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September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Yeah but don't worry as soon as it misses big numbers it will turn out to be a spin off faster than the speed of Deoxys-S.
Lower than OR/AS higher than US/UM. So between 8m-14m WW.That's my guess.
I can't see it selling less than that being the "first" Pokémon game available to Switch owners. I also think it's not casual enough to attract the mobile crowd (60 bucks game + 300 bucks console is way too steep for that audience) and too casual to attract gamers, so I don't expect it to sell the usual crazy Pokémon numbers.
And frankly I think that the negative reactions online are more than a "vocal minority", because all I'm reading on my social accounts in Pokémon groups is either negative reactions or a complete lack of reactions.
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Only cause I tried to think "what would slavesnyder say here?"
In an ideal world mods would stop/ban people that keep dogpiling on someone's opinion, as wrong as it was, especially when said dogpiling occures like weeks/months after the post.
oh yeah, easily. Even if it sells poorly for Pokemon standards, it'll be insanely good for "normal" standards
Sorry to change the subject from Niche-Man, but what are folks on here expecting from all three manufactures with regards to seasonal discounts?
If I remember correctly, the Xbox One S was $199 for about five weeks from late November to Christmas, whereas the PlayStation 4 was only $249 for about ten days (correct me if I am wrong) then the Star Wars Battlefront II PS4 Pro bundle was $349 for a week.
I do recall a standalone PlayStation 4 being $200 however, they virtually sold out within a day despite the deal being available over Black Friday and Cyber Monday!
I can see Microsoft doing the same deal(s) ~ $199 for Xbox One S with Assassin's Creed Odyssey, Battlefield V, Forza Horizon 4 or Shadow of the Tomb Raider whilst the PlayStation 4 goes for $249 with a bundled copy of Black Ops 4, Red Dead Redemption 2 or Spider-Man.
The lure of the latter three games may prove to be good enough incentive to see a $50 gap not being all that compelling for some folks.
As for the Switch, goodness knows! I just hope they don't plan to stick with those $359.99 bundles all the way through the holiday season...
If I remember correctly, the Xbox One S was $199 for about five weeks from late November to Christmas, whereas the PlayStation 4 was only $249 for about ten days (correct me if I am wrong) then the Star Wars Battlefront II PS4 Pro bundle was $349 for a week.
I do recall a standalone PlayStation 4 being $200 however, they virtually sold out within a day despite the deal being available over Black Friday and Cyber Monday!
I can see Microsoft doing the same deal(s) ~ $199 for Xbox One S with Assassin's Creed Odyssey, Battlefield V, Forza Horizon 4 or Shadow of the Tomb Raider whilst the PlayStation 4 goes for $249 with a bundled copy of Black Ops 4, Red Dead Redemption 2 or Spider-Man.
The lure of the latter three games may prove to be good enough incentive to see a $50 gap not being all that compelling for some folks.
As for the Switch, goodness knows! I just hope they don't plan to stick with those $359.99 bundles all the way through the holiday season...
If you are lucky enough they will give you a free pouch with every Switch sold otherwise that price will persist throughout the holiday season I am afraid. The only thing I can see happen is a Switch + free game bundle for Black Friday (Mario Kart or BotW).
why is people so desperate for a Switch price cut?? how long into their life spam did PS4 and XBONE started to slash the numbers??
xbox will be 199 plus more than 100 free games*
*for the duration of 6 months through game pass
I think your misreading why price is being brought up. It's in relation to Nintendo's forecast for the Switch. Benji and others mentioned they're not confident in Nintendo hitting their target without a price drop.
The PlayStation 4? Took nearly two years to go down to $349.
The Xbox One? About five months after it was launched, sans Kinect.
I don't think anybody is desperate for the Switch to cut its price, just that the known bundles are quite expensive and not very family friendly (cost wise) for Christmas.
A standalone Switch for $249 would be fantastic!
Ooh, think of all those delicious MAUs!
is on the same line tho, how long before PS4/ Xbox started to do time price cuts to create sales spikes? switch so far been 1:1 to last year. (or like 1-2% down) october will likely be lower compared to last year cause Mario O. but that carried switch for 6 months.
on this year, we have pokemon LG (gamble card) and Smash (it will sell, no questions asked), also arent there like 4 bundles hitting in early November?
