• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.

Which team are you in, hooman? (NOTE: Vote-changing disabled!)

  • #TeamReal

    Votes: 2,046 67.7%
  • #TeamFake

    Votes: 978 32.3%

  • Total voters
    3,024
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
Oct 26, 2017
7,981
My problem with the insiders calling it out as fake is that no one has given us a concrete reason to confirm that the leak isn't real. It's all just speculation about the production company and the lack of Inceniroar.

That and (this is coming from something that I read earlier on one of these threads) isn't this the first time that we've seen Greninja's tongue on the banner? If that's true and the leak is indeed fake, it would mean that the leaker didn't just make new renders and move the old ones around, but they would have had to modify at least one of the existing renders just to suit the character positioning the leaker himself had chosen. That just seems like a really unnecessary step to take for someone making a fake.
Honestly, if I was that invested in making fakes and redrawing the whole background I might as well draw the entirety of each partially obscured character so I can move them all around at will with each on its own layer. Greninja's tongue is like the least difficult thing to redo in this.
 

Viale

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,614
Long twitter thread from Sourcegaming member on why the 'leak' is most likely fake.



after reading this, I am now #Teamfake


Hmm, this just seems like they took the conclusion "it's fake" and worked backward on how to explain that vs actually debunking this. Like I *can* believe that someone went through a fuckton of effort to stage this whole thing, but at the same time, it feels like the simple solution(someone got marketing materials at a marketing firm and posted it), would make more sense than the tale they weave.
 

Phendrift

Member
Oct 25, 2017
32,267
Hmm, this just seems like they took the conclusion "it's fake" and worked backward on how to explain that vs actually debunking this. Like I *can* believe that someone went through a fuckton of effort to stage this whole thing, but at the same time, it feels like the simple solution(someone got marketing materials at a marketing firm and posted it), would make more sense than the tale they weave.
This
 

Ravenwraith

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,344
"Ladies and Gentlemen this leak is fake"

"Okay why is it fake"

"I'm not here to convince you one way or another"

Jesus fucking christ why can't any of these assholes give any reason why it's fake.

They do this dangling info from a tree stuff to get you to watch/read/listen to their content, which is pretty much bullshit that I'll never support
 

alphacat

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,931
Sometimes the simplest answer is the correct one.

Insiders are wrong, and this employee was in a great position to just leak this and decided to do so.

Or

A massive internet troll who studied every Smash fake up to date planned this entire thing by aiming to get this job so they can create the perfect Smash leak. They came up with a scenario where they could innocuously layout the table to look like they work on, *cough* "promotional material." This includes making the official character poster as small as possible so it would once again fit the, "oh, another blurry internet photo leak in 2018 where phones are a gizallion megapixels with high end sensors in them." But we can buy it because it's an armband because this PERSON works on promotional material! Of course, they would reference a 4Chan link because while they can be full of shit, what have they leaked before? But if that's not enough... let's throw in a seemingly misplaced Grinch promotional item to make this look less staged and believable. BUT IF THAT'S NOT ENOUGH, what if I told you those Twitter accounts that verified that he works for this agency or whatever were in on the leak too? It all checks out and if it is fake, it is the greatest fake of all time, easily.

lmao
 

GoldStarz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,040
Sometimes the simplest answer is the correct one.

Insiders are wrong, and this employee was in a great position to just leak this and decided to do so.

Or

A massive internet troll who studied every Smash fake up to date planned this entire thing by aiming to get this job so they can create the perfect Smash leak. They came up with a scenario where they could innocuously layout the table to look like they work on, *cough* "promotional material." This includes making the official character poster as small as possible so it would once again fit the, "oh, another blurry internet photo leak in 2018 where phones are a gizallion megapixels with high end sensors in them." But we can buy it because it's an armband because this PERSON works on promotional material! Of course, they would reference a 4Chan link because while they can be full of shit, what have they leaked before? But if that's not enough... let's throw in a seemingly misplaced Grinch promotional item to make this look less staged and believable. BUT IF THAT'S NOT ENOUGH, what if I told you those Twitter accounts that verified that he works for this agency or whatever were in on the leak too? It all checks out and if it is fake, it is the greatest fake of all time, easily.
So like....

A thing that pretty much always happens once every Smash

or

A thing that pretty much always happens once every Smash
 

NotLiquid

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
34,735
Generally agree with some of the points Nantenjex raises in regards to most of the "hard" evidence people propose not being as ironclad as people think, even if I'm generally of the mind that the person was a legit worker that just hoaxed their own leak.
 

