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Liabe Brave

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Oct 27, 2017
1,672
This feels like the end of the gen for me. When you have so many big games that sell all crazy ( Spiderman, Fifa, Odyssey, Horizon, BLOPS 4, etc ) and hardware are not selling that well ; that means we're in decline.
I'm not surprised that we're starting to see declines. These systems are very old, and I have to imagine they would have been declining a while ago if not for the upgrade consoles.
Feels like as a whole though system aren't moving very much lately.
But there are no declines so far, for either PS4 or Xbox One. The 2018 NPD numbers are the best January-August period that both platforms have ever had. Let me state that again: through August, 2018 is the best year for PS4 sales, and it's the best year for Xbox One sales. Yes, they'd probably both be down if the mid-gen upgrades hadn't been released, but that was the whole point of releasing the mid-gen upgrades. (This is actually one of the most important lessons of sales-era, that subjunctive claims are reversible.)

For PS4 specifically, 2018 isn't just good in comparison to itself. January to August sales are actually the 11th best for any home console. (Exceeded 4 times by PS2, 2 times by 360, and 4 times by Wii.) Of course that's just through August, and Benji is talking about October already. But note that he didn't say that's down massively, just that he finds sales underwhelming so far (before Rockstar's tentpole releases). So let's say PS4 only sells 525k in September and October combined, despite Spider-man and BLOPS IIII and RDR 2. Averaging under 265k/month sounds really disappointing, right? But that still wouldn't be decline for the platform--2018 would remain its best NPD year ever.

Xbox One is also in good shape. It needs ~625k September/October for 2018 to remain its highest year. They achieved that before, in 2015 and 2016. And in 2018 they've spent most of the time up versus the comparative months from those years. The only caveat is that they were down versus 2015/2016 in July and August, perhaps suggesting a diminution of the One X effect.
 

Deader2818

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Oct 25, 2017
714
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I never said there were massive declines. Just lately systems arent moving like they were during the spring/summer.

Honestly some of that likely is due to the fortnite affect wearing off on moving systems.

The switch fortnite bundle hasnt been setting the world on fire for example.
 

bane833

Banned
Nov 3, 2017
4,530
The weak numbers for october don't surprise me. Especially the PS4 needs a permanent pricedrop and Nintendo needs to finally get that software train going. 2018 was just anemic.
 

Deleted member 2785

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What is even happening. Is this thread in some kind of alternate timeline? Is this website some portal to another Earth? Baffling. I'm baffled.
 

Benji

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Of course that's just through August, and Benji is talking about October already. But note that he didn't say that's down massively, just that he finds sales underwhelming so far (before Rockstar's tentpole releases).

Yep. Not trying to say October is going to be horrible. It's just the early part of the month was very slow and I had hoped BO4 would have a better effect on hardware than it has. But there is still RDR2 and the Smash bundle at the end of this month to hopefully accelerate things.

2018 overall has been an incredible year for the industry. 2019 is going to be where things start to look worrying in terms of drops. I suspect next year sees hardware down YoY the majority of the months
 

Benji

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I think some people are just overreacting to "sales have been slow for the month so far".

Yep. I wasnt trying to spread any doom and gloom. The industry is still fantastic this year

Was just saying considering the momentum of this year + COD I had hoped October would be stronger than it's been so far
 

Liabe Brave

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Oct 27, 2017
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I never said there were massive declines. Just lately systems arent moving like they were during the spring/summer.
Assuming by "lately" you mean July and August (since we don't have any more recent numbers yet), it seems pretty clear that's just normal seasonality though, not something special to 2018. PS4's 2018 July/August is lower than 2 of its previous years, and higher than the other 2. Xbox One's 2018 July/August is also lower than 2 predecessors, and higher than the other 2.

It's true that this wasn't as strong as the prior 6 months' performance, but we're going to get September's numbers soon. For PS4 at least, I expect to see the highest September since 2014. And while October may be soft so far, it has a big release still coming that I have end to imagine ends up putting it at least flat to last year. That's all that's needed to make 2018 PS4's best year. Even if it falls a little short of that, doing "nearly best" in the fifth full year would still be pretty good, given since it's only 25% under launch price. PS1 was 67% down at this point in its life, PS2 50% down, PS3 40% down and the only other one still at $300 in absolute terms. (To be fair, you can flip this as I mentioned above, and what I'm saying also means "PS4 sales may not end up the best, because the price hasn't been cut as hard.")
 

