven said:
7pm more then likely 8 or later

Mcfrank said:
We know turn out is high. We wont know anything else for 5 hours or so.

Got it. Thanks!

Deleted member 31817 · Nov 6, 2018

Deleted member 32374 · Nov 6, 2018

Rivenblade said:
Do we know anything yet? Or we have to wait until 6pm Eastern at least? :-/ I'm in Canada, but I'm very curious to see how tonight is going to play out.

Don't bother staying up all night. Get a good night sleep and wake up with some coffee tomorrow to get a full picture of what happened.

Xita · Nov 6, 2018

Wandering Soul said:
Me and my wife did our part in GA today. We live in a fairly rural place not far from Augusta. Completely surrounded by Kemp flags at every house. Literally have not seen a single Abrams flag anywhere. Even living in a pretty rural place the voting was fortunately quick & easy and there was probably close to 15 booths to vote at.

I'm not gonna lie, reading some of the news in this thread about the situation in other parts of GA has me really discouraged and disheartened. I'm keeping my fingers crossed but I really don't see how ABrams is going to pull this off.

Yeah my sister voted a week ago and the situation is similar. Kemp everywhere. Rooting for Abrams but I'm not very confident.

Deleted member 47843 · Nov 6, 2018

jkm23 said:
Don't bother staying up all night. Get a good night sleep and wake up with some coffee tomorrow to get a full picture of what happened.

This. Too frustrating listening to all the talking heads argue about polls and projections. I'll glance at the returns over the evening, go to bed at my normal time and pour over the results on my iPad over my morning coffee and breakfast.

Transistor · Nov 6, 2018

Redhead On Moped said:
https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/field-museum-free-admission-voting-election-midterms/

The big question is this: why do you care if people get incentives to go vote?

PhilosopherDirtBike · Nov 6, 2018

Rereading the 2016 election night thread from The Other Place and it's crazy how fast the mood turned. In less than a page, it went from rampant enthusiasm with early results, talking about an impending Clinton landslide, to "oh fuck fuck shit fuck we're so screwed", all because Trump caught up in Florida. Fun times.

peyrin · Nov 6, 2018

jkm23 said:
Don't bother staying up all night. Get a good night sleep and wake up with some coffee tomorrow to get a full picture of what happened.

Now where's the fun in not staying up to obsess over every vote in every comically tight race

DrROBschiz · Nov 6, 2018

Xita said:
Yeah my sister voted a week ago and the situation is similar. Kemp everywhere. Rooting for Abrams but I'm not very confident.

The brainwashing effect of Trumps politics and parroting unfair and aggressive tactics has had a powerful ans sombering effect on our society

Fuck empathy and idealism

This is the cutthroat fuck you got mine era

And its scary as fuck

Deleted member 32374 · Nov 6, 2018

mooshie78 said:
This. Too frustrating listening to all the talking heads argue about polls and projections. I'll glance at the returns over the evening, go to bed at my normal time and pour over the results on my iPad over my morning coffee and breakfast.

I learned my lesson after 2016, no sleep the night before just makes everything worse.

sapien85 · Nov 6, 2018

Blue said:
I live in a town of 12,000 people. There are three polling places. Mine had eight machines.

Weird huh? Almost as if someone made sure small town America votes very easily and a big city with a big black population is strapped for voting machines.

amon37 · Nov 6, 2018

bsigg said:
I think voting should be legally required for all US citizens over 18 and not currently incarcerated.

I thought about this too but then you'd have so many filling it out "because they have too" and just checking boxes without researching candidates. Is that any better then not voting?

DeliciousSunnyD! · Nov 6, 2018

I did my civic duty Era. Voted straight D ticket out in an old as hell, podunk Community Center. Was surprised to see cars and several people there actually and anecdotally I overheard the poll workers mention that today was probably the biggest turnout they'd seen since they'd been working the polls. I think there were close to 200 people who had voted by the time I'd gone through, so I think that's a pretty good number considering where this is located.

Redhead On Moped · Nov 6, 2018

Hiphopopotamus said:
So how far are you moving your goalposts, here?

Why did you try to pass off federal statutes when this is obviously a state-law issue? Try again, sweetheart

I don't need to, you are the one that brought up the state/federal distinction in the first place. Now I have in the past noted that such things may have been apparently illegal under federal provisions, but didn't actually claim certain on such occasions as I did not have the information on hand. I'm just saying it's techincally illegal which is true, that's it. Of course most likely nothing will happen as there are "bigger fish to fry" so to speak, I recognize that.

Transistor said:
The big question is this: why do you care if people get incentives to go vote?

Personally, I feel it cheapens the process and strips it of its solemness and dignity. That's just how I feel anyways, I'm not alone in the matter though.

Deleted member 47843 · Nov 6, 2018

Wandering Soul said:
Me and my wife did our part in GA today. We live in a fairly rural place not far from Augusta. Completely surrounded by Kemp flags at every house. Literally have not seen a single Abrams flag anywhere. Even living in a pretty rural place the voting was fortunately quick & easy and there was probably close to 15 booths to vote at.

I'm not gonna lie, reading some of the news in this thread about the situation in other parts of GA has me really discouraged and disheartened. I'm keeping my fingers crossed but I really don't see how ABrams is going to pull this off.

Xita said:
Yeah my sister voted a week ago and the situation is similar. Kemp everywhere. Rooting for Abrams but I'm not very confident.

I'm similarly pessimistic. Very different demographics here in East Atlanta. A fuckton of Abrams signs (some blocks nearly every 3rd or 4th yard has one) and not a single Kemp sign. But I just don't see these kind of areas drowning out the vast rural stretches. Not yet anyway, but hopefully it will get their and be like Virginia where where the DC suburbs and exurbs determine most of the major elections now.

She probably has to win outright today too as she'd be worse off in a runoff next month when turnout will be lower and some of the libertarian voters would come out for Kemp over her then.

The Albatross · Nov 6, 2018

Rivenblade said:
Do we know anything yet? Or we have to wait until 6pm Eastern at least? :-/ I'm in Canada, but I'm very curious to see how tonight is going to play out.

Won't know anything until at least 7PM EST, and even then it's mostly just coastal areas with clear victors who will be reported. Most of the hot races will take several hours more.

bsigg said:
I think voting should be legally required for all US citizens over 18 and not currently incarcerated.

We probably agree on intent...

But this would be a severe violation of your Constitutional rights.

Creamium · Nov 6, 2018

PhilosopherDirtBike said:
Rereading the 2016 election night thread from The Other Place and it's crazy how fast the mood turned. In less than a page, it went from rampant enthusiasm with early results, talking about an impending Clinton landslide, to "oh fuck fuck shit fuck we're so screwed", all because Trump caught up in Florida. Fun times.

I still remember waking up to that news, it was surreal.

peyrin · Nov 6, 2018

amon37 said:
I thought about this too but then you'd have so many filling it out "because they have too" and just checking boxes without researching candidates. Is that any better then not voting?

The conventional wisdom is high turnout benefits Democrats. Other countries have figured out how to implement mandatory voting with people who have no preference too.

Transistor · Nov 6, 2018

Redhead On Moped said:
Personally, I feel it cheapens the process and strips it of its solemness and dignity. That's just how I feel anyways, I'm not alone in the matter though.

Dignity went out the window when this country started electing nazis and fascists.

If a free pack of fries gets someone out there to vote, I'm all for it.

Deleted member 42 · Nov 6, 2018

why are y'all talking about this shit right now

US Midterm Elections 2018 |OT| Babs is Surging

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Vodka martini, dirty, with Tito's please

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