Spinluck

▲ Legend ▲
Avenger
Oct 26, 2017
28,400
Chicago
But Spinluck, Sakurai said not to expect too many newcomers! Clearly this means this HAS to be fake!

Hasn't Sakurai been known to mess with expectations since Brawl? Like he says things and people usually take it the wrong way lol. I think this was more directed towards the more extreme fans who are expecting completely unique characters in proportion to everyone coming back lol. Or just the ones who expect too much each iteration.

Snake, Ice Climbers, Young Link, etc. All had to be completely redone from scratch.
 

Nilooze

Member
Apr 23, 2018
52
67 pages of pure madness. Just can't believe how people are getting into this. But please continue to feed this, its just hilarious. You all made my day.
 

ShinobiBk

One Winged Slayer
Member
Dec 28, 2017
10,121
My one constant on whether this is fake or real is this.

Even if Incineroar & Ken are in the game. Sakurai will not close out the character reveals with them. The way marketing has been and with the ULTIMATE subtitle

I agree, which is why the last reveal will be Mach Rider, who 95% (being geneorous) of people who will buy Smash Ultimate will have never heard of before this leak
 

Gold Arsene

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
30,757
I'm forgetting. How many people at the old place claimed that the ESRB leak was fake?

Were there people going "how do yo dumbasses believe this shit?" then too?
 

9-Volt

Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,866
This is literally most believable leak I've ever seen.

NX Controller? Nobody is dumb enough not to include buttons on a goddamn controller.
Gen 8 starters? It was very clear that gen 8 coming in 2019 before even Switch was revelaed. And the starters leaked a year early?
Rayman? Who the hell believed in this? Most amateaurish job I've seen.

Smash roster leaked 1,5 months before its launch on store displays? Well we had Smash leaked 100% true before. And store displays might be most reliable source of leak because people working in companies responsible for them aren't under NDA. Or might not know they are.
 

TheShampion

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,214
All I care about is Geno. Not sure even why at this point, but the current know roster had Geno, I would be all set.
 

Red Arremer

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
12,259
Hasn't Sakurai been known to mess with expectations since Brawl? Like he says things and people usually take it the wrong way lol. I think this was more directed towards the more extreme fans who are expecting completely unique characters in proportion to everyone coming back lol. Or just the ones who expect too much each iteration.

I know, I was just being sarcastic. :P

Snake, Ice Climbers, Young Link, etc. All had to be completely redone from scratch.

Not really. ICs were planned for 4, and seemingly brought along quite far. And even the Melee characters still have assets like animations that could be used. Even if all of the animations got altered, it still would allow the other parts of the teams to start working on these characters as well.
Furthermore, all of the returning characters have entirely completed movesets, which means the entire draft stage fell away, at most these characters got a couple of new moves. Nothing was done "from scratch" with any of them.
 

Spinluck

▲ Legend ▲
Avenger
Oct 26, 2017
28,400
Chicago
Not comparable at all. What I liked about the ESRB leak it's how the images were fairly clear, no bullshit around it and even questionable daring decisions like returning Dr. Mario and putting Dark Pit in which made many hate the leak since it didn't align with their expectations.

This leak on the other hand is mostly a "crowd internet pleaser" which is also why it doesn't have Incineroar despite being an "obvious" one since he has a big group of haters he isn't included, you can even feel the vibe from that very same post on 4chan.

lol... Ridley, K. Rool, and Belmont are in the game... along with every Smash fighter ever.

This Smash might as well be named, Smash Bros Ultimate Crowd Pleaser Edition. It's a celebration of not only the crossover nature of the series, but the series itself.

I get what you are saying, but to imply the game hasn't been aimed towards pleasing the crowd thus far is almost willfully ignorant.

If someone told you every Smash fighter would be coming back while we'd get post like, "I hope so and so isn't cut" or "I hope so and so comes back." We'd likely call bullshit. Snake coming back was something that no one meant when they posted it and it pretty much became a meme because people though Konami was too evil to let him come back.
 

ZiggyPalffyLA

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
4,504
Los Angeles, California
I've read it all. He could have simply said "I don't believe it" and called it a day, he offers no counter-evidence at all.

The idea that Bandai-Namco would have nothing to do with marketing materials for the game seems like pretty strong counter-evidence to me, and I'm on #teamreal.

