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RUMOR: Massive Smash Ultimate leak is allegedly an emotional roller coaster [UPDATES IN OP]

Which team are you in, hooman? (NOTE: Vote-changing disabled!)

  • #TeamReal

    Votes: 2,046 67.7%

  • #TeamFake

    Votes: 978 32.3%
  • Total voters
    3,024
  • Poll closed .
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Jawmuncher

Jawmuncher

Crisis Dino
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
38,500
Ibis Island
Like right now. If the only piece is "Incineroar isn't there". There's a chance people have outdated news. I remember with Smash 3DS/WiiU Howe adamant people were on the Gemtasu leak that had the same problem.

I would not be surprised if characters that made it around got shifted between cut and being dlc
 

Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,054
can i say that apart from geno being in, the thing that excites me the most is the possibility for TABUU to make its great comeback
4dd49c58b2.png


i fucking love tabuu
 
PSqueak

PSqueak

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,464
Platy said:
You know why I am #TeamReal ?

Because this has the thing that smash leaks usually miss : a wtf character

All the leaks feature popular and shit fans super want and miss the Chorus Kids or Mach Rider which is the curveball that Sakurai always give us and I love him for that
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People can deflect MR as the WTF pick on grounds of being rumored from Sakurai mentioning him long ago.
 
Platy

Platy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,692
Brazil
DrArchon said:
But there are a lot of people that know Sakurai likes unpredictable characters and they try to predict them anyway in their leaks.

This wouldn't be the first time I've seen Mach Rider in one of these. And Chorus Kids were heavily speculated on because of the Gematsu leak.
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And yet most 4 chan "leaks" have sora and goku instead of those 2
 
TheDinoman

TheDinoman

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,096
To be honest, Mach Rider is kind of a random pick.

Most of the other retro characters we've gotten since Melee weren't just added for the sake of it. Pit got in because he was hella popular, R.O.B was included because of his importance to the NES' history, and Duck Hunt got in as a rep of the Light Gun Series. Mach Rider kind of feels like a random "throw a dart at a board" pick.
 
Strittles

Strittles

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,762
One thing I always take into account when weighing the validity of a leak is to consider the amount of effort it would take to make a fake like this.

And my god the amount of shit this man would need to do to create this is absurd. Like it's one thing to make a single render like the Rayman or Palutena leak and then do some photoshoping but drawing seven different characters to match with the art, editing the art to make everything line up well, creating a fake render of Battlefield, creating fake marketing materials, having a bunch of evidence all around the picture and internet that somehow ends up making the leak more credible, it's crazy to imagine this is all just an elaborate hoax.

All this just gives me ESRB vibes. It's even worse when most of the counters to it are just conjecture. "It looks like a wishlist" "No Pokemon" "No time to reveal 7 characters". Even though some of the arguments are reasonable, it pales in comparison to the amount of things backing up this leak.
 
9-Volt

9-Volt

Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,880
Platy said:
You know why I am #TeamReal ?

Because this has the thing that smash leaks usually miss : a wtf character

All the leaks feature popular and shit fans super want and miss the Chorus Kids or Mach Rider which is the curveball that Sakurai always give us and I love him for that
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Yeah, Mach Rider makes it much more believable. It's ROB or Duck Hunt of this generation. It doesn't have to be a super popular character, every game needs a super nostalgic character, especially from NES era.
 
TimeFire

TimeFire

Avenger
Nov 26, 2017
9,625
Brazil
Kouichi said:
One thing I always take into account when weighing the validity of a leak is to consider the amount of effort it would take to make a fake like this.

And my god the amount of shit this man would need to do to create this is absurd. Like it's one thing to make a single render like the Rayman or Palutena leak and then do some photoshoping but drawing seven different characters to match with the art, editing the art to make everything line up well, creating a fake render of Battlefield, creating fake marketing materials, having a bunch of evidence all around the picture and internet that somehow ends up making the leak more credible, it's crazy to imagine this is all just an elaborate hoax.

