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Which team are you in, hooman? (NOTE: Vote-changing disabled!)

  • #TeamReal

    Votes: 2,046 67.7%
  • #TeamFake

    Votes: 978 32.3%

  • Total voters
    3,024
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.

Jonneh

Good Vibes Gaming
Verified
Oct 24, 2017
4,538
UK
I think TeamFake is growing a little lol.
23m3fnn.jpg
 

NoName999

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 29, 2017
5,906
Good lord. Has Detective Era searched their trash yet?

You joke, but going through the trash is a pretty good way to get secrets if said company doesn't have a proper destruction system.

Like there's a reason, things are double shredded or burned beyond recognition and then thrown away in special containers.

And this is just to not leave a PAPER trail
 

Thatguy

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
6,207
Seattle WA
And then there's the roster. There's been a real pattern with the Smash roster, and it's that the characters basically fall into three categories. Main characters of mid tier Nintendo series, well known characters from prominent non-Nintendo franchises, and second tier characters from popular Nintendo series.

So far the reveals fit this pattern. K Rool and Ridley are second tier characters from major Nintendo franchises. Simon and Richter are two main characters from Castlevania. Etc.

But the leak roster? Each one makes some sense, but together they stretch credibility. Chorus Kids are fine. Shadow is fine, as Sonic is big enough that another character from the franchise makes sense. Same with Ken. But Banjo? Only reason he'd be here is if Nintendo made a deal with Rare to get some N64 classic games and he was part of the deal. Isaac? I guess he was an assist trophy that one time, but Golden Sun is a deep cut. Mach Rider too. And then Geno is a deep cut Mario character who was only in one game.

Like each character is possible, but together it's a bit much. Unless I've underestimated how much Sakurai is just going for full catering to the hardcore fanbase.
This is why I doubt it too. It panders way too much to internet forums, which is also coincidentally the only audience that follows leaks so closely. If it was just 1 deep cut I would consider that plausible. But 4 deep cuts? No way. We already had 1 in K Rool too. Ridley isn't a deep cut nor is Dark Samus. Metroid just finally got it's villains.
 

Maple

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,734
The idea that this is fake just got a lot more convoluted.

You now have to assume that the guy who faked everything not only went through all of the trouble of creating all of this stuff, but actually decided to frame someone else as the leaker instead of leaking it anonymously.
 

kirby_fox

Member
Oct 29, 2017
5,733
Midwest USA
With all these insiders saying they know info, I'll be more than happy as a normie to verify and not leak anything if they want to prove themselves. I promise on my journalism degree I don't use to not leak.

I'm thinking there's not much but trusted sources though.
 
Feb 24, 2018
5,247
I guess then I'm on Team Wait And See and Team Confused, I've gotten headache reading this thread and trying to figure everything out and just want to wait until we get new official info to make an actual guess at this point.
 

Alexhex

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,881
Canada
someone print out that clean(ish?) rip of the background we have, find some lighting identical to the leak, and send me a snapchat vid so I can take a screenshot. Then we can get some real comparisons cookin!
 

NotLiquid

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
34,781
If people don't want to compromise their sources, then they shouldn't even be leaking stuff from them in the first place.

Like why bother revealing things from 2nd hand sources if said sources doesn't apparently care enough about their security+ certificate and NDA clause.

And let's face it: It's not gonna be hard to figure out who the source is.
This thread currently sits at a poll with 2000 people thinking this rumor is real. Beyond that, Smash fans are well documented for their perserverance in regards to sensitive subjects like this. This series has one of the highest level of hoaxes in any game out there, because people are that attached to it.

Let's not mince words about this - Era might argue otherwise, but with how much traction this leak has made, a lot of people are going to end up really angry if this doesn't end up becoming real. That would be unfair to the amount of effort Sakurai and his team has poured into this project.

Which is likely why a lot of "insiders"are speaking up about it now the best they can. To say "hey, maybe cool your jets - because from my own knowledge this doesn't seem right". Considering most of these guys rarely comment on Smash rumors, that seems notable enough to me, and a lot of people saying it aren't what I'd call clout chasers here.
 

Thatguy

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
6,207
Seattle WA
If this turns out to be fake, holy hell at the amount of work the faker put into this. Creating a fake image supposedly linked to a random PoS display company, as well as faking that they were someone else. It just seems to surreal that I can't imagine someone doing this for a fucking video game.
NX controller 3D print was more elaborate and way more work.
 

IzzyRX

Avenger
Oct 28, 2017
5,816
I'm starting to lean more towards #teamfake. Considering how complex and intricate fake leaks have gotten these days, I could see this being pulled off as crazy as it may be. And the fake ones are nearly ALWAYS blurry. Why are they always blurry. I also just don't see us being due for 5 more brand new characters. Even if some of them could be echos we're not aware of (like possibly Mach Rider and Issac), I just don't see it.
Real leaks can be blurry too.
I'm starting to lost faith on it, but I'm still team real.
 

