Why does everyone assume Read Dead Redemption 2 is a guaranteed to have massive sales?

ToddBonzalez said:

I agree. like 80% of the posts here boil down to either. 1.) it's a Rockstar game, so therefore the game will be a hit 2.) GTA V was a hit, so therefore Red Dead will be a hit. 3.) The game had a high budget and took time to develop, so therefore it will be a hit.

I knew what I was getting into when I created this thread, but these arguments don't hold water. Again, I myself think the game will sell well, but the above justifications for this belief aren't compelling to me.

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Yeah, that's fair, there's a lot of "yo it's rockstar" posts that doesn't really have a lot of substance to it. So I'm not reiterating 6 pages of that.

That said, sales thread insiders have been hinting for quite a while that the game preorder sales is already tracking ahead of anything else in this year, save for COD (which it had been neck to neck with) and BLOP4 is enjoying a very good year due to Blackout. That's already a very good sign pointing to the success of the game.

Can it be as leggy as GTAV was? That's pretty much a no, because that's a monster of a game; But my gut feeling says it's something that will sell consistently for a while, if we later on get next gen and PC ports.

The gaming press at first never calls out the faults and gets caught in the hype themselves resulting in critical acclaim, high sales and eventually everybody else realising that rockstar has not made an excellent game in over ten years now. Other companies get similar treatment.

Gaming press are shameless in not biting the hand that feeds them. Free copies, event invites and special perks are too tempting. A well reviewed game results in more clicks, staying on the good side of publisher and the potential of Rockstar deciding to use your score on their marketing material is a massive bonus. If you review too low you become a target of a rabid fanbase who has eaten all the hype cake.

It would be great if companies had to release demos before release so people can try and see if a particular game is something you personally may enjoy.

Most rockstar games are cultural phenomenons, this will be no different.

ToddBonzalez said:

I agree. like 80% of the posts here boil down to either. 1.) it's a Rockstar game, so therefore the game will be a hit 2.) GTA V was a hit, so therefore Red Dead will be a hit. 3.) The game had a high budget and took time to develop, so therefore it will be a hit.

I knew what I was getting into when I created this thread, but these arguments don't hold water. Again, I myself think the game will sell well, but the above justifications for this belief aren't compelling to me.

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But why not? I feel they are plenty enough for someone to think the game will sell well. They dont need to hold water as much since no one is claiming them as "proof" the game will sell well. You originally asked why everyone was so confident this would sell well, developer history and series history are plenty fine for inspiring confidence.

Only thing we have that can be considered "proof" would be that going in to this gaming season, RDR2 was like the only game being reported to be above pre-order expectations with all the other AAA titles heading below. This is more important to the digital vs physical discussion but RDR2 is still driving some hard copies so I would imagine that it will still do gangbusters with digital as well.

This is probably the most open Rockstar has been with one of their games, actually.

I remember when GTAIV was shipping and no one had raw gameplay footage of it.

You're kidding us OP? Game is gonna be massive like the first one.

Well the first Red Dead Redemption sold +14 million and, with many franchises hitting new heights this generation and Red Dead Redemption being more of an established name now, selling above that is pretty likely and would be considered crazy high sales. It won't touch GTA V numbers but ~20 million wouldn't be crazy, especially when the game is inevitably re-released for the PS5 and the XB2

E.T. said:

The gaming press at first never calls out the faults and gets caught in the hype themselves resulting in critical acclaim, high sales and eventually everybody else realising that rockstar has not made an excellent game in over ten years now. Other companies get similar treatment.

Gaming press are shameless in not biting the hand that feeds them. Free copies, event invites and special perks are too tempting. A well reviewed game results in more clicks, staying on the good side of publisher and the potential of Rockstar deciding to use your score on their marketing material is a massive bonus. If you review too low you become a target of a rabid fanbase who has eaten all the hype cake.

It would be great if companies had to release demos before release so people can try and see if a particular game is something you personally may enjoy.

