Yeah the 538 jump is from some Change Research polls. One showing McDaniel beating Hyde-Smith in the 3-way (technically 4-way) by 1 point, with Espy in 1st. And a separate poll showing Espy with a comfortable lead against McDaniel.
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US PoliERA 2018 |OT11| The Hunt for Blue November
- Thread starter Midnight Jon
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It's really just very far north states. MN gonna be dark and raining/snowing when most people trying to vote. And that's gonna effect Dems more than Rs. A lot of people in the cities without their own cars just aren't gonna show.
Hey Trump is taking the entire day off to watch results as they come in.... at 7pm EST.
"so in season five of the series, a democrat wins a senate election against a crazy guy in Mississippi because the regular republican wasn't evil enough and-
"You're recycling the fucking Doug Jones plotline? Get the hell out of my office."
Man that's all they need a few weeks after getting thrashed in the midterms, a Roy Moore 2.0 costing them a deep red seat in a special election runoff.
Remember when we had a POTUS that actually did the job? Those were the times, right?
Doug Jones will be spending more time in MS than DC or AL for a month lol
I'd even say there's uniform bias more often than not, but there's not much of a trend on which way that bias goes.
Well I just hope with the free time he has plenty of time to tweet.
You know, Wicker isn't that far ahead himself. He's ahead enough to win easily, but I expect he usually wins by like 20.
Both sides garbage from the NYT and most media is perhaps the most damaging result of drinking the "USA is the best at everything ever" Kool-Aid.
If we are the Pinnacle of the universe, how can at least half of us be rotten?? It just can't be!
The legendary quest to find that single good Republican will be long and full of pain.
If we are the Pinnacle of the universe, how can at least half of us be rotten?? It just can't be!
The legendary quest to find that single good Republican will be long and full of pain.
"David Baria leads 86-2 among black voters, but trails 76-14 among white voters."
two americas indeed, holy shit
I want to believe, although Change sucks.
The best part about Espy winning is he would be seated almost immediately, throwing a wrench into any of McConnell's plans for the lame duck session - the Senate would suddenly be 50-50 and he wouldn't be able to lose a single vote.
No one pulled this grown man aside to tell him that he had toilet paper stuck to his shoes.
I have a 3D puzzle of Cinderella's Castle that last night I put some blue lights in and around. You better believe I am going to light that up proudly if we at least take the House.
Look at 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2014.
I'd even say there's uniform bias more often than not, but there's not much of a trend on which way that bias goes.
The bias goes against the outcome every year but 2010, where it was basically dead on.
Yes, combined with her being WAY behind relative to Biden, Warren, Sanders and I think most importantly, Harris. Also something I can talk about on Discord if you're on there.
Cruz totally didn't watch Buffy or Angel - everyone knows they're not dead, just demons without a soul.
And who do demons without a soul vote for?
Dems, because Vamps aren't fucking evil, man, just soulless.
I'm starting to believe as well.
A Sununu upset would be my favorite part of this midterm after seeing the Gillum + Nelson ticket beat Desantis + Scott, Abrams take out Kemp, Beto vanquish Cruz and King be kicked to the curb with all his Nazi BS.
Kander doesn't reek of Kennedy flair AND he hitched himself to a weird wagon with his pro-gun anti-gun stance - and eventually got easily rolled as a "Hillary guy" - but Kander does now have a national presence via CNN and other regular appearances. I think he's running for mayor or something now, but the heat behind Beto and Abrahms is geometrically more potent and the stakes and spotlight are crazy right now. So circumstance AND candidacy are combining with several really impressive "young guns," including Gillum.
If you mean openly racist, yes
The only reason he isn't in the Senate today is because Cochran used his racism to mobilize black people to vote in the GOP Primary runoff just to keep McDaniel out. McDaniel responded by suing because, you know, black people aren't supposed to count or something
Espy's at the exact same level as Baria. If its McDaniel maybe some Republicans defect. Otherwise they all fall in line and he gets like 41% in the run-off.
Students working to deliver IL13 for Betsy Londrigan. This line goes down 3 hallways, and then down *four flights of stairs*, around a corner, and down another hallway. It's been this way for hours.
https://www.facebook.com/239183064656/posts/10158150506534657/
https://www.facebook.com/239183064656/posts/10158150506534657/
Good. That's Betsy's path to victory, because the other parts of the district will be nowhere near as favorable to her.
NPR is actually pretty conservative in terms of news reporting - they got existentially threatened during the Bush years and never really recovered, so while all of the content except news practically reeks of corduroy sports jackets with leather elbow patches, their news reporting is absurdly vanilla and both sidesy. I could see a real, book reading, old school conservative thinking this.
I'd love to be wrong but I just don't see us winning the senate. The fact that we even have a chance is impressive given the states that are on the block this time around. I'll happily settle for a 35+ gain in the House.
Watch him become impatient during the day and start tweeting about how he is hearing from "people" that illegals are voting, liberals are intimidating/influencing people at polling stations, and that liberal voters are committing voter fraud by voting more than once, voting in dead people's names etc.
Agreed. Betsy's office has people giving rides to other early voting locations to students who don't want to wait in line here. They won't be able to do that tomorrow (ED voting is by precinct, EV it doesn't matter). We're making sure no student gives up due to the line.
He ducked out of the mayor's race because of PTSD.
I wouldn't say he got "easily rolled" though. Hillary lost the state by 19 points and he only lost by 3. If the election happened before the Comey letter dropped he'd have won.
I would say without the PSTD if McCaskill retired and it was Kander vs Hawley he'd be running away with it.
I just meant by association - goes from being new dem hopeful veteran giant killer to "Hillary guy with the blindfold stunt" and can't maintain the momentum. He's still a good candidate on paper.
Lol people thinking being right about Trump in 2016 makes you an all knowing God now. Can't wait to see them knocked back hard to reality.
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