Nintendo FY3/2019 2nd Quarter Earnings Release, Supplemental Information & Top Selling Titles

Nuclear Muffin · Oct 30, 2018

AniHawk said:
i feel like nsmbu dx was created when certain things fell out of the fiscal year plan - namely, yoshi and fire emblem. yoshi i could still see happening in march, but fire emblem is probably may or later.

I knew about NSMBUdx as early as late 2017, so that's very unlikely to be true.

What's more likely is that something else was supposed to release in Jan-March that has now been internally delayed (Probably Yoshi's Crafted World - it was in a very rough state during E3 2017) and Nintendo felt the need to fill the gap by pushing back NSMBUdx. Basically the DKCTF Wii U strategy.

That being said, you're right about 2019. That is basically going to be the Switch's equivilent to the 3DS' 2013. The year where the big guns are finally all ready and the system explodes! It's gonna be incredible! (Hell! The lineup is already reminiscient of it! Let alone what else gets announced!)

Zedark · Oct 30, 2018

Nuclear Muffin said:
This isn't a normal mainline Pokemon though. I would agree with you if this was a proper Gen 8 game that succeeded Sun/Moon, but it's not. It's a remake of a remake that is positioning itself as a spinoff of sorts, using mechanics from a spinoff game.

It could still sell in the same ball park, but it's far from a sure thing.

USUM sold a ton of hardware for the 3ds, though, so not being the next gen game doesn't mean it can't move massive amounts of hardware.

Simba1 · Oct 30, 2018

Do we have hardware comparison numbers with PS4 for full second year on market?

Deleted member 5535 · Oct 30, 2018

mazi said:
1. holy shit mario kart 7 is still selling A LOT
2. i was hoping captain toad will join the million seller club. does it still have a chance?
3. while 2.1 million is still an amazing number for a new IP and for a game in the fighting genre, it's still a bit sad that ARMS is pretty much dead sales-wise.

I doubt Captain Toad will reach it. But like Bayonetta 2, it probably sold better than the Wii U version

Deleted member 2340 · Oct 30, 2018

CaviarMeths said:
Nah. I'm from an alternate future timeline where the Switch actually did ship 20m for the fiscal year. Let me tell you what the response was.

"This was obviously always going to happen. Nintendo always makes conservative estimates. But will the momentum keep up? All the big AAA games are skipping Switch this year. I expect it to drop off an maybe sell 10m this year and finish around 60m LTD. Also, Switch replaces Wii U and 3DS and should be expected to outsell both of them combined at minimum to be considered a success."

Cant speak for anyone else but I have my pride so I'll admit I was wrong if they end up selling the 20 million.

Sheepshakey · Oct 30, 2018

I can already see them achieving more than 20 mil. With Pokemon, Smash and Mario they will surely reach around 22 mil.

KtSlime · Oct 30, 2018

MrTired said:
They don't need to force it on retailer's just give them a buy back option or the ability to cut the price and take the money out Nintendo's cut.

Not all countries permit this.

Deleted member 10737 · Oct 30, 2018

Sheepshakey said:
I can already see them achieving more than 20 mil. With Pokemon, Smash and Mario they will surely reach around 22 mil.

i mean they know their chances better than anyone. surely if they felt like they couldn't get there they would have revised their forecast.

Nuclear Muffin · Oct 30, 2018

Zedark said:
USUM sold a ton of hardware for the 3ds, though, so not being the next gen game doesn't mean it can't move massive amounts of hardware.

That only sold so much because it cannibalised Sun/Moon to do so. After the Pokemon Stars rumour came to light, LOADS of people just decided to wait it out for the updated version.

The only reason why US/UM has done so well (now the second highest selling 3rd version of all time, behind only Pokemon Yellow; having just outsold Pokemon Crystal) is because it came out so ridiculously soon after Sun/Moon (and because its existence was leaked long before its release). All of the sales you see for it would've otherwise have gone to S/M (which will now never manage to catch X/Y, despite the Pokemon Go effect). US/UM killed its legs stone cold dead immediately upon release as it made S/M completely redundant.

AniHawk · Oct 30, 2018

Nuclear Muffin said:
I knew about NSMBUdx as early as late 2017, so that's very unlikely to be true.