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Does this specifically happen for developers whose games you don't like or does it apply to nearly every major prestige publisher and developer?

I think people are confusing the GTA brand with the Rockstar one. GTA is a household name, not Rockstar. It'll sell well but expecting anywhere near GTAV numbers is crazy talk imo.

SuperFakerBros said:

Well the first Red Dead Redemption sold +14 million and, with many franchises hitting new heights this generation and Red Dead Redemption being more of an established name now, selling above that is pretty likely and would be considered crazy high sales


Does this specifically happen for developers whose games you don't like or does it apply to nearly every major prestige publisher and developer?

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As I indicated, other companies get away with it too.

I think it's going to sell alot of copies, Rockstar always has a good word of mouth and are really good at advertising their games especially thier open world games. Also it's been a long wait from the last Red Dead so it might have that Elder Scrolls effect where people have been waiting along time for the next installment.

Phendrift said:

I agree OP. It will sell well but it's not GTA. It's really underselling the GTA IP to suggest anything by the same developer will have even close to the same amount of success.

Yes Rockstar is well known, but I feel like I'm in crazy town with some people in here suggesting they're like a household name.

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GTA V has sold over 95-100 million copies by itself. Like I'm shocked people don't understand what that means. GTA V alone has outsold entire franchises. You think the next big project from them isn't going to do gangbusters?

E.T. said:

As I indicated, other companies get away with it too.

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Yes and are those specifically companies that make games that you don't like or does it apply to every prestige developer and publisher? Because you can't only apply it when its convenient for you

Bigjig said:

I think people are confusing the GTA brand with the Rockstar one. GTA is a household name, not Rockstar. It'll sell well but expecting anywhere near GTAV numbers is crazy talk imo.

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I don't think anyone is expecting GTA V numbers. Even a quarter of that would be selling extremely well.

I'm honestly surprised because it's not as mainstream as other franchises, but I know it will still sell like no other. Same thing happened with Spiderman, I felt like it was more of a hardcore gamer's game, and not targeted towards casual players. Friends who normally just play NBA and Madden have picked it up and I was surprised, same thing will probably happen here.

The Artisan said:

11 million sold is massive. i don't know what that guy is saying

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You don't know what I'm saying? The studio shut down because 11 million wasn't enough. I don't get why that's hard to understand.

JEFFREY GRUBB said:

You don't know what I'm saying? The studio shut down because 11 million wasn't enough. I don't get why that's hard to understand.

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Because it's not what you said.

Rockstar.
Red dead.
Multiplatform.
Rockstar.

Because my non gamer friends know about it and are buying it.

It carries the 'made by the GTA guys' badge.

ToddBonzalez said:

It's not really a take. Just wondering why people talk about the game's sales like they're already a forgone conclusion.

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I made the effort to think in a single reason that would make this game not to be a massive success and couldnt find it.

Rockstar are the literal kings of this industry

Lowrys said:

Because it's not what you said.

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It actually is what I said. But "massive sales" doesn't have one singular definition. 11 million is massive for some games, but it wasn't massive for Infinite. And it certainly wouldn't be enough for RDR2.

I figured most people on this board would inherently understand that. Games don't spring fully formed out of the ground. Developers create them by pouring money into them. And the more money you spend making it, the more money you have to generate in revenue to make that effort worth it.

So acting like 11 million in sales is always huge doesn't make any sense. It's just a number. And that number doesn't mean anything. You're impressed by it? OK ... tell that to the people who got laid off because they made a game that only sold 11 million copies.

