Citi analysts: consumer interest in new iPhone models slowing due to innovation slowdown& saturation

Herne · Oct 22, 2018

I don't think I know anyone with an iPhone... in fact I don't think I've seen an iPhone owned by anyone I know in the last decade. Most people don't care about flagship level phones and even those who do are much more likely to pay €500 for a OnePlus than double or triple that for an iPhone - the top XS model in Ireland costs €1,679, or $1,927.

For a phone? That's what I call fuck you money. 512GB be damned, Apple has always charged exorbitant sums for increased storage or memory on all their devices.

Kotze282 · Oct 22, 2018

Get rid of the notch, put the selfie cam behind the screen or on a thing that slides out, include an in-screen fingerprint sensor, call it the iPhone Ultra, watch consumer interest skyrocket.

(Seriously, why is it that neither Apple nor Google have a device with this innovations when they have all that money while smaller manufacturers already ship devices that have stuff like that? Are they really saving innovations for the future?)

Herne · Oct 22, 2018

Kotze282 said:
Get rid of the notch, put the selfie cam behind the screen or on a thing that slides out, include an in-screen fingerprint sensor, call it the iPhone Ultra, watch consumer interest skyrocket.

(Seriously, why is it that neither Apple nor Google have a device with this innovations when they have all that money while smaller manufacturers already ship devices that have stuff like that? Are they really saving innovations for the future?)

There was news very recently about Samsung getting phones ready with all of that for next year.

Aztechnology · Oct 22, 2018

I'm on that 4 year cycle Android side too. Still rocking a Samsung Galaxy S7 Edge. Waiting for the next iteration with foldable OLED. However, if it folds like a flip phone vertically, and horizontally into a tablet type device, I'm out.

Anthony Hopkins · Oct 22, 2018

Its not just a problem with iphones but smartphones in general, each new model is having diminishing returns.
Bring on the smart glasses!

Vic Damone Jr. · Oct 22, 2018

The XS not having a new feature was a letdown. The S line is always a spec bump and new feature:/

Blablurn · Oct 22, 2018

Still very happy with my iPhone 7 Plus. Might switch once the notch is gone!

bmdubya · Oct 22, 2018

I plan on getting a XR, but it does seem like interest is waning. I just want back into the iOS ecosystem and it's the cheapest way for me to do it.

Ryaaan14 · Oct 22, 2018

Newman said:
Also a lot of people in this thread saying the phone providers don't subsidize phones any more; A: They weren't really subsidized to begin with. You paid for them with more expensive data/talk/text packages.

B: Lots of providers subsidize phones via BOGO offers. Verizon is doing a BOGO on the iPhone XR this month and I bet AT&T is too.

I mean this is literally false. My cell phone bill has stayed the same since 2006 and I'm not able to get subsidized phones anymore. We either didn't pay the difference to begin with, or we're getting ripped off now.

RiPPn · Oct 22, 2018

Newman said:
I sell cell phones for a living and I can smell which way the wind is blowing. There are a few points I want to touch on...

The iPhone XR will be insanely popular. It's only $750 USD, which is $50 less than the S9, Pixel 3 (Verizon pricing) The XR will be the perfect "compromise" phone. It's the iPhone X design for the folks that refuse to spend $1000. It's perfect. Kids are gonna eat it up I'm telling you. It's a pretty brilliant move.

A lot of people will be eating their words once 5G is rolled out nation wide in America (We aren't very far from it now).

The first iPhone that does 5G is going to absolutely demolish sales records and the people that say "I could go 5 years without upgrading" are gonna be awfully tempted once 5G proves what it can do.

Also a lot of people in this thread saying the phone providers don't subsidize phones any more; A: They weren't really subsidized to begin with. You paid for them with more expensive data/talk/text packages.

B: Lots of providers subsidize phones via BOGO offers. Verizon is doing a BOGO on the iPhone XR this month and I bet AT&T is too.

This seems like a lot of corporate speak. And I don't buy 5G is going to excite and energize the phone market. I don't know a single person who knows or cares about 5G. There is literally no buzz around it.

Deleted member 8752 · Oct 22, 2018

Autumn said:
Apple needs a new product.

Their watches are pretty hot right now.

Regarding their phones though, I only upgrade when needed at this point. It used to be every 2 years. Last time, it was 3 years.

Next upgrade will probably be like 4 years from now. I see the lifespan of these phones only growing from here on out.

ManixMiner · Oct 22, 2018

I've had my iPhone SE for a while now and don't see the need to upgrade.

New phones today offer nothing new or exciting, what new offerings they do have are kinda gimmicky and are not essential.