What's more likely is that something else was supposed to release in Jan-March that has now been internally delayed (Probably Yoshi's Crafted World - it was in a very rough state during E3 2017) and Nintendo felt the need to fill the gap by pushing back NSMBUdx. Basically the DKCTF Wii U strategy.

That being said, you're right about 2019. That is basically going to be the Switch's equivilent to the 3DS' 2013. The year where the big guns are finally all ready and the system explodes! It's gonna be incredible! (Hell! The lineup is already reminiscient of it! Let alone what else gets announced!)

ah that also makes sense. nsmbu dx seemed far more primed to work as a holiday title than an early 2019 one, but it'll do well wherever they launch it. with january, it tells me they're counting in big turnout for the next quarter (maybe 10m units sold), and then hope nsmbu dx creates enough sales that it clears out another 5m. maybe if something's there in april, they can ship a little more than they usually do in march too. even if they do stuff the channels a bit, i think 20 million should be a lock for 2019-2020, especially if a revision launches.

Zedark · Oct 30, 2018

Simba1 said:
Do we have hardware comparison numbers with PS4 for full second year on market?

Please don't. Ps4/Switch skewed comparisons are so boring to read lol

AniHawk · Oct 30, 2018

mazi said:
i mean they know their chances better than anyone. surely if they felt like they couldn't get there they would have revised their forecast.

i'm sure they know it's at least a little hard right now. iwata made an outlandish, and unrealistic goal for the wii u in its second fiscal year, and only revised downward after the holiday season. they're probably waiting for december to end to get their bearings and then see what the damage is or if they can still hit their goals.

MrTired · Oct 30, 2018

KtSlime said:
Not all countries permit this.

Retailers in Europe, US require it to do business.

Hugo Scamander · Oct 30, 2018

Y'all need to update the it prints money meme with Mr Furukawa.

CaviarMeths · Oct 30, 2018

AniHawk said:
ah that also makes sense. nsmbu dx seemed far more primed to work as a holiday title than an early 2019 one, but it'll do well wherever they launch it. with january, it tells me they're counting in big turnout for the next quarter (maybe 10m units sold), and then hope nsmbu dx creates enough sales that it clears out another 5m. maybe if something's there in april, they can ship a little more than they usually do in march too. even if they do stuff the channels a bit, i think 20 million should be a lock for 2019-2020, especially if a revision launches.

Either next fiscal year or the one after that will be peak. Even if Nintendo misses the 20m target this year, that seems to low for the next 2 years.

Ryng™ · Oct 30, 2018

People on the firsts page still thinking 20 million is a crazy forecast... Literally wat.

I don't know if people realize how strong are the Nintendo line up and bundles in the next months.

Nuclear Muffin · Oct 30, 2018

AniHawk said:
ah that also makes sense. nsmbu dx seemed far more primed to work as a holiday title than an early 2019 one, but it'll do well wherever they launch it. with january, it tells me they're counting in big turnout for the next quarter (maybe 10m units sold), and then hope nsmbu dx creates enough sales that it clears out another 5m. maybe if something's there in april, they can ship a little more than they usually do in march too. even if they do stuff the channels a bit, i think 20 million should be a lock for 2019-2020, especially if a revision launches.

They will definitely have something big for April. I'm betting on Fire Emblem: The Three Houses myself (Nintendo know by now that RPGs on their platforms do especially well in February (US) and April (EU) and have been pushing almost all of their big RPG releases into those months ever since 2013 with Fire Emblem Awakening (on an aside, Fire Emblem Fates bombed tremendously in Europe precisely because it was delayed and it missed that crucial window of opportunity - they will be very keen on ensuring that mistake doesn't happen again!)

I wouldn't be surprised if they even try to repeat the same One-Big-First-Party-Game-Per-Month strategy that worked so well for the 3DS back in 2013. They're quite well positioned to do so and the library for 2019 is already looking strikingly similar to 3DS' 2013 lineup...

20+ million in 2019 will definitely be a lock for the Switch if they can do that (and a revision is pretty likely too; after all, the 2DS launched that year as well and so far, it looks like history is about to repeat itself once again! :D)

Zedark · Oct 30, 2018

Nuclear Muffin said:
That only sold so much because it cannibalised Sun/Moon to do so. After the Pokemon Stars rumour came to light, LOADS of people just decided to wait it out for the updated version.

