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NPD Sep 2018: Spider-Man has largest launch in PlayStation exclusive history, PS4 best selling HW
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
- Start date
I believe this Spider-Man VS TLOU2 debate is complex and perhaps deserves it's own thread but for now, some context.
E3 2018 trailer views
It's still tracking some given that TLOU2 has cracked 16 million views in 4/5 months while spidey has done significantly less...
Its not the same thing because this is all after gameplay had already been seen. Lots of consumers watch one gameplay trailer and that's enough for them
Spideys debut gameplay trailer has almost 40 million views on a SINGLE CHANNEL
Although aggregated TLOU2 is still tracking higher. Obviously we don't know for certain so I'll say this...
If any IP has the potential it's The Last Of Us 2!
I also feel Mm Dreams (alongside PSVR) has the potential to be a supernova in sales and beat anything if Sony could actually market it right.
That game can impact an untouched market in videogame standards.
If marketed right it could sell to:
Schools, universities, developers, free lancers, real estate agents, tourism companies, programmers, artists, musicians, producers, architects, designers, modeling companies, youtubers, streamers, A.I companies, etc.
Heck even the weird stuff for people if not uploaded to their servers but uploaded to websites.
That game can impact an untouched market in videogame standards.
If marketed right it could sell to:
Schools, universities, developers, free lancers, real estate agents, tourism companies, programmers, artists, musicians, producers, architects, designers, modeling companies, youtubers, streamers, A.I companies, etc.
Heck even the weird stuff for people if not uploaded to their servers but uploaded to websites.
Lmao just when i thought i had read everything on this thread haha
Nah, I think TLOU did reach the mainstream, when a movie youtube channel I used to watch suddenly have a game movie review for The Last of Us and have rave review, you know TLOU have reach mainstream. I genuinely think TLOU2 is gonna have crazy sales right out the gate. I imagine most people who played TLOU1 is going to want buying TLOU2 day 1 or something like that.
If it's a huge hit in the eastern PS market it's possible. It's a big "IF" because the circumstances and potential of the game are uncharted territory when it comes to that market. But if it's embraced by that market kiss all PS records goodbye.
I fucked up the math
40 X 12 for spidey debut VS
16 X 4 TLOU since E3 2018
But that doesn't account for other debut gameplay trailers released a year ago. My apologies on that one
We'd already seen a solid chunk of Spider-Man gameplay at that point, but this was TLOU 2's gameplay debut. Kind of an apples and oranges situation.I believe this Spider-Man VS TLOU2 debate is complex and perhaps deserves it's own thread but for now, some context.
E3 2018 trailer views
It's still tracking some given that TLOU2 has cracked 16 million views in 4/5 months while spidey has done significantly less...
Now I'm starting to dream about a Star Wars game made with partnership between sony and Disney
US NPD it has no chance imo. I mean when even God of War could not do it and thats a franchise thats been more popular in the US than the ND games then this will not do it.. Worldwide like you said its def possible.
Uncharted 4 sold 2.7 million in a week. TLOU 2 will sell more. I think it has a good shot at overtaking Spidey's 3.3 million in 3 days number if it gets 93-94 meta with insane marketing ( I think Sony will market this game even more than Spidey. Prob will have the biggest first party marketing budget for Sony ever ).
Yo quit talkin shit about Ghost of Tsushima and Sucker Punch. This is an NPD thread, not a "you know, Sucker Punch is really just okay" thread.
Yeah TLOU Pt 2 is basically 100% guaranteed to debut bigger in mainland Europe.
Japan / US are VERY unlikely to top Spidey.
So it's going to be interesting how it shakes out. WW total in the opening 3 days could be very close between the 2
Edit - Actually Last of Us launched bigger in Japan than I thought it did. TLOU2 may beat Spidey launch there
Very unlikely to top Spider-Man in US? Interesting. The Last of Us has such a uniquely American theme in its story/gameplay. I wonder how much stuff like that matters for regional interest in the game.
GoT's life time sales will struggle to match Spidey's first month which is probably between 5 and 6m
According to Wikipedia, Star Wars is the fifth largest franchise behind Pokemon, Hello Kitty, Winnie the Pooh and Mickey & friends. Considering the fan backlash over the last few movies being stinkers, Star Wars doesn't feel exactly hot right now (at least not compared to a couple of years ago).
If ghost sells 2 million is be surprised. That game does not look like something that will set the charts on fire.
This is not to disparage sucker punch, they're one of my favorite devs.
LTD? that would be too low and a flop for an AAA game. It will do more than that for sure.
It won't come close to Sony's big hits obviously.
Ghost is just a demo at this point. I don't get how you guys are making any type of assumptions on it this early. Hardly any of the mechanics have been revealed and we don't know how good the story/writing will be.
I have no expectations for the game lol. There's nothing to base it on.
Dreams on the other hand has crazy potential, but I'm not sure it will capture an audience like LBP did. I'm hoping the campaign and mini games out of the box are special and capture people. It is one of my personal most anticipated games. I think my daughter can basically learn to code on it and have an infinite toy chest and story maker. But when games like Fortnite blow up, I start to believe the Dreams might not be immediate enough to be popular.
I have no expectations for the game lol. There's nothing to base it on.
Dreams on the other hand has crazy potential, but I'm not sure it will capture an audience like LBP did. I'm hoping the campaign and mini games out of the box are special and capture people. It is one of my personal most anticipated games. I think my daughter can basically learn to code on it and have an infinite toy chest and story maker. But when games like Fortnite blow up, I start to believe the Dreams might not be immediate enough to be popular.
Some people need to stop saying TLOU 2 not going to do it in US because it's a ND game .