JahIthBer

Member
Jan 27, 2018
10,383
This thread currently sits at a poll with 2000 people thinking this rumor is real. Beyond that, Smash fans are well documented for their perserverance in regards to sensitive subjects like this. This series has one of the highest level of hoaxes in any game out there, because people are that attached to it.

Let's not mince words about this - Era might argue otherwise, but with how much traction this leak has made, a lot of people are going to end up really angry if this doesn't end up becoming real. That would be unfair to the amount of effort Sakurai and his team has poured into this project.

Which is likely why a lot of "insiders"are speaking up about it now the best they can. To say "hey, maybe cool your jets - because from my own knowledge this doesn't seem right". Considering most of these guys rarely comment on Smash rumors, that seems notable enough to me, and a lot of people saying it aren't what I'd call clout chasers here.
The insiders have been wrong about a lot of things, ironically it's always been idiots on 4chan who leak this stuff, while "verified" people on Gamefaq's & Twitter get it wrong 90% of the time.
 

Owl

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,144
California
The idea that this is fake just got a lot more convoluted.

You now have to assume that the guy who faked everything not only went through all of the trouble of creating all of this stuff, but actually decided to frame someone else as the leaker instead of leaking it anonymously.
Is that really convoluted? Isnt that what you would do if you wanted to give the leak the air of legitimacy? It's what made this leake much more believable.
 

JRBechard

Member
Oct 26, 2017
103
Montreal
My Phoenix Wright instincts lead me to believe:
The leak is real, but Eric Birard was framed by a vindictive co-worker.

If it's fake, it's by far the best fake I've ever seen.

Here are my claims:

1. What's written on the Snapchat images doesn't make sense.
- If he's saying "**** you Nintendo lol, I'm leaking your game", it would be ultra-dumb considering he signed an NDA and he didn't hide his name.
- If he's saying "**** Nintendo lol, what a dumb company to be printing things for", it would still be ultra-dumb considering his NDA, and it just makes him seem like a stupid person, posting stuff like that about his work. (But it's still a definite possibility)
- If you'd be framing someone, that's exactly what you'd write.

2. The work environment is completely real.
- The people, companies and locations all add up. Revealing your real identity even for a fake leak would be risky.
- Using this to your advantage to get someone fired is totally possible.

3. Modifying the full character artwork would be too much work.
- Adding characters is one thing, but repositionning most of the characters and adding parts that were hidden would be the work of a monk. You could point to the Rayman fake and say that people are ready to invest a lot of time in fakes or say the blur loosens the need for extreme precision; but even so, as a graphic designer myself, modifying a complex digital painting would be way more annoying than creating new assets and would not be worth the gigantic effort needed.

Last but not least: Occam's Razor

Option A, it's fake:

Reposting this gem,

"Yeah it's the craziest person in the world going out of their way to make incredibly boring cardboard cut-out models using promotional material from the upcoming Grinch movie because he's thinking 47 steps ahead and knows that both Bandai-Namco and Universal studios contract the same obscure French marketing company. To this end, he then got himself an office, printed out the name of an employee of said company, and haphazardly half blurred out the name because, once again, he's some kind of super genius beyond the mental capacities of mortal man and he knew that the internet's crack team of cybersleuths would find his red-herring name in seconds.

This absolute Einstein of social engineering also happens to moonlight as an expert artist and after presumably spending hours carefully cutting and pasting characters from the Smash poster, he then went out of his way to produce 7 more drawings of his own with obscure elements like vines for Isaac that hardly anyone would be able to make out, and then, for the fun of it, he saw to making a completely unique drawing of the blank version of Battlefield just because he could. He made sure that this fake roster of his perfectly mirrored one posted on 4chan last month by someone whose first language clearly isn't English because he knew that people would immediately make the connection to the French marketing company that he is pretending produced this image. The fact that 5 new characters lines up with the 5 missing stages from Corocoro was all part of his master plan. He also made sure this coincided with Nintendo renewing relevant trademarks.

The lengths you have to go to believe that this is all an incredibly elaborate leak would make this man one of the most intelligent people to ever walk the Earth. Apparently he knew where people would look at every turn, making him at the minimum more competent than the entire government of Saudi Arabia when it comes to fakery.

I suggest you think about which outcome is the most likely here"

Option B: It's real
- If insider's know about other characters that aren't in the artwork, i t could be esily explained by saying they're DLC or this artwork simply isn't the final version.

It's the perfect internet-age crime: To get your co-worker fired, with no way to prove you did it.
Also, I like the leaked characters so I'm biased.
 

Weiss

User requested ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
64,265
This thread currently sits at a poll with 2000 people thinking this rumor is real. Beyond that, Smash fans are well documented for their perserverance in regards to sensitive subjects like this. This series has one of the highest level of hoaxes in any game out there, because people are that attached to it.