The only reason why US/UM has done so well (now the second highest selling 3rd version of all time, behind only Pokemon Yellow; having just outsold Pokemon Crystal) is because it came out so ridiculously soon after Sun/Moon (and because its existence was leaked long before its release). All of the sales you see for it would've otherwise have gone to S/M (which will now never manage to catch X/Y, despite the Pokemon Go effect). US/UM killed its legs stone cold dead immediately upon release as it made S/M completely redundant.

I don't think that's true. Pokémon games don't boost two holiday seasons in a row, so the hardware selling power of USUM came on its own merits, not because it came quickly after SM. We haven't seen XY or DP boost 3ds or DS hardware during two separate holiday seasons, and I doubt SM would have if USUM wasn't released. Sure, USUM numbers might be a bit higher due to this effect, but it's not the reason it was moving hardware: the reason for that is because it is a major pokémon, just like, in my opinion, Let's Go is.

Femto0 · Oct 30, 2018

So that 20 mil sales is still possible?

Rodjer · Oct 30, 2018

higashi042 said:
I think RE2 won't be huge.

A remake of a beloved classic in third person is not going to be huge?

Peek-a-boo! · Oct 30, 2018

Another thing.

Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker should be on that million selling list!

I absolutely adored that game on the Wii U.

Crazy how Donkey Kong did those numbers, especially at full price, given how little things have changed from the Wii U version. Personally speaking, I don't particularly want to see another Donkey Kong game until Nintendo's next platform...

CaviarMeths · Oct 30, 2018

Femto0 said:
So that 20 mil sales is still possible?

Possible but unlikely IMO.

takriel · Oct 30, 2018

Peek-a-boo! said:
Another thing.

Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker should be on that million selling list!

I absolutely adored that game on the Wii U.

Crazy how Donkey Kong did those numbers, especially at full price, given how little things have changed from the Wii U version. Personally speaking, I don't particularly want to see another Donkey Kong game until Nintendo's next platform...

You'll get another fucking Donkey Kong game from Retro and you'll love it!

Philly Cheesesteak · Oct 30, 2018

Femto0 said:
So that 20 mil sales is still possible?

We will see. If it does, I'd imagine many of them will be Smash Bundles or Fortnite bundles. Plus we don't know if Nintendo plans on any price cut campaigns the holiday season as well.

Ephonk · Oct 30, 2018

Femto0 said:
So that 20 mil sales is still possible?

It is, but they would need a top Q3 (which they'll probably have) and a very strong Q4.
So 11m for Q3 and 4m for Q4.

Q4 has 2D mario though, which gives it an advantage as Nintendo usually doesn't have such a high profile game (even if it's a port) so early in the quarter. I would expect a big march game as well.

unicornKnight · Oct 30, 2018

AniHawk said:
i feel like nsmbu dx was created when certain things fell out of the fiscal year plan - namely, yoshi and fire emblem. yoshi i could still see happening in march, but fire emblem is probably may or later.

I don't expect NSMBUdx to have any significant impact, it's just a decent* release to save January from emptiness.

* decent business wise, as a game itself it's pretty great and it will be even better on Switch for tabletop mode / local multi on the go. Too bad they refuse to add online features. Online multiplayer and VS mode (NSMB DS) would make this a major release.

Nuclear Muffin · Oct 30, 2018

Zedark said:
I don't think that's true. Pokémon games don't boost two holiday seasons in a row, so the hardware selling power of USUM came on its own merits, not because it came quickly after SM. We haven't seen XY or DP boost 3ds or DS hardware during two separate holiday seasons, and I doubt SM would have if USUM wasn't released. Sure, USUM numbers might be a bit higher due to this effect, but it's not the reason it was moving hardware: the reason for that is because it is a major pokémon, just like, in my opinion, Let's Go is.

What was moving hardware (and the sales of Pokemon games) was the Pokemon Go effect. X/Y gained an additional 3.5 million sales thanks to that, well after its legs had already come to a screeching halt (it was on track to be the worst selling mainline Pokemon game of all time by quite a margin, all the way up until it was revived by Pokemon Go) and Pokemon Sun/Moon was vastly outselling X/Y launch aligned until US/UM was announced; at which point, its legs immediately died.