UC and TLOU are two very different type of games setting and tone wise.
TLOU as a new IP sold 985k in it first month and that was only little less than GOW3 which used to hold record of best first month for Sony game In NPD.
If TLOU don't sell more than spidey in the first month that okay but it won't be because it a ND game.
UC and TLOU are two very different type of games setting and tone wise.
TLOU as a new IP sold 985k in it first month and that was only little less than GOW3 which used to hold record of best first month for Sony game In NPD.
If TLOU don't sell more than spidey in the first month that okay but it won't be because it a ND game.
I was talking about launch month, I think it would do at least 4-5 Ltd.
Nah i can see it doing more than that .
HZD did 2.6 million in 2 weeks and if ghost review well i can see it being around there.
And I think the opposite will hold true. Wanna have a bet?
Hard to believe these numbers, PS4 definitely not 99m and Xbox One numbers around July were 39m according to IHS Markit nd few other sources. Zhuge also said numbers seems correct.
Without official data hard to trust these numbers. But there is no way Xbox is still 36m. We are getting 36m for like forever .
I think it's very possible and likely for TLOU2 to double TLOU1 and open 2+ mil in its first month in US NPD.
To reach the realms of the 3 mil range? Not impossible but very hard and TLOU2 hasn't exactly demonstrated the engagement metrics of something that will blow up in such a big way.
To reach the realms of the 3 mil range? Not impossible but very hard and TLOU2 hasn't exactly demonstrated the engagement metrics of something that will blow up in such a big way.
People underestimating TLOU2 is one thing but saying GoT would be lucky to sell 2 million just makes me want to bang my head against a wall tbh.
Only 10 mil pfft coming for that a** tlou
9.8 mil baby with a team not really in the spotlight and didn't have a console game in 15 years baby. Move over Spider-Man(ok I'm joking Spider-Man laughs at this)
GoT is unknown and unheard of. Kind of unfair to put it in the same breath with SM or TLOU.
Personally cant wait for it though. TLOU and ghosts were my favorite E3 moments.
Personally cant wait for it though. TLOU and ghosts were my favorite E3 moments.
Purely looking at the metrics of how much interest the gameplay reveal of Spidey drew vs TLOU2? Spidey wins hands-down and it's not even close.
But metrics in terms of product interest are more interesting because it's rarely an apple-to-apple comparison. For example, if a game has an amazing reveal that is watched by 15-20 million people, but trailer #2 and trailer #3 drops off a ton, shows no sustainability in terms of holding interest, etc etc, then it doesn't matter much even if it had a huge interest draw at the get-go.
Labo is an example of a product that had a ridiculously powerful reveal that drew a crazy-ton of interest, but subsequent updates and pitches of the product failed to make that interest into purchase intent.
TLOU2 right now, even though I wouldn't say that it's gotten metrics at the level of Spidey - so far what it has demonstrated that I think is stronger than Spidey and God of War is that the core 6-8 million who are watching all the TLOU2 trailers/content consistently - are EXTREMELY engaged with the product. It's got very high watch/like ratio, and across the board the views are getting good numbers in both official and alternate channels.
For Spidey, a big part of its success was captivating an insane amount of interest from day 365 ( the first gameplay reveal ), and basically not letting up since. An absurb amount of people were extremely excited by the first gameplay reveal and all Sony/Insomniac needed to do was make sure there were no fuck-ups in terms of maintaining high interest-to-purchase conversion ratio.
For TLOU2, the 'core' of the fanbase is very excited for the game and imo, have a 70-90% purchase interest already, but that fanbase is just maybe 4-6 million strong. What Sony's marketing for that game need to do as it gets closer to launch is utilise that high IP and brand love and expand it outwards to the broad audiences that has a big interest for games like TLOU2.
I expect that when Clickers gameplay are first shown later, it'll pull in the zombie crowd interest in a bigger scope too.
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Do we expect every Sony FP game to break records from now on?
Dreams 5mil NPD debut confirmed
Dreams 5mil NPD debut confirmed
"You can create your own NPD results in Dreams"
Edit: okay I'm calling dibs on NPD levels in Dreams
Yep Last of Us gain immense popularity since then.
Also:
https://blog.us.playstation.com/2018/10/10/playstation-store-septembers-top-downloads-3/
Still charting and this was from last month.
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Incredible Spider-Man sales. Well done to the development team and Sony.
I'm really looking forward to seeing how Pokémon and Smash can do on a much smaller install base and more importantly how many units of Switch hardware they can move between them. I hope Nintendo have manufactured enough stock.
Does anyone know the North American hardware sales numbers for all three current gen systems or are they not available? Thanks.
I'm really looking forward to seeing how Pokémon and Smash can do on a much smaller install base and more importantly how many units of Switch hardware they can move between them. I hope Nintendo have manufactured enough stock.
Does anyone know the North American hardware sales numbers for all three current gen systems or are they not available? Thanks.
"you can create half life 3 in dreams"
NDP gonna shoot through the roof!
(Seriously, can we create half life 3 in dreams?"
So Shadow performed better than Rise?
I guess Rise was xbox1exclusive which limited the audience.
I guess Rise was xbox1exclusive which limited the audience.
This is all true. But if Sony hits that mainstream 199 price point for PS4 there is no way in hell TLOU2 will have the potential sales numbers that all those masses of people will have for a teen rated Spider-Man pack in or something like that. It would sell loads and loads. Not sure Sony wants that though as it is reduced revenue. But they don't know how many more are out there exactly either.
I definitely will get TLOU2 day one probably because of the MP. I didn't get Spidey day one, but I still feel Spidey is potentially bigger easily.