First game was huge, GTAV was a monster that will further push the sales of whatever Rockstar does next, the game is beyond hyped, reviews are probably going to be excellent, and even big games are running away from it (Call Of Duty came out a month earlier than it did every single year for over a decade, Battlefield was pushed back by a month and a half, tons of games being pushed to 2019). To a lesser extent I'd throw in the fact stuff like Westworld is increasing the interest in Western again - but again, this is a minor thing compared to the rest. Everybody including other publishers know this shit will be big, because Rockstar can cater to basically all audiences: those who want meaty single player, those who want insane graphics, those who want incredibly immersive worlds, those who want a lenghty open world, those who want post-launch content and an online plan... there is no way RDR2 won't sell ridiculously well. I suppose it's possible it won't be the biggest seller of the year because monsters like FIFA, Call Of Duty and most importantly PUBG exist, but there is no doubt it will do insanely well. Probably not GTAV numbers, but yeah, this will be big.

Red Dead Redemption II will probably be the best selling game this year. I doubt it will do anywhere near as much as GTAV, but it\s guaranteed to sell alot of units.

It will have massive sales.

Platy said:

Because it is the sequel to a game that early sales number were on the 13 million mark

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15 million.

I bet it will sell more than 15 million but way less than GTAV.

Because it's Rockstar everyone knows their name you'd be surprised. And RDR did good sales wise.

Even if it was a 50% Metacritic it would surpass 8m units.

I have friends getting this game who haven't purchased a game in years. There has been muted advertising because it simply doesn't need it.

This game will sell very very well.

It doesn't need the marketing hype that Spider-man had, you tell the industry that it's the next big rockstar game and it's selling a shed load. Fair play not as much as GTA but it will eclipse everything else.

DrDeckard said:

It doesn't need the marketing hype that Spider-man had, you tell the industry that it's the next big rockstar game and it's selling a shed load. Fair play not as much as GTA but it will eclipse everything else.

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What size shed we talking here, friend?

JEFFREY GRUBB said:

It actually is what I said. But "massive sales" doesn't have one singular definition. 11 million is massive for some games, but it wasn't massive for Infinite. And it certainly wouldn't be enough for RDR2.

I figured most people on this board would inherently understand that. Games don't spring fully formed out of the ground. Developers create them by pouring money into them. And the more money you spend making it, the more money you have to generate in revenue to make that effort worth it.

So acting like 11 million in sales is always huge doesn't make any sense. It's just a number. And that number doesn't mean anything. You're impressed by it? OK ... tell that to the people who got laid off because they made a game that only sold 11 million copies.

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I don't really know what you are on about. Bioshock Infinite sales were pretty good compared the their expectations.

Infinite was by far the best selling Bioshock game.

JEFFREY GRUBB said:

It actually is what I said. But "massive sales" doesn't have one singular definition. 11 million is massive for some games, but it wasn't massive for Infinite. And it certainly wouldn't be enough for RDR2.

I figured most people on this board would inherently understand that. Games don't spring fully formed out of the ground. Developers create them by pouring money into them. And the more money you spend making it, the more money you have to generate in revenue to make that effort worth it.

So acting like 11 million in sales is always huge doesn't make any sense. It's just a number. And that number doesn't mean anything. You're impressed by it? OK ... tell that to the people who got laid off because they made a game that only sold 11 million copies.

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I was referring to your original post, which is the post the person you quoted was quoting. That original post simply suggested that Bioshock Infinite didn't have massive sales. Which is wrong, because it did.

Whether or not it underperformed is a separate question, and one not addressed in your original post.

Rockstar isn't about to go under, so I'm not sure why you brought all this into the thread.

NinjaScooter said:

What size shed we talking here, friend?

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One that Elon Musk has created, the size of a small continent. :)

I partially agree with OP in that I don't think red dead will sell millions of copies. Instead, I think it'll sell, billions, of copies. *cue doctor evil music*

I think it's probably due to the fact that it's the first title coming after the massive success of GTA V. And the first one was also a huge success back In 2010

Lowrys said:

I was referring to your original post, which is the post the person you quoted was quoting. That original post simply suggested that Bioshock Infinite didn't have massive sales. Which is wrong, because it did.

Whether or not it underperformed is a separate question, and one not addressed in your original post.

Rockstar isn't about to go under, so I'm not sure why you brought all this into the thread.