Then US/UM go on to vastly outperform all expectations. It was not selling off of its own back, it was selling because of the leftover sales from S/M and the Pokemon Go effect. S/M was well on track to outsell X/Y until it was chopped off at the knees. Why would anyone buy S/M when it was about to be made completely redundant by an enhanced version being sold at the same price? People rightly decided to wait, and the explosive sales of US/UM are the proof of that.

Herb Alpert · Oct 30, 2018

Femto0 said:
So that 20 mil sales is still possible?

They will end up pretty close but won't reach it imo.
Strong q3 is a lock, but they'll also need a really strong q4, which is still possible, Switch seeming to have more q4 legs than usual Nintendo systems, plus nsmb dx and other unknown titles.

KtSlime · Oct 30, 2018

MrTired said:
Retailers in Europe, US require it to do business.

And in Japan, you cannot do it. Retailers are responsible for what they buy.

tolkir · Oct 30, 2018

Peek-a-boo! said:
Another thing.

Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker should be on that million selling list!

I absolutely adored that game on the Wii U.

Crazy how Donkey Kong did those numbers, especially at full price, given how little things have changed from the Wii U version. Personally speaking, I don't particularly want to see another Donkey Kong game until Nintendo's next platform...

It isn't a million selling list, only the 10 best-selling titles.

Marukoban · Oct 30, 2018

KtSlime said:
Not all countries permit this.

Is there no consignment in Japan?

Emilijo · Oct 30, 2018

Operating Income for last 2 quarters:

Nintendo: $544.35 million
PlayStation: $1.548 billion

Nuclear Muffin · Oct 30, 2018

tolkir said:
It isn't a million selling list, only the 10 best-selling titles.

There is a million seller list for this quarter here: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/181030_3e.pdf

Captain Toad isn't on the list...

Superking · Oct 30, 2018

Mario Tennis Aces
Quarter: 0.78 million units
LTD: 2.16 million units

Holy shit. Aside from the Splatoon numbers, this one's the most impressive imo. I thought the Wii U Mario Tennis game pretty much killed the series. But this is like the best sales number for any Mario sports title, isn't it?

Herb Alpert · Oct 30, 2018

Emilijo said:
Operating Income for last 2 quarters:

Nintendo: $544.35 million
PlayStation: $1.548 million

I admire your dedication.

KtSlime · Oct 30, 2018

Marukoban said:
Is there no consignment in Japan?

If that is what it is called, no there isn't. That's why sales numbers are so valuable here.

Deleted member 3017 · Oct 30, 2018

Emilijo said:
Operating Income for last 2 quarters:

Nintendo: $544.35 million
PlayStation: $1.548 million

Man, Sony's hurtin'!

(you mean billion)

SinCityAssassin · Oct 30, 2018

Oblivion said:
Holy shit. Aside from the Splatoon numbers, this one's the most impressive imo. I thought the Wii U Mario Tennis game pretty much killed the series. But this is like the best sales number for any Mario sports title, isn't it?

That would be Strikers Charged at around 2.6 million.

Marukoban · Oct 30, 2018

Emilijo said:
Operating Income for last 2 quarters:

Nintendo: $544.35 million
PlayStation: $1.548 million

Huh? How did you get Playstation's number?
It looks too low.

KtSlime said:
If that is what it is called, no there isn't. That's why sales numbers are so valuable here.

It's basically you put your products with the retailer for them to sell, but the ownership of the products is still yours.
If there's any unsold items, it will be returned to you.

MrTired · Oct 30, 2018

KtSlime said:
And in Japan, you cannot do it. Retailers are responsible for what they buy.

Yes and the US is responsible for the nearly entire American 40% share and Europe is responsible for most of Rest of the world 36% of Switch sales. So they can push a significant amount of Switch's if the need to flood the channel.

Simba1 · Oct 30, 2018

Zedark said:
Please don't. Ps4/Switch skewed comparisons are so boring to read lol

OK, than 3DS/Switch hardware comparison sales from launch for same time period. :)

dean_rcg · Oct 30, 2018

11m Q3 and 4m Q4 looks doable to me. Averaging just under 4m per month Q3 seems highly likely.