I hope they include a live-action alt costume for him

how-the-grinch-stole-christmas-remake.jpg

I don't care what anybody says, that's a damn underrated film.
 

night814

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 29, 2017
15,032
Pennsylvania
Not comparable at all. What I liked about the ESRB leak it's how the images were fairly clear, no bullshit around it and even questionable daring decisions like returning Dr. Mario and putting Dark Pit in which made many hate the leak since it didn't align with their expectations.

This leak on the other hand is mostly a "crowd internet pleaser" which is also why it doesn't have Incineroar despite being an "obvious" one since he has a big group of haters he isn't included, you can even feel the vibe from that very same post on 4chan.
To be fair Sakurai is on full internet appeasement mode.
 

NHarmonic.

▲ Legend ▲
The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
10,290
There's also no way Sakurai leaves the WEAK, weak af Ken and Shadow as last reveals for the game. He's made us wait so much because he'll make the fandom explode with the last reveals so we flood retailers with preorders. Banjo and Geno here will be what takes down the videogame side of the internet on that direct.
 

Lozjam

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Nov 1, 2017
1,961
Long twitter thread from Sourcegaming member on why the 'leak' is most likely fake.



after reading this, I am now #Teamfake

That entire line of thinking is the exact same that was said when Smash 4 had the ESRB leak. This exact process was "detailed". How it was too blurry, inconspicuous, how a fan made it full proof, and with a complex story to back it up.

And look at where we are now.
 

ThisIsMyDogKyle

Prophet of Truth - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,135
I'm forgetting. How many people at the old place claimed that the ESRB leak was fake?

Were there people going "how do yo dumbasses believe this shit?" then too?
Yeah it was probably more doubting that one than this one tbh, although, I kinda expect that some people are more readily believing this one in part because ESRB ended up being real.
 

APZonerunner

Features Editor at VG247.com
Verified
Oct 28, 2017
1,724
England
I appreciate you being very open about your stance and why it's your stance. What you wrote here is a very grounded and reasonable take. Whereas when people usually act like they know more than the rest and vaguely dismiss the leak (or any leak in general really), it gives off the impression that they can say with certainty that they're right. Not sure they realize this.

I think it depends, right? Like, sometimes you get told stuff by people you absolutely know will be telling the truth, like a company employee giving you a heads up as to what announcement might be coming soon, or what DLC plans are, or whatever. Sometimes they'll even reveal stuff to influencers/media/etc as a way of taking the temperature as to what the reaction to an announcement might be. That depends on the company too, of course - like, if we're just talking in the pantheon of fighting games, it was a lot easier to find out who the Dissidia DLC was, or who was in the SC6 launch cast than to find anything out about Smash definitively, because Nintendo runs a very, very tight ship. With that said...

I don't always think it's easy to get something right. Like, when I first heard the name Simon suggested to me it was way before anyone even thought Snake could realistically be coming back. It was the sort of thing where when I heard it my response was to smirk and say "Okay then, we'll see," half writing it off. And that aside, I want to stress this: context is everything when it comes to leaks and 'insider information'. Hypothetically, if somebody comes up and says "I hear character A and B are in Smash", that's one thing, but usually somebody worth their salt will then also provide other corroborating information on other things - possibly not even stuff connected to that game. This sort of stuff might cement their status in your mind as a trustworthy source (so say, for instance, that the person who provided that information provided a bunch of more obtuse, less interesting stuff that did pan out at E3), but the more of that context is revealed publicly the easier it potentially is for somebody revealing this stuff to be tracked down and punished, so that's where the water gets really muddy. You can't really reveal the context, but if you reveal the information without revealing the context alongside it people think you're making vague stuff up.

This is where imo the reader needs to come in. Like, only you can really judge who among the youtube/press/influencer 'insiders' you trust, and whose hints and tips and nods you're more likely to believe. If anything, a job of an insider or influencer in this sense is to gather as much information as they can from as many cases as they can and then disseminate only the stuff they think actually has a chance of being true. I personally would never just believe someone fresh off the bat without rock solid, incontrovertible proof... unless that person has a track record and I know they've been solid in the past. Even then, people get stuff wrong. Plans change, dates move, and people get their wires crossed and misunderstand things.

