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Let's say, theoretically, the results of the early votes were tallied and Beto shows a commanding lead.
Could that information leak and be used to motivate Republican voters?
Could that information leak and be used to motivate Republican voters?
Just prep for the worst here. Beto's chance aren't great.
Gotta think this is helping Beto. I can't see people waiting in long lines to vote for Ted fucking Cruz.
Early voting tends to lean pretty Democratic anyway. I don't think you have to worry about it affecting turnout.
Which I don't get. Numbers are higher for midterms than a Presidential in some areas, how is Cruz benefitting from that to still be ahead?
There's not really a plausible way for this to happen, since each county keeps its votes separately. You'd need to somehow simultaneously leak every county, or at least enough of the big ones to get a good picture. I'm not even sure if within the county they know who you actually voted for until Election Day, only who has voted.
Turnout isn't a guarantee in a red state. If both Republicans and a Democrat's are turning out at presidential levels, all that ends up meaning is that Beto loses by single digits instead of single. Beto wins if Dems vote like it's 2016 and Republicans vote like it's 2014. If Republicans are turning out at presidential levels, then he needs unprecedented levels of Dem turnout to counter (or for significant numbers of Republicans to back him). Until the votes are actually counted, it's hard to say which situation you is, and you have to give a lot of weight in your assumptions to the partisan makeup of the state.
But for Ted Cruz?
Like, I get the right are mostly racist old people who voted for Trump, but TED CRUZ?
This Texas bro. Folks will wait in long lines to vote for a literal turd if it's R-shaped.
Senate is statewide popular vote
House is the only national-level office in this election that isn't statewide.
Ah cool, I didn't;t know if even with record turnout, if the urban votes would only go so far because they're were only for such % area or whatever.
That's good if the #'s are statewide
Polls are as busy as yesterday in Travis county.
http://tcto.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Minimalist/index.html?appid=c181a61d343b4645aa7c1c3cd445aff6
http://tcto.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Minimalist/index.html?appid=c181a61d343b4645aa7c1c3cd445aff6
That's what Rs thought might happen in the Alabama special election (where even though there was only one D vs R race on the ballot, people still had the option to vote straight ticket) and it didn't pan out. I imagine anyone who could justify "Well I'm not really voting for this person, just for the party" with straight-ticket voting could justify actually voting for them without it.
Day 3 and the pflugerville polls are still 30 minutes to 1 hour wait. Days 1 and 2 it was 1+ hour. Typically in most elections you can show up and vote within a few minutes after day 1.
Travis county, probably the most liberal county in Texas, seems to have considerably higher turnout than expected.
Travis county, probably the most liberal county in Texas, seems to have considerably higher turnout than expected.
This is the last time for straight ticket voting here, btw. Thank lte gov Patrick and his son losing an election for that one.
Throw me in on this as well. I'll contribute to the beto beerfest
Yes that's true. I used to vote by candidate but I will not vote Republican because it is associated with Trump. So I did the party line option, then you can select libertarian for any seat not contested by a Democrat. Also, dont select uncontested Republican seats. Vote Fuck You to Republicans.
fired up for what? They control president, house and senate? This is literally the opposite of every midterm where the party that controls the presidency for like the last 20 years.
Slowing down each day, until a spike on the final day, is the normal trend, I think. Being at nearly triple 2014 on a day as cold and wet as this is pretty impressive still.
That's still really high for midterms. Here's day 1 and 2 for a lot of counties, generally on par with 2016 and 3x 2012 midterms.
https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2018/general-election-early-voting/
Beto and the opposition party are the energized ones.
Actually, in 2016 it was pretty consistently about 40K give or take 2-3K from one day to the next. The one day where turnout dropped to 17K was the only Sunday in the early voting period.
Because Texas is still a red state. The GOP floor is incredibly high. Beto has a chance because of how abnormal this particular election cycle has been, but it's still a 2-outter.