Zedark · Oct 30, 2018

Nuclear Muffin said:
What was moving hardware (and the sales of Pokemon games) was the Pokemon Go effect. X/Y gained an additional 3.5 million sales thanks to that, well after its legs had already come to a screeching halt (it was on track to be the worst selling mainline Pokemon game of all time by quite a margin, all the way up until it was revived by Pokemon Go) and Pokemon Sun/Moon was vastly outselling X/Y launch aligned until US/UM was announced; at which point, its legs immediately died.

Then US/UM go on to vastly outperform all expectations. It was not selling off of its own back, it was selling because of the leftover sales from S/M and the Pokemon Go effect. S/M was well on track to outsell X/Y until it was chopped off at the knees. Why would anyone buy S/M when it was about to be made completely redundant by an enhanced version being sold at the same price? People rightly decided to wait, and the explosive sales of US/UM are the proof of that.

Pokémon XY was at 14.70M units as of March 31st 2016 (Source). So, at most 1.6M units sold can be ascribed to Pokémon Go. That's definitely a Go effect, but let's not exaggerate the effect. Go effect + SM lifted sales up from expectations, I agree, but that baseline performance was not significantly lower than what it did: it's at 7.96M units sold, that's great but not earth-shattering - and definitely not a major jump from for example Pokémon Emerald, which did 6.32M at the very least (last reported number before it disappeared from the radar due to no selling a million during a fiscal year). I simply don't see how that jump, which is 2 million at best compared to other 3rd version games, can cause cause major hardware sales of the type seen duing the holiday of 2017.

As for SM, it indeed was cut short, in part due to USUM, but I also think that the Pokémon Go craze of H2 CY2017 frontloaded its sales due to a spike in franchise awareness.

casiopao · Oct 30, 2018

Emilijo said:
Operating Income for last 2 quarters:

Nintendo: $544.35 million
PlayStation: $1.548 million

Haha. Playstation got dowgraded?

Mory Dunz · Oct 30, 2018

Yes, it's possible that a Q4 game could still be announced, but at this point it wouldn't be a major HW mover. So I don't think it applies much to the whole 20 million or bust discussion that keeps happening.

Q4 is NSMBU, Yoshi or FE or neither, and then smaller games (maybe a port)

They aren't about to drop some AAA bomb and then release it by March lol

silva1991 said:
BOTW will likely outsell Odyssey. Crazy.

unless it bundled, I don't see it

Jade1962 · Oct 30, 2018

ggx2ac said:
Proportion of first party software sales this quarter: 71.0%
Cumulative: 76.8%
(※ Proportion of first-party software sales to total dedicated video game software
sales)

Digital Sales in Japanese Yen this quarter: 20.6 billion
Cumulative: 39.1 billion
(※ Digital sales include downloadable versions of packaged software, download-
only software and add-on content.)

Proportion of Digital Sales this quarter: 26.0%
Cumulative: 25.1%
(※ Proportion of digital sales to total dedicated video game software sales)

Does this mean 76% of software sales are Nintendo titles?

Pokémon · Oct 30, 2018

I still believe in the 20 million units shipped because this holiday season will be gigantic for Nintendo. Both Super Mario Party and Pokémon will push the system for children and families. Super Mario Party is already selling exceptionally well and Pokémon was never a series that had huge pre-order numbers so it doesn't really matter that the Let's Go games haven't set the pre-order charts on fire. Smash looks like it will have the biggest launch of a Nintendo first party game to date.

People are making the same mistake with NSMBUdx like they did with MK8D. "It's just a port and it won't sell."

Pablo Mesa said:
I actually want to see what type of post we get IF nintendo DO REACH the 20M mark.

I can assure you crows won't be eaten and goalposts will be moved like always. "Next year though, next year Nintendo is doomed for sure."

Delio · Oct 30, 2018

SinCItyAssassin said:
That would be Strikers Charged at around 2.6 million.

Still waiting on a sequel.

Superking · Oct 30, 2018

SinCItyAssassin said:
That would be Strikers Charged at around 2.6 million.

Huh. Didn't realize Strikers was that popular. On the other hand, I guess I can see it cause I don't think that the GC Mario Tennis/Golf/Baseball games even hit a million (in some cases, even half a mil).

Celine · Oct 30, 2018

Peek-a-boo! said:
Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker should be on that million selling list!

I absolutely adored that game on the Wii U.

;-)

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