Let's not mince words about this - Era might argue otherwise, but with how much traction this leak has made, a lot of people are going to end up really angry if this doesn't end up becoming real. That would be unfair to the amount of effort Sakurai and his team has poured into this project.

Which is likely why a lot of "insiders"are speaking up about it now the best they can. To say "hey, maybe cool your jets - because from my own knowledge this doesn't seem right". Considering most of these guys rarely comment on Smash rumors, that seems notable enough to me, and a lot of people saying it aren't what I'd call clout chasers here.

It's not that I disagree, but I feel like if they're going to use their positions to say "cool your jets, it's not legit" then it's not unreasonable to want evidence. If we had one contradictory pic or video then this thread would not have taken off. Heck, you yourself are the one person who's put in the work creating a credible theory as to why the leak is fake, pointing out the inconsistencies on the background.

But again, the idea of being disappointed by a video game rumour is completely alien to me. Do people actually freak out over this to insiders?
 

Deleted member 176

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
37,160
The insiders have been wrong about a lot of things, ironically it's always been idiots on 4chan who leak this stuff, while "verified" people on Gamefaq's & Twitter get it wrong 90% of the time.
It makes sense. Insiders are a great way to do a controlled leak since they want to protect their source. For leaks Nintendo doesn't want to get out, it's better to be completely anonymous.
 

Big One

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,277
I feel like you guys are underestimating how difficult it is to leak something without any trail that might lead back to the source.
Actually saying, "I know something about Smash." already can lead a paper trail to his source, lol. It wouldn't be much different from revealing the information itself. That suggests that someone he knows in his personal life that knows something about Smash (likely Nintendo related) told him something. That's enough information to get somebody fired easily.
 
Nov 14, 2017
2,836
My Phoenix Wright instincts lead me to believe:
The leak is real, but Eric Birard was framed by a vindictive co-worker.

If it's fake, it's by far the best fake I've ever seen.

Here are my claims:

1. What's written on the Snapchat images doesn't make sense.
- If he's saying "**** you Nintendo lol, I'm leaking your game", it would be ultra-dumb considering he signed an NDA and he didn't hide his name.
- If he's saying "**** Nintendo lol, what a dumb company to be printing things for", it would still be ultra-dumb considering his NDA, and it just makes him seem like a stupid person, posting stuff like that about his work. (But it's still a definite possibility)
- If you'd be framing someone, that's exactly what you'd write.

2. The work environment is completely real.
- The people, companies and locations all add up. Revealing your real identity even for a fake leak would be risky.
- Using this to your advantage to get someone fired is totally possible.

3. Modifying the full character artwork would be too much work.
- Adding characters is one thing, but repositionning most of the characters and adding parts that were hidden would be the work of a monk. You could point to the Rayman fake and say that people are ready to invest a lot of time in fakes or say the blur loosens the need for extreme precision; but even so, as a graphic designer myself, modifying a complex digital painting would be way more annoying than creating new assets and would not be worth the gigantic effort needed.

Last but not least: Occam's Razor

Option A, it's fake:



Option B: It's real
- If insider's know about other characters that aren't in the artwork, i t could be esily explained by saying they're DLC or this artwork simply isn't the final version.

It's the perfect internet-age crime: To get your co-worker fired, with no way to prove you did it.
Also, I like the leaked characters so I'm biased.
 

Metto

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,111
It's not that I disagree, but I feel like if they're going to use their positions to say "cool your jets, it's not legit" then it's not unreasonable to want evidence. If we had one contradictory pic or video then this thread would not have taken off. Heck, you yourself are the one person who's put in the work creating a credible theory as to why the leak is fake, pointing out the inconsistencies on the background.

But again, the idea of being disappointed by a video game rumour is completely alien to me. Do people actually freak out over this to insiders?
Never mind Smash characters insiders can have some real shit lobbed at them even if their info is real. Emily was a pretty prominent insider but she's taken a total step back. Saying Ridley was in and the roster is Ultimate is her most recent leak and that was before E3
 

JahIthBer

Member
Jan 27, 2018
10,383
What if he forgot about the verified music rule and upon realising he posted pokemon music he knew that he HAD to cut Inciniroar as a result of its iron clad rulings.
Who knows if Inciniroar got cut, will be DLC or is still actually in the game, either way, i think personally Inciniroar got the boot to focus on a Gen 8 rep as DLC & most importantly being the first new Smash Ultimate Pokemon.
 

Kirbivore

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,931
It's not that I disagree, but I feel like if they're going to use their positions to say "cool your jets, it's not legit" then it's not unreasonable to want evidence. If we had one contradictory pic or video then this thread would not have taken off. Heck, you yourself are the one person who's put in the work creating a credible theory as to why the leak is fake, pointing out the inconsistencies on the background.

But again, the idea of being disappointed by a video game rumour is completely alien to me. Do people actually freak out over this to insiders?

In response I think it's because of the amount of traction this got is what is making them come out
 
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