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It's like you didn't read what I wrote because I address everything you said here.

LuisGarcia said:

I don't really know what you are on about. Bioshock Infinite sales were pretty good compared the their expectations.

Infinite was by far the best selling Bioshock game.

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Lower-than-expected sales is one of the reasons the studio shut down. What are you talking about?

This game will sell 20-30 million lifetime guaranteed at the very LEAST.

Like many have said before, it's a Rockstar game. Their games basically sell themselves.

JEFFREY GRUBB said:

It's like you didn't read what I wrote because I address everything you said here.

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I read it. Unless you're suggesting that Rockstar might get closed if RDR2 doesn't sell enough copies, I don't understand how Infinite is relevant here.

Paxton25 said:

Most rockstar games are cultural phenomenons, this will be no different.

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their GTA games are but i wouldn't call any non-GTA game from Rockstar a cultural phenomenon.

The gaming industry has reached a point of singularity where only a few games can have MASSIVE manpower working on them.

Those games pretty much cannot sell poorly. People know they have to buy, it's the only way they're getting a game of that scope.

If you want something else "like RDR 2" Well, there is nothing else like it, because nobody can dedicate 1000 employees for ten years to a project except rockstar. Therefore you will buy it.

RDR is in that group. Cyberpunk 2077 is another.

I guess you could call certain games too big to fail.

My must buys are games that I know just from their title that I will buy and I have 0 doubt they will be commercial hits.
This gen I had in that category Phantom Pain, Witcher 3, God of War, Red Dead 2 and Cyberpunk coming up.
I don't even watch anything past the reveal trailer for this category, makes playing them even sweeter.

So yeah, it will be a huge success, my track record is 100% so far :)

Lowrys said:

I read it. Unless you're suggesting that Rockstar might get closed if RDR2 doesn't sell enough copies, I don't understand how Infinite is relevant here.

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Obviously you don't.

OK.

Rockstar has other games. GTA Online virtually guarantees its financial stability for the foreseeable future. RDR2 could sell 8 copies, and Rockstar would be able to weather that.

That does not mean that RDR2 would be a success or a positive return on investment if it sold only 8 copies. Shutting down a studio does not equal the only failure state. The game has to reach a certain threshold to justify a RDR3, for example. Or to justify any non-GTA Online product.

For RDR2, that threshold is really high.

It's guaranteed to be a sales juggernaut

Word of mouth will sell millions, Rockstar dont even need marketing.

JEFFREY GRUBB said:

Obviously you don't.

OK.

Rockstar has other games. GTA Online virtually guarantees its financial stability for the foreseeable future. RDR2 could sell 8 copies, and Rockstar would be able to weather that.

That does not mean that RDR2 would be a success or a positive return on investment if it sold only 8 copies. Shutting down a studio does not equal the only failure state. The game has to reach a certain threshold to justify a RDR3, for example. Or to justify any non-GTA Online product.

For RDR2, that threshold is really high.

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Yes, all that is true. But why is Infinite relevant to any of this? That's what I don't understand. What's your point?

This thread is about the reasons that people are assuming RDR2 will have massive sales.

Game will be a huge success and (hopefuly) a better MP experience than the shit GTA Online will make it even better. Also yes GTA is a name to say, but everyone I know says "Rockstars new game!" and nothing else.

ToddBonzalez said:

The game looks fantastic, but personally I feel like the marketing has been a little...muted? Certainly it doesn't feel like it received the marketing blitz that, say, Spider-Man received leading up to its release. A GTA game will sell on name alone, but does the Red Dead brand have that sort of recognition with the average consumer? Redemption 1 came out 8 years ago, so the series hasn't exactly been in the public consciousness in a while.

Just to be clear- I don't think the game will flop. Far from it. However people talk about it like it's guaranteed to be a sales juggernaut and I'm not sure where the confidence is coming from. Does the average joe care that much about the Rockstar pedigree?

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When was the last time a Rockstar game didn't have massive sales?