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US PoliERA 2018 |OT11| The Hunt for Blue November
- Thread starter Midnight Jon
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Isn't this yet another easily proven lie? Like, doesn't he use Twitter from his personal phone?
Yup. I'm not overtly confident but I do think the race is ours to lose.
Whoa. Imagine if Warren shut down the "Pocahontas" stuff like this to start with.
It's whatever is left of her soul trying to make a break for it
Guys stop posting unfinished polls lol. I'm guilty of it too but this one is faaaaar from over.
What exactly is Silver saying that's new? Haven't we been saying for months the theme of this election is improving moderately upon Hillary's margins in suburbs and snapping back in the midwest/Obama-Trump areas?
I believe some of us last year even concluded at the old place the map would be a hybrid of 2012 and 2016.
I believe some of us last year even concluded at the old place the map would be a hybrid of 2012 and 2016.
It's almost as if their call for cvility was never sincere and they really just mean " shut up and let us steamroll you Democrats".
This is good because I've always been really wary of Romney-Clinton districts. Those areas always struck me more as center-right/soft Republicans and independents who hated Trump but were fine with GOP downballot (which is literally what they voted for) than budding new Democratic voters in the works. And swinging Obama-Trump areas back in Dems' direction is a good sign for 2020.
Gillum saying that he wasn't gonna be PC about it is the perfect tone to take.
That's what holder meant when he said when they go low, we kick them. Almost all Republican talking points fall apart with a little logic. We need more people like gillum who can treat people like this
I will tentatively say that the midwest snapping back so hard this year makes Trump's reelection very difficult if that pattern holds in two years. Even if he wins FL, NC, and OH again, he has no path without MI, PA, and WI unless he encroaches upon some deep-blue territory.
Where is the reporting fake? Nothing about this tweet discounts the reporting. Even if you use a landline most of the time, it doesn't mean the cell isn't hot as fuck.
Between people moving in from Puerto Rico due to the hurricane aftermath since 2016, Amendment 4 (restoring voting rights) seeming to be on-track to pass, and Gillum ahead in the governor's race, Florida could be really tough sledding for Trump in 2020.
That idiot expects us all to believe he is tweeting from a secure PC everytime he tweets? Lol. Guy is on his phone constantly. He can't go a moment without lying about the most basic things.
Romney-Clinton voters are the people that almost completely with the republican party platform and their current disagreements with republicans are about the window dressing.
It makes little sense to include them in a long term coalition.
Ari Melber approves.
Is she ripping fat clouds?
The problem is they're not secure.
It really varies by district. We have a number of Romney/Clinton districts where the incumbent is about to be tossed out on her ass (hi, Babs!) or has consistently trailed in polling (Bad Mimi in CA-45). Conversely, some of those seats have shown the incumbents to be a little more resilient, though still with a high likelihood of losing. Some open Romney/Clinton seats have shown large Democratic leads (CA-49). I wager that Hillary simply maxed out some of these seats, so even retaining her gains is a good thing.
We also have some Romney/Trump districts where we're polling spectacularly, though they tend to be open seats in the midwest (MI-11, e.g.).
The largest swings seem to be in two types of areas: Obama/Clinton suburban seats that had a Moderate Darling incumbent (Mike Coffman in CO-06 and Erik Paulsen in MN-03 are basically DOA) and Obama/Trump midwestern areas like IA-01.
But as some of us have said for over a year, the story seems to be retaining Hillary's gains in suburbs and slightly improving on them, and reclaiming territory in the midwest.
You need to seriously reconsider how you evaluate news. You are somehow believing (or presenting to believe) a single claim by a single person (not an news organization). That is a capital "B" Bad idea.
Also, authorities will take whatever steps they can to not detonate a bomb because it allows them to acquire massive amounts of evidence. Inspecting unexploded bombs is the primary way that bombers are caught.
Honestly, the fact that you haven't deleted this shitty post yet is something I find alarming.
Cohn did say most of the undecideds leaned Democratic and anti-Trump...
Her soul is trying to re enter her body, but she is standing strong.
I actually believe this is true. In the same way that my dog could not have been more human yesterday. We all have our limits.
Ya, but McConnel can't eat at a restaurant in peace. Let's talk about the important issues, like the caravan arriving at our southern border by Christmas!
This Hamilton thing is a great example of something that is nothing but would have been something had Warren or Clinton been involved because they would have given horrible answers that made it 1000 times worse
Not sure why. Watching the news this morning most Republicans are openly going with this. Hell, the President basically did when he said the media is spreading fake news.
The trump campaign had very little to do with me, I didn't even need a campaign or any help. I won on my own
It may not be new, but it's worth reiterating because it's a dynamic a lot of the conventional wisdom is missing, despite a lot of data to support it at this point (WI-Supreme Court, specials in WI, OH, PA, etc.) You're certainly right that it's something we've been talking quite a bit about around these parts, but it's something the media isn't taking enough note of (granted, they're all busy writing their GOP Comeback™ stories).
The problem with Trump when he is being "presidential" is he speaks in the same tone for everything. Mass shooting in Vegas? Bored and monotone. Moving an embassy? Bored and monotone. Bombs in the mail? Bored and monotone.
Speaking to the press or a crowd at his rallies? Excited, fired up, off the cuff, etc.
Speaking to the press or a crowd at his rallies? Excited, fired up, off the cuff, etc.
800 is such a low number it feels like the DoD doing the absolute minimum while technically following Trump's bullshit orders. And I guarantee you they are auxiliary unit that are tasked with assisting law enforcement already there.
CHUDs of course will imagine that they're tanks being driven right on the border.
NJ-03 is also an Obama/Trump district, albeit not in the midwest.
Good to see Andy leading in all turnout scenarios. I find it interesting he does better in the low-turnout model than in the standard one.
Good to see Andy leading in all turnout scenarios. I find it interesting he does better in the low-turnout model than in the standard one.
Our media at work
They don't care about the real issues. Trump filling the airwaves with meaningless nonsense and stupid controversy literally actually does give his actual evil shit cover. A normal president would not have been able to get away with this stuff. And if Romney were president the Republican Congress would have never been blatantly obvious with their bullshit
They have Trump to use as a bullet proof meat shield to clog up the airwaves... and that's why they think they can run on protecting preexisting conditions despite what they've done
I do think people here are a little too quick to dismiss the suburban gains Clinton made as merely being because of Trump. A lot of suburban areas have been trending Democratic since the late 80s, albeit unevenly. But in a lot of cases I don't think this is so much about Republican voters who dislike Trump and will go back to the GOP as it is Trump giving an extra nudge to a trend that was already occurring. I do think Midwestern snapback will be a bigger factor in this particular election, but I also think those suburban gains are meaningful.
Agreed. Some of those districts have been trending our way for some time. For example, Obama didn't lose AZ-02 and VA-10 by much in 2012, and he actually did decently in Orange County. Those areas would've continued to diversify and move our way without Trump; the margins were already narrowing. He just gave us a boost there.
I'm a little more suspicious of districts like TX-07 and TX-32, which went from 15-point Romney wins to 2-3-point Clinton ones because they don't have a history of being favorable to us.
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