Deleted member 1759 · Oct 22, 2018

Now that you mention it, none of my friends or acquaintances really talks/-ed about the XS/XR and I don't know anyone IRL who bought one. There was a lot of talk about the X, mainly because of the price and I know some people who bought one but no one is talking about this year's iPhone. But more and more people I know are switching to 300-500€ Android phones anyway.

As a matter of fact, no one is talking about the Pixel 3 either.

Ultima_5 · Oct 22, 2018

honestly phones have plateaued. I see no difference between my current iPhone and the two I had previously. the 4 seemed like the last major jump.

I don't think I'm gonna bother upgrading next time. i'll just shell out 80 bucks or w/e and get the battery replaced.

most of the "innovations" seem to be things that literally don't matter. i'd rather have my battery last a few days at this point.

lunarworks · Oct 22, 2018

I've been expecting this kind of plateau for a few years now. It's so hard to wow people with mature technology. When they finally figure out how to make a hybrid device that's "magical", that may be the next big jump.

Kotze282 said:
Get rid of the notch, put the selfie cam behind the screen or on a thing that slides out, include an in-screen fingerprint sensor, call it the iPhone Ultra, watch consumer interest skyrocket.

(Seriously, why is it that neither Apple nor Google have a device with this innovations when they have all that money while smaller manufacturers already ship devices that have stuff like that? Are they really saving innovations for the future?)

If the notch bothered people so much, why did most of the Android manufacturers jump on the notch bandwagon?

Hint: It bothers people less than you think it does.

jay · Oct 22, 2018

I got off the iPhone train a few months ago because I can't justify the prices.

Deleted member 1062 · Oct 22, 2018

Oh look an article about softening iPhone demand a week before apple earnings call

Muitnorts · Oct 22, 2018

It makes sense really. The X design is what I imagine they'll stick with for a while, and it's a pretty big change.
I have no interest in upgrading from my X for another few years though. I feel like we've hit the point where phones are powerful enough and functional enough that you only upgrade when your old one stops working.

Edit: Obviously that doesn't mean iPhones will stop selling or anything, it's just less exciting to google and talk about now that we pretty much know what the phone will be each year.

The Grizz · Oct 22, 2018

The number of iPhone X/XS Max's I saw Sunday at a bougie apple orchard could fund a small country for a year. I saw maybe 1-2 Android phones. I think it all depends on the market you're in, but iPhones are alive and well where I'm from.

The Grizz · Oct 22, 2018

mescalineeyes said:
As someone who went from an X to an XS Max I can tell you that lack of enthusiasm doesn't even describe what I'm feeling.
Am I glad I have a bigger phone now? I guess.
Still never nice to spend 1300 euros.
Super meh cycle for me, Camera non-withstanding.

That's the exact response I had. Yeah, bigger phone, but what's the extra space used for? You still can't multi task/split screen. Trying out the Pixel 3 now and am in love. Such a breath of fresh air while still feeling like an iPhone, so it's not too overwhelming.

shadowsdarknes · Oct 22, 2018

Ive got the iPhone 8 and am extremely happy. Maybe Ill do the XR3 when it comes out.

TI92 · Oct 22, 2018

Kotze282 said:
Get rid of the notch, put the selfie cam behind the screen or on a thing that slides out, include an in-screen fingerprint sensor, call it the iPhone Ultra, watch consumer interest skyrocket.

(Seriously, why is it that neither Apple nor Google have a device with this innovations when they have all that money while smaller manufacturers already ship devices that have stuff like that? Are they really saving innovations for the future?)

Samsung just patented a full.screen finger reader today lol

darkwing · Oct 22, 2018

Uno Venova said:
Don't they break records in sales year after year?

yup, they will still make bank

mescalineeyes · Oct 22, 2018

The Grizz said:
That's the exact response I had. Yeah, bigger phone, but what's the extra space used for? You still can't multi task/split screen. Trying out the Pixel 3 now and am in love. Such a breath of fresh air while still feeling like an iPhone, so it's not too overwhelming.

Most apps I use aren't even optimized yet. WhatsApp shipped their Xs max update today. Messenger and Facebook are still not updated.
This is the first time where I'm seriously thinking apple is slipping a bit.

That said if you're coming from an iPhone 7 the Xs phones will still wow you.

TI92 · Oct 22, 2018

lunarworks said:
I've been expecting this kind of plateau for a few years now. It's so hard to wow people with mature technology. When they finally figure out how to make a hybrid device that's "magical", that may be the next big jump.

If the notch bothered people so much, why did most of the Android manufacturers jump on the notch bandwagon?

Hint: It bothers people less than you think it does.

I mean tbf the notch started on Android with essential

TheBeardedOne · Oct 22, 2018

What a surprise. They're just minor innovations for boatloads of money.

My iPhone SE still does most of the things the new ones do. I don't feel the urge to spend $1000-2000 to upgrade for no good reason.