Plus, correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't every single Wii U rerelease on Switch outperformed its Wii U counterpart? I don't know what affect it will have on hardware, but software-wise it should be very successful. It only took Mario Party 8 Deluxe like a year to outsell the original release. In just 14 months it was at 123% of the sales of the original. If NSMBU DX sees similar performance to Mario Kart, relative to the Wii U release, it would be sitting at 7 million after just 14 months on the market. Maybe alone it won't draw anyone in, but I can see it being an attractive title to a more casual audience, especially when combined with the more casual Let's Go titles and the recent Mario Party release . . . along with other titles such as Kirby, Labo, and Mario Tennis.
Hmm I dont know, I am quite confident in that it will outsell their Wii U counterpart though
We know this happend:
MK8DX > MK8
DKCTFDX > DKCTF
Pokken Tournament DX > Pokken Tournament
Bayonetta 2 [NSW] > Bayonetta 2
These are uncertain:
Hyrule Warriors ?
Captain Toad ?
I feel Captain toad is quite likely to have passed it's Wii U counterpart but not sure with HW.. it did afterall sell 1M copies on the Wii U and I dont think the NSW version is there. At least not yet.
Every NSMBU DX potential buyer already have a Switch by now.
It will sell a lot, but will it move the hardware sales?
It will sell a lot, but will it move the hardware sales?
if we learned something by Switch and PS4 (lately) is that "everyone that wants X already have Y" seems to be a fallacy more often than not
Dont get me wrong, I hope you're right.
But I dont think so.
By lately i mean the month of October.
And spiderman should have great legs from what ive seen.
I dunno, I think on its own it doesn't have a lot of power to push hardware, but I think when combined with other games they can use it as leverage to appeal to a more casual demographic that's familiar with their IPs. I think it will have some sort of impact, but moreso because it's an important piece of the Switch's portfolio of games. It'll be tough to judge though because it's not the type of thing that's going to lead people to rush out to buy the console right away, any impact will be a slow burn.
It seems to me Nintendo's strategy this year was to appeal to the more casual, wider demographic, they're bringing out a lot of largely simple, but immediately recognizable and well liked games. 2D Mario, Donkey Kong, Kirby, Mario Party, Labo, Mario Tennis, more casual Pokemon, and Yoshi (which was pushed to next year).
Sooo, Benji, about that PS4 first-party exclusive that is left to be discovered... <3
I've read this one before, only it featured MK8 and the WiiU.
Don't worry, there's still plenty of stuff for us to get angry about! ;)
I'm interested to see NSMBU performance
It's a much older port relative to just about every other first party game that's released. It will be over 6 years by the time the game releases
I'm very surprised they didn't go with Mario Maker for that slot. I still see people playing Mario Maker on YouTube to this day.
It's a much older port relative to just about every other first party game that's released. It will be over 6 years by the time the game releases
I'm very surprised they didn't go with Mario Maker for that slot. I still see people playing Mario Maker on YouTube to this day.
Hmm, does that mean you are seeing strong demand for NSMBUDX or did I miss your point?
Mario Maker has already been ported to the 3DS. The sequel should come relatively soon now.
tbh it'd be hard to not foresee good numbers for nsmbu considering...it's nsmb and on switch now
think he's just saying not every 2D Mario fan already has a switch.
I mean why would they?
Sony shipped 17.7 mill PS4s its second (full) fiscal year. I think if Switch can come in above 18 mill shipped, they're in good shape.
20 mill probably won't happen, but ultimately I don't think that's the worst thing in the world. It gives Nintendo a little kick in the butt and keeps them on their toes, which is good. And the system is still objectively selling well if its selling around the range of the PS4 at roughly equivalent points in their product cycle.
20 mill probably won't happen, but ultimately I don't think that's the worst thing in the world. It gives Nintendo a little kick in the butt and keeps them on their toes, which is good. And the system is still objectively selling well if its selling around the range of the PS4 at roughly equivalent points in their product cycle.