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September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I didnt say that the game wont sell. Im just saying that I dont think it will move as much hardware as some guys here think it will.
But again, I hope Im wrong.
I didn't say that you said that the game wont sell I was just giving my general opinion on this.
Regardless of whether it'll move hardware or not, it will be very difficult to know for sure.
January will have December's momentum to carry it, hardware sales will be great.
January will have December's momentum to carry it, hardware sales will be great.
Happily dying since 1977 (with the exception on 1983 of course, when they almost did actually die).
Mat, what consequences do you expect from this insanely packed Q4 ?
Will consummers be more undecided before buying a game Day One and will wait for BF ? Are publishers going to be very pice-aggressive to gain visibility ?
Overall, is this historical Q4 going to be packed with underperformers (too much games catering to the same audience) ?
Consequences? I expect sales to be up significantly YoY and multiple games to set sales records. More games = more sales. The market has proven again and again that it's not zero sum, and the more big games are released the more overall money is spent.
There will be winners and losers, as there are always winners and losers.
I totally agree that the market will a significantly up, that's why I mentionned a historical quarter.
But I don't know whether it is RDR2 or not but I am under the impression that sales should have been stronger for the recently released titles.
- Odyssey launched after the critically acclaimed Origins and was praised by the critics. However, it opened lower than Origins a year before.
- Black Ops is the strongest brand in the CoD ecosystem. BOPS IIII had a great demo, and Blackout did quite an impression. Critics were great too but it is opening below WWII.
I could be because of the change in release window, but wern't you expecting more from these two games ?
I think sales this year will be even more concentrated around Black Friday because of that.
Benji and others are guessing they will miss their target by only 1-2 million...18-19 million for a year is still fantastic and doesn't require a price cut lol
That already is the abbreviated form.
The full title is NSMBU+NSLU(DX)
I cant comment on individual title performance prior to data release, and I don't know how any of the current PR statements were derived.
However, I'm not particularly concerned when it comes to the number of releases this year. Quality, marketing support and consumer response per individual title will more likely determine success or disappointment.
Day 1 also means less now than it ever has when it comes to game performance. A great or bad launch doesn't guarantee similar success over the life of product anymore.
So all sales data this time of year is quite noisy with a small sample too. Makes it impossible to point the finger at precise reasons for performance in a strong majority of cases.
However, I'm not particularly concerned when it comes to the number of releases this year. Quality, marketing support and consumer response per individual title will more likely determine success or disappointment.
Day 1 also means less now than it ever has when it comes to game performance. A great or bad launch doesn't guarantee similar success over the life of product anymore.
So all sales data this time of year is quite noisy with a small sample too. Makes it impossible to point the finger at precise reasons for performance in a strong majority of cases.
Oh mang . I thought you were supposed to be good at knowing what slavesnyder thinks.
Good, glad to see the monthly NPD game sales ranking fetish a thing of the past.
This has ever happened, at least limiting the phenomenon to games that have a retail presence. Many huge IPs were sleeper hits and many games that did exceptionally well during the launch period died off pretty quickly.
dear mat's boss,
please don't be angry at him. he did not mean that npd data is currently less valuable for analysis and predictions. we all know that your packages are still unmatched in relevance and worth the purchase.
please don't send him to the basement archive to file copies of old documents.
best regards
your
reset era npd sales thread
please don't be angry at him. he did not mean that npd data is currently less valuable for analysis and predictions. we all know that your packages are still unmatched in relevance and worth the purchase.
please don't send him to the basement archive to file copies of old documents.
best regards
your
reset era npd sales thread
Why ?
Selling bad in your first month is still not good even more so depending on the type of game.
Yes you can recover but you still making less revenue\profit .
I mean, common sense says doing poor initially is not a good thing. All Matt is saying is that a bad showing at the start doesn't necessarily speak to how a game will perform over time - it could get worse or better. Who knows.
Either way, you very obviously want to start good rather than bad.
Either way, you very obviously want to start good rather than bad.
I dunno...
I kind of side with Matt in this one.
Indicating that a particular game is the 7th best selling game in the US during the month of May...is pointless and doesn't mean much.
I'm proud of NPD coming around and finally admitting this publicly through its social media representatives
Mat, please tell me Shadow of the Tomb Raider is doing well. I would hate to see a game like that disappear into oblivion.
There is nothing like it in the market and the game deserves better.
Yeah, wasn't it a partial report this week and then a full report next week? Or something like that?
We only get some data from partial report (hardware and physical sw) if someone leaks it as it's not public.
Ah, you're right. I forgot about that.
I suddenly have a taste for some bacon...
I can see how first month sells arent a great indicator good or bad anymore.
Look at Sea of thieves and state of decay 2 for example. Both were number 1 their release month then pretty much disappeared.
Look at Sea of thieves and state of decay 2 for example. Both were number 1 their release month then pretty much disappeared.
Ok so what were our numbers for PS4 and Switch.
Seeing Spider-Man kill it and SMP top 3 physical in like 2 days is impressive.
Seeing Spider-Man kill it and SMP top 3 physical in like 2 days is impressive.
Spider-Man crushing NBA 2K19 looks like a giga-massive performance, boi. Plus Benji did say the digital adoption was huge for Spider-Man when the Pork information is only about physical.
Also, even a bad October should not be enough to drag the PS4 down year on year next month I suppose.
Also, even a bad October should not be enough to drag the PS4 down year on year next month I suppose.
Yep 2K is a huge game, if Spidey crushed it, that's huge numbers.
I think PS4 did about 426k since wasn't it around 300k last September pretty great numbers?
Switch should be around 260k so ok performance
Switch should be around 260k so ok performance
I don't exactly have accurate numbers for last year, but I believe that puts the PS4 at 425-430k.
The real MVP.
Tomb raider include digital as well. That is not good.
Using the #1 September prediction as a base:
We have :
[NSW] 257k-269k
[PS4] 419k-438k
[X1] 175k-183k
Depending on which system I am starting on the calculations. Regardless, it is a huge month for the PS4 thanks to Spiderman.
[NSW] 320k
[PS4] 300k
[XB1] 180k
[PS4] 300k
[XB1] 180k
We have :
[NSW] 257k-269k
[PS4] 419k-438k
[X1] 175k-183k
Depending on which system I am starting on the calculations. Regardless, it is a huge month for the PS4 thanks to Spiderman.
It released the same day as SMP : October 5th. The track period ends October 6th.
Heck, AC even had additionnal days with the Deluxe editions.
PS4 yay
Even the % being expected it is nice to have them.
Near 500k in a month is always good.
No. Digital is included (well not for SMP as it's Nintendo title) when we get the full report next week.