TI92 · Oct 22, 2018

TheBeardedOne said:
What a surprise. They're just minor innovations for boatloads of money.

My iPhone SE still does most of the things the new ones do. I don't feel the urge to spend $1000-2000 to upgrade for no good reason.

Yep, the CPU upgrades haven't even transferred into real life differences. I brought this up in the new a12 thread but certain people couldn't believe it.

BlastProcessing · Oct 22, 2018

Kuo: iPhone XR Pre-Order Demand Over First Weekend Exceeded That of iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus

iPhone XR pre-order demand in the first three days of the device's availability was "better than that" of the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus during the same period last year, according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

In a research note obtained by MacRumors, Kuo said that although pre-order demand immediately after launch has been lower for the iPhone XR versus the flagship iPhone XSmodels, overall iPhone XR shipment momentum is "more stable" because it will drive more customers to upgrade than the iPhone 8 series over time.

Kuo added that iPhone XR shipping estimates on Apple.com (many models remain available for launch day delivery on Friday) do not indicate exact demand, as the type of customers interested in the device are more general users, with many ordering through carriers to take advantage of promotions.

An excerpt from Kuo's research note with TF International Securities: We are not surprised that XR's initial delivery times are shorter than those of the iPhone XS series after pre-order open given that XS and XR have different target customers. The former's target customers are Apple fans, who snap up new models rapidly after the pre-order open. The latter's are general users who are used to operating iOS with characteristics including favoring the Apple brand, limited budget, or no urgent replacement demand. Some other analysts had expressed concerns that the iPhone XR 's strong availability implied weak sales of the $749 handset.

Kuo already predicted that iPhone XR demand would be higher than that for the iPhone 8 series last year in a research note shared last week. He also increased his iPhone XR shipment forecast to 36 to 38 million units in the fourth quarter of 2018, up 10 percent from his original estimate of 33 to 35 million units.

Two different analysts, two different perspectives. I think Kuo's analysis stands to reason, the XR is a much better phone than the 8 and 8 Plus it replaces. It shouldn't be a surprise that it will sell better. At some point the iPhone market will mature, but I don't think we have much evidence that we are there yet.

Dennis8K · Oct 22, 2018

There is a new iPhone?

Cool I guess but there will be a newer one next year and my current one does everything I need already.

Punjabi_Hitman · Oct 22, 2018

Consumerism lol. The fact that businesses need to make millions of people spend $800 every year to stay a float. No wonder the planet is fucked.

Anthony Hopkins · Oct 22, 2018

Dennis8K said:
There is a new iPhone?

Cool I guess but there will be a newer one next year and my current one does everything I need already.

Yep phones are getting diminishing returns.
Phone companies make batteries non replaceable though so when your battery starts losing its capcity after 20 months you are forced to get a new one.

TI92 · Oct 22, 2018

BlastProcessing said:
Kuo: iPhone XR Pre-Order Demand Over First Weekend Exceeded That of iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus

Two different analysts, two different perspectives. I think Kuo's analysis stands to reason, the XR is a much better phone than the 8 and 8 Plus it replaces. It shouldn't be a surprise that it will sell better. At some point the iPhone market will mature, but I don't think we have much evidence that we are there yet.

Hopefully we get some real numbers soon

Souless_PJ · Oct 22, 2018

TI92 said:
Hopefully we get some real numbers soon

Quarterly earnings report is on the 1st November

Hogger · Oct 22, 2018

Vonnegut said:
I cannot afford a smartphone that costs $1,200. Technically, I can afford it, but it isn't a wise use of my money. That's money that can go toward my savings, and I can plan for more prudent purchases, such as putting down money for a house or repairing my vehicle.

My iPhone 6 does everything I need it to. I use it to surf the web, read and reply to emails, make phone calls, text people, use certain social media apps, and check the time.

What does the iPhone 10 do that makes it worth $1,200. Higher quality screen? Higher megapixel camera? Faster response rate? That's all nice. But it would be very immature of me to shell out that much money for something that is marginally better at doing things that aren't even necessities for living.

I want to bottle this post up and sprinkle it over the youth like pixie dust.

DrEvil · Oct 23, 2018

This has been my upgrade cycle:

iPhone 2G (original)
iPhone 3G (hand-me-down)
iPhone 4 (bought used)
iPhone 5 (bought new)
iPhone 7 (bought new)

I've yet to upgrade beyond that.. will likely jump at the 11.

I've never done an S revision, and my upgrade cycle at this point, ever since the 5, is essentially once every four years.

I also buy my phones outright so I'm not tied to a contract, so I'm usually good until my Applecare+ runs out plus a year.

Citi analysts: consumer interest in new iPhone models slowing due to innovation slowdown& saturation

How is your friend groups excitement?

Very excited about XR & XS

Not excited at all

Not sure

Meh

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