MesaEterna

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Oct 28, 2017
906
Without price promotions I don't see how Nintendo can hope to hit their projections.

Pokemon just isnt tracking well. Could mean NOTHING in the end of they can get ahold of a fraction of the people that play Go on their phones but as of now I'm just not seeing any noticeable demand for it

Smash will of course be huge but I'm not sure that's enough
But don't the bundles release around black friday? There's no way they drop to $300 when they already said MSRP is $360
 

Sonicfan059

Member
Mar 4, 2018
3,024
If Sony does a Black Ops 4 bundle this holiday I see them doing really well. Maybe they feel burned by the Infinite Warfare bundle though, that game wasn't a mover as much as they had hoped.
 

Benji

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Oct 25, 2017
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I mean either way September the month this thread is about is amazing

Spidey digital share is fantastic
 
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Benji

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Do you know when/if we'll be getting first month sales PR for it?

We're 1 month + 11 days after release, 2 weeks seems to be the period they need to collect worldwide data, so could be tomorrow/Monday?

Not sure when WW reporting will come through. Hopefully soon

Tuesday NPD thread gonna be a madhouse though
 

Benji

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Why, is there a lot of console war fuel to be had?

At any rate, I predict half the thread mocking that one guy who said Spidey was niche.

Again.

Console wars no (at least there shouldn't be)

More amazement at what Spidey can manage on a single platform mixed with some people still proclaiming they somehow really expected more
 

Toriko

Member
Dec 29, 2017
7,668
Wonder how Spidey's legs are in October and if it is having the same legs as God of War.

Console wars no (at least there shouldn't be)

More amazement at what Spidey can manage on a single platform mixed with some people still proclaiming they somehow really expected more

If Spidey has done better than God of War ( I think God of War did close to 2 mil in April NPD with bundles included) I would be shocked if anyone is upset or thinks it should have done more. Anything above 2 million would be fantastic.
 

Yep

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Dec 14, 2017
531
Benji you don't expect NSMBUD in january to follow the steps of Mario Kart 8? Couldn't that play a role in attaining their target?
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,679
Wonder how Spidey's legs are in October and if it is having the same legs as God of War.



If Spidey has done better than God of War ( I think God of War did close to 2 mil in April NPD with bundles included) I would be shocked if anyone is upset or thinks it should have done more. Anything above 2 million would be fantastic.

Era: "Hold my beer"
 

Benji

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If Spidey has done better than God of War ( I think God of War did close to 2 mil in April NPD with bundles included) I would be shocked if anyone is upset or thinks it should have done more. Anything above 2 million would be fantastic.

I had people mad at me I "overhyped" Spidey performance because it beat the previous record holders performance by "only" 200k in 3 days (when doing 3.3 million on a single platform in 3 days is FUCKING INSANE)

Never underestimate Era's ability for madness
 

Toriko

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Dec 29, 2017
7,668
I had people mad at me I "overhyped" Spidey performance because it beat the previous record holders performance by "only" 200k in 3 days (when doing 3.3 million on a single platform in 3 days is FUCKING INSANE)

Never underestimate Era's ability for madness

Lol true! Would you be able to comment on Spideys legs do far in October? Good, ok, poor?
 

Deleted member 35598

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But there are no declines so far, for either PS4 or Xbox One. The 2018 NPD numbers are the best January-August period that both platforms have ever had. Let me state that again: through August, 2018 is the best year for PS4 sales, and it's the best year for Xbox One sales. Yes, they'd probably both be down if the mid-gen upgrades hadn't been released, but that was the whole point of releasing the mid-gen upgrades. (This is actually one of the most important lessons of sales-era, that subjunctive claims are reversible.)

For PS4 specifically, 2018 isn't just good in comparison to itself. January to August sales are actually the 11th best for any home console. (Exceeded 4 times by PS2, 2 times by 360, and 4 times by Wii.) Of course that's just through August, and Benji is talking about October already. But note that he didn't say that's down massively, just that he finds sales underwhelming so far (before Rockstar's tentpole releases). So let's say PS4 only sells 525k in September and October combined, despite Spider-man and BLOPS IIII and RDR 2. Averaging under 265k/month sounds really disappointing, right? But that still wouldn't be decline for the platform--2018 would remain its best NPD year ever.