This comes back to what I said in some other posts in this thread too, about the difference between journalistic reporting and just people shooting the shit on twitter or Era, or people posting in a more fast-and-loose way on YouTube or whatever. People with proper journalism training will generally only want to report on stuff if they can get two verifiable, trustworthy, unconnected sources to report the same thing without any prompting or cross-contamination. When you see places like Kotaku or Eurogamer file large reports, they're doing it in this style, and this is proper and correct. This is also why I haven't posted about any of this stuff at work, on the website: I don't have the water tight sourcing I'd want to file a formal report, which is a more serious matter than shooting the shit on Era or twitter. A lot of the people rolling around with insider info about character rosters don't worry about this sort of thing, though, so the buck is passed to the reader: it turns to the individual and the community to figure out who you trust and who you don't.

Which is why threads like this are good. Sometimes the hysteria goes to people's heads, I admit, but I think whenever this stuff is posted it's interesting to discuss and hash it out and try to separate the wheat from the chaff. I think over time you can really figure out who the reliable people are. Like, there's a bunch of leakers in the Street Fighter community, but only a few have emerged as the guys who get stuff like upcoming DLC right, and as such the things they reveal are treated with the appropriate level of skepticism. I think with Smash people just lose their heads easier, though.
 
Last edited:

night814

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 29, 2017
15,032
Pennsylvania
Hmm, this just seems like they took the conclusion "it's fake" and worked backward on how to explain that vs actually debunking this. Like I *can* believe that someone went through a fuckton of effort to stage this whole thing, but at the same time, it feels like the simple solution(someone got marketing materials at a marketing firm and posted it), would make more sense than the tale they weave.
The fact that they have a picture of a blank battlefield with no characters leads me to believe it's real. That has never been seen before and would be tough to make.
 

Sebastopa

Member
Apr 27, 2018
1,782
There's also no way Sakurai leaves the WEAK, weak af Ken and Shadow as last reveals for the game. He's made us wait so much because he'll make the fandom explode with the last reveals so we flood retailers with preorders. Banjo and Geno here will be what takes down the videogame side of the internet on that direct.
Geno Strong and Shadow weak... How does it feel to be in the Era bubble?
 

SaikyoBro

Member
Oct 26, 2017
70
Hmm, this just seems like they took the conclusion "it's fake" and worked backward on how to explain that vs actually debunking this. Like I *can* believe that someone went through a fuckton of effort to stage this whole thing, but at the same time, it feels like the simple solution(someone got marketing materials at a marketing firm and posted it), would make more sense than the tale they weave.

This sums it up pretty well. At the risk of sounding smug I thought the ESRB leak was pretty clearly real and I think this is pretty clearly real in the same way, and the similarities between the arguments against them are staggering. I do think it's pretty funny that back then the stance was "this is less than we thought it would be, so it can't be real" but this time it's "this is more than we could ever hope for, so it must be fake!".

I'm not saying Banjo-Kazooie and Golden Sun fans should rejoice knowing that they got their characters in, but are people seriously arguing that someone found a random French marketing employee on Indeed and chose to pin this on him? And created custom Grinch promotional renders to throw everyone off their scent? I can't help but feel like a lot of people are denying this because they're so convinced of Incineroar/Ken being the only remaining characters or because they can't imagine their trusted insiders being incorrect. To that crowd: it's completely normal to be wrong sometimes. It's okay to change your mind in the face of reasonable evidence like this. I really don't think defending Gamexplain's faith in Incineroar is a hill you want to die on.
 

Deleted member 12009

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,141
Man, GameXplain is not helping #teamfake's case. I just find it much harder to believe that all of this random shit was product of careful planning rather than the much simpler explanation that this leaker actually did just fuck up and out himself and the roster.
 

Łazy

Member
Nov 1, 2017
5,249
At least we're diverted from the stupid box theory... which actually looks less unreaslistic than this fake. But with a better outcome.

So if I had to chose, banner it is.
 

lint2015

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,809
Honestly, if I was that invested in making fakes and redrawing the whole background I might as well draw the entirety of each partially obscured character so I can move them all around at will with each on its own layer. Greninja's tongue is like the least difficult thing to redo in this.
All of these character art are available individually on Nintendo's press site, no painting in details required.

The blank background without character art though... yeah that could be faked but I dunno...
 

Unknownlight

One Winged Slayer
Member
Nov 2, 2017
10,539
So, after all this... who's left? Like, for DLC?

Rex and Pyra and a Pokémon I guess.

They basically covered everyone in the base roster.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.