All this just gives me ESRB vibes. It's even worse when most of the counters to it are just conjecture. "It looks like a wishlist" "No Pokemon" "No time to reveal 7 characters". Even though some of the arguments are reasonable, it pales in comparison to the amount of things backing up this leak.
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Don't forget fake Grinch renders!
 
Tab

Tab

Member
Nov 23, 2017
1,278
Out of everything, what makes me think this is real is that Mach Rider is the only solid explanation we've gotten for that Vifam model Sakurai bought (remember, he bought it specifically for the rifle). None of the characters up until this point could have utilized it, and none of the other previously rumored characters provide an adequate explanation either.
 
Lozjam

Lozjam

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Nov 1, 2017
1,964
skittzo0413 said:
Yup TPC is full of bizarre decisions.



Definitely possible, I just tend to believe insiders when so many of them are this confident.
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Often times insiders are intentionally given wrong information. Even with many different sources, sources could tell them completely off base information to do a variety things.

1. The sources themselves want to throw insiders in for a loop, so they are off base. This gives them cover and throws their company(in this case Nintendo) off of their back.
2. The company intentionally gives staff conflicting information. With information that is not true, it can be a little bit easier to track who is leaking stuff through this.
3. The company leaks things themselves, to throw insiders out of the loop.

And the most common one is:
4: outdated information.
The people who say it has to be incineroar could have heard information from when the roster is set. That could have changed at any moment, and it could have been outdated information.
 
NotLiquid

NotLiquid

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
34,767
MaitreWakou said:
I get your whole point, but this right here is most likely not to be taken seriously from Sakurai. It's Smash, the whole marketing has been discussed for months, the whole reveal route was probably decided back in march or at least june. I don't believe he regrets anything. It's the big Nintendo game of this year, both Sakurai and Nintendo know exactly what they are doing in order to market this game, they don't regret anything. They know exactly what they are doing lol, it's Smash.
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Regardless if that was the plan from the onset, that doesn't necessarily mean he might have felt it was the right choice to do so. We've had a lot of people feel that Ultimate's hype cycle has been pretty scattershot up to this point, and Sakurai is a lot of things but the last thing I would call him is dishonest. When he's conclusive about something, he makes that fairly clear - a good example of that is when he said they were reaching the bottom of newcomers for Smash 4 leading up to Robin's reveal, that was followed by only three more characters. In this case, he admits that by pushing so many characters at once, he told people to expect character reveals to be much more modest and scaled down from now on. That much is true so far; as we've now gone over an entire month without a single character reveal. It kind of made sense to not reveal stuff in July because that was press month, but with so many supposedly rumored characters, it doesn't make any sense to withhold one away from October when we've had impromptu Direct-less reveals in the past. By his own admission I'd say it's better to keep a cool head on your shoulders. I would be surprised if this leak is real, but not in a bad way.
 
Phendrift

Phendrift

Member
Oct 25, 2017
32,300
MaitreWakou said:
I get your whole point, but this right here is most likely not to be taken seriously from Sakurai. It's Smash, the whole marketing has been discussed for months, the whole reveal route was probably decided back in march or at least june. I don't believe he regrets anything. It's the big Nintendo game of this year, both Sakurai and Nintendo know exactly what they are doing in order to market this game, they don't regret anything. They know exactly what they are doing lol, it's Smash.
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This is a really good point, there's no way Sakurai just woke up three days before the August direct and decided himself "I think I'll reveal the Belmonts and K. Rool in this one"

The marketing strategy has likely been planned for a long time.
 
Axass

Axass

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
1,384
This is simply too complex to be a fake leak. The most reasonable thing atm is that all the insiders have bad info. However crazy that may sound, there's a real guy working at a real company that probably just lost his job. No way this is fake.
 
Yavga

Yavga

Banned
Dec 20, 2017
501
DrArchon said:
But there are a lot of people that know Sakurai likes unpredictable characters and they try to predict them anyway in their leaks.

This wouldn't be the first time I've seen Mach Rider in one of these. And Chorus Kids were heavily speculated on because of the Gematsu leak.
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Well, every character ever has been speculated at least 10 times honestly.
 
Phendrift

Phendrift

Member
Oct 25, 2017
32,300
NotLiquid said:
Regardless if that was the plan from the onset, that doesn't necessarily mean he might have felt it was the right choice to do so. We've had a lot of people feel that Ultimate's hype cycle has been pretty scattershot up to this point, and Sakurai is a lot of things but the last thing I would call him is dishonest. When he's conclusive about something, he makes that fairly clear - a good example of that is when he said they were reaching the bottom of newcomers for Smash 4 leading up to Robin's reveal, that was followed by only three more characters. In this case, he admits that by pushing so many characters at once, he told people to expect character reveals to be much more modest and scaled down from now on. That much is true so far; as we've now gone over an entire month without a single character reveal. It kind of made sense to not reveal stuff in July because that was press month, but by his own admission I'd say it's better to keep a cool head on your shoulders. I would be surprised if this leak is real, but not in a bad way.
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Iirc he said "slowing down the pace" - which still leaves room for a dead two months followed by blowout.
 
Oscillator

Oscillator

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
1,787
Canada
I'm firmly on Team Fake.

I don't doubt that the person who took the pics is in the business of making promotional assets for Nintendo. However, that doesn't preclude the person being a troll.

There is no way in hell 5 non-echo characters are being revealed only (approx.) one month before release. It completely breaks the standard hype cycle for Smash characters. And if some of them were DLC, they wouldn't be in launch advertising.
 
Metto

Metto

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,109
Tab said:
Out of everything, what makes me think this is real is that Mach Rider is the only solid explanation we've gotten for that Vifam model Sakurai bought (remember, he bought it specifically for the rifle). None of the characters up until this point could have utilized it, and none of the other previously rumored characters provide an adequate explanation either.
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Elma was a possibility but she wasn't really rumored. Even then the rifles are like a dead ringer for each other more so then Elma
 
Papercuts

Papercuts

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,025
DrArchon said:
But there are a lot of people that know Sakurai likes unpredictable characters and they try to predict them anyway in their leaks.

This wouldn't be the first time I've seen Mach Rider in one of these. And Chorus Kids were heavily speculated on because of the Gematsu leak.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I think we've hit smash discussion dilution to the point where just about any character has been speculated. Once a "wtf" chatacter like Game & Watch, Wii Fit Trainer and Duck Hunt get added in it almost challenges people to find someone obscure to recommend.
 

drclaw411

Member
Mar 22, 2018
517
Kouichi said:
One thing I always take into account when weighing the validity of a leak is to consider the amount of effort it would take to make a fake like this.

And my god the amount of shit this man would need to do to create this is absurd. Like it's one thing to make a single render like the Rayman or Palutena leak and then do some photoshoping but drawing seven different characters to match with the art, editing the art to make everything line up well, creating a fake render of Battlefield, creating fake marketing materials, having a bunch of evidence all around the picture and internet that somehow ends up making the leak more credible, it's crazy to imagine this is all just an elaborate hoax.

All this just gives me ESRB vibes. It's even worse when most of the counters to it are just conjecture. "It looks like a wishlist" "No Pokemon" "No time to reveal 7 characters". Even though some of the arguments are reasonable, it pales in comparison to the amount of things backing up this leak.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I'm on team fake because of no Incineroar. It's not just conjecture. This leak has a ton going for it? Well, so does Vergeben who has gotten nothing wrong as of yet in regards to Smash. I'm going to believe a proven, credible leaker over a blurry image that's probably the work of a very lonely neckbeard with too much time on his hands who wanted to create an elaborate leak for the sake of the lulz. Not to mention that, yes, this looks like a wishlist. If something seems too good to be true, it probably is. Be smart, everyone. The most credible combo we have at this point is Vergeben (gotten nothing wrong about Smash) and box theory (official material released by Nintendo).

Book it: the final two base roster characters are Ken and Incineroar, with a Square Enix two as the first DLC (possibly free to those who have purchased online, Mewtwo style).
 

Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,054
Remember, every smash bros apart from the first one had cuts in the roster of characters that were planned to be in:
Melee -> Sonic
Brawl -> Mewtwo, Roy, Dr. Mario
Wii U -> Chrom, Chorus Kids

in addition Bowser Jr. almost got cut according to Sakurai
 
Uglier Rare Character

Uglier Rare Character

Member
Jan 8, 2018
375
The quickest way to get people with information to elaborate is to get super, super hyped over this. Telling people to be temper their expectations is like catnip.

Alternatively, some aspiring graphic designer will have come forward by this time tomorrow, and confessed to framing an innocent French guy for clicks.
 
Squid Bunny

Squid Bunny

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jun 11, 2018
5,342
LordKano said:
can i say that apart from geno being in, the thing that excites me the most is the possibility for TABUU to make its great comeback
4dd49c58b2.png


i fucking love tabuu
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He seems like an extremely sociable chap.

Thank goodness we have "The Grinch Leak" as a name, it would be terrible to have to call it the "suck my dick leak".
 
Starphanluke

Starphanluke

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Nov 15, 2017
7,335
I'm inclined to believe it's real for now, if only because the evidence for it being real so intensely outweighs the "but I have sources saying it's wrong" evidence- in that there is none.

I'm fine if it's fake. Hell, I think the already revealed newcomers alone are enough to make me satisfied with the roster. But damn, all of the evidence for #TeamReal is a whole lot more concrete than the ethereal "sources" people like to talk about.
 
TimeFire

TimeFire

Avenger
Nov 26, 2017
9,625
Brazil
drclaw411 said:
I'm on team fake because of no Incineroar. It's not just conjecture. This leak has a ton going for it? Well, so does Vergeben who has gotten nothing wrong as of yet in regards to Smash. I'm going to believe a proven, credible leaker over a blurry image that's probably the work of a very lonely neckbeard with too much time on his hands who wanted to create an elaborate leak for the sake of the lulz. Not to mention that, yes, this looks like a wishlist. If something seems too good to be true, it probably is. Be smart, everyone. The most credible combo we have at this point is Vergeben (gotten nothing wrong about Smash) and box theory (official material released by Nintendo).

Book it: the final two base roster characters are Ken and Incineroar, with a Square Enix two as the first DLC (possibly free to those who have purchased online, Mewtwo style).
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This post encapsulated everything I disliked about the last 2 months of Smash speculation.

Vergeben + Box Theory + Incineroar as the be all end all
 
Red Arremer

Red Arremer

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
12,259
TheDinoman said:
To be honest, Mach Rider is kind of a random pick.

Most of the other retro characters we've gotten since Melee weren't just added for the sake of it. Pit got in because he was hella popular, R.O.B was included because of his importance to the NES' history, and Duck Hunt got in as a rep of the Light Gun Series. Mach Rider kind of feels like a random "throw a dart at a board" pick.
Click to expand...
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I mean, Mach Rider is special in the sense that his game is based on a toy that Nintendo manufactured before they made video games. And obviously Sakurai likes him since his theme has been in Smash since Melee. I don't think it's a "dart board" pick, especially considering that Sakurai clearly has had the character on his mind for 17 years. It's a sensible pick of a character that has some history, and, as all full on surprise/retro characters have done up until this point have been tied to some sort of hardware. It might be coincidence, but the fact Mach Rider originated as a toy lends credence to this imo. And honestly, there's really not all that many options for solid retro characters. Plus, we don't know how Mach Rider will play, either. For all we know, he was picked in a similar fashion to Ice Climbers, who were added to Melee because Sakurai wanted to have a team character. It could be that Mach Rider uses some sort of mechanic with his bike that was the grounds of him being added, and perhaps he simply was better suited for this mechanic than Excitebike.
 
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