Xbox One is also in good shape. It needs ~625k September/October for 2018 to remain its highest year. They achieved that before, in 2015 and 2016. And in 2018 they've spent most of the time up versus the comparative months from those years. The only caveat is that they were down versus 2015/2016 in July and August, perhaps suggesting a diminution of the One X effect.


I have to say you make a very compelling argument. So I have to agree with you.

But most part of the Sales happens during the 3rd quarter right ? So between October and December, the holiday season. So I'll put it that way : if we see a substantial decline from last year during that period despite lower prices and arguably the biggest amount of big AAA games of the gen released in that period ( thanks RDR2 ), I think it could be fair to say that this is a sign of decline. Could it be also the first indication Next Gen is coming sooner rather than later ? I do believe so because you can be sure the decline will be even sharper next year.

However when I say decline that doesn't mean I expect the PS4 to sell 4 million units next fiscal year. It could be 13-15 million in FY20 and then a sudden drop to 8-10 million in FY21. You mentionned the "almighty" PS2 earlier, I think Sony is in a position here where they can manage the best transition to next gen ever ! Yes even better than what they managed to do with the PS2. I see the PS4 still selling substantially well until 2022.
 

Benji

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Why not? Don't 2D Mario games sell well?

For sure. I'm not expecting it to be some sort of poor performer. But I dont expect it to be any sort of heavy hardware mover.

God I'm saying so many thing in this thread tonight. Drinking and posting gonna bite me in the ass when everyone comes back with "Hey your prediction was wrong!"
 

bane833

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Nov 3, 2017
4,530
For sure. I'm not expecting it to be some sort of poor performer. But I dont expect it to be any sort of heavy hardware mover.

God I'm saying so many thing in this thread tonight. Drinking and posting gonna bite me in the ass when everyone comes back with "Hey your prediction was wrong!"
I doubt you're wrong on this. It's a remaster of a pretty boring looking game. It's not going to move a lot of hardware.
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,027
Yeah I dont expect them to drop. I also dont expect Nintendo to hit their forecast

Yeah I think Nintendo was banking a lot on Pokémon let's go and it's simply not going to deliver. I still see this year being a good second year (I think they'll still sell 18+ million) but it makes you wonder how they were so confident to make such a huge forecast.

2019 I think they can smash through the 20 million barrier though.
 

Mbolibombo

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Oct 29, 2017
7,043
Regarding NSMBU DX.

I just wouldnt underestimate it, the first game and it's expansion has sold 5.77M + 3.03M so it's just not another remaster.. It's a huge seller. I'm not expecting it to sell like MK8 either but It would be stupid to lowball it.

It's going to move quite a lot hardware.. how much is another question. But if Nintendo is going to reach their forecast Q3 has to reach some pretty spectacular numbers - 10-11M+ that's for sure.
 

Benji

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Since I've posted a ton in here tonight what's one more eh?

RDR2 pre-orders have hit the nuclear button. If this thing reviews 95+ Meta just say adios to every other game in 2018 in terms of sales
 

Kenzodielocke

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Oct 25, 2017
12,839
Since I've posted a ton in here tonight what's one more eh?

RDR2 pre-orders have hit the nuclear button. If this thing reviews 95+ Meta just say adios to every other game in 2018 in terms of sales
I don't know if reviews will have an impact, it's one day before release. This will do great with or without.
 

bombshell

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Oct 27, 2017
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Saint-14

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Nov 2, 2017
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GOW released on the 20th and Spider-Man released on the 7th. Just from that fact the Spider-Man first month NPD will be bigger.
I'm just basing it on the 3 days numbers but you are right, maybe we'll finally see a +2 million opening for a home console exclusive this gen (there isn't one yet as far as I know?).
 

P-Switch

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Jul 15, 2018
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I am actually impressed by the lack of enthusiasm for Pokemon, it's some UltraSun/Moon levels of not caring by the general audience

Even though Let's Go Pokemon has far less hype on this forum than Octopath Traveler did...and far more stink eye attributed to it...I guarantee it sells way way more :P

The problem for Let's Go isnt a negative or positive reaction

Its......no reaction. As in it has no presence at all in the broad consumers demographics as of now

Eh, doesn't really need to till November rolls around

If Nintendo doesn't push this thing in November/